Adaptive value-at-risk policy optimization: a deep reinforcement learning approach for minimizing the capital charge

In 1995, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision emitted an amendment to the first Basel Accord, allowing financial institutions to develop internal risk models, based on the value-at-risk (VaR), as opposed to using the regulator’s predefined model. From that point onwards, the scientific community has focused its efforts on improving the accuracy of the VaR models to reduce the capital requirements stipulated by the regulatory framework. In contrast, some authors proposed that the key towards disclosure optimization would not lie in improving the existing models, but in manipulating the estimated value. The most recent progress in this field employed dynamic programming (DP), based on Markov decision processes (MDPs), to create a daily report policy. However, the use of dynamic programming carries heavy costs for the solution; not only does the algorithm require an explicit transition probability matrix, the high computational storage requirements and inability to operate in continuous MDPs demand simplifying the problem. The purpose of this work is to introduce deep reinforcement learning as an alternative to solving problems characterized by a complex or continuous MDP. To this end, the author benchmarks the DP generated policy with one generated via proximal policy optimization. In conclusion, and despite the small number of employed learning iterations, the algorithm showcased a strong convergence with the optimal policy, allowing for the methodology to be used on the unrestricted problem, without incurring in simplifications such as action and state discretization.Em 1995 foi emitida uma adenda ao Acordo de Basileia vigente, o Basileia I, que permitiu que as instituições financeiras optassem por desenvolver modelos internos de medição de risco, tendo por base o value-at-risk (VaR), ao invés de recorrer ao modelo estipulado pelo regulador. Desde então, a comunidade científica focou os seus esforços na melhoria da precisão dos modelos de VaR procurando assim reduzir os requisitos de capital definidos na regulamentação. No entanto, alguns autores propuseram que a chave para a optimização do reporte não estaria na melhoria dos modelos existentes, mas na manipulação do valor estimado. O progresso mais recente recorreu ao uso de programação dinâmica (DP), baseada em processos de decisão de Markov (MDP) para atingir este fim, criando uma regra de reporte diária. No entanto, o uso de DP acarreta custos para a solução, uma vez que por um lado, o algoritmo requer uma matriz de probabilidades de transição definida, e por outro, os elevados requisitos de armazenamento computacional e incapacidade de lidar com processos de decisão de Markov (MDP) contínuos, exigem a simplificação do problema em questão. Este trabalho visa introduzir "deep reinforcement learning" como uma alternativa a problemas caracterizados por um MDP contínuo ou complexo. Para o efeito, é realizado um "benchmarking" com a "policy" criada por programação dinâmica, recorrendo ao algoritmo "proximal policy optimization". Em suma, e apesar do reduzido montante de iterações empregue, o algoritmo demonstrou fortes capacidades de convergência com a solução óptima, podendo ser empregue na estimativa do problema sem incorrer em simplificações

A flexible predictive density combination for large financial data sets in regular and crisis periods

A flexible predictive density combination is introduced for large financial data sets, which allows for model set incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures that include learning to allocate the large sets of predictive densities and combination weights to relatively small subsets. Given the representation of the probability model in extended nonlinear state-space form, efficient simulation-based Bayesian inference is proposed using parallel dynamic clustering as well as nonlinear filtering implemented on graphics processing units. The approach is applied to combine predictive densities based on a large number of individual US stock returns of daily observations over a period that includes the Covid-19 crisis period. Evidence on dynamic cluster composition, weight patterns and model set incompleteness gives valuable signals for improved modelling. This enables higher predictive accuracy and better assessment of uncertainty and risk for investment fund management

A survey on financial applications of metaheuristics

Modern heuristics or metaheuristics are optimization algorithms that have been increasingly used during the last decades to support complex decision-making in a number of fields, such as logistics and transportation, telecommunication networks, bioinformatics, finance, and the like. The continuous increase in computing power, together with advancements in metaheuristics frameworks and parallelization strategies, are empowering these types of algorithms as one of the best alternatives to solve rich and real-life combinatorial optimization problems that arise in a number of financial and banking activities. This article reviews some of the works related to the use of metaheuristics in solving both classical and emergent problems in the finance arena. A non-exhaustive list of examples includes rich portfolio optimization, index tracking, enhanced indexation, credit risk, stock investments, financial project scheduling, option pricing, feature selection, bankruptcy and financial distress prediction, and credit risk assessment. This article also discusses some open opportunities for researchers in the field, and forecast the evolution of metaheuristics to include real-life uncertainty conditions into the optimization problems being considered.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (TRA2013-48180-C3-P, TRA2015-71883-REDT), FEDER, and the Universitat Jaume I mobility program (E-2015-36)

Quantum computing for finance

Quantum computers are expected to surpass the computational capabilities of classical computers and have a transformative impact on numerous industry sectors. We present a comprehensive summary of the state of the art of quantum computing for financial applications, with particular emphasis on stochastic modeling, optimization, and machine learning. This Review is aimed at physicists, so it outlines the classical techniques used by the financial industry and discusses the potential advantages and limitations of quantum techniques. Finally, we look at the challenges that physicists could help tackle

Exploiting Heterogeneous Parallelism on Hybrid Metaheuristics for Vector Autoregression Models

In the last years, the huge amount of data available in many disciplines makes the mathematical modeling, and, more concretely, econometric models, a very important technique to explain those data. One of the most used of those econometric techniques is the Vector Autoregression Models (VAR) which are multi-equation models that linearly describe the interactions and behavior of a group of variables by using their past. Traditionally, Ordinary Least Squares and Maximum likelihood estimators have been used in the estimation of VAR models. These techniques are consistent and asymptotically efficient under ideal conditions of the data and the identification problem. Otherwise, these techniques would yield inconsistent parameter estimations. This paper considers the estimation of a VAR model by minimizing the difference between the dependent variables in a certain time, and the expression of their own past and the exogenous variables of the model (in this case denoted as VARX model). The solution of this optimization problem is approached through hybrid metaheuristics. The high computational cost due to the huge amount of data makes it necessary to exploit High-Performance Computing for the acceleration of methods to obtain the models. The parameterized, parallel implementation of the metaheuristics and the matrix formulation ease the simultaneous exploitation of parallelism for groups of hybrid metaheuristics. Multilevel and heterogeneous parallelism are exploited in multicore CPU plus multiGPU nodes, with the optimum combination of the different parallelism parameters depending on the particular metaheuristic and the problem it is applied to.This work was supported by the Spanish MICINN and AEI, as well as European Commission FEDER funds, under grant RTI2018-098156-B-C53 and grant TIN2016-80565-R

High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications

This open access book was prepared as a Final Publication of the COST Action IC1406 “High-Performance Modelling and Simulation for Big Data Applications (cHiPSet)“ project. Long considered important pillars of the scientific method, Modelling and Simulation have evolved from traditional discrete numerical methods to complex data-intensive continuous analytical optimisations. Resolution, scale, and accuracy have become essential to predict and analyse natural and complex systems in science and engineering. When their level of abstraction raises to have a better discernment of the domain at hand, their representation gets increasingly demanding for computational and data resources. On the other hand, High Performance Computing typically entails the effective use of parallel and distributed processing units coupled with efficient storage, communication and visualisation systems to underpin complex data-intensive applications in distinct scientific and technical domains. It is then arguably required to have a seamless interaction of High Performance Computing with Modelling and Simulation in order to store, compute, analyse, and visualise large data sets in science and engineering. Funded by the European Commission, cHiPSet has provided a dynamic trans-European forum for their members and distinguished guests to openly discuss novel perspectives and topics of interests for these two communities. This cHiPSet compendium presents a set of selected case studies related to healthcare, biological data, computational advertising, multimedia, finance, bioinformatics, and telecommunications

Automatic generation of high-throughput systolic tree-based solvers for modern FPGAs

Tree-based models are a class of numerical methods widely used in financial option pricing, which have a computational complexity that is quadratic with respect to the solution accuracy. Previous research has employed reconfigurable computing with small degrees of parallelism to provide faster hardware solutions compared with general-purpose processing software designs. However, due to the nature of their vector hardware architectures, they cannot scale their compute resources efficiently, leaving them with pricing latency figures which are quadratic with respect to the problem size, and hence to the solution accuracy. Also, their solutions are not productive as they require hardware engineering effort, and can only solve one type of tree problems, known as the standard American option. This thesis presents a novel methodology in the form of a high-level design framework which can capture any common tree-based problem, and automatically generates high-throughput field-programmable gate array (FPGA) solvers based on proposed scalable hardware architectures. The thesis has made three main contributions. First, systolic architectures were proposed for solving binomial and trinomial trees, which due to their custom systolic data-movement mechanisms, can scale their compute resources efficiently to provide linear latency scaling for medium-size trees and improved quadratic latency scaling for large trees. Using the proposed systolic architectures, throughput speed-ups of up to 5.6X and 12X were achieved for modern FPGAs, compared to previous vector designs, for medium and large trees, respectively. Second, a productive high-level design framework was proposed, that can capture any common binomial and trinomial tree problem, and a methodology was suggested to generate high-throughput systolic solvers with custom data precision, where the methodology requires no hardware design effort from the end user. Third, a fully-automated tool-chain methodology was proposed that, compared to previous tree-based solvers, improves user productivity by removing the manual engineering effort of applying the design framework to option pricing problems. Using the productive design framework, high-throughput systolic FPGA solvers have been automatically generated from simple end-user C descriptions for several tree problems, such as American, Bermudan, and barrier options.Open Acces

Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dynamic portfolio optimization with inverse covariance clustering

Market conditions change continuously. However, in portfolio investment strategies, it is hard to account for this intrinsic non-stationarity. In this paper, we propose to address this issue by using the Inverse Covariance Clustering (ICC) method to identify inherent market states and then integrate such states into a dynamic portfolio optimization process. Extensive experiments across three different markets, NASDAQ, FTSE and HS300, over a period of ten years, demonstrate the advantages of our proposed algorithm, termed Inverse Covariance Clustering-Portfolio Optimization (ICC-PO). The core of the ICC-PO methodology concerns the identification and clustering of market states from the analytics of past data and the forecasting of the future market state. It is therefore agnostic to the specific portfolio optimization method of choice. By applying the same portfolio optimization technique on a ICC temporal cluster, instead of the whole train period, we show that one can generate portfolios with substantially higher Sharpe Ratios, which are statistically more robust and resilient with great reductions in the maximum loss in extreme situations. This is shown to be consistent across markets, periods, optimization methods and selection of portfolio assets