Prognostics-Based Two-Operator Competition for Maintenance and Service Part Logistics

Prognostics and timely maintenance of components are critical to the continuing operation of a system. By implementing prognostics, it is possible for the operator to maintain the system in the right place at the right time. However, the complexity in the real world makes near-zero downtime difficult to achieve partly because of a possible shortage of required service parts. This is realistic and quite important in maintenance practice. To coordinate with a prognostics-based maintenance schedule, the operator must decide when to order service parts and how to compete with other operators who also need the same parts. This research addresses a joint decision-making approach that assists two operators in making proactive maintenance decisions and strategically competing for a service part that both operators rely on for their individual operations. To this end, a maintenance policy involving competition in service part procurement is developed based on the Stackelberg game-theoretic model. Variations of the policy are formulated for three different scenarios and solved via either backward induction or genetic algorithm methods. Unlike the first two scenarios, the possibility for either of the operators being the leader in such competitions is considered in the third scenario. A numerical study on wind turbine operation is provided to demonstrate the use of the joint decision-making approach in maintenance and service part logistics

Integrated Systems Health Management as an Enabler for Condition Based Maintenance and Autonomic Logistics

Health monitoring systems have demonstrated the ability to detect potential failures in components and predict how long until a critical failure is likely to occur. Implementing these systems on fielded structures, aircraft, or other vehicles is often a struggle to prove cost savings or operational improvements beyond improved safety. A system architecture to identify how the health monitoring systems are integrated into fielded aircraft is developed to assess cost, operations, maintenance, and logistics trade-spaces. The efficiency of a health monitoring system is examined for impacts to the operation of a squadron of cargo aircraft revealing sensitivity to and tolerance for false alarms as a key factor in total system performance. The research focuses on the impacts of system-wide changes to several key metrics: materiel availability, materiel reliability, ownership cost, and mean downtime. Changes to theses system-wide variables include: diagnostic and prognostic error, false alarm sensitivity, supply methods and timing, maintenance manning, and maintenance repair window. Potential cost savings in maintenance and logistics processes are identified as well as increases in operational availability. The result of this research is the development of a tool to conduct trade-space analyses on the effects of health monitoring techniques on system performance and operations and maintenance costs

Modeling Preventive Maintenance in Complex Systems

This thesis presents an explicit consideration of the impacts of modeling decisions on the resulting maintenance planning. Incomplete data is common in maintenance planning, but is rarely considered explicitly. Robust optimization aims to minimize the impact of uncertainty--here, in contrast, I show how its impact can be explicitly quantified. Doing so allows decision makers to determine whether it is worthwhile to invest in reducing uncertainty about the system or the effect of maintenance. The thesis consists of two parts. Part I uses a case study to show how incomplete data arises and how the data can be used to derive models of a system. A case study based on the US Navy\u27s DDG-51 class of ships illustrates the approach. Analysis of maintenance effort and cost against time suggests that significant effort is expended on numerous small unscheduled maintenance tasks. Some of these corrective tasks are likely the result of deferring maintenance, and, ultimately decreasing the ship reliability. I use a series of graphical tests to identify the underlying failure characteristics of the ship class. The tests suggest that the class follows a renewal process, and can be modeled as a single unit, at least in terms of predicting system lifetime. Part II considers the impact of uncertainty and modeling decisions on preventive maintenance planning. I review the literature on multi-unit maintenance and provide a conceptual discussion of the impact of deferred maintenance on single and multi-unit systems. The single-unit assumption can be used without significant loss of accuracy when modeling preventive maintenance decisions, but leads to underestimating reliability and hence ultimately performance impacts in multi-unit systems. Next, I consider the two main approaches to modeling maintenance impact, Type I and Type II Kijima models and investigate the impact of maintenance level, maintenance interval, and system quality on system lifetime. I quantify the net present value obtained of the system under different maintenance strategies and show how modeling decisions and uncertainty affect how closely the actual system and maintenance policy approach the maximum net present value. Incorrect assumptions about the impact of maintenance on system aging have the most cost, while assumptions about design quality and maintenance level have significant but smaller impact. In these cases, it is generally better to underestimate quality, and to overestimate maintenance level

Optimization of maintenances following proof tests for the final element of a safety-instrumented system

2019 The Authors Safety-instrumented systems (SISs) have been widely installed to prevent accidental events and mitigate their consequences. Mechanical final elements of SISs often become vulnerable with time due to degradations, but the particulars in SIS operations and assessment impede the adaption of state-of-art research results on maintenances into this domain. This paper models the degradation of SIS final element as a stochastic process. Based on the observed information during a proof test, it is essential to determine an optimal maintenance strategy by choosing a preventive maintenance (PM) or corrective maintenance (CM), as well deciding what degree of mitigation of degradation is enough in case of a PM. When the reasonable initiation situation of a PM and the optimal maintenance degree are identified, lifetime cost of the final element can be minimized while keeping satisfying the integrity level requirement for the SIS. A numerical example is introduced to illustrate how the presenting methods are used to examine the effects of maintenance strategies on cost and the average probability of failure on demands (PFDavg) of a SIS. Intervals of the upcoming tests thus can be updated to provide maintenance crews with more clues on cost-effective tests without weakening safety

Mathematical maintenance models of vehicles’ equipment

Dissertation for obtaining a scientific degree of Doctor of Philosophy within the specialty 05.22.20 «Maintenance and repair of vehicles». – National Aviation University, Kyiv, 2018.The thesis addresses the critical scientific problem of creating the appropriate maintenance models for digital avionics systems and degrading equipment of vehicles, which increases the operational effectiveness of such systems significantly. The thesis research includes the analysis of the current state and models of digital avionics maintenance. The study describes the necessity for developing the mathematical maintenance models for redundant digital avionics systems, considering the discontinuous nature of their operation, continuous nature of in-flight testing, possibility of both permanent and intermittent failures and organization of several maintenance levels using various diagnostic tools for detecting both failure types. Another focus of the thesis is the analysis of modern trends and mathematical models of condition-based maintenance (CBM) of vehicles’ equipment. The necessity of developing new CBM mathematical models for degrading equipment of vehicles, considering the probabilities of correct and incorrect decisions when checking system suitability for use in the upcoming operation interval, and the possibility of joint determination of the optimum inspection schedule and replacement thresholds for systems that affect and do not affect safety have been substantiated. The scientific novelty of the primary results obtained in the course of the thesis research is as follows: 1. For the first time, mathematical models to evaluate the operational reliability indicators of continuously monitored line replaceable units/line replaceable modules (LRUs/LRMs) and redundant avionics systems over both finite and infinite time interval, which, unlike known models, consider the characteristics of both permanent and intermittent 2failures, have been developed. These models allow evaluating the impact of intermittent failures on the availability and mean time between unscheduled removals (MTBUR) of LRU/LRM. 2. For the first time, generalized expressions to calculate the average maintenance costs of redundant avionics systems, considering the impact of permanent and intermittent failures, have been developed for alternative maintenance options that differ by the number of maintenance levels (one, two or three), which allows choosing the optimal maintenance option during warranty and post-warranty periods. 3. For the first time, a mathematical model of CBM, based on condition monitoring at scheduled times has been developed, which, unlike the known models, considers the probabilities of correct and incorrect decisions made when checking system suitability. This model allows formulating the criteria of determining the optimal replacement threshold for each inspection time and substantially reduce the likelihood of system failure in the forthcoming interval of operation. 4. For the first time, generalized mathematical expressions to calculate the effectiveness indicators of CBM over a finite time interval, as well as the criteria of joint optimization of the inspection schedule and replacement thresholds for systems that affect or do not affect the safety, have been developed. These results allow significantly improve the availability, reduce average maintenance costs and reduce the number of inspections. The practical value of the results obtained in the thesis is as follows: 1. The techniques to calculate probabilistic and time-related indicators of maintenance effectiveness for digital avionics LRUs/LRMs over finite and infinite operating intervals have been developed. The proposed procedures allow to estimate the availability, operational reliability function (ORF), and mean time between unscheduled removals (MTBUR) of LRUs/LRMs during warranty and post-warranty maintenance periods for both federated avionics (FA) and integrated modular avionics (IMA) architectures; 2. A technique for minimizing the warranty maintenance cost of the redundant digital avionics systems has been developed, demonstrating (through the example of the ADIRS system of the Airbus A380 aircraft) that in the case of the optimal option of warranty maintenance, the average maintenance cost per aircraft decreases by 28 %; 33. A technique for minimizing the post-warranty maintenance cost of the redundant digital avionics systems has been developed. It demonstrates (through the example of the ADIRS system of the Airbus A380 aircraft) that a three-level maintenance option with an intermittent fault detector (IFD) at I and D levels, is optimal as it reduces the total expected maintenance costs by 11 times compared to a one-level option, and by over 8.5 times compared to a two-level option without IFD; 4. A technique for determining the optimal replacement thresholds when monitoring the condition of the degrading system at scheduled times has been developed, which allows to significantly reduce the system failure probability in the forthcoming interval of operation. 5. A technique for joint determination of the optimal replacement threshold and periodicity of suitability checking when monitoring the system condition has been developed, which allows to substantially increase the availability of systems while significantly reducing the number of inspections. The results of the thesis research may be used in the development and maintenance of FA and IMA systems, as well as degrading equipment of vehicles

Study on New Sampling Plans and Optimal Integration with Proactive Maintenance in Production Systems

Sampling plans are statistical process control (SPC) tools used mainly in production processes. They are employed to control processes by monitoring the quality of produced products and alerting for necessary adjustments or maintenance. Sampling is used when an undesirable change (shift) in a process is unobservable and needs time to discover. Basically, the shift occurs when an assignable cause affects the process. Wrong setups, defective raw materials, degraded components are examples of assignable causes. The assignable cause causes a variable (or attribute) quality characteristic to shift from the desired state to an undesired state. The main concern of sampling is to observe a process shift quickly by signaling a true alarm, at which, maintenance is performed to restore the process to its normal operating conditions. While responsive maintenance is performed if a shift is detected, proactive maintenance such as age-replacement is integrated with the design of sampling. A sampling plan is designed economically or economically-statistically. An economical design does not assess the system performance, whereas the economic-statistical design includes constraints on system performance such as the average outgoing quality and the effective production rate. The objective of this dissertation is to study sampling plans by attributes. Two studies are conducted in this dissertation. In the first study, a sampling model is developed for attribute inspection in a multistage system with multiple assignable causes that could propagate downstream. In the second study, an integrated model of sampling and maintenance with maintenance at the time of the false alarm is proposed. Most of the sampling plans are designed based on the occurrence of one assignable cause. Therefore, a sampling plan that allows two assignable causes to occur is developed in the first study. A multistage serial system of two unreliable machines with one assignable cause that could occur on each machine is assumed where the joint occurrence of assignable causes propagates the process\u27s shift to a higher value. As a result, the system state at any time is described by one in-control and three out-of-control states where the evolution from a state to another depends on the competencies between shifts. A stochastic methodology to model all competing scenarios is developed. This methodology forms a base that could be used if the number of machines and/or states increase. In the second study, an integrated model of sampling and scheduled maintenance is proposed. In addition to the two opportunities for maintenance at the true alarm and scheduled maintenance, an additional opportunity for preventive maintenance at the time of a false alarm is suggested. Since a false alarm could occur at any sampling time, preventive maintenance is assumed to increase with time. The effectiveness of the proposed model is compared to the effectiveness of separate models of scheduled maintenance and sampling. Inspired by the conducted studies, different topics of sampling and maintenance are proposed for future research. Two topics are suggested for integrating sampling with selective maintenance. The third topic is an extension of the first study where more than two shifts can occur simultaneously

Integrating modelling of maintenance policies within a stochastic hybrid automaton framework of dynamic reliability

The dependability assessment is a crucial activity for determining the availability, safety and maintainability of a system and establishing the best mitigation measures to prevent serious flaws and process interruptions. One of the most promising methodologies for the analysis of complex systems is Dynamic Reliability (also known as DPRA) with models that define explicitly the interactions between components and variables. Among the mathematical techniques of DPRA, Stochastic Hybrid Automaton (SHA) has been used to model systems characterized by continuous and discrete variables. Recently, a DPRA-oriented SHA modelling formalism, known as Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton (SHyFTA), has been formalized together with a software library (SHyFTOO) that simplifies the resolution of complex models. At the state of the art, SHyFTOO allows analyzing the dependability of multistate repairable systems characterized by a reactive maintenance policy. Exploiting the flexibility of SHyFTA, this paper aims to extend the tools’ functionalities to other well-known maintenance policies. To achieve this goal, the main features of the preventive, risk-based and condition-based maintenance policies will be analyzed and used to design a software model to integrate into the SHyFTOO. Finally, a case study to test and compare the results of the different maintenance policies will be illustrated

Optimum maintenance policy with Markov process,

Abstract This paper presents a method to find the optimum maintenance policy for a component. Random failures and failures due to deterioration are considered. Using Markov processes, the state probabilities are calculated and the optimal value of the mean time to preventive maintenance is determined by maximizing the availability of single component with respect to mean time to minimal preventive maintenance. Using the state probabilities, the problem is set up as Markov decision processes and an optimum maintenance policy using the policy iteration algorithm is determined. An example is used to illustrate the method. Maple V and Matlab software have been used to solve the equations

Maintenance Strategies Design and Assessment Using a Periodic Complexity Approach

People become more dependent on various devices, which do deteriorate over time and their operation becomes more complex. This leads to higher unexpected failure chance, which causes inconvenience, cost, time, and even lives. Therefore, an efficient maintenance strategy that reduces complexity should be established to ensure the system performs economically as designed without interruption. In the current research, a comprehensive novel approach is developed for designing and evaluating maintenance strategies that effectively reduce complexity in a cost efficient way with maximum availability and quality. A proper maintenance strategy application needs a rigorous failure definition. A new complexity based mathematical definition of failure is introduced that is able to model all failure types. A complexity-based metric, complication rate , is introduced to measure functionality degradation and gradual failure. Maintenance reduces the system complexity by system resetting via introducing periodicity. A metric for measuring the amount of periodicity introduced by maintenance strategy is developed. Developing efficient maintenance strategies that improve system performance criteria, requires developing the mathematical relationships between maintenance and quality, availability, and cost. The first relation relating the product quality to maintenance policy is developed using the virtual age concept. The aging intensity function is then deployed to develop the relation between maintenance and availability. The relation between maintenance and cost is formulated by investigating the maintenance effect on each cost element. The final step in maintenance policy design is finding the optimum periodicity level. Two approaches are investigated; weighted sum integrated with AHP and a comfort zones approach. Comfort zones is a new developed physical programming based optimization heuristic that captures designer preferences and limitations without substantial efforts in tweaking or calculating weights. A mining truck case study is presented to explain the application of the developed maintenance design approach and compare its results to the traditional reward renewal theory. It is shown that the developed approach is more capable of designing a maintenance policy that reduces complexity and simultaneously improves some other performance measures. This research explains that considering complexity reduction in maintenance policy design improves system functionality, and it can be achieved by simple industrially applicable approach

Determination of structural and damage detection system influencing parameters on the value of information

International audienceA method to determine the influencing parameters of a structural and Damage Detection System (DDS) is proposed based on the Value of Information (VoI) analysis. The VoI analysis utilizes the Bayesian pre-posterior decision theory to quantify the value of DDS for the structural integrity management during service life. First the influencing parameters of the structural system, such as deterioration type and rate are introduced for the performance of the prior probabilistic system model. Then the influencing parameters on the DDS performance, including number of sensors, sensor locations, measurement noise and the Type I error are investigated. The pre-posterior probabilistic model is computed utilizing the Bayes' theorem to update the prior system model with the damage indication information. Finally, the value of DDS is quantified as the difference between the maximum utility obtained in pre-posterior and prior analysis based on the decision tree analysis, comprising structural probabilistic models, consequences, as well as benefit and costs analysis associated with and without monitoring. With the developed approach, a case study on a statically determinate Pratt truss bridge girder is carried out to validate the method. The analysis shows that the deterioration rate is the most sensitive parameter on the effect of relative VoI over the whole service life. Furthermore, it shows that more sensors do not necessarily lead to a higher relative VoI; only specific sensor locations near the highest utilized components lead to a high relative VoI; measurement noise and the Type I error should be controlled and be as small as possible. An optimal sensor employment with highest relative VoI is found. Moreover, it is found that the proposed method can be a powerful tool to develop optimal service life maintenance strategies-before implementation-for similar bridges and to optimize the DDS settings and sensor configuration for minimum expected costs and risks