Data science for buildings, a multi-scale approach bridging occupants to smart-city energy planning

In a context of global carbon emission reduction goals, buildings have been identified to detain valuable energy-saving abilities. With the exponential increase of smart, connected building automation systems, massive amounts of data are now accessible for analysis. These coupled with powerful data science methods and machine learning algorithms present a unique opportunity to identify untapped energy-saving potentials from field information, and effectively turn buildings into active assets of the built energy infrastructure.However, the diversity of building occupants, infrastructures, and the disparities in collected information has produced disjointed scales of analytics that make it tedious for approaches to scale and generalize over the building stock.This coupled with the lack of standards in the sector has hindered the broader adoption of data science practices in the field, and engendered the following questioning:How can data science facilitate the scaling of approaches and bridge disconnected spatiotemporal scales of the built environment to deliver enhanced energy-saving strategies?This thesis focuses on addressing this interrogation by investigating data-driven, scalable, interpretable, and multi-scale approaches across varying types of analytical classes. The work particularly explores descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics to connect occupants, buildings, and urban energy planning together for improved energy performances.First, a novel multi-dimensional data-mining framework is developed, producing distinct dimensional outlines supporting systematic methodological approaches and refined knowledge discovery. Second, an automated building heat dynamics identification method is put forward, supporting large-scale thermal performance examination of buildings in a non-intrusive manner. The method produced 64\% of good quality model fits, against 14\% close, and 22\% poor ones out of 225 Dutch residential buildings. %, which were open-sourced in the interest of developing benchmarks. Third, a pioneering hierarchical forecasting method was designed, bridging individual and aggregated building load predictions in a coherent, data-efficient fashion. The approach was evaluated over hierarchies of 37, 140, and 383 nodal elements and showcased improved accuracy and coherency performances against disjointed prediction systems.Finally, building occupants and urban energy planning strategies are investigated under the prism of uncertainty. In a neighborhood of 41 Dutch residential buildings, occupants were determined to significantly impact optimal energy community designs in the context of weather and economic uncertainties.Overall, the thesis demonstrated the added value of multi-scale approaches in all analytical classes while fostering best data-science practices in the sector from benchmarks and open-source implementations

Cyber-Physical Systems Improving Building Energy Management: Digital Twin and Artificial Intelligence

The research explores the potential of digital-twin-based methods and approaches aimed at achieving an intelligent optimization and automation system for energy management of a residential district through the use of three-dimensional data model integrated with Internet of Things, artificial intelligence and machine learning. The case study is focused on Rinascimento III in Rome, an area consisting of 16 eight-floor buildings with 216 apartment units powered by 70% of self-renewable energy. The combined use of integrated dynamic analysis algorithms has allowed the evaluation of different scenarios of energy efficiency intervention aimed at achieving a virtuous energy management of the complex, keeping the actual internal comfort and climate conditions. Meanwhile, the objective is also to plan and deploy a cost-effective IT (information technology) infrastructure able to provide reliable data using edge-computing paradigm. Therefore, the developed methodology led to the evaluation of the effectiveness and efficiency of integrative systems for renewable energy production from solar energy necessary to raise the threshold of self-produced energy, meeting the nZEB (near zero energy buildings) requirements

From Data to Actions in Intelligent Transportation Systems: A Prescription of Functional Requirements for Model Actionability

Advances in Data Science permeate every field of Transportation Science and Engineering, resulting in developments in the transportation sector that are data-driven. Nowadays, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) could be arguably approached as a “story” intensively producing and consuming large amounts of data. A diversity of sensing devices densely spread over the infrastructure, vehicles or the travelers’ personal devices act as sources of data flows that are eventually fed into software running on automatic devices, actuators or control systems producing, in turn, complex information flows among users, traffic managers, data analysts, traffic modeling scientists, etc. These information flows provide enormous opportunities to improve model development and decision-making. This work aims to describe how data, coming from diverse ITS sources, can be used to learn and adapt data-driven models for efficiently operating ITS assets, systems and processes; in other words, for data-based models to fully become actionable. Grounded in this described data modeling pipeline for ITS, we define the characteristics, engineering requisites and challenges intrinsic to its three compounding stages, namely, data fusion, adaptive learning and model evaluation. We deliberately generalize model learning to be adaptive, since, in the core of our paper is the firm conviction that most learners will have to adapt to the ever-changing phenomenon scenario underlying the majority of ITS applications. Finally, we provide a prospect of current research lines within Data Science that can bring notable advances to data-based ITS modeling, which will eventually bridge the gap towards the practicality and actionability of such models.This work was supported in part by the Basque Government for its funding support through the EMAITEK program (3KIA, ref. KK-2020/00049). It has also received funding support from the Consolidated Research Group MATHMODE (IT1294-19) granted by the Department of Education of the Basque Government

Developing a Digital Twin at Building and City Levels: A Case Study of West Cambridge Campus

A digital twin (DT) refers to a digital replica of physical assets, processes, and systems. DTs integrate artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data analytics to create living digital simulation models that are able to learn and update from multiple sources as well as represent and predict the current and future conditions of physical counterparts. However, current activities related to DTs are still at an early stage with respect to buildings and other infrastructure assets from an architectural and engineering/construction point of view. Less attention has been paid to the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase, which is the longest time span in the asset life cycle. A systematic and clear architecture verified with practical use cases for constructing a DT would be the foremost step for effective operation and maintenance of buildings and cities. According to current research about multitier architectures, this paper presents a system architecture for DTs that is specifically designed at both the building and city levels. Based on this architecture, a DT demonstrator of the West Cambridge site of the University of Cambridge in the UK was developed that integrates heterogeneous data sources, supports effective data querying and analysis, supports decision-making processes in O&M management, and further bridges the gap between human relationships with buildings/cities. This paper aims at going through the whole process of developing DTs in building and city levels from the technical perspective and sharing lessons learned and challenges involved in developing DTs in real practices. Through developing this DT demonstrator, the results provide a clear roadmap and present particular DT research efforts for asset management practitioners, policymakers, and researchers to promote the implementation and development of DT at the building and city levels

Simulation of site-specific irrigation control strategies with sparse input data

Crop and irrigation water use efficiencies may be improved by managing irrigation application timing and volumes using physical and agronomic principles. However, the crop water requirement may be spatially variable due to different soil properties and genetic variations in the crop across the field. Adaptive control strategies can be used to locally control water applications in response to in-field temporal and spatial variability with the aim of maximising both crop development and water use efficiency. A simulation framework ‘VARIwise’ has been created to aid the development, evaluation and management of spatially and temporally varied adaptive irrigation control strategies (McCarthy et al., 2010). VARIwise enables alternative control strategies to be simulated with different crop and environmental conditions and at a range of spatial resolutions. An iterative learning controller and model predictive controller have been implemented in VARIwise to improve the irrigation of cotton. The iterative learning control strategy involves using the soil moisture response to the previous irrigation volume to adjust the applied irrigation volume applied at the next irrigation event. For field implementation this controller has low data requirements as only soil moisture data is required after each irrigation event. In contrast, a model predictive controller has high data requirements as measured soil and plant data are required at a high spatial resolution in a field implementation. Model predictive control involves using a calibrated model to determine the irrigation application and/or timing which results in the highest predicted yield or water use efficiency. The implementation of these strategies is described and a case study is presented to demonstrate the operation of the strategies with various levels of data availability. It is concluded that in situations of sparse data, the iterative learning controller performs significantly better than a model predictive controller

Air pollution and livestock production

The air in a livestock farming environment contains high concentrations of dust particles and gaseous pollutants. The total inhalable dust can enter the nose and mouth during normal breathing and the thoracic dust can reach into the lungs. However, it is the respirable dust particles that can penetrate further into the gas-exchange region, making it the most hazardous dust component. Prolonged exposure to high concentrations of dust particles can lead to respiratory health issues for both livestock and farming staff. Ammonia, an example of a gaseous pollutant, is derived from the decomposition of nitrous compounds. Increased exposure to ammonia may also have an effect on the health of humans and livestock. There are a number of technologies available to ensure exposure to these pollutants is minimised. Through proactive means, (the optimal design and management of livestock buildings) air quality can be improved to reduce the likelihood of risks associated with sub-optimal air quality. Once air problems have taken hold, other reduction methods need to be applied utilising a more reactive approach. A key requirement for the control of concentration and exposure of airborne pollutants to an acceptable level is to be able to conduct real-time measurements of these pollutants. This paper provides a review of airborne pollution including methods to both measure and control the concentration of pollutants in livestock buildings

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Predictive Maintenance Support System in Industry 4.0 Scenario

The fourth industrial revolution that is being witnessed nowadays, also known as Industry 4.0, is heavily related to the digitization of manufacturing systems and the integration of different technologies to optimize manufacturing. By combining data acquisition using specific sensors and machine learning algorithms to analyze this data and predict a failure before it happens, Predictive Maintenance is a critical tool to implement towards reducing downtime due to unpredicted stoppages caused by malfunctions. Based on the reality of Commercial Specialty Tires factory at Continental Mabor - Indústria de Pneus, S.A., the present work describes several problems faced regarding equipment maintenance. Taking advantage of the information gathered from studying the processes incorporated in the factory, it is designed a solution model for applying predictive maintenance in these processes. The model is divided into two primary layers, hardware, and software. Concerning hardware, sensors and respective applications are delineated. In terms of software, techniques of data analysis namely machine learning algorithms are described so that the collected data is studied to detect possible failures