Purely competitive evolutionary dynamics for games

We introduce and analyze a purely competitive dynamics for the evolution of an infinite population subject to a 3-strategy game. We argue that this dynamics represents a characterization of how certain systems, both natural and artificial, are governed. In each period, the population is randomly sorted into pairs, which engage in a once-off play of the game; the probability that a member propagates its type to its offspring is proportional only to its payoff within the pair. We show that if a type is dominant (obtains higher payoffs in games with both other types), its 'pure' population state, comprising only members of that type, is globally attracting. If there is no dominant type, there is an unstable 'mixed' fixed point; the population state eventually oscillates between the three near-pure states. We then allow for mutations, where offspring have a non-zero probability of randomly changing their type. In this case, the existence of a dominant type renders a point near its pure state globally attracting. If no dominant type exists, a supercritical Hopf bifurcation occurs at the unique mixed fixed point, and above a critical (typically low) mutation rate, this fixed point becomes globally attracting: the implication is that even very low mutation rates can stabilize a system that would, in the absence of mutations, be unstable.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figure

The introductory astronomy course at the University of Cape Town: probing student perspectives

We report on research carried out to improve teaching and student engagement in the introductory astronomy course at the University of Cape Town. This course is taken by a diverse range of students, including many from educationally disadvantaged backgrounds. We describe the development of an instrument, the Introductory Astronomy Questionnaire (IAQ), which we administered as pre- and post-tests to students enrolled in the course. The instrument comprised a small number of questions which probed three areas of interest: student motivation and expectations, astronomy content, and worldview. Amongst our findings were that learning gains were made in several conceptual areas, and that students appeared to develop a more nuanced view of the nature of astronomy. There was some evidence that the course had a positive impact on students' worldviews, particularly their attitudes towards science. We also identified a promising predictor of course success that could in future be used to identify students requiring special teaching intervention.Comment: 19 pages, 2 figures. Accepted for publication in Physical Review Special Topics - Physics Educatio

Pinning down the mass of Kepler-10c: the importance of sampling and model comparison

Initial RV characterisation of the enigmatic planet Kepler-10c suggested a mass of $\sim17$ M$_\oplus$, which was remarkably high for a planet with radius $2.32$ R$_\oplus$; further observations and subsequent analysis hinted at a (possibly much) lower mass, but masses derived using RVs from two different spectrographs (HARPS-N and HIRES) were incompatible at a $3\sigma$-level. We demonstrate here how such mass discrepancies may readily arise from sub-optimal sampling and/or neglecting to model even a single coherent signal (stellar, planetary, or otherwise) that may be present in RVs. We then present a plausible resolution of the mass discrepancy, and ultimately characterise Kepler-10c as having mass $7.37_{-1.19}^{+1.32}$ M$_\oplus$, and mean density $3.14^{+0.63}_{-0.55}$ g cm$^{-3}$.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS Letter

Ground water quality assessment for irrigation in Palwal block of Palwal district, Haryana, India

The present study examined the quality of groundwater for agriculture purpose in a 49785 ha region comprising Palwal block of Palwal district of Haryana state by focusing on spatial variability of electrical conductivity (EC), cationic and anionic composition of CO32-, HCO3-, Cl-, SO42-, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+ and K+ of the ground water. It was found 75% of the samples showed EC values up to 4 dS/m and the maximum value of EC was found as 10.55 dS/m. Out of one hundred thirty three ground water samples 34.8 % were of good quality, 49.2 % saline and 16.0 % alkali in nature. Out of the saline water, 24.2, 1.5 and 23.5 % were marginally saline, saline and high SAR saline, respectively. In alkali group, 2.3, 2.3 and 11.4 % were marginally alkali, alkali and high alkali, respectively. Residual sodium carbonate (RSC) and sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) varied from nil to 5.50 me L-1 and 2.50 to 23.41 (m mol L-1)½, respectively. Counter map maps of EC, SAR, RSC and water quality of groundwater used for irrigation in the block were prepared through GIS to study spatial variability

Inferring probabilistic stellar rotation periods using Gaussian processes

Variability in the light curves of spotted, rotating stars is often non-sinusoidal and quasi-periodic --- spots move on the stellar surface and have finite lifetimes, causing stellar flux variations to slowly shift in phase. A strictly periodic sinusoid therefore cannot accurately model a rotationally modulated stellar light curve. Physical models of stellar surfaces have many drawbacks preventing effective inference, such as highly degenerate or high-dimensional parameter spaces. In this work, we test an appropriate effective model: a Gaussian Process with a quasi-periodic covariance kernel function. This highly flexible model allows sampling of the posterior probability density function of the periodic parameter, marginalising over the other kernel hyperparameters using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. To test the effectiveness of this method, we infer rotation periods from 333 simulated stellar light curves, demonstrating that the Gaussian process method produces periods that are more accurate than both a sine-fitting periodogram and an autocorrelation function method. We also demonstrate that it works well on real data, by inferring rotation periods for 275 Kepler stars with previously measured periods. We provide a table of rotation periods for these 1132 Kepler objects of interest and their posterior probability density function samples. Because this method delivers posterior probability density functions, it will enable hierarchical studies involving stellar rotation, particularly those involving population modelling, such as inferring stellar ages, obliquities in exoplanet systems, or characterising star-planet interactions. The code used to implement this method is available online.Comment: Submitted to MNRAS. Replaced 27/06/2017: corrections made to koi_periods.cs

Agricultural Information's Impact on the Adaptive Capacity of Ghana's Smallholder Cocoa Farmers

Ghanaian smallholders grow one quarter of the world's cocoa, but climate change, individual extreme weather events, such as droughts, as well as deforestation increasingly threaten cocoa production. Pertinent information could bolster adaptive capacity. However, in Ghana's cocoa sector, relevant agricultural information is not available to all farmers, which can exacerbate power asymmetries. This paper focuses on how (i) agricultural and drought-adaptive information and (ii) socio-economic characteristics shape a cocoa farmer's adaptive capacity. We conducted our study in the aftermath of 2015–16's prolonged El Niño-induced drought that negatively impacted the livelihoods of cocoa smallholders across Ghana. In 48 semi-structured interviews and 12 focus groups, we asked smallholders how they responded to the drought to decipher how adaptive capacity compares between farmers receiving four different sources of agricultural information, and of diverse socio-economic status. Overall, agricultural information improved cocoa farmers' adaptive capacity compared to those who received no formal agricultural information. Smallholders detailed adaptive techniques that would be accessible to, and thus replicable by, other poorly-resourced cocoa farmers. Shade tree management and income diversification were identified as pertinent adaptive actions. However, we identified a divergence between exposure to agricultural information and its transformation into substantive adaptive action. Additionally, informal information sharing between smallholders represents an underutilized resource by extension programmes. We found that adaptive capacity is also determined by socio-economic characteristics: particularly gender, and to a lesser extent formal education level, proximity to asphalt roads, and land tenure. Finally, we present evidence that framing adaptive techniques in relatable terms that resonate with farmers' immediate livelihood concerns could narrow the adaptation deficit prevalent in Ghana's cocoa sector

Coffee certification in Brazil: compliance with social standards and its implications for social equity

© 2018, The Author(s). This paper addresses the relationship between compliance with social performance criteria (the social outcomes that must be achieved for certification) and procedural (management) criteria and this relationship’s significance for social equity at both farm and wider landscape levels. We consider social performance compliance to be pertinent to farm-level equity, and the relative compliance of small versus large farms to be pertinent to landscape-level equity. Certification’s management requirements are often deemed disproportionately burdensome for small, resource-poor producers, and hence a barrier to landscape-level equity. There is a lack of research examining how management criteria impact the ability of different sized farms to meet certification’s social performance requirements. We analysed 435 certification audits, covering all Brazilian coffee farms that sought Rainforest Alliance certification from 2006 to 2014 inclusive: 80 individual farms and 23 groups of farms. In principle, undergoing group certification permits smallholders to benefit from economies of scale. Our analysis revealed a statistically significant, positive correlation between compliance with procedural (managing sustainability plans) and social performance criteria. This correlation was stronger for groups than individual farms. Group farms’ compliance was statistically equivalent to that of individual farms, suggesting that group certification is achieving its intended purpose of socio-economic levelling of certified farmers. Over time, certified farms’ average compliances improved. Our findings suggest that management requirements play an important role in improving smallholders’ overall social sustainability performance and that group certification may help resource-poor smallholders achieve those requirements. Further work is required to understand causal mechanisms underlying the relationships we present