An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange

Soft computing in investment appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. Such approach accounts for what occurs most of the time in the market, but does not reflect the reality, as major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we suggest a specific evolutionary algorithm to train a fuzzy neural net - the bidirectional incremental evolution will automatically identify the complexity of the problem and correspondingly adapt the parameters of the fuzzy network

Investment Risk Appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. This approach may account for what occurs most of the time in the market, but the picture it presents does not reflect the reality, as the major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we discuss the grounds for classical asset pricing model revision and argue that the demand for relaxed assumptions appeals for another approach to modelling the market environment

Valuation of real estate investments through Fuzzy Logic

This paper aims to outline the application of Fuzzy Logic in real estate investment. In literature, there is a wide theoretical background on real estate investment decisions, but there has been a lack of empirical support in this regard. For this reason, the paper would fill the gap between theory and practice. The fuzzy logic system is adopted to evaluate the situations of a real estate market with imprecise and vague information. To highlight the applicability of the Possibility Theory, we proceeded to reconsider an example of property investment evaluation through fuzzy logic. The case study concerns the purchase of an office building. The results obtained with Fuzzy Logic have been also compared with those arising from a deterministic approach through the use of crisp numbers

Fuzzy investment decision support for brownfield redevelopment

Tato disertační práce se zaměřuje na problematiku investování a podporu rozhodování pomocí moderních metod. Zejména pokud jde o analýzu, hodnocení a výběr tzv. brownfieldů pro jejich redevelopment (revitalizaci). Cílem této práce je navrhnout univerzální metodu, která usnadní rozhodovací proces. Proces rozhodování je v praxi komplikován též velkým počet relevantních parametrů ovlivňujících konečné rozhodnutí. Navržená metoda je založena na využití fuzzy logiky, modelování, statistické analýzy, shlukové analýzy, teorie grafů a na sofistikovaných metodách sběru a zpracování informací. Nová metoda umožňuje zefektivnit proces analýzy a porovnávání alternativních investic a přesněji zpracovat velký objem informací. Ve výsledku tak bude zmenšen počet prvků množiny nejvhodnějších alternativních investic na základě hierarchie parametrů stanovených investorem.This dissertation focuses on decision making, investing and brownfield redevelopment. Especially on the analysis, evaluation and selection of previously used real estates suitable for commercial use. The objective of this dissertation is to design a method that facilitates the decision making process with many possible alternatives and large number of relevant parameters influencing the decision. The proposed method is based on the use of fuzzy logic, modeling, statistic analysis, cluster analysis, graph theory and sophisticated methods of information collection and processing. New method allows decision makers to process much larger amount of information and evaluate possible investment alternatives efficiently.

Organizational energy: A behavioral analysis of human and organizational factors in manufacturing

This paper seeks to explore the behavior and embodied energy involved in the decision-making of information technology/information systems (IT/IS) investments using a case within a small- to medium-sized manufacturing firm. By analyzing decision making within a given case context, this paper describes the nature of the investment through the lens of behavioral economics, causality, input-output (IO) equilibrium, and the general notion of depletion of executive energy function. To explore the interplay between these elements, the authors structure the case context via a morphological field in order to construct a fuzzy cognitive map of decision-making relationships relating to the multidimensional and nonquantifiable problems of IT/IS investment evaluation. Noting the significance of inputs and outputs relating to the investment decision within the case, the authors assess these cognitive interrelationships through the lens of the Leontief IO energy equilibrium model. Subsequently, the authors suggest, through an embodied energy audit, that all such management decisions are susceptible to decision fatigue (so-called 'ego depletion'). The findings of this paper highlight pertinent cognitive and IO paths of the investment decision-making process that will allow others making similar types of investments to learn from and draw parallels from such processes

An Intelligent Model for Stock Investment with Buffett Strategy, Classifier System, Neural Network and Linear Programming

“The Intelligent Model for Stock Investment with Buffett Strategy, Classifier System, Neural Network and Linear Programming” was studied for developing an intelligent model which can learn more knowledge regarding to stock investment with artificial intelligence technology. Classifier system, neural network, fundamental financial investment factors and linear programming are the fundamental components for the research. Knowledge transformation and genetic evolution capability was discussed in the article, too. Furthermore, the investment strategy developed by Warren E. Buffett[17], the great financial investment master, was the major knowledge which was practiced in the article. For realizing more detail about learning system, a lot of topics regarding to artificial intelligence were discussed in advanced, including “A Market-Based Rule Learning System” [1], “Dynamic Trading Strategy Learning Model using Learning Classifier System” [2], “Nonlinear Index Prediction” [3], “Financial Decision Support with Hybrid Genetic and Neural Based Modeling Tool” [4] and “Fuzzy Interval methods in Investment risk Appraisal” [5]. According to the study mentioned above, the ideas to give intelligent model, especially with genetic algorithm, bring the direction for the advanced financial investment strategy and operation. Therefore, it was why a novel intelligent model with Buffett strategy, classifier system, neural network and linear programming proposed in the article

Fuzzy Decision-Support System for Safeguarding Tangible and Intangible Cultural Heritage

In the current world economic situation, the maintenance of built heritage has been limited due to a lack of funds and accurate tools for proper management and implementation of these actions. However, in specific local areas, the maintenance and conservation of historical and cultural heritage have become an investment opportunity. In this sense, in this study, a new tool is proposed, for the estimation of the functional service life of heritage buildings in a local region (city of Seville, South Spain). This tool is developed in Art-Risk research project and consists of a free software to evaluate decisions in regional policies, planning and management of tangible and intangible cultural heritage, considering physical, environmental, economic and social resources. This tool provides a ranking of priority of intervention among case studies belonging to a particular urban context. This information is particularly relevant for the stakeholders responsible for the management of maintenance plans in built heritage

Intertemporal Choice of Fuzzy Soft Sets

This paper first merges two noteworthy aspects of choice. On the one hand, soft sets and fuzzy soft sets are popular models that have been largely applied to decision making problems, such as real estate valuation, medical diagnosis (glaucoma, prostate cancer, etc.), data mining, or international trade. They provide crisp or fuzzy parameterized descriptions of the universe of alternatives. On the other hand, in many decisions, costs and benefits occur at different points in time. This brings about intertemporal choices, which may involve an indefinitely large number of periods. However, the literature does not provide a model, let alone a solution, to the intertemporal problem when the alternatives are described by (fuzzy) parameterizations. In this paper, we propose a novel soft set inspired model that applies to the intertemporal framework, hence it fills an important gap in the development of fuzzy soft set theory. An algorithm allows the selection of the optimal option in intertemporal choice problems with an infinite time horizon. We illustrate its application with a numerical example involving alternative portfolios of projects that a public administration may undertake. This allows us to establish a pioneering intertemporal model of choice in the framework of extended fuzzy set theorie