Mitigating Epidemics through Mobile Micro-measures

Epidemics of infectious diseases are among the largest threats to the quality of life and the economic and social well-being of developing countries. The arsenal of measures against such epidemics is well-established, but costly and insufficient to mitigate their impact. In this paper, we argue that mobile technology adds a powerful weapon to this arsenal, because (a) mobile devices endow us with the unprecedented ability to measure and model the detailed behavioral patterns of the affected population, and (b) they enable the delivery of personalized behavioral recommendations to individuals in real time. We combine these two ideas and propose several strategies to generate such recommendations from mobility patterns. The goal of each strategy is a large reduction in infections, with a small impact on the normal course of daily life. We evaluate these strategies over the Orange D4D dataset and show the benefit of mobile micro-measures, even if only a fraction of the population participates. These preliminary results demonstrate the potential of mobile technology to complement other measures like vaccination and quarantines against disease epidemics.Comment: Presented at NetMob 2013, Bosto

Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics

Funding: This work was supported by the Isaac Newton Institute (EPSRC grant no. EP/R014604/1). MEK was supported by grants from The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw), grant number 10430022010001, and grant number 91216062, and by the H2020 Project 101003480 (CORESMA). RNT was supported by the UKRI, grant number EP/V053507/1. GR was supported by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) project reference 131_596787873. and by the VERDI project 101045989 funded by the European Union. LP and CO are funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant 202562/Z/16/Z). LP is also supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1) and by The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence. HBS is funded by the Wellcome Trust and Royal Society (202562/Z/16/Z), and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. DV had support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development of Brazil (CNPq - Refs. 441057/2020-9, 424141/2018-3, 309569/2019-2). FS is supported by the UKRI through the JUNIPER modelling consortium (grant number MR/V038613/1). EF is supported by UKRI (Medical Research Council)/Department of Health and Social Care (National Insitute of Health Research) MR/V028618/1. JPG's work was supported by funding from the UK Health Security Agency and the UK Department of Health and Social Care.Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from this and previous epidemics are used to highlight the challenges for future pandemic control. We consider the availability and use of data, as well as the need for correct parameterisation and calibration for different model frameworks. We discuss challenges that arise in describing and distinguishing between different interventions, within different modelling structures, and allowing both within and between host dynamics. We also highlight challenges in modelling the health economic and political aspects of interventions. Given the diversity of these challenges, a broad variety of interdisciplinary expertise is needed to address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological and social insights, and including health economics and communication skills. Addressing these challenges for the future requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together with close communication between scientists and policy makers.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Network Alignment: Theory, Algorithms, and Applications

Networks are central in the modeling and analysis of many large-scale human and technical systems, and they have applications in diverse fields such as computer science, biology, social sciences, and economics. Recently, network mining has been an active area of research. In this thesis, we study several related network-mining problems, from three different perspectives: the modeling and theory perspective, the computational perspective, and the application perspective. In the bulk of this thesis, we focus on network alignment, where the data provides two (or more) partial views of the network, and where the node labels are sometimes ambiguous. Network alignment has applications in social-network reconciliation and de-anonymization, protein-network alignment in biology, and computer vision. In the first part of this thesis, we investigate the feasibility of network alignment with a random-graph model. This random-graph model generates two (or several) correlated networks, and lets the two networks to overlap only partially. For a particular alignment, we define a cost function for structural mismatch. We show that the minimization of the proposed cost function (assuming that we have access to infinite computational power), with high probability, results in an alignment that recovers the set of shared nodes between the two networks, and that also recovers the true matching between the shared nodes. The most scalable network-alignment approaches use ideas from percolation theory, where a matched node-couple infects its neighboring couples that are additional potential matches. In the second part of this thesis, we propose a new percolation-based network-alignment algorithm that can match large networks by using only the network structure and a handful of initially pre-matched node-couples called seed set. We characterize a phase transition in matching performance as a function of the seed-set size. In the third part of this thesis, we consider two important application areas of network mining in biology and public health. The first application area is percolation-based network alignment of protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks in biology. The alignment of biological networks has many uses, such as the detection of conserved biological network motifs, the prediction of protein interactions, and the reconstruction of phylogenetic trees. Network alignment can be used to transfer biological knowledge between species. We introduce a new global pairwise-network alignment algorithm for PPI networks, called PROPER. The PROPER algorithm shows higher accuracy and speed compared to other global network-alignment methods. We also extend PROPER to the global multiple-network alignment problem. We introduce a new algorithm, called MPROPER, for matching multiple networks. Finally, we explore IsoRank, one of the first and most referenced global pairwise-network alignment algorithms. Our second application area is the control of epidemic processes. We develop and model strategies for mitigating an epidemic in a large-scale dynamic contact network. More precisely, we study epidemics of infectious diseases by (i) modeling the spread of epidemics on a network by using many pieces of information about the mobility and behavior of a population; and by (ii) designing personalized behavioral recommendations for individuals, in order to mitigate the effect of epidemics on that network

Reconciling Techno-simplicity and Eco-complexity for future food security

Ecological intensification has been proposed as a paradigm for ensuring global food security while preserving biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. Ecologicalintensification was originally coined to promote precise site-specific farming practices aimed at reducing yield gaps, while avoiding negative environmental impacts (techno-simplicity). Recently, it has been extended to stress the importance of landscape complexity to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem services (eco-complexity). While these perspectives on ecological intensification may seem distinct, they are not incompatible and should be interwoven to create more comprehensive and practical solutions. Here, we argue that designing cropping systems to be more diverse, across space and time would be an effective route to accomplish environmentally-friendly intensification of crop production. Such a novel approach will require better integration of knowledge at the landscape level for increasing agro-biodiversity(focused on interventions outside fields) with strategies diversifying croppingsystems to manage weeds and pests (focused on interventions inside fields).Fil: Poggio, Santiago Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Departamento de Producción Vegetal. Cátedra de Producción Vegetal; ArgentinaFil: Macfadyen, Sarina. CSIRO; AustraliaFil: Bohan, David A.. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique; Franci

A Survey of COVID-19 in Public Transportation: Transmission Risk, Mitigation and Prevention

The COVID-19 pandemic is posing significant challenges to public transport operators by drastically reducing demand while also requiring them to implement measures that minimize risks to the health of the passengers. While the collective scientific understanding of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and COVID-19 pandemic are rapidly increasing, currently there is a lack of understanding of how the COVID-19 relates to public transport operations. This article presents a comprehensive survey of the current research on COVID-19 transmission mechanisms and how they relate to public transport. We critically assess literature through a lens of disaster management and survey the main transmission mechanisms, forecasting, risks, mitigation, and prevention mechanisms. Social distancing and control on passenger density are found to be the most effective mechanisms. Computing and digital technology can support risk control. Based on our survey, we draw guidelines for public transport operators and highlight open research challenges to establish a research roadmap for the path forward.Peer reviewe

Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks.

Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of different control strategies. In this paper, we tackle this question with an extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of mitigation parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model to reproduce and explain empirical data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lockdown is an effective pandemic mitigation measure, a combination of social distancing and early contact tracing can achieve similar mitigation synergistically, while keeping lower isolation rates. This quantitative understanding can support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model

Are you getting sick? Predicting influenza-like symptoms using human mobility behaviors

Understanding and modeling the mobility of individuals is of paramount importance for public health. In particular, mobility characterization is key to predict the spatial and temporal diffusion of human-transmitted infections. However, the mobility behavior of a person can also reveal relevant information about her/his health conditions. In this paper, we study the impact of people mobility behaviors for predicting the future presence of flu-like and cold symptoms (i.e. fever, sore throat, cough, shortness of breath, headache, muscle pain, malaise, and cold). To this end, we use the mobility traces from mobile phones and the daily self-reported flu-like and cold symptoms of 29 individuals from February 20, 2013 to March 21, 2013. First of all, we demonstrate that daily symptoms of an individual can be predicted by using his/her mobility trace characteristics (e.g. total displacement, radius of gyration, number of unique visited places, etc.). Then, we present and validate models that are able to successfully predict the future presence of symptoms by analyzing the mobility patterns of our individuals. The proposed methodology could have a societal impact opening the way to customized mobile phone applications, which may detect and suggest to the user specific actions in order to prevent disease spreading and minimize the risk of contagion