Financial cycles, credit networks and macroeconomic fluctuations: multi-scale stochastic models and wavelet analysis

This project focuses on the macroeconomics of financial cycles. Usually defined in terms of self-reinforcing interactions between perceptions of value and risk, attitudes towards risk and financing constraints, which translate into booms followed by bust, the recent empirical literature has recurred to two approaches \u2013 turning point analysis and frequency-based filters - applied to measures of credit and asset prices to pose a number of stylized facts. First, financial cycles tend to display a greater amplitude and a lower frequency in comparison to business cycles, with peaks associated with systemic crises. Second, financial cycles depend on policy regimes and on the pace of financial innovations, leading to a wide cross-country heterogeneity and a time-varying degree of global synchronization. The latter point is clearly related to the structural transformations occurred in financial systems over the last three decades, like the cumulative integration of traditional banking with capital market developments and the increasing degree of interconnections among financial institutions. However, to date very little is known about determinants and mechanisms behind financial cycles, and on how they interact with business cycles and medium-to-long-run macroeconomic performance. In this project we plan to research along three dimensions: i) measurement issues, in order to provide a comprehensive assessment of the evolution of co-movements between financial and real variables across a sample of financial developed countries, both over time and at different frequencies; ii) theoretical issues, aimed at exploring under what circumstances the network of interconnections among financial intermediaries and between intermediaries and non-financial borrowers might evolve cyclically, contributing this way to regulate the incentives agents have in taking risks, and to set the importance of credit and financial frictions in accounting for time-varying misallocations of resources; iii) policy issues, given the role assigned by international supervisory bodies to a proper characterization and knowledge of the financial cycle as a prerequisite for the macro-prudential regulation of banks, and the scope of monetary policy in promoting financial stability in addition to the typical mandate of price stability. Our task requires the employment of a new approach to macroeconomic analysis, diverse analytical tools and one unifying economic principle. As regards the latter, our focal point is the notion of risk externalities, across financial institutions and between the financial sector and the real economy. The set of tools we plan to employ spans from wavelets methods to multi-scale models in continuous time, and from strategic network formation to agent-based computational techniques. All these tools are instrumental in building and estimating macroeconomic models characterized by interrelated markets operating at different time scales

Critical Market Crashes

This review is a partial synthesis of the book ``Why stock market crash'' (Princeton University Press, January 2003), which presents a general theory of financial crashes and of stock market instabilities that his co-workers and the author have developed over the past seven years. The study of the frequency distribution of drawdowns, or runs of successive losses shows that large financial crashes are ``outliers'': they form a class of their own as can be seen from their statistical signatures. If large financial crashes are ``outliers'', they are special and thus require a special explanation, a specific model, a theory of their own. In addition, their special properties may perhaps be used for their prediction. The main mechanisms leading to positive feedbacks, i.e., self-reinforcement, such as imitative behavior and herding between investors are reviewed with many references provided to the relevant literature outside the confine of Physics. Positive feedbacks provide the fuel for the development of speculative bubbles, preparing the instability for a major crash. We demonstrate several detailed mathematical models of speculative bubbles and crashes. The most important message is the discovery of robust and universal signatures of the approach to crashes. These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets, on currency markets, on company stocks, and so on. The concept of an ``anti-bubble'' is also summarized, with two forward predictions on the Japanese stock market starting in 1999 and on the USA stock market still running. We conclude by presenting our view of the organization of financial markets.Comment: Latex 89 pages and 38 figures, in press in Physics Report

Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) : Proceedings of a Colloquium

The present book contains five contributions relating to the introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), i.e., the digital form of state-issued legal tender. It is the by-product of a Colloquium jointly hosted by the Collegium Helveticum (the joint Institute for Advanced Studies of ETH Zurich, the University of Zurich and the Zurich University of the Arts) and the University of Zurich’s Priority Research Program on Financial Market Regulation (URPP FinReg) on 9 May 2023. The contributions to this book provide an in-depth analysis of the following aspects of CBDCs

Ann Emerg Med

Infection prevention remains a major challenge in emergency care. Acutely ill and injured patients seeking evaluation and treatment in the emergency department (ED) not only have the potential to spread communicable infectious diseases to health care personnel and other patients, but are vulnerable to acquiring new infections associated with the care they receive. This article will evaluate these risks and review the existing literature for infection prevention practices in the ED, ranging from hand hygiene, standard and transmission-based precautions, health care personnel vaccination, and environmental controls to strategies for preventing health care-associated infections. We will conclude by examining what can be done to optimize infection prevention in the ED and identify gaps in knowledge where further research is needed. Successful implementation of evidence-based practices coupled with innovation of novel approaches and technologies tailored specifically to the complex and dynamic environment of the ED are the keys to raising the standard for infection prevention and patient safety in emergency care.20142015-09-01T00:00:00ZR18HS020013/HS/AHRQ HHS/United StatesK08 HS018092/HS/AHRQ HHS/United StatesUL1RR024992/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United StatesUL1 RR024992/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United StatesR18 HS020013/HS/AHRQ HHS/United StatesK08 HS18092/HS/AHRQ HHS/United StatesK12 HD001459/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United StatesKL2RR024994/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United StatesR13HS021616/HS/AHRQ HHS/United StatesUL1 TR000448/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United StatesU54 CK000162/CK/NCEZID CDC HHS/United StatesKL2 RR024994/RR/NCRR NIH HHS/United StatesKM1CA156708/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United StatesKM1 CA156708/CA/NCI NIH HHS/United StatesR13 HS021616/HS/AHRQ HHS/United States5K12HD001459-13/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/United StatesKL2 TR000450/TR/NCATS NIH HHS/United States24721718PMC4143473754

Strategies to Maintain Profitability When Crude Oil Prices Fluctuate

Rapid and sustained fluctuations in the crude oil market have remained a threat to the financial performance of national and multinational oil and gas corporations. Such fluctuations can reduce the profitability of national and multinational oil and gas corporations. The purpose of this qualitative descriptive single case study was to explore strategies oil production leaders used to maintain profitability when crude oil prices fluctuate. The participants included 6 senior oil production leaders in a national oil corporation in Ghana who employed successful strategies to maintain profitability. Kraus and Litzenberger’s trade-off theory of capital structure served as the conceptual framework for the study. Data collection methods included semistructured interviews, company documents, direct observation, and a reflective journal. Based on the methodological triangulation and the use of thematic data analysis technique, 3 broad themes emerged: relating to enhancing operational efficiency through organizational restructuring and competitive oil price hedging, business portfolio diversification through effective asset management and innovative technologies, and optimization of capital structure through debt restructuring. Oil production leaders would have to embrace the growth of artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things to improve the efficiency of business operations and maintain profitability. Oil production leaders might apply these findings to enhance business continuity, avoid bankruptcy, and maintain profitability during oil price downturns. Maintaining profitability would help ensure employees’ job security and flow of income. Sustained income would benefit employees and their families and could have a positive social impact on employees’ local communities

Beyond Biomedicine: Sub-Saharan Africa and the struggle for HIV/AIDS discourse

abstract: This study aims to unearth monological and monocultural discourses buried under the power of the dominant biomedical model governing the HIV/AIDS debate. The study responds to an apparent consensus, rooted in Western biomedicine and its "standardizations of knowledge," in the production of the current HIV/AIDS discourse, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, biomedicine has become the dominant actor (in) writing and rewriting discourse for the masses while marginalizing other forms of medical knowledge. Specifically, in its development, the Western biomedical model has arguably isolated the disease from its human host and the social experiences that facilitate the disease's transmission, placing it in the realm of laboratories and scientific experts and giving full ownership to Western medical discourse. Coupled with Western assumptions about African culture that reproduce a one-sided discourse informing the social construction of HIV/AIDS in Africa, this Western monopoly thus constrained the extent and efficacy of international prevention efforts. In this context, the goal for this study is not to demonize the West and biomedicine in general. Rather, this study seeks an alternative and less monolithic understanding currently absent in scientific discourses of HIV/AIDS that frequently elevates Western biomedicine over indigenous medicine; the Western expert over the local. The study takes into account the local voices of Sub-Saharan Africa and how the system has affected them, this study utilizes a Foucauldian approach to analyze discourse as a way to explore how certain ways of knowledge are formed in relation to power. This study also examines how certain knowlege is maintaned and reinforced within specific discourses.Dissertation/ThesisM.S. Biology 201

Optimising Emotions, Incubating Falsehoods: How to Protect the Global Civic Body from Disinformation and Misinformation

This open access book deconstructs the core features of online misinformation and disinformation. It finds that the optimisation of emotions for commercial and political gain is a primary cause of false information online. The chapters distil societal harms, evaluate solutions, and consider what must be done to strengthen societies as new biometric forms of emotion profiling emerge. Based on a rich, empirical, and interdisciplinary literature that examines multiple countries, the book will be of interest to scholars and students of Communications, Journalism, Politics, Sociology, Science and Technology Studies, and Information Science, as well as global and local policymakers and ordinary citizens interested in how to prevent the spread of false information worldwide, both now and in the future

COVID-19 and Environment: Impacts of a Global Pandemic

This is a reprint of the MDPI IJERPH Special Issue entitled "COVID-19 and Environment: Impacts of a Global Pandemic". The reprint consists of 17 papers with different topics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and environmental impacts using data from different countries all over the globe

Rules for Growth: Promoting Innovation and Growth Through Legal Reform

The United States economy is struggling to recover from its worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. After several huge doses of conventional macroeconomic stimulus - deficit-spending and monetary stimulus - policymakers are understandably eager to find innovative no-cost ways of sustaining growth both in the short and long runs. In response to this challenge, the Kauffman Foundation convened a number of America’s leading legal scholars and social scientists during the summer of 2010 to present and discuss their ideas for changing legal rules and policies to promote innovation and accelerate U.S. economic growth. This meeting led to the publication of Rules for Growth: Promoting Innovation and Growth Through Legal Reform, a comprehensive and groundbreaking volume of essays prescribing a new set of growth-promoting policies for policymakers, legal scholars, economists, and business men and women. Some of the top Rules include: • Reforming U.S. immigration laws so that more high-skilled immigrants can launch businesses in the United States. • Improving university technology licensing practices so university-generated innovation is more quickly and efficiently commercialized. • Moving away from taxes on income that penalize risk-taking, innovation, and employment while shifting toward a more consumption-based tax system that encourages saving that funds investment. In addition, the research tax credit should be redesigned and made permanent. • Overhauling local zoning rules to facilitate the formation of innovative companies. • Urging judges to take a more expansive view of flexible business contracts that are increasingly used by innovative firms. • Urging antitrust enforcers and courts to define markets more in global terms to reflect contemporary realities, resist antitrust enforcement from countries with less sound antitrust regimes, and prohibit industry trade protection and subsidies. • Reforming the intellectual property system to allow for a post-grant opposition process and address the large patent application backlog by allowing applicants to pay for more rapid patent reviews. • Authorizing corporate entities to form digitally and use software as a means for setting out agreements and bylaws governing corporate activities. The collective essays in the book propose a new way of thinking about the legal system that should be of interest to policymakers and academic scholars alike. Moreover, the ideas presented here, if embodied in law, would augment a sustained increase in U.S. economic growth, improving living standards for U.S. residents and for many in the rest of the world

An empirical analysis of the interplay among bank competition, bank stability and regulation: a case study of banks in Zimbabwe

This study empirically examined the interconnection among bank competition, regulation and stability of eighteen Zimbabwean banks during the period 2011-2017. Zscore, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAD), and Loans market share and Deposits market share which are proxies for stability, regulation and competition respectively were examined firstly using the Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model. Model 1 used loans market share as a proxy for competition and model 2 used deposits market share instead. The stability test using Eigenvalue Stability Condition showed that the PVAR model is unstable. Secondly, the above variables and five bank specific variables (i.e., credit risk, management efficiency, liquidity, return on assets and bank size) were estimated using the Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) model. The study documents that competition positively contributed to stability and regulation negatively influenced the stability of the Zimbabwean banks. Meanwhile, bank size and credit risk have a negative relationship with stability; management efficiency and liquidity have a positive relationship. Return On Assets has a negative and positive relationship with stability in model 1 and model 2, respectively. The findings implied that to enhance stability, banks must experience a competitive environment, reasonably low minimum capital requirements and cautiously designed regulatory frameworks.Thesis (MCom) -- Faculty of Commerce, Economics and Economic History, 202