A MODIFIED FMEA APPROACH BASED INTEGRATED DECISION FRAMEWORK FOR OVERCOMING THE PROBLEMS OF SUDDEN FAILURE AND ACCIDENTAL HAZARDS IN TURBINE AND ALTERNATOR UNIT

The proposed work presents a novel integrated decision framework, based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy (IF)- Failure Mode & Effect Analysis (IF-FMEA), and IF-Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (IF-TOPSIS) approaches for analysing the failure risk issues of Turbine and Alternator Unit (TAU) in a chemical treatment-based sugar process industry. The proposed novel IF-FMEA approach-based modelling overcomes the various demerits of traditional FMEA approaches which are faced during the identification of critical failure causes based on Risk Priority Number (RPN) outputs. On the basis of detailed qualitative information related to plant operation, FMEA sheet was developed and linguistic ratings were collected against three risk factors such as probability of Occurrence (O), Severity (S), and Detection (D). IF- Hybrid Weighted Euclidean Distance (IFHWED) score has been computed to rank all listed failure causes under three risk factors. The ranking results based on IF-FMEA approach has been compared with the well existed IF-TOPSIS approach for evaluating the accuracy of proposed modelling results. Sensitivity analysis has been also done for checking the robustness of the framework. The analysis results were provided to maintenance executives of the TAU unit to frame optimum maintenance plan for overcoming the problems of sudden breakdown. The analysis results are also applicable to TAU systems which are installed in other chemical process industries globally.

Proposing a new methodology for prioritising the investment strategies in the private sector of Iran

This article proposes a systematic and organised approach for group decision-making in the presence of the uncertainty involved in expert judgments as used in multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) issues. This procedure comprises the selection of the optimum alternative with respect to the evaluation criteria under consideration, in particular to select the strategy of investing. However, the selection of the investment strategy is difficult on account of considering the numerous quantitative and qualitative parameters like benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks. However, it is possible that these parameters have a significant influence on each other. A decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), used to define the influential network of elements, can be employed to construct a network relationship map (NRM). On the other hand, according to whether the information is incomplete or unavailable, uncertainty is an inseparable part of making decision for solving the MCDM problems. Therefore, this article proposes a new hybrid model based on analytic hierarchical process (AHP), DEMATEL, and echnique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) techniques under fuzzy environment to evaluate the problem of the selection of the investment strategy. To achieve the aim, a three-step process is presented to solve a sophisticated problem. First, the AHP method is employed to break down the investment problem into simple structure and calculate the importance weights of criteria by using a pairwise comparison process. Second, the DEMATEL technique is applied for considering interdependence and dependencies and computing the global weights of benefit, opportunities, cost, and risk (BOCR) factors. Finally, the fuzzy TOPSIS methodology is used for prioritising the possible alternatives. To demonstrate the potential application of the proposed model, a numerical example is illustrated and investigated. The results show that the proposed model has a high ability to prioritise the strategies of investing

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOME PROMINENT MCDM METHODS: A CASE OF RANKING SERBIAN BANKS

In the literature, many multiple criteria decision making methods have been proposed. There are also a number of papers, which are devoted to comparison of their characteristics and performances. However, a definitive answer to questions: which method is most suitable and which method is most effective is still actual. Therefore, in this paper, the use of some prominent multiple criteria decision making methods is considered on the example of ranking Serbian banks. The objective of this paper is not to determine which method is most appropriate for ranking banks. The objective of this paper is to emphasize that the use of various multiple criteria decision making methods sometimes can produce different ranking orders of alternatives, highlighted some reasons which lead to different results, and indicate that different results obtained by different MCDM methods are not just a random event, but rather reality

Multi-Criteria Decision Matrix Method in the Risk Analysis of Biodiesel Production Processes

Renewable fuel technologies aim to mitigate the non-renewability of fossil fuels, challenges with increased energy demand, and the climate impact of fossil fuel emissions. However, before investing in renewable technologies, there need to be decision strategies that assess and identify the best alternatives according to stakeholder priorities. There is also a concern about whether the technologies that are the “most sustainable” effectively meet the acceptable risk requirements of stakeholders. In response to this question, a risk-adapted multi-criteria decision model was developed and compared to a sustainability study that evaluated five renewable diesel technologies, including Green Diesel I, II, and III; Fischer-Tropsch biodiesel, and the transesterification of biodiesel from vegetable oils. This thesis work provides essential stakeholder perspectives on the risk of these same five technologies and limits the use of probabilistic quantification approaches. Instead, this study uses reasonable assumptions to measure the indicator data objectively. These quantified indicators are considered a cost or benefit and allow adequate comparison of less mature technologies where historical data may be unavailable to more mature ones. This model uses the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) decision strategy with stakeholder survey input to determine criteria and sub-criteria weightings, while the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) subsequently ranks the alternative technologies. The criteria evaluated from a risk perspective include process safety, environmental, economic, technological, and social risks. This risk assessment process has ranked technologies producing alternative fuel types. However, it can also compare and rank bioproduct and process intensification technologies to fossil-derived products and more traditional production techniques. Moreover, the central conclusion of this work is that an even more comprehensive tool is needed that combines risk and sustainability aspects. This conclusion is due to the sustainability study indicating Fischer-Tropsch diesel as the best option. At the same time, the present risk research revealed it as the option with the most significant comparative risk

Fuzzy multi-criteria decision making for carbon dioxide geological storage in Turkey

The problem of choosing the best location for CO2 storage is a crucial and challenging multi-criteria decision problem for some companies. This study compares the performance of three fuzzy-based multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods, including Fuzzy TOPSIS, Fuzzy ELECTRE I and Fuzzy VIKOR for solving the carbon dioxide geological storage location selection problem in Turkey. The results show that MCDM approach is a useful tool for decision makers in the selection of potential sites for CO2 geological storage

An Overview of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and the Applications of AHP and TOPSIS Methods

The integration of multiple technical, economic, environmental, and social criteria establishes Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) as a dependable decision-making tool in the context of interdisciplinary research. This study employs a literature-based methodology to illustrate how MCDA, particularly utilizing the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and TOPSIS models, has been utilized to tackle intricate decision-making issues. It also highlights the noteworthy discoveries derived from real-world applications, drawing upon previous research and case studies. This study explores the methodologies employed in the commonly utilized AHP and TOPSIS approaches, highlighting their broad applicability across various industries from 2000 to 2023. Additionally, a comprehensive examination of the applications of MCDA has been organized into five distinct sectors, namely supply chain, healthcare, business, resource management, and engineering & manufacturing

Hydrothermal processing of biogenic residues in Germany: A technology assessment considering development paths by 2030

The mining, processing, and use of finite natural resources is associated with significant interventions in the natural environment. Thus, these and other negative consequences make it necessary to reduce resource consumption. An important field of action is the more efficient use of biogenic residues as secondary raw materials. However, high water containing biomasses are still a problem since they need an energy- and cost-intensive pre-treatment for many conversion processes, which can make their use uneconomical. Hydrothermal processes (HTP) seem to be promising, since they require an aqueous environment for optimal processing anyway. Although technological progress within the industry is recognisable, however, to date HTP have not been established in industrial continuous operation in Germany. The core of this work is identifying reasons for this sluggish development and deriving appropriate recommendations for action. Based on the hypothesis that HTP can contribute to the efficient utilisation of biogenic residues in the future, potentials and obstacles for the development of HTP in Germany are identified using a literature review, expert survey, expert workshop, and SWOT analysis. To estimate the future potential of HTP in a systematic and structured way, a multi-criteria technology assessment approach is developed based on the results. To this end, assessment criteria for HTP are derived, weighted by expert judgment, and integrated into a transparent and structured procedure. In addition, mainly based on a Delphi-survey key factors of HTP development by 2030 in Germany are identified and three development alternatives for HTP in Germany by 2030 are derived. Using a system analysis and a comparative multi-criteria analysis at plant level, these scenarios are analysed for their possible future impact. Based on this methodology, the work shows that the production costs for the end products, the energy efficiency of the process, and the proportion of recycled phosphorus are of high relevance to the techno-economic success of HTP compared to reference systems, and they are therefore of high importance for its future development on the plant level. In addition, further key factors for the future development of HTP in Germany on the system level are found to be mainly in the political-legal (e.g. legal waste status of products from HTP) and techno-economic (e.g. cost-effective process water treatment) areas. According to this, important fields of action are the identification and use of cost reduction potentials (e.g. heat waste use), the development of system integrated decentralised plant concepts with integrated nutrient recycling (e.g. phosphorus), and the development of cost-effective ways to treat process water. System integration, cost-effective process water treatment, and nutrient recycling are all closely linked to production costs, investment costs, and potential revenues, and can contribute to improved process economics. For these areas, there is promising future potential to achieve higher competitiveness with reference technologies that are currently more economical.:Bibliographic description Curriculum Vitae Selbstständigkeitserklärung Danksagung List of Publications Contribution to the Publications Contents List of Acronyms List of Tables List of Figures Part I Introductory Chapters 1 Introduction and Background Hydrothermal processes: Introduction and status quo State of the art in the research field and knowledge gaps Objective and research framework Expected value added of this work 2 Materials and methods Derivation of HTP evaluation metrics and technology assessment tool Derivation of key HTP development factors and scenarios Performing the system-level scenario analysis Plant-level scenario analysis and test application of the assessment tool Derivation of core recommendations 3 Results and discussion Key development factors for HTP in Germany and scenarios System-level scenario analysis Test application of the assessment tool on plant level scenarios Recommendations Discussion 4 Conclusion and outlook Future research Further fields for the application of the developed methods 5 References Part II Appended Articles Paper I Paper II Paper III Paper IV Paper V Paper VIDer Abbau, die Verarbeitung und die Nutzung endlicher natürlicher Ressourcen sind mit erheblichen Eingriffen in die natürliche Umwelt verbunden. Diese und andere negative Folgen machen es daher erforderlich, den Ressourcenverbrauch zu senken. Ein wichtiges Handlungsfeld ist die effizientere Nutzung biogener Reststoffe als Sekundärrohstoffe. Stark wasserhaltige Biomassen sind jedoch ein Problem, da sie für viele Umwandlungsprozesse eine energie- und kostenintensive Vorbehandlung benötigen, was ihre Verwendung unwirtschaftlich machen kann. Hydrothermale Prozesse (HTP) scheinen für diese Reststoffe allerdings vielversprechend zu sein, da sie ohnehin eine wässrige Umgebung für eine optimale Verarbeitung benötigen. Obwohl der technologische Fortschritt innerhalb der Branche erkennbar ist, wurde HTP in Deutschland bisher nicht im industriellen Dauerbetrieb etabliert. Der Kern dieser Arbeit besteht darin, Gründe für diese schleppende Entwicklung zu ermitteln und geeignete Handlungsempfehlungen abzuleiten. Basierend auf der Hypothese, dass HTP in Zukunft zur effizienten Nutzung biogener Reststoffe beitragen können, werden Potenziale und Hindernisse für deren Entwicklung in Deutschland anhand einer Literaturrecherche, einer Expertenumfrage, eines Expertenworkshops und einer SWOT-Analyse ermittelt. Um das zukünftige Potenzial von HTP systematisch und strukturiert abzuschätzen, wird basierend auf den Ergebnissen ein multi-kriterieller Technologiebewertungsansatz entwickelt. Zu diesem Zweck werden Bewertungskriterien für HTP abgeleitet, nach Expertenmeinung gewichtet und in ein transparentes und strukturiertes Verfahren integriert. Darüber hinaus werden hauptsächlich auf der Grundlage einer Delphi-Umfrage Schlüsselfaktoren für die HTP-Entwicklung bis 2030 in Deutschland identifiziert und drei Entwicklungsalternativen für HTP in Deutschland bis 2030 abgeleitet. Mithilfe einer Systemanalyse und einer vergleichenden multi-kriteriellen Analyse auf Anlagenebene werden diese Szenarien auf ihre möglichen zukünftigen Auswirkungen hin analysiert. Basierend auf dieser Methodik zeigen sich als Ergebnisse, dass die Produktionskosten für die Endprodukte, die Energieeffizienz der Prozesse und der Anteil an recyceltem Phosphor für den techno-ökonomischen Erfolg von HTP im Vergleich zu Referenzsystemen von hoher Relevanz und daher auch von hoher Bedeutung für die zukünftige Entwicklung auf Anlagenebene sind. Darüber hinaus liegen weitere Schlüsselfaktoren für die künftige Entwicklung von HTP in Deutschland auf Systemebene hauptsächlich im politisch-rechtlichen (z. B. legalen Abfallstatus von Produkten aus HTP) und techno-ökonomischen (z. B. kostengünstige Prozesswasseraufbereitung)) Bereichen. Wichtige Handlungsfelder sind demnach die Ermittlung und Nutzung von Kostensenkungspotentialen (zB Abwärmenutzung), die Entwicklung systemintegrierter dezentraler Anlagenkonzepte mit integriertem Nährstoffrecycling (z.B. Phosphor) und die Entwicklung kostengünstiger Wege zur Prozesswasserbehandlung. Systemintegration, kostengünstige Prozesswasseraufbereitung und Nährstoffrecycling hängen eng mit Produktionskosten, Investitionskosten und potenziellen Einnahmen zusammen und können zu einer verbesserten Wirtschaftlichkeit der Prozesse beitragen. Für diese Bereiche besteht ein vielversprechendes Zukunftspotenzial für eine höhere Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zu Referenztechnologien, die derzeit noch wirtschaftlicher sind.:Bibliographic description Curriculum Vitae Selbstständigkeitserklärung Danksagung List of Publications Contribution to the Publications Contents List of Acronyms List of Tables List of Figures Part I Introductory Chapters 1 Introduction and Background Hydrothermal processes: Introduction and status quo State of the art in the research field and knowledge gaps Objective and research framework Expected value added of this work 2 Materials and methods Derivation of HTP evaluation metrics and technology assessment tool Derivation of key HTP development factors and scenarios Performing the system-level scenario analysis Plant-level scenario analysis and test application of the assessment tool Derivation of core recommendations 3 Results and discussion Key development factors for HTP in Germany and scenarios System-level scenario analysis Test application of the assessment tool on plant level scenarios Recommendations Discussion 4 Conclusion and outlook Future research Further fields for the application of the developed methods 5 References Part II Appended Articles Paper I Paper II Paper III Paper IV Paper V Paper V

A systematic review of the application of multi-criteria decision-making in evaluating nationally determined contribution projects

Analyses in the past decade and more recently, catastrophic events, including extreme temperatures, un- predictable weather patterns, floods, and wildfires caused by climate change, have become too common worldwide. There is overwhelming evidence that country commitments expressed in National Determined Contributions (NDCs) can contribute to stabilising or reversing the course of impacts of climate change. With the multiplicity of NDC measures, compounded by their complexities and limited resources, multi-criteria decision-making tools can be used in making informed decisions about their development. Furthermore, while many countries are blessed with an abundance of sustainable resources and technologies to feed into NDCs, a major challenge is prioritising them as part of the national and global climate change mitigation and adaptation agenda. Many multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and tools have been developed over the years. However, their implementation in practice for prioritising NDC measures is still not well-known despite their high acceptance in academic literature. This study adopts a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature from the Web of Science and grey literature from the recently launched Technology Needs Assessment database to fully understand the MCDM tools used in evaluating NDC projects from academic versus practice perspectives. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method adopted, culminated in the identification of 464 peer-reviewed journal articles and 50 TNA reports used in the analysis. The results indicate amongst the many MCDM techniques in peer-reviewed literature, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is the most widely used in research, while simplified MCDM methods are the most used in practice

VIKOR Technique:A Systematic Review of the State of the Art Literature on Methodologies and Applications

The main objective of this paper is to present a systematic review of the VlseKriterijuska Optimizacija I Komoromisno Resenje (VIKOR) method in several application areas such as sustainability and renewable energy. This study reviewed a total of 176 papers, published in 2004 to 2015, from 83 high-ranking journals; most of which were related to Operational Research, Management Sciences, decision making, sustainability and renewable energy and were extracted from the “Web of Science and Scopus” databases. Papers were classified into 15 main application areas. Furthermore, papers were categorized based on the nationalities of authors, dates of publications, techniques and methods, type of studies, the names of the journals and studies purposes. The results of this study indicated that more papers on VIKOR technique were published in 2013 than in any other year. In addition, 13 papers were published about sustainability and renewable energy fields. Furthermore, VIKOR and fuzzy VIKOR methods, had the first rank in use. Additionally, the Journal of Expert Systems with Applications was the most significant journal in this study, with 27 publications on the topic. Finally, Taiwan had the first rank from 22 nationalities which used VIKOR technique

Multi-criteria decision making support tools for maintenance of marine machinery systems

PhD ThesisFor ship systems to remain reliable and safe they must be effectively maintained through a sound maintenance management system. The three major elements of maintenance management systems are; risk assessment, maintenance strategy selection and maintenance task interval determination. The implementation of these elements will generally determine the level of ship system safety and reliability. Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) is one method that can be used to optimise maintenance management systems. However the tools used within the framework of the RCM methodology have limitations which may compromise the efficiency of RCM in achieving the desired results. This research presents the development of tools to support the RCM methodology and improve its effectiveness in marine maintenance system applications. Each of the three elements of the maintenance management system has been considered in turn. With regard to risk assessment, two Multi-Criteria Decision Making techniques (MCDM); Vlsekriterijumska Optimizacija Ikompromisno Resenje, meaning: Multi-criteria Optimization and Compromise Solution (VIKOR) and Compromise Programming (CP) have been integrated into Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) along with a novel averaging technique which allows the use of incomplete or imprecise failure data. Three hybrid MCDM techniques have then been compared for maintenance strategy selection; an integrated Delphi-Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology, an integrated Delphi-AHP-PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluation) methodology and an integrated Delphi-AHP-TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) methodology. Maintenance task interval determination has been implemented using a MCDM framework integrating a delay time model to determine the optimum inspection interval and using the age replacement model for the scheduled replacement tasks. A case study based on a marine Diesel engine has been developed with input from experts in the field to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodologies.Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND), a scholarship body of the Federal Republic of Nigeria for providing the fund for this research. My gratitude also goes to Federal University of Petroleum Resource, Effurun, Nigeria for giving me the opportunity to be a beneficiary of the scholarship