Compliance advisory service feasibility study

This report identifies areas or methods of regulatory compliance information and advice to SMEs in the region that are inadequate or deficient. It recommends additional services that will benefit SMEs in the region taking into account the business support simplification agenda, state aid, legal liability, environmental and equality issues

Review of CCAFS Capacity Enhancement activities

CCAFS and the CGIAR research Centers provide cutting-edge research on global climate change, agriculture and food security. CCAFS also has the objective to support Capacity Enhancement (CE) through improvements to: 1. Researchers’ capacity to generate knowledge on climate-smart food systems, adaptive capacity and rural livelihoods under climate change; 2. Decision-makers’ capacity to demand, critique and use this knowledge effectively to work out policy options, and to evaluate and adjust these policy options and related actions; 3. Decision-influencers’ access to information (Climate Futures definition). CE includes the development of skills and knowledge, dissemination of information, education, empowerment and behaviour change. A particular focus is empowerment of underrepresented groups including women. These activities are undertaken across much of the developing world, defined into the regions, East Africa, West Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and South Asia (and to a lesser extent the Middle East and North Africa, East Asia, Central Asia and Global). CCAFS has no specific targets for spending or performance on CE, and there is no formal reporting procedure for CE. Reported activities in 2011, 2012 and 2013 include CE outputs, and some reported outcomes and case studies also include CE. CCAFS is scheduled for an external evaluation in 2015 by CGIAR’s Independent Evaluation Arrangement (IEA). As part of the internal preparation for this evaluation, this report provides the findings of an evaluation of CCAFS Capacity Enhancement activities

Integal futures based on the paradigm approach

The study discusses the interpretation of integral futures in the context of paradigm. The dynamic matrix model of futures paradigm has been developed for carrying out meta-analysis of futures. As a result of meta-analysis integral futures and its new paradigms are defined by way of reconstructing futures paradigm history as responses to changing societal needs and through the outcomes of dynamic and comparative analysis of futures paradigms. The study sets the argument that integral futures: a) is entering a new phase in development of futures that responses to societal demands for sustainability, democratic participation and continuous knowledge production and integration, b) it is the phase of cooperation building between theoretical and practical futures, c) it is the complementary development of co-evolutionary and participatory paradigms, d) it unfolds further research perspectives for futures

Maintaining authenticity: transferring patina from the real world to the digital to retain narrative value

This research is concerned with utilizing new technologies to harvest existing narrative, symbolic and emotive value for use in a digital environment enabling "emotional durability" (Chapman, 2005) in future design. The projects discussed in this paper have been conducted as part of PhD research by Rosemary Wallin into 'Technology for Sustainable Luxury' at University of the Arts London, and visual effects technology research undertaken by Florian Stephens at University of West London. Jonathan Chapman describes vast consumer waste being "symptomatic of failed relationships" between consumers and the goods they buy, and suggests approaches for designing love, dependency, and even cherishability into products to give them a longer lifespan. 'Failed relationships' might also be observed in the transference of physical objects to their virtual cousins. Consider the throwaway nature of digital photography when compared to the carefully preserved prints in a family album. Apple often use a skeuomorphic (Hobbs, 2012) approach to user interface design, to digitally replicate the patina and 'value' of real objects. However, true transference of physical form and texture presumably occurs when an object is scanned and a virtual 3D model is created. This paper presents three practice-based approaches to storing and transferring patina from an original object, utilizing high resolution scanning, photogrammetry, mobile applications and 3D print technologies. The objective is not merely accuracy, but evocation of the emotive data connecting the digital and physical realm. As the human face holds experience in the lines and wrinkles of the skin, so the surface of an object holds its narrative. From the signs of the craftsman to the bumps and scratches that accumulate over the life of an item over time and generations, marks gather like evidence to be read by a familiar or a trained eye. According to the time and the culture these marks are read within, they will either add to or detract from its value. These marks can be captured via complex 3D modelling and scanning technologies, which allow detailed forms to be recreated as dense 3D wireframe, but the result is often unsatisfying. 3D greyscale surfaces can never fully capture the richness of patina. Authentic surfaces require other qualities such as colour, texture and depth, but there is something else - more difficult to define. Donald A. Norman expands on the idea of emotion and objects by describing three 'levels’ of design "visceral, behavioural and reflective". Visceral is based on "look, feel and sound", behavioural is focused on an object’s use, and reflective is concerned with its message. New technology is commonly seen in terms of its ability to increase efficiency, but this research has longer-term objectives: to repair or even rebuild Chapman's 'broken relationships' and enable ‘emotionally durable' design. The PhD that has formed the context for this paper examines the concept of luxury value, and how and why the value of patina has been replaced by fashion. Luxury goods are aspirational items often emulated in the bulk of mass production. If we are to alter behaviour around consumption, one approach might be to use technology to harvest patina as a way to retain emotional, symbolic and poetic value with a view to maintaining a relationship with the things we buy

Characteristics of Real Futures Trading Networks

Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks, in which nodes are trading participants, and two nodes have a common edge if the two corresponding investors appear simultaneously in at least one trading record as a purchaser and a seller respectively. Then, we conduct a comprehensive statistical analysis on the constructed futures trading networks. Empirical results show that the futures trading networks exhibit features such as scale-free behavior with interesting odd-even-degree divergence in low-degree regions, small-world effect, hierarchical organization, power-law betweenness distribution, disassortative mixing, and shrinkage of both the average path length and the diameter as network size increases. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that uses real data to study futures trading networks, and we argue that the research results can shed light on the nature of real futures business.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures. Final version published in Physica

Price discovery in spot and futures markets: a reconsideration

We reconsider the issue of price discovery in spot and futures markets. We use a threshold error correction model to allow for arbitrage operations to have an impact on the return dynamics. We estimate the model using quote midpoints, and we modify the model to account for time-varying transaction costs. We find that the futures market leads in the process of price discovery. The lead of the futures market is more pronounced in the presence of arbitrage signals. Thus, when the deviation between the spot and the futures market is large, the spot market tends to adjust to the futures market

Strategic trading and manipulation with spot market power

When a spot market monopolist has a position in a corresponding futures market, he has an incentive to deviate from the spot market optimum to make this position more profitable. Rational futures market makers take this into account when setting prices. We show that the monopolist, by randomizing his futures market position, can strategically exploit his market power at the expense of other futures market participants. Furthermore, traders without market power can manipulate futures prices by hiding their orders behind the monopolist's strategic trades. The moral hazard problem stemming from spot market power thus provides a venue for strategic trading and manipulation that parallels the adverse selection problem stemming from inside information. Klassifikation: D82, G1

A model of financialization of commodities

We analyze how institutional investors entering commodity futures markets, referred to as the financialization of commodities, affect commodity prices. Institutional investors care about their performance relative to a commodity index. We find that all commodity futures prices, volatilities, and correlations go up with financialization, but more so for index futures than for nonindex futures. The equity-commodity correlations also increase. We demonstrate how financial markets transmit shocks not only to futures prices but also to commodity spot prices and inventories. Spot prices go up with financialization, and shocks to any index commodity spill over to all storable commodity prices