Evolutionary model type selection for global surrogate modeling

Due to the scale and computational complexity of currently used simulation codes, global surrogate (metamodels) models have become indispensable tools for exploring and understanding the design space. Due to their compact formulation they are cheap to evaluate and thus readily facilitate visualization, design space exploration, rapid prototyping, and sensitivity analysis. They can also be used as accurate building blocks in design packages or larger simulation environments. Consequently, there is great interest in techniques that facilitate the construction of such approximation models while minimizing the computational cost and maximizing model accuracy. Many surrogate model types exist ( Support Vector Machines, Kriging, Neural Networks, etc.) but no type is optimal in all circumstances. Nor is there any hard theory available that can help make this choice. In this paper we present an automatic approach to the model type selection problem. We describe an adaptive global surrogate modeling environment with adaptive sampling, driven by speciated evolution. Different model types are evolved cooperatively using a Genetic Algorithm ( heterogeneous evolution) and compete to approximate the iteratively selected data. In this way the optimal model type and complexity for a given data set or simulation code can be dynamically determined. Its utility and performance is demonstrated on a number of problems where it outperforms traditional sequential execution of each model type

Learning the structure of Bayesian Networks: A quantitative assessment of the effect of different algorithmic schemes

One of the most challenging tasks when adopting Bayesian Networks (BNs) is the one of learning their structure from data. This task is complicated by the huge search space of possible solutions, and by the fact that the problem is NP-hard. Hence, full enumeration of all the possible solutions is not always feasible and approximations are often required. However, to the best of our knowledge, a quantitative analysis of the performance and characteristics of the different heuristics to solve this problem has never been done before. For this reason, in this work, we provide a detailed comparison of many different state-of-the-arts methods for structural learning on simulated data considering both BNs with discrete and continuous variables, and with different rates of noise in the data. In particular, we investigate the performance of different widespread scores and algorithmic approaches proposed for the inference and the statistical pitfalls within them

Advancing Approaches to the Evaluation of Regional Scale Photochemical Air Quality Modeling Systems

Report on the first AQMEII workshop held in Stresa in May 2009JRC.DDG.H.4-Transport and air qualit

Developing new tools to address the impact of climate change on the evolutionary and distributional history in plant lineages

Tesis doctoral inédita leída en la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Biología. Fecha de lectura: 28-02-202

Bayesian opponent modeling in adversarial game environments.

This thesis investigates the use of Bayesian analysis upon an opponent¿s behaviour in order to determine the desired goals or strategy used by a given adversary. A terrain analysis approach utilising the A* algorithm is investigated, where a probability distribution between discrete behaviours of an opponent relative to a set of possible goals is generated. The Bayesian analysis of agent behaviour accurately determines the intended goal of an opponent agent, even when the opponent¿s actions are altered randomly. The environment of Poker is introduced and abstracted for ease of analysis. Bayes¿ theorem is used to generate an effective opponent model, categorizing behaviour according to its similarity with known styles of opponent. The accuracy of Bayes¿ rule yields a notable improvement in the performance of an agent once an opponent¿s style is understood. A hybrid of the Bayesian style predictor and a neuroevolutionary approach is shown to lead to effective dynamic play, in comparison to agents that do not use an opponent model. The use of recurrence in evolved networks is also shown to improve the performance and generalizability of an agent in a multiplayer environment. These strategies are then employed in the full-scale environment of Texas Hold¿em, where a betting round-based approach proves useful in determining and counteracting an opponent¿s play. It is shown that the use of opponent models, with the adaptive benefits of neuroevolution aid the performance of an agent, even when the behaviour of an opponent does not necessarily fit within the strict definitions of opponent ¿style¿.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC

Individual and ensemble functional link neural networks for data classification

This study investigated the Functional Link Neural Network (FLNN) for solving data classification problems. FLNN based models were developed using evolutionary methods as well as ensemble methods. The outcomes of the experiments covering benchmark classification problems, positively demonstrated the efficacy of the proposed models for undertaking data classification problems