Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Power Grids and Its Wider Implications on National Security

Abstract We discuss our technosocial analytics research and development on predicting and assessing the impact of climate change on U.S. power-grids and the wider implications for national security. The ongoing efforts extend cutting-edge modeling theories derived from climate, energy, social sciences, and national security domains to form a unified system coupled with an interactive visual interface for technosocial analysis. The goal of the system is to create viable future scenarios that address both technical and social factors involved in the model domains. These scenarios enable policymakers to formulate a coherent, unified strategy towards building a safe and secure society. The paper gives an executive summary of our preliminary efforts in the past year and provides a glimpse of our work planned for the second year of a multi-year project

Public perceptions of demand side management and a smarter energy future

Demand side management (DSM) is a key aspect of many future energy system scenarios1,2. DSM refers to a range of technologies and interventions designed to create greater efficiency and flexibility on the demand side of the energy system3. Examples include the provision of more information to users to support efficient behaviour and new ‘smart’ technologies that can be automatically controlled. Key stated outcomes of implementing DSM are benefits for consumers, such as cost savings3, 4 and greater control over energy use. Here, we use results from an online survey to examine public perceptions and acceptability of a range of current DSM possibilities in a representative sample of the British population (N = 2441). We show that, whilst cost is likely to be a significant reason for many people to uptake DSM measures, those concerned about energy costs are actually less likely to accept DSM. Notably, individuals concerned about climate change are more likely to be accepting. A significant proportion of people, particularly those concerned about affordability, indicated unwillingness or concerns about sharing energy data, a necessity for many forms of DSM. We conclude substantial public engagement and further policy development is required for widespread DSM implementation

Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.Energy Access, Power System Planning, Sub-Saharan Africa

Earth Observations and Integrative Models in Support of Food and Water Security

Global food production depends upon many factors that Earth observing satellites routinely measure about water, energy, weather, and ecosystems. Increasingly sophisticated, publicly-available satellite data products can improve efficiencies in resource management and provide earlier indication of environmental disruption. Satellite remote sensing provides a consistent, long-term record that can be used effectively to detect large-scale features over time, such as a developing drought. Accuracy and capabilities have increased along with the range of Earth observations and derived products that can support food security decisions with actionable information. This paper highlights major capabilities facilitated by satellite observations and physical models that have been developed and validated using remotely-sensed observations. Although we primarily focus on variables relevant to agriculture, we also include a brief description of the growing use of Earth observations in support of aquaculture and fisheries

Stand-Alone Direct Current Power Network Based on Photovoltaics and Lithium-Ion Batteries for Reverse Osmosis Desalination Plant

Plummeting reserves and increasing demand of freshwater resources have culminated into a global water crisis. Desalination is a potential solution to mitigate the freshwater shortage. However, the process of desalination is expensive and energy-intensive. Due to the water-energy-climate nexus, there is an urgent need to provide sustainable low-cost electrical power for desalination that has the lowest impact on climate and related ecosystem challenges. For a large-scale reverse osmosis desalination plant, we have proposed the design and analysis of a photovoltaics and battery-based stand-alone direct current power network. The design methodology focusses on appropriate sizing, optimum tilt and temperature compensation techniques based on 10 years of irradiation data for the Carlsbad Desalination Plant in California, USA. A decision-tree approach is employed for ensuring hourly load-generation balance. The power flow analysis evaluates self-sufficient generation even during cloud cover contingencies. The primary goal of the proposed system is to maximize the utilization of generated photovoltaic power and battery energy storage with minimal conversions and transmission losses. The direct current based topology includes high-voltage transmission, on-the-spot local inversion, situational awareness and cyber security features. Lastly, economic feasibility of the proposed system is carried out for a plant lifetime of 30 years. The variable effect of utility-scale battery storage costs for 16–18 h of operation is studied. Our results show that the proposed design will provide low electricity costs ranging from 3.79 to 6.43 ¢/kWh depending on the debt rate. Without employing the concept of baseload electric power, photovoltaics and battery-based direct current power networks for large-scale desalination plants can achieve tremendous energy savings and cost reduction with negligible carbon footprint, thereby providing affordable water for all

Rural Energy Development: Are Mini-grids the solution to East Africa\u27s Energy Crisis

As the population and economies of Sub Saharan Africa continue to grow, the demand for modern energy will correspondingly increase. The current energy policy and limited overall access rate is not prepared for this massive demand increases and presents a major hindrance to country growth potential. This thesis focuses on the countries in East Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia), and compares their current energy policies and renewable energy potential within a historical context of the United States rural electrification of 1930s. It is clear that some progress has been made in plans to address the energy access concerns but there is still some delay in diversifying the energy mix with renewable sources and advancing the use of mini-grids. The use of mini-grids will provide a sustainable solution to the energy crisis by increasing electricity reliability and providing power to areas too remote for grid connection

Wind and solar intermittency and the associated integration challenges : a comprehensive review including the status in the Belgian power system

Renewable Energy Sources (RES) have drawn significant attention in the past years to make the transition towards low carbon emissions. On the one hand, the intermittent nature of RES, resulting in variable power generation, hinders their high-level penetration in the power system. On the other hand, RES can aid not only to supply much more eco-friendly energy but also it allows the power system to enhance its stability by ancillary service provision. This article reviews the challenges related to the most intermittent RES utilised in Belgium, that is, wind energy and solar energy. Additionally, wind speed and solar irradiance variations, which are the cause of wind and solar intermittency, are studied. Then, recent techniques to forecast their changes, and approaches to accommodate or mitigate their impacts on the power system, are discussed. Finally, the latest statistics and future situation of RES in the Belgian power system are evaluated

Bioenergy and Minigrids for Sustainable Human Development

Human-caused climate change and deep disparities in human development imperil a prosperous and just future for our planet and the people who live on it. Transforming our society to mitigate global warming offers an opportunity to rebuild energy systems to the benefit of those who are harmed by global inequality today. I examine this opportunity through the lens of two sustainable energy technologies: bioenergy and miniature electricity grids (minigrids). Bioenergy requires land to produce biomass and is inextricably connected to the surrounding environment, agricultural livelihoods, and food system. I apply data science tools to study aspects of land use and food security that may intersect with increasing bioenergy production. I assess the potential to use over one billion hectares of grazing land more intensively with an empirical yield gap analysis technique called climate binning. To clarify how agricultural and socioeconomic characteristics relate to national food security, I study the relative importance of several drivers using simple linear regressions with cross validation and random sampling techniques. Minigrids can supply clean, reliable electricity to un- and under-served communities, but small and hard-to-predict customer loads hamper their financial viability. To improve predictions of daily electricity demand of prospective customers, I test a data-driven approach using customer demographic surveys and machine learning models. I also investigate opportunities to grow loads by stimulating income-generating uses of minigrid electricity in twelve Nigerian agricultural value chains. I conclude by emphasizing the fundamental complementarity of energy and agriculture as change levers for human development, especially in rural communities with low energy access and high poverty. I also provide recommendations to support the effective use of energy to solve pressing agricultural problems and drive multiplicative human development benefits

Climate Change Impact Assessment for Surface Transportation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska

WA-RD 772.