Artificial metaplasticity prediction model for cognitive rehabilitation outcome in acquired brain injury patients

Objective The main purpose of this research is the novel use of artificial metaplasticity on multilayer perceptron (AMMLP) as a data mining tool for prediction the outcome of patients with acquired brain injury (ABI) after cognitive rehabilitation. The final goal aims at increasing knowledge in the field of rehabilitation theory based on cognitive affectation. Methods and materials The data set used in this study contains records belonging to 123 ABI patients with moderate to severe cognitive affectation (according to Glasgow Coma Scale) that underwent rehabilitation at Institut Guttmann Neurorehabilitation Hospital (IG) using the tele-rehabilitation platform PREVIRNEC©. The variables included in the analysis comprise the neuropsychological initial evaluation of the patient (cognitive affectation profile), the results of the rehabilitation tasks performed by the patient in PREVIRNEC© and the outcome of the patient after a 3–5 months treatment. To achieve the treatment outcome prediction, we apply and compare three different data mining techniques: the AMMLP model, a backpropagation neural network (BPNN) and a C4.5 decision tree. Results The prediction performance of the models was measured by ten-fold cross validation and several architectures were tested. The results obtained by the AMMLP model are clearly superior, with an average predictive performance of 91.56%. BPNN and C4.5 models have a prediction average accuracy of 80.18% and 89.91% respectively. The best single AMMLP model provided a specificity of 92.38%, a sensitivity of 91.76% and a prediction accuracy of 92.07%. Conclusions The proposed prediction model presented in this study allows to increase the knowledge about the contributing factors of an ABI patient recovery and to estimate treatment efficacy in individual patients. The ability to predict treatment outcomes may provide new insights toward improving effectiveness and creating personalized therapeutic interventions based on clinical evidence

Data mining applied to the cognitive rehabilitation of patients with acquired brain injury

Acquired brain injury (ABI) is one of the leading causes of death and disability in the world and is associated with high health care costs as a result of the acute treatment and long term rehabilitation involved. Different algorithms and methods have been proposed to predict the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs. In general, research has focused on predicting the overall improvement of patients with ABI. The purpose of this study is the novel application of data mining (DM) techniques to predict the outcomes of cognitive rehabilitation in patients with ABI. We generate three predictive models that allow us to obtain new knowledge to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of the cognitive rehabilitation process. Decision tree (DT), multilayer perceptron (MLP) and general regression neural network (GRNN) have been used to construct the prediction models. 10-fold cross validation was carried out in order to test the algorithms, using the Institut Guttmann Neurorehabilitation Hospital (IG) patients database. Performance of the models was tested through specificity, sensitivity and accuracy analysis and confusion matrix analysis. The experimental results obtained by DT are clearly superior with a prediction average accuracy of 90.38%, while MLP and GRRN obtained a 78.7% and 75.96%, respectively. This study allows to increase the knowledge about the contributing factors of an ABI patient recovery and to estimate treatment efficacy in individual patients

Machine learning for the prediction of psychosocial outcomes in acquired brain injury

Acquired brain injury (ABI) can be a life changing condition, affecting housing, independence, and employment. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly used as a method to predict ABI outcomes, however improper model evaluation poses a potential bias to initially promising findings (Chapter One). This study aimed to evaluate, with transparent reporting, three common ML classification methods. Regularised logistic regression with elastic net, random forest and linear kernel support vector machine were compared with unregularised logistic regression to predict good psychosocial outcomes after discharge from ABI inpatient neurorehabilitation using routine cognitive, psychometric and clinical admission assessments. Outcomes were selected on the basis of decision making for care packages: accommodation status, functional participation, supervision needs, occupation and quality of life. The primary outcome was accommodation (n = 164), with models internally validated using repeated nested cross-validation. Random forest was statistically superior to logistic regression for every outcome with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ranging from 0.81 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.85) for the primary outcome of accommodation, to its lowest performance for predicting occupation status with an AUC of 0.72 (0.69-0.76). The worst performing ML algorithm was support vector machine, only having statistically superior performance to logistic regression for one outcome, supervision needs, with an AUC of 0.75 (0.71-0.80). Unregularised logistic regression models were poorly calibrated compared to ML indicating severe overfitting, unlikely to perform well in new samples. Overall, ML can predict psychosocial outcomes using routine psychosocial admission data better than other statistical methods typically used by psychologists

Machine learning-based dynamic mortality prediction after traumatic brain injury

Our aim was to create simple and largely scalable machine learning-based algorithms that could predict mortality in a real-time fashion during intensive care after traumatic brain injury. We performed an observational multicenter study including adult TBI patients that were monitored for intracranial pressure (ICP) for at least 24 h in three ICUs. We used machine learning-based logistic regression modeling to create two algorithms (based on ICP, mean arterial pressure [MAP], cerebral perfusion pressure [CPP] and Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS]) to predict 30-day mortality. We used a stratified crossvalidation technique for internal validation. Of 472 included patients, 92 patients (19%) died within 30 days. Following cross-validation, the ICP-MAP-CPP algorithm's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) increased from 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.60-0.74) on day 1 to 0.81 (95% CI 0.75-0.87) on day 5. The ICP-MAP-CPP-GCS algorithm's AUC increased from 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.78) on day 1 to 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90) on day 5. Algorithm misclassification was seen among patients undergoing decompressive craniectomy. In conclusion, we present a new concept of dynamic prognostication for patients with TBI treated in the ICU. Our simple algorithms, based on only three and four main variables, discriminated between survivors and non-survivors with accuracies up to 81% and 84%. These open-sourced simple algorithms can likely be further developed, also in low and middleincome countries.Peer reviewe

An Application of Data Analytics to Outcomes of Missouri Motor Vehicle Crashes

Motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of death in the United States, cost Americans $277 billion annually, and generate serious psychological burdens. As a result, extensive vehicle safety research focusing on the explanatory factors of crash severity is undertaken using a wide array of methodological techniques including traditional statistical models and contemporary data mining approaches. This study advances the methodological frontier of crash severity research by completing an empirical investigation that compares the performance of popular, longstanding techniques of multinomial logit and ordinal probit models with more recent methods of decision tree and artificial neural network models. To further the investigation of the benefits of data analytics, individual models are combined into model ensembles using three popular combinatory techniques. The models are estimated using 2002 to 2012 crash data from the Missouri State Highway Patrol Traffic Division - Statewide Traffic Accident Records System database, and variables examined include various driver characteristics, temporal factors, weather conditions, road characteristics, crash type, crash location, and injury severity levels. The accuracy and discriminatory power of explaining crash severity outcomes among all methods are compared using classification tables, lift charts, ROC curves, and AUC values. The CHAID decision tree model is found to have the greatest accuracy and discriminatory power relative to all evaluated modeling approaches. The modeling reveals that the presence of alcohol, driving at speeds that exceed the limit, failing to yield, driving on the wrong side of the road, violating a stop sign or signal, and driving while physically impaired lead to a large number of fatalities each year. Yet, the effect of these factors on the probability of a severe outcome is dependent upon other variables, including number of occupants involved in the crash, speed limit, lighting condition, and age of the driver. The CHAID decision tree is used in conjunction with prior literature and the current Missouri rules of the road to provide better formulated driving policies. This study concludes that policy makers should consider the interaction of conditions and driver related contributing factors when crafting future legislation or proposing modifications in driving statues

Neural networks to predict radiographic brain injury in pediatric patients treated with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

Brain injury is a significant source of morbidity and mortality for pediatric patients treated with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO). Our objective was to utilize neural networks to predict radiographic evidence of brain injury in pediatric ECMO-supported patients and identify specific variables that can be explored for future research. Data from 174 ECMO-supported patients were collected up to 24 h prior to, and for the duration of, the ECMO course. Thirty-five variables were collected, including physiological data, markers of end-organ perfusion, acid-base homeostasis, vasoactive infusions, markers of coagulation, and ECMO-machine factors. The primary outcome was the presence of radiologic evidence of moderate to severe brain injury as established by brain CT or MRI. This information was analyzed by a neural network, and results were compared to a logistic regression model as well as clinician judgement. The neural network model was able to predict brain injury with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.76, 73% sensitivity, and 80% specificity. Logistic regression had 62% sensitivity and 61% specificity. Clinician judgment had 39% sensitivity and 69% specificity. Sequential feature group masking demonstrated a relatively greater contribution of physiological data and minor contribution of coagulation factors to the model\u27s performance. These findings lay the foundation for further areas of research directions

A Deep Learning Model to Predict Traumatic Brain Injury Severity and Outcome from MR Images

For Many Neurological Disorders, Including Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI), Neuroimaging Information Plays a Crucial Role Determining Diagnosis and Prognosis. TBI is a Heterogeneous Disorder that Can Result in Lasting Physical, Emotional and Cognitive Impairments. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is a Non-Invasive Technique that Uses Radio Waves to Reveal Fine Details of Brain Anatomy and Pathology. Although MRIs Are Interpreted by Radiologists, Advances Are Being Made in the Use of Deep Learning for MRI Interpretation. This Work Evaluates a Deep Learning Model based on a Residual Learning Convolutional Neural Network that Predicts TBI Severity from MR Images. the Model Achieved a High Sensitivity and Specificity on the Test Sample of Subjects with Varying Levels of TBI Severity. Six Outcome Measures Were Available on TBI Subjects at 6 and 12 Months. Group Comparisons of Outcomes between Subjects Correctly Classified by the Model with Subjects Misclassified Suggested that the Neural Network May Be Able to Identify Latent Predictive Information from the MR Images Not Incorporated in the Ground Truth Labels. the Residual Learning Model Shows Promise in the Classification of MR Images from Subjects with TBI

Prognosis after traumatic brain injury

Dit proefschrift beschrijft een aantal studies op het gebied van prognose na matig ernstig of ernstig traumatisch hersenletsel (THL). In hoofdstuk 1 wordt het klinische probleem van traumatisch hersenletsel besproken. Traumatisch hersenletsel wordt gedefinieerd als elk hersenletsel dat is ontstaan door een oorzaak van buitenaf, zoals een ongeval, een val of een schotwond. THL vormt een belangrijk volksgezondheidsprobleem in de Westerse wereld; het is een van de meest voorkomende doodsoorzaken bij jong volwassenen en het kan het leven en het functioneren van jonge mensen enorm beïnvloeden. De nadruk van dit proefschrift ligt op de ontwikkeling en validatie van prognostische modellen; statistische modellen waarin individuele patiëntkenmerken worden gecombineerd om de kans op een bepaalde uitkomst of ziekte status te kunnen voorspellen. De doelstellingen betroffen: (1) het beschrijven van methodologische ontwikkelingen ten aanzien van eerder ontwikkelde prognostische modellen voor THL patiënten; (2) de ontwikkeling en validatie van nieuwe prognostische modellen die de lange termijn gevolgen voorspellen voor patiënten met matig ernstig of ernstig traumatisch hersenletsel en (3) het voorspellen van de behoefte van een THL patiënt aan behandeling in een gespecialiseerd traumacentrum om zo de triage criteria (al dan niet transporteren naar een gespecialiseerd trauma centrum) te kunnen verbeteren.This thesis describes studies on prognosis after severe or moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI). In Chapter 1, the clinical problem of TBI is discussed. TBI is generally defined as an injury to the brain caused by an external physical force, such as a traffic accident, a fall or a gunshot. TBI is an important public health care problem in the western world. It is one of the most common causes of death in young adults and it can affect people’s lives enormously. The focus of this thesis is on developing and validating prognostic models: statistical models that combine individual patient characteristics to predict the probability of a particular outcome or disease state. The objectives of this thesis were: (1) to study methodological developments in prognostic modeling in TBI; (2) to develop and validate prognostic models that predict long- term outcome for patients with severe or moderate TBI an (3) to predict the need of specialized intensive care to aid a more efficient triage of patients