Advances in Kriging-Based Autonomous X-Ray Scattering Experiments.

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging paradigm for scientific discovery, wherein measurement instruments are augmented with decision-making algorithms, allowing them to autonomously explore parameter spaces of interest. We have recently demonstrated a generalized approach to autonomous experimental control, based on generating a surrogate model to interpolate experimental data, and a corresponding uncertainty model, which are computed using a Gaussian process regression known as ordinary Kriging (OK). We demonstrated the successful application of this method to exploring materials science problems using x-ray scattering measurements at a synchrotron beamline. Here, we report several improvements to this methodology that overcome limitations of traditional Kriging methods. The variogram underlying OK is global and thus insensitive to local data variation. We augment the Kriging variance with model-based measures, for instance providing local sensitivity by including the gradient of the surrogate model. As with most statistical regression methods, OK minimizes the number of measurements required to achieve a particular model quality. However, in practice this may not be the most stringent experimental constraint; e.g. the goal may instead be to minimize experiment duration or material usage. We define an adaptive cost function, allowing the autonomous method to balance information gain against measured experimental cost. We provide synthetic and experimental demonstrations, validating that this improved algorithm yields more efficient autonomous data collection

Market-based Recommendation: Agents that Compete for Consumer Attention

The amount of attention space available for recommending suppliers to consumers on e-commerce sites is typically limited. We present a competitive distributed recommendation mechanism based on adaptive software agents for efficiently allocating the 'consumer attention space', or banners. In the example of an electronic shopping mall, the task is delegated to the individual shops, each of which evaluates the information that is available about the consumer and his or her interests (e.g. keywords, product queries, and available parts of a profile). Shops make a monetary bid in an auction where a limited amount of 'consumer attention space' for the arriving consumer is sold. Each shop is represented by a software agent that bids for each consumer. This allows shops to rapidly adapt their bidding strategy to focus on consumers interested in their offerings. For various basic and simple models for on-line consumers, shops, and profiles, we demonstrate the feasibility of our system by evolutionary simulations as in the field of agent-based computational economics (ACE). We also develop adaptive software agents that learn bidding strategies, based on neural networks and strategy exploration heuristics. Furthermore, we address the commercial and technological advantages of this distributed market-based approach. The mechanism we describe is not limited to the example of the electronic shopping mall, but can easily be extended to other domains

Hybridation of Bayesian networks and evolutionary algorithms for multi-objective optimization in an integrated product design and project management context

A better integration of preliminary product design and project management processes at early steps of system design is nowadays a key industrial issue. Therefore, the aim is to make firms evolve from classical sequential approach (first product design the project design and management) to new integrated approaches. In this paper, a model for integrated product/project optimization is first proposed which allows taking into account simultaneously decisions coming from the product and project managers. However, the resulting model has an important underlying complexity, and a multi-objective optimization technique is required to provide managers with appropriate scenarios in a reasonable amount of time. The proposed approach is based on an original evolutionary algorithm called evolutionary algorithm oriented by knowledge (EAOK). This algorithm is based on the interaction between an adapted evolutionary algorithm and a model of knowledge (MoK) used for giving relevant orientations during the search process. The evolutionary operators of the EA are modified in order to take into account these orientations. The MoK is based on the Bayesian Network formalism and is built both from expert knowledge and from individuals generated by the EA. A learning process permits to update probabilities of the BN from a set of selected individuals. At each cycle of the EA, probabilities contained into the MoK are used to give some bias to the new evolutionary operators. This method ensures both a faster and effective optimization, but it also provides the decision maker with a graphic and interactive model of knowledge linked to the studied project. An experimental platform has been developed to experiment the algorithm and a large campaign of tests permits to compare different strategies as well as the benefits of this novel approach in comparison with a classical EA

Incremental evolution strategy for function optimization

This paper presents a novel evolutionary approach for function optimization Incremental Evolution Strategy (IES). Two strategies are proposed. One is to evolve the input variables incrementally. The whole evolution consists of several phases and one more variable is focused in each phase. The number of phases is equal to the number of variables in maximum. Each phase is composed of two stages: in the single-variable evolution (SVE) stage, evolution is taken on one independent variable in a series of cutting planes; in the multi-variable evolving (MVE) stage, the initial population is formed by integrating the populations obtained by the SVE and the MVE in the last phase. And the evolution is taken on the incremented variable set. The other strategy is a hybrid of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and evolution strategy (ES). PSO is applied to adjust the cutting planes/hyper-planes (in SVEs/MVEs) while (1+1)-ES is applied to searching optima in the cutting planes/hyper-planes. The results of experiments show that the performance of IES is generally better than that of three other evolutionary algorithms, improved normal GA, PSO and SADE_CERAF, in the sense that IES finds solutions closer to the true optima and with more optimal objective values

Evolutionary algorithm-based analysis of gravitational microlensing lightcurves

A new algorithm developed to perform autonomous fitting of gravitational microlensing lightcurves is presented. The new algorithm is conceptually simple, versatile and robust, and parallelises trivially; it combines features of extant evolutionary algorithms with some novel ones, and fares well on the problem of fitting binary-lens microlensing lightcurves, as well as on a number of other difficult optimisation problems. Success rates in excess of 90% are achieved when fitting synthetic though noisy binary-lens lightcurves, allowing no more than 20 minutes per fit on a desktop computer; this success rate is shown to compare very favourably with that of both a conventional (iterated simplex) algorithm, and a more state-of-the-art, artificial neural network-based approach. As such, this work provides proof of concept for the use of an evolutionary algorithm as the basis for real-time, autonomous modelling of microlensing events. Further work is required to investigate how the algorithm will fare when faced with more complex and realistic microlensing modelling problems; it is, however, argued here that the use of parallel computing platforms, such as inexpensive graphics processing units, should allow fitting times to be constrained to under an hour, even when dealing with complicated microlensing models. In any event, it is hoped that this work might stimulate some interest in evolutionary algorithms, and that the algorithm described here might prove useful for solving microlensing and/or more general model-fitting problems.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures; accepted for publication in MNRA

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science