Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis and Decision Support for Complex Models of Physical Systems with Application to Production Optimisation of Subsurface Energy Resources

Important decision making problems are increasingly addressed using computer models for complex real world systems. However, there are major limitations to their direct use including: their complex structure; large numbers of inputs and outputs; the presence of many sources of uncertainty; which is further compounded by their long evaluation times. Bayesian methodology for the analysis of computer models has been extensively developed to perform inference for the physical systems. In this thesis, the Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology is extended to provide robust decision support under uncertainty. Bayesian emulators are employed as a fast and efficient statistical approximation for computer models. We establish a hierarchical Bayesian emulation framework that exploits known constrained simulator behaviour in constituents of the decision support utility function. In addition, novel Bayesian emulation methodology is developed for computer models with structured partial discontinuities. We advance the crucial uncertainty quantification methodology to perform a robust decision analysis developing a technique to assess and remove linear transformations of the utility function induced by sources of uncertainty to which conclusions are invariant, as well as incorporating structural model discrepancy and decision implementation error. These are encompassed within a novel iterative decision support procedure which acknowledges utility function uncertainty resulting from the separation of the analysts and final decision makers to deliver a robust class of decisions, along with any additional information, for further consideration. The complete toolkit is successfully demonstrated via an application to the problem of optimal petroleum field development, including an international and commercially important benchmark challenge

Computational intelligence techniques for HVAC systems: a review

Buildings are responsible for 40% of global energy use and contribute towards 30% of the total CO2 emissions. The drive to reduce energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions from buildings has acted as a catalyst in the development of advanced computational methods for energy efficient design, management and control of buildings and systems. Heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are the major source of energy consumption in buildings and an ideal candidate for substantial reductions in energy demand. Significant advances have been made in the past decades on the application of computational intelligence (CI) techniques for HVAC design, control, management, optimization, and fault detection and diagnosis. This article presents a comprehensive and critical review on the theory and applications of CI techniques for prediction, optimization, control and diagnosis of HVAC systems.The analysis of trends reveals the minimization of energy consumption was the key optimization objective in the reviewed research, closely followed by the optimization of thermal comfort, indoor air quality and occupant preferences. Hardcoded Matlab program was the most widely used simulation tool, followed by TRNSYS, EnergyPlus, DOE–2, HVACSim+ and ESP–r. Metaheuristic algorithms were the preferred CI method for solving HVAC related problems and in particular genetic algorithms were applied in most of the studies. Despite the low number of studies focussing on MAS, as compared to the other CI techniques, interest in the technique is increasing due to their ability of dividing and conquering an HVAC optimization problem with enhanced overall performance. The paper also identifies prospective future advancements and research directions

Towards intelligent operation of future power system: bayesian deep learning based uncertainty modelling technique

The increasing penetration level of renewable energy resources (RES) in the power system brings fundamental changes of the system operating paradigms. In the future, the intermittent nature of RES and the corresponding smart grid technologies will lead to a much more volatile power system with higher level uncertainties. At the same time, as a result of the larger scale installation of advanced sensor devices in power system, power system engineers for the first time have the opportunity to gain insights from the influx of massive data sets in order to improve the system performance in various aspects. To this end, it is imperative to explore big data methodologies with the aim of exploring the uncertainty space within such complex data sets and thus supporting real-time decision-making in future power system. In this thesis, Bayesian Deep learning is investigated with the aim of exploring data-driven methodologies to deal with uncertainties which is in the following three aspects. (1) The first part of this thesis proposes a novel probabilistic day-ahead net load forecasting method to capture both epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty using Bayesian deep long short-term memory network. The proposed methodological framework employs clustering in sub-profiles and considers residential rooftop PV outputs as input features to enhance the performance of aggregated net load forecasting. Numerical experiments have been carried out based on fine-grained smart meter data from the Australian grid with separately recorded measurements of rooftop PV generation and loads. The results demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed scheme compared with a series of state-of-the-art methods and indicate the importance and effectiveness of sub-profile clustering and high PV visibility. (2) The second part of this thesis studies a novel Conditional Bayesian Deep Auto-Encoder (CBDAC) based security assessment framework to compute a confidence metric of the prediction. This informs not only the operator to judge whether the prediction can be trusted, but it also allows for judging whether the model needs updating. A case study based on IEEE 68-bus system demonstrates that CBDAC outperforms the state-of-the-art machine learning-based DSA methods and the models that need updating under different topologies can be effectively identified. Furthermore, the case study verifies that effective updating of the models is possible even with very limited data. (3) The last part of this thesis proposes a novel Bayesian Deep Reinforcement Learning-based resilient control approach for multi-energy micro-grid. In particular, the proposed approach replaces deterministic network in traditional Reinforcement Learning with Bayesian probabilistic network in order to obtain an approximation of the value function distribution, which effectively solves Q-value overestimation issue. The proposed model is able to provide both energy management during normal operating conditions and resilient control during extreme events in a multi-energy micro-grid system. Comparing with naive DDPG method and optimisation method, the effectiveness and importance of employing Bayesian Reinforcement Learning approach is investigated and illustrated across different operating scenarios. Case studies have shown that by using the Monte Carlo posterior mean of the Bayesian value function distribution instead of a deterministic estimation, the proposed BDDPG method achieves a near-optimum policy in a more stable process, which verifies the robustness and the practicability of the proposed approach.Open Acces

Fault Detection and Classification of a Single Phase Inverter Using Artificial Neural Networks

The detection of switching faults of power converters or the Circuit Under Test (CUT) is real-time important for safe and efficient usage. The CUT is a single-phase inverter. This thesis presents two unique methods that rely on backpropagation principles to solve classification problems with a two-layer network. These mathematical algorithms or proposed networks are able to diagnose single, double, triple, and multiple switching faults over different iterations representing range of frequencies. First, the fault detection and classification problems are formulated as neural network-based classification problems and the neural network design process is clearly described. Then, neural networks are trained over different epochs to perform fault detection or repeatedly trained with the training data until the error is reduced to a satisfactory level. The performance of neural networks for different test suites is examined using two evaluation metrics (classification accuracy and training error loss) from the standpoint of stability and convergence. The classification performance of the proposed neural network between normal and abnormal conditions is within the range of 93% and 100%. The simulation results show that the proposed network can detect faults quite efficiently, with the ability to differentiate between switching fault types. The results of this analysis on training error and accuracy are identified in tabular forms of Fault IDs and corresponding results based on different network designs and architecture

Advances in Computer Recognition, Image Processing and Communications, Selected Papers from CORES 2021 and IP&C 2021

As almost all human activities have been moved online due to the pandemic, novel robust and efficient approaches and further research have been in higher demand in the field of computer science and telecommunication. Therefore, this (reprint) book contains 13 high-quality papers presenting advancements in theoretical and practical aspects of computer recognition, pattern recognition, image processing and machine learning (shallow and deep), including, in particular, novel implementations of these techniques in the areas of modern telecommunications and cybersecurity

Machine learning of genomic profiles

Gegenstand dieser Arbeit ist das maschinelle Lernen und seine Anwendung auf genomische Profile. Maschinelles Lernen ist ein Teilbereich der Informatik, der sich mit der Analyse und dem Design von Algorithmen beschaftigt, die Regeln und Muster aus Datensätzen ableiten. Genomische Profile beschreiben Veränderungen der DNA, z.B. der Anzahl ihrer Kopien. Tumorerkrankungen werden oftmals von diesen genomischen Veränderungen hervorgerufen. Es werden verschiedene Verfahren des maschinellen Lernens auf ihre Anwendbarkeit in Bezug auf genomische Profile untersucht. Des Weiteren wird eine Verlustfunktion für Überlebenszeitdaten entworfen. Anschließend wird ein analytischer Bezugsrahmen entwickelt, um Aberrationsmuster zu finden, die mit einer speziellen Tumorerkrankung assoziiert sind. Der Bezugsrahmen umfaßt die Vorverarbeitung, Merkmalsselektion und Diskretisierung von genomischen Profilen sowie Strategien zum Umgang mit fehlenden Werten und eine mehrdimensionale Analyse. Abschließend folgen das Training und die Analyse des Klassifikators. In dieser Arbeit wird weiterhin eine Erklärungskomponente vorgestellt, die wichtige Merkmale für die Klassifikation eines Falles identifiziert und ein Maß für die Richtigkeit einer Klassifikation liefert. Solch eine Erklärungskomponente kann die Basis für die Integration eines Klassifikators , z.B. einer Support-Vektor-Maschine, in ein entscheidungsunterstützendes System sein. Die im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelten Methoden wurden erfolgreich zur Beantwortung von biologischen Fragestellungen wie der frühen Metastasierung oder der Mikrometastasierung angewandt und führten zur Entdeckung bisher unbekannter Tumormarker. Zusammenfassend zeigen die Ergebnisse der vorliegenden Arbeit, dass Verfahren des maschinellen Lernens zum Erkenntnisgewinn in Bezug auf genomische Veränderungen beitragen und Möglichkeiten zu einer weiteren Verbesserung der Therapie für Tumorpatienten aufzeigen

Proceedings of the 35th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling : July 20- 24, 2020 Bilbao, Basque Country, Spain

466 p.The InternationalWorkshop on Statistical Modelling (IWSM) is a reference workshop in promoting statistical modelling, applications of Statistics for researchers, academics and industrialist in a broad sense. Unfortunately, the global COVID-19 pandemic has not allowed holding the 35th edition of the IWSM in Bilbao in July 2020. Despite the situation and following the spirit of the Workshop and the Statistical Modelling Society, we are delighted to bring you the proceedings book of extended abstracts