Geodatabase-assisted storm surge modeling

Tropical cyclone-generated storm surge frequently causes catastrophic damage in communities along the Gulf of Mexico. The prediction of landfalling or hypothetical storm surge magnitudes in U.S. Gulf Coast regions remains problematic, in part, because of the dearth of historic event parameter data, including accurate records of storm surge magnitude (elevation) at locations along the coast from hurricanes. While detailed historical records exist that describe hurricane tracks, these data have rarely been correlated with the resulting storm surge, limiting our ability to make statistical inferences, which are needed to fully understand the vulnerability of the U.S. Gulf Coast to hurricane-induced storm surge hazards. This dissertation addresses the need for reliable statistical storm surge estimation by proposing a probabilistic geodatabase-assisted methodology to generate a storm surge surface based on hurricane location and intensity parameters on a single desktop computer. The proposed methodology draws from a statistically representative synthetic tropical cyclone dataset to estimate hurricane track patterns and storm surge elevations. The proposed methodology integrates four modules: tropical cyclone genesis, track propagation, storm surge estimation, and a geodatabase. Implementation of the developed methodology will provide a means to study and improve long-term tropical cyclone activity patterns and predictions. Specific contributions are made to the current state of the art through each of the four modules. In the genesis module, improved representative data from historical genesis populations are achieved through implementation of a stratified-Monte-Carlo sampling method to simulate genesis locations for the North Atlantic Basin, avoiding potential non-representative clustering of sampled genesis locations. In the track module, the improved synthetic genesis locations are used as the starting point for a track location and intensity methodology that incorporates storm strength parameters into the synthetic tracks and improves the positional quality of synthetic tracks. In the surge module, high-resolution, computationally intensive storm surge model results are probabilistically integrated in a computationally fast-running platform. In the geodatabase module, historic and synthetic tropical cyclone genesis, track, and surge elevation data are combined for efficient storage and retrieval of storm surge data

Implementation of a state of the art automated system for the production of cloud/water vapor motion winds from geostationary satellites

The research objectives in this proposal were part of a continuing program at UW-CIMSS to develop and refine an automated geostationary satellite winds processing system which can be utilized in both research and operational environments. The majority of the originally proposed tasks were successfully accomplished, and in some cases the progress exceeded the original goals. Much of the research and development supported by this grant resulted in upgrades and modifications to the existing automated satellite winds tracking algorithm. These modifications were put to the test through case study demonstrations and numerical model impact studies. After being successfully demonstrated, the modifications and upgrades were implemented into the NESDIS algorithms in Washington DC, and have become part of the operational support. A major focus of the research supported under this grant attended to the continued development of water vapor tracked winds from geostationary observations. The fully automated UW-CIMSS tracking algorithm has been tuned to provide complete upper-tropospheric coverage from this data source, with data set quality close to that of operational cloud motion winds. Multispectral water vapor observations were collected and processed from several different geostationary satellites. The tracking and quality control algorithms were tuned and refined based on ground-truth comparisons and case studies involving impact on numerical model analyses and forecasts. The results have shown the water vapor motion winds are of good quality, complement the cloud motion wind data, and can have a positive impact in NWP on many meteorological scales

Statistical Postprocessing of Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasts using Machine Learning

Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical models of the physics of the atmosphere. These models are usually run multiple times based on randomly perturbed initial conditions. The resulting so-called ensemble forecasts represent distinct scenarios of the future and provide probabilistic projections. However, these forecasts are subject to systematic errors such as biases and they are often unable to quantify the forecast uncertainty adequately. Statistical postprocessing methods aim to exploit structure in past pairs of forecasts and observations to correct these errors when applied to future forecasts. In this thesis, we develop statistical postprocessing methods based on the central paradigm of probabilistic forecasting, that is, to maximize the sharpness subject to calibration. A wide range of statistical and machine learning methods is presented with a focus on novel neural network-based postprocessing techniques. In particular, we analyze the aggregation of distributional forecasts from neural network ensembles and develop statistical postprocessing methods for ensemble forecasts of wind gusts, with a focus on European winter storms

Hydrometeorological Extremes and Its Local Impacts on Human-Environmental Systems

This Special Issue of Atmosphere focuses on hydrometeorological extremes and their local impacts on human–environment systems. Particularly, we accepted submissions on the topics of observational and model-based studies that could provide useful information for infrastructure design, decision making, and policy making to achieve our goals of enhancing the resilience of human–environment systems to climate change and increased variability

Electromagnetic Radiation

The application of electromagnetic radiation in modern life is one of the most developing technologies. In this timely book, the authors comprehensively treat two integrated aspects of electromagnetic radiation, theory and application. It covers a wide scope of practical topics, including medical treatment, telecommunication systems, and radiation effects. The book sections have clear presentation, some state of the art examples, which makes this book an indispensable reference book for electromagnetic radiation applications

Proceedings of the XXVIIIth TELEMAC User Conference 18-19 October 2022

Hydrodynamic

Brazilian extreme wind climate

Uma característica importante da otimização dos processos de projeto em engenharia civil é a demanda pelo aperfeiçoamento da precisão das estimativas das cargas de projeto. As cargas de projeto devidas ao vento são baseadas em análises de registros de dados climatológicos para as quais modelos estatísticos são desenvolvidos. Tais modelos propõem níveis de carga com certas probabilidades de ocorrência durante um determinado período de retorno, ou intervalo médio de recorrência. Desde 1988, a NBR 6123: Forças devidas ao vento em edificações, a norma brasileira de cargas de vento, tem equilibrado a competição das necessidades de segurança e de conforto do usuário contra os custos de construção da cada vez mais alta silhueta urbana da nação. O mapa de isopletas do parâmetro de velocidade básica regional é o ponto inicial para todos os cálculos de cargas de projeto devidas ao vento na maior nação da América do Sul, com velocidades de vento regionais derivadas da distribuição de Fréchet, utilizando as máximas velocidades de rajada anuais equivalentes de 1950 a 1975 observadas, em aeródromos brasileiros. Além do potencial de utilizar mais de 40 anos de novos dados, incluindo dados da rede de observação automatizada do INMET, avanços nas comunidades científicas de engenharia do vento, meteorologia e estatística permitem o desenvolvimento de modelos climáticos mais detalhados e robustos. Há, também, uma crescente necessidade de separar os eventos de tempestades de vento em eventos não- sinóticos e sinóticos, devido às suas diferentes características. O estudo produz modelos climáticos regionais de ventos extremos atualizados em todo o Brasil, para serem usados tanto em casos de estados limite último e de serviço do projeto. Dados meteorológicos das duas maiores redes meteorológicas brasileiras, adquiridos de diversas fontes, foram utilizados, mas apenas após um exame completo da qualidade de cada fonte. Investigações foram feitas com relação a metadados históricos e atuais (altura, localização, tipo de anemômetro) de cada estação, com resultados variados. Correções de velocidades do vento foram feitas para terreno e altura, onde necessário. Algoritmos robustos para a separação de velocidades de vento pico não-sinóticas, sinóticas e duvidosas foram desenvolvidos e aplicados a uma série histórica de dados de 692 estações meteorológicas de superfície para gerar conjuntos de valores extremos para uma análise de valor extremo com Método de Tempestades Independentes modificado. Constatou-se que os ventos não-sinóticos são dominantes na maioria do Brasil para todos os períodos de retorno. Parâmetros meteorológicos relacionados a ventos extremos não-sinóticos e sinóticos foram mapeados por todo o país. Um mapa de isopletas de velocidades básicas do vento foi proposto para uma versão atualizada da NBR 6123, acompanhado dos fatores probabilísticos atualizados para uma DGVE Tipo I – Distribuição de Gumbel. Recomendações chave incluem a necessidade de maiores investigações sobre as características de ventos não-sinóticos no Brasil e o melhoramento dos registros de metadados por parte das organizações meteorológicas.A critical feature of the continual optimisation of civil engineering design processes is the demand to improve accuracy of design load estimations. Design wind loads are based on analyses of recorded historical meteorological data for which statistical models are developed. Such models propose load levels of certain probabilities of occurrence over a particular return period, or mean recurrence interval. Since 1988, NBR 6123: Forças devidas ao vento em edificações, Brazil’s wind loading code, has balanced the competing needs of public safety and tenant comfort against construction costs of the nation’s ever-growing skyline. The isopleth map of the regional basic velocity parameter is the basis for all wind design load calculations in South America’s largest nation, with regional wind speeds derived from the Fréchet distribution of annual maxima equivalent gust speeds from 1950 to 1975 observed at Brazilian aerodromes. Besides the potential to utilise more than 40 years of new data, including data from INMET’s automated observing network, advances across the scientific communities of wind engineering, meteorology and statistics allow for the development of more detailed and robust climatic models. There is also a growing need to separate wind storm events into non-synoptic and synoptic events due to their different characteristics. The study produces updated regional extreme wind climate models across Brazil to be used for both serviceability and ultimate design load cases. Meteorological data from the two Brazilian meteorological networks acquired from several sources were utilised, but only after thorough examination of the quality of each source. Investigations were made regarding historical and current metadata (height, location, anemometer type) of each station with mixed success. Corrections to wind speeds were made for terrain and height where necessary. Robust algorithms for the separation of non-synoptic, synoptic and suspicious peak wind speeds were developed and applied to time-series data from 692 surface weather stations to generate sets of extreme values for a modified Method of Independent Storms extreme value analysis. Non-synoptic winds were found to dominant the majority of Brazil for all return periods. Meteorological parameters relating to non-synoptic and synoptic extreme winds were mapped across the country. An isopleth map of basic wind speeds was proposed for an updated version of NBR 6123, with accompanying updated probabilistic factors for a GEVD Type I – Gumbel distribution. Key recommendations include the need for further investigations into non-synoptic wind characteristics in Brazil and the improvement of metadata records by meteorological organisations

Aufsätze zu Internationalem Handel, Prognose und dem Containerschiffnetzwerk

Seaborne vessels transport approximately 70% of global trade by value according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The grounding of the 400-meter long container ship “Ever Given” and the ensuing blockage of the Suez Canal for six days in March 2021 clearly demonstrated the importance of a wellfunctioning maritime transport sector for the flow of goods. Container ships play a particularly crucial role in this transportation network as they transport 66% of the maritime cargo by value. At the same time, the Automatic Identification System (AIS), which was developed to avoid collisions at sea using high frequency radio signals, generates extremely recent information on ships’ positions, course and draught. The essays below have in common that they utilize the daily positions of all approximately 6,000 container ships after the year 2015 for economic analysis. The studies rely on the data to develop and test methods for forecasting trade flows, to investigate the impact of oil prices on trade costs and to quantify the disruptive effects of tropical cyclones and piracy on maritime shipping and trade. The first chapter uses the AIS data to derive 880 time series at the port and sea area level to reflect seaborne cargo flows. Using a combination of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and the partial least squares, the paper demonstrates that these time series can reliably forecast unilateral and bilateral trade flows. The second chapter dervies a highly dimensional data for shipping that sllows the study of trade costs from container shipping. Oil prices are caculated to increase the time of transportation and increase freight rates. The following chapter investigates the effects of tropical cyclones on internaitonal trade and the container shipping network. In the last chapter, research finds that maritime piracy reduces global trade flows

Modelling the Eddy Pattern in the harbour of Zeebrugge

Hydrodynamic

Hazard uncertainty and related damage potentials of extra-tropical storms

Extra--tropical winter windstorms are among the most loss--intensive natural hazards in Europe. This thesis is dedicated to advance the understanding of these hazardous events and their uncertainty in various aspects. These aspects include the serial clustering and spatial variability of storm events, the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds associated with windstorms and an impact assessment of windstorms both in a climatological as well as from a loss--related perspective. The recurring element in all studies are large--scale drivers (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO) which are linked to different features of extra--tropical windstorms, e.g. the inter--annual variability. It can be shown that large--scale drivers are able to explain a considerable amount of variability of windstorms. Seasonal forecast ensemble hindcasts are used to create a physical consistent virtual reality of more than 1500 years. Thus, the uncertainty of these extreme events can be estimated more accurately compared to using century--long reanalysis. This large sample size can also be used to estimate potential extremes with respect to intensity and severity of windstorms more accurately. The findings of these studies are presented in five scientific papers which are included as five chapters in this submitted thesis