The role of learning on industrial simulation design and analysis

The capability of modeling real-world system operations has turned simulation into an indispensable problemsolving methodology for business system design and analysis. Today, simulation supports decisions ranging from sourcing to operations to finance, starting at the strategic level and proceeding towards tactical and operational levels of decision-making. In such a dynamic setting, the practice of simulation goes beyond being a static problem-solving exercise and requires integration with learning. This article discusses the role of learning in simulation design and analysis motivated by the needs of industrial problems and describes how selected tools of statistical learning can be utilized for this purpose

Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.portfolio analysis, credit risk, weighting, scoring, data mining, sensitivity analyses, decision support, Bayesian networks, BASEL II

A Survey on Usage and Diffusion of Project Risk Management Techniques and Software Tools in the Construction Industry

The area of Project Risk Management (PRM) has been extensively researched, and the utilization of various tools and techniques for managing risk in several industries has been sufficiently reported. Formal and systematic PRM practices have been made available for the construction industry. Based on such body of knowledge, this paper tries to find out the global picture of PRM practices and approaches with the help of a survey to look into the usage of PRM techniques and diffusion of software tools, their level of maturity, and their usefulness in the construction sector. Results show that, despite existing techniques and tools, their usage is limited: software tools are used only by a minority of respondents and their cost is one of the largest hurdles in adoption. Finally, the paper provides some important guidelines for future research regarding quantitative risk analysis techniques and suggestions for PRM software tools development and improvemen

Influence of respiratory motion management technique on radiation pneumonitis risk with robotic stereotactic body radiation therapy.

Purpose/objectivesFor lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), real-time tumor tracking (RTT) allows for less radiation to normal lung compared to the internal target volume (ITV) method of respiratory motion management. To quantify the advantage of RTT, we examined the difference in radiation pneumonitis risk between these two techniques using a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model.Materials/method20 lung SBRT treatment plans using RTT were replanned with the ITV method using respiratory motion information from a 4D-CT image acquired at the original simulation. Risk of symptomatic radiation pneumonitis was calculated for both plans using a previously derived NTCP model. Features available before treatment planning that identified significant increase in NTCP with ITV versus RTT plans were identified.ResultsPrescription dose to the planning target volume (PTV) ranged from 22 to 60 Gy in 1-5 fractions. The median tumor diameter was 3.5 cm (range 2.1-5.5 cm) with a median volume of 14.5 mL (range 3.6-59.9 mL). The median increase in PTV volume from RTT to ITV plans was 17.1 mL (range 3.5-72.4 mL), and the median increase in PTV/lung volume ratio was 0.46% (range 0.13-1.98%). Mean lung dose and percentage dose-volumes were significantly higher in ITV plans at all levels tested. The median NTCP was 5.1% for RTT plans and 8.9% for ITV plans, with a median difference of 1.9% (range 0.4-25.5%, pairwise P < 0.001). Increases in NTCP between plans were best predicted by increases in PTV volume and PTV/lung volume ratio.ConclusionsThe use of RTT decreased the risk of radiation pneumonitis in all plans. However, for most patients the risk reduction was minimal. Differences in plan PTV volume and PTV/lung volume ratio may identify patients who would benefit from RTT technique before completing treatment planning

The conduct and reporting of mediation analysis in recently published randomized controlled trials : results from a methodological systematic review

Objectives: To describe the methodological characteristics of mediation analyses (MAs) reported in recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and to propose recommendations on the planning, conduct, and reporting of MAs in practice. Study Design and Setting: We conducted a systematic review by searching MEDLINE (January 1, 2017, to December 1, 2018) for all reports of RCTs or secondary analyses of previously published RCTs that reported a MA. Two reviewers independently screened the title, abstracts, and full texts of the identified reports and extracted the data from the 98 eligible studies. Results: MAs were nearly always (96%) based on a traditional mediation approach. Most studies did not report a sample size calculation for the MA (96%) or assess potential treatment-by-mediator interactions (96%). In 53% of studies, mediators and outcomes were simultaneously measured. In 57% of studies, mediator-mediator and mediator-outcome confounders were adjusted for in the analysis, although adjustment was often limited to few potential confounders. About 30% of studies discussed the assumptions underlying the MA. Conclusion: The conduct and reporting of MAs remained quite heterogeneous in practice. Future MAs could benefit from a consensus-based planning, conduct, and reporting guideline for MA

Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand

A technique is proposed for estimating the probability distribution of total network travel time, in the light of normal day-to-day variations in the travel demand matrix over a road traffic network. A solution method is proposed, based on a single run of a standard traffic assignment model, which operates in two stages. In stage one, moments of the total travel time distribution are computed by an analytic method, based on the multivariate moments of the link flow vector. In stage two, a flexible family of density functions is fitted to these moments. It is discussed how the resulting distribution may in practice be used to characterise unreliability. Illustrative numerical tests are reported on a simple network, where the method is seen to provide a means for identifying sensitive or vulnerable links, and for examining the impact on network reliability of changes to link capacities. Computational considerations for large networks, and directions for further research, are discussed