Evaluation of remotely sensed soil moisture for landslide hazard assessment

Soil moisture is important in the triggering of many types of landslides. However, in situ soil moisture data are rarely available in hazardous zones. The advanced remote sensing technology could provide useful soil moisture information. In this study, an assessment has been carried out between the latest version of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative soil moisture product and the landslide events in a northern Italian region in the 14-year period 2002-2015. A clear correlation has been found between the satellite soil moisture and the landslide events, as over four-fifths of events had soil wetness conditions above the 50% regional soil moisture line. Attempts have also been made to explore the soil moisture thresholds for landslide occurrences under different environmental conditions (land cover, soil type and slope). The results showed slope distribution could provide a rather distinct separation of the soil moisture thresholds, with thresholds becoming smaller for steeper areas, indicating dryer soil condition could trigger landslides at hilly areas than in plain areas. The thresholds validation procedure is then carried out. Forty five rainfall events between 2014 and 2015 are used as test cases. Contingency tables, statistical indicators, and receiver operating characteristic analysis for thresholds under different exceedance probabilities (1%-50%) are explored. The results have shown that the thresholds using 30% exceedance probability provide the best performance with the hitting rate at 0.92 and the false alarm at 0.50. We expect this study can provide useful information for adopting the remotely sensed soil moisture in the landslide early warnings

Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of nowcasts that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment

Landslides

Landslides - Investigation and Monitoring offers a comprehensive overview of recent developments in the field of mass movements and landslide hazards. Chapter authors use in situ measurements, modeling, and remotely sensed data and methods to study landslides. This book provides a thorough overview of the latest efforts by international researchers on landslides and opens new possible research directions for further novel developments

Landslide susceptibility mapping through enhanced dynamic slope stability analysis using earth observing satellite measurements

Landslides are common throughout the world and can be triggered by earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, and heavy continuous rainfall in mountainous regions. For most types of slope failure, soil moisture plays a critical role because increased pore water pressure reduces the soil strength and increases stress. The combined effect of soil moisture in unsaturated soil layers and pore water pressure in saturated soil layers is critical to accurately predict landslides. However, dynamic in-situ soil moisture profiles are rarely measured on regional or global scales. The dynamic soil moisture can be estimated by a soil vegetation atmosphere transfer (SVAT) model or satellite. While a SVAT model can estimate soil moisture profile, satellite estimates are limited to the upper thin surface (0-5 cm). However, considering the complex database needed for a SVAT model, satellite data can be obtained quickly and may produce promising results in less data-rich regions at the global scale. While no previous landslide studies have used remotely-sensed soil moisture data, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) has the potential to be useful in characterizing soil moisture profiles. First this study investigated relationships among landslides, AMSR-E soil moisture and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in landslide prone regions of California, U.S., Leyte, Philippines and Dhading, Nepal. Then, a modified infinite slope stability model was developed and applied at Cleveland Corral, California, US and Dhading Nepal, using variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) soil moisture and AMSR-E soil moisture to develop dynamic landslide susceptibility maps at regional scale. Results show a strong relationship among remotely sensed soil moisture, rainfall and landslide events. Results also show a modified infinite slope stability model that directly includes vadose zone soil moisture can produce promising landslide susceptibility maps at regional scale using either VIC-3L or AMSR-E soil moisture. Vadose zone soil moisture has a significant role in shallow slope failure. Results show promising agreement between the susceptible area predicted by the model and the actual slope movements and slope failures observed in the study region. This model is quite reasonable to use in shallow slope stability analysis at a regional or global scale

Remote Sensing Approaches and Related Techniques to Map and Study Landslides

Landslide is one of the costliest and fatal geological hazards, threatening and influencing the socioeconomic conditions in many countries globally. Remote sensing approaches are widely used in landslide studies. Landslide threats can also be investigated through slope stability model, susceptibility mapping, hazard assessment, risk analysis, and other methods. Although it is possible to conduct landslide studies using in-situ observation, it is time-consuming, expensive, and sometimes challenging to collect data at inaccessible terrains. Remote sensing data can be used in landslide monitoring, mapping, hazard prediction and assessment, and other investigations. The primary goal of this chapter is to review the existing remote sensing approaches and techniques used to study landslides and explore the possibilities of potential remote sensing tools that can effectively be used in landslide studies in the future. This chapter also provides critical and comprehensive reviews of landslide studies focus¬ing on the role played by remote sensing data and approaches in landslide hazard assessment. Further, the reviews discuss the application of remotely sensed products for landslide detection, mapping, prediction, and evaluation around the world. This systematic review may contribute to better understanding the extensive use of remotely sensed data and spatial analysis techniques to conduct landslide studies at a range of scales

Soil moisture index estimation from landsat 8 images for prediction and monitoring landslide occurrences in Ulu Kelang, Selangor, Malaysia

Soil moisture is one of the contributing factors that accelerates soil erosion and landslide events due to the increase in pore pressure which eventually reduces the soil strength. For landslide prediction and monitoring purposes, large-scale measurement involves estimating the soil moisture. However, estimation of soil moisture usually involves point-based measurements at a particular site and time, which is difficult to capture the spatial and temporal soil moisture dynamics. This paper presents the estimation of the SMI using Landsat 8 images for prediction and monitoring of landslide events in Ulu Kelang, Selangor. The selected SMI map for dry, moist, and wet seasons are obtained from climatology rainfall analysis over 20-year periods (1998-2017). SMI is assessed based on remote sensing data which are land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using GIS software. Overall results indicated that rainfall distribution is high during inter-monsoon (IM), followed by northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) season. High rainfall distribution is a direct contributor towards SMI condition. Results from simulation show that April 2017 is known to have the highest SMI estimation season and selected to be the best SMI mapping parameter to be applied for prediction and monitoring of landslide events

Soil erosion in the Alps : causes and risk assessment

The issue of soil erosion in the Alps has long been neglected due to the low economic value of the agricultural land. However, soil stability is a key parameter which affects ecosystem services like slope stability, water budgets (drinking water reservoirs as well as flood prevention), vegetation productivity, ecosystem biodiversity and nutrient production. In alpine regions, spatial estimates on soil erosion are difficult to derive because the highly heterogeneous biogeophysical structure impedes measurement of soil erosion and the applicability of soil erosion models. However, remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods allow for spatial estimation of soil erosion by direct detection of erosion features and supply of input data for soil erosion models. Thus, the main objective of this work is to address the problem of soil erosion risk assessment in the Alps on catchment scale with remote sensing and GIS tools. Regarding soil erosion processes the focus is on soil erosion by water (here sheet erosion) and gravity (here landslides). For these two processes we address i) the monitoring and mapping of the erosion features and related causal factors ii) soil erosion risk assessment with special emphasis on iii) the validation of existing models for alpine areas. All investigations were accomplished in the Urseren Valley (Central Swiss Alps) where the valley slopes are dramatically affected by sheet erosion and landslides. For landslides, a natural susceptibility of the catchment has been indicated by bivariate and multivariate statistical analysis. Geology, slope and stream density are the most significant static landslide causal factors. Static factors are here defined as factors that do not change their attributes during the considered time span of the study (45 years), e.g. geology, stream network. The occurrence of landslides might be significantly increased by the combined effects of global climate and land use change. Thus, our hypothesis is that more recent changes in land use and climate affected the spatial and temporal occurrence of landslides. The increase of the landslide area of 92% within 45 years in the study site confirmed our hypothesis. In order to identify the cause for the trend in landslide occurrence time-series of landslide causal factors were analysed. The analysis revealed increasing trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events and stocking of pasture animals. These developments presumably enhanced landslide hazard. Moreover, changes in land-cover and land use were shown to have affected landslide occurrence. For instance, abandoned areas and areas with recently emerging shrub vegetation show very low landslide densities. Detailed spatial analysis of the land use with GIS and interviews with farmers confirmed the strong influence of the land use management practises on slope stability. The definite identification and quantification of the impact of these non-stationary landslide causal factors (dynamic factors) on the landslide trend was not possible due to the simultaneous change of several factors. The consideration of dynamic factors in statistical landslide susceptibility assessments is still unsolved. The latter may lead to erroneous model predictions, especially in times of dramatic environmental change. Thus, we evaluated the effect of dynamic landslide causal factors on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps for spatial and temporal predictions. For this purpose, a logistic regression model based on data of the year 2000 was set up. The resulting landslide susceptibility map was valid for spatial predictions. However, the model failed to predict the landslides that occurred in a subsequent event. In order to handle this weakness of statistic landslide modelling a multitemporal approach was developed. It is based on establishing logistic regression models for two points in time (here 1959 and 2000). Both models could correctly classify >70% of the independent spatial validation dataset. By subtracting the 1959 susceptibility map from the 2000 susceptibility map a deviation susceptibility map was obtained. Our interpretation was that these susceptibility deviations indicate the effect of dynamic causal factors on the landslide probability. The deviation map explained 85% of new independent landslides occurring after 2000. Thus, we believe it to be a suitable tool to add a time element to a susceptibility map pointing to areas with changing susceptibility due to recently changing environmental conditions or human interactions. In contrast to landslides that are a direct threat to buildings and infrastructure, sheet erosion attracts less attention because it is often an unseen process. Nonetheless, sheet erosion may account for a major proportion of soil loss. Soil loss by sheet erosion is related to high spatial variability, however, in contrast to arable fields for alpine grasslands erosion damages are long lasting and visible over longer time periods. A crucial erosion triggering parameter that can be derived from satellite imagery is fractional vegetation cover (FVC). Measurements of the radiogenic isotope Cs-137, which is a common tracer for soil erosion, confirm the importance of FVC for soil erosion yield in alpine areas. Linear spectral unmixing (LSU), mixture tuned matched filtering (MTMF) and the spectral index NDVI are applied for estimating fractional abundance of vegetation and bare soil. To account for the small scale heterogeneity of the alpine landscape very high resolved multispectral QuickBird imagery is used. The performance of LSU and MTMF for estimating percent vegetation cover is good (r²=0.85, r²=0.71 respectively). A poorer performance is achieved for bare soil (r²=0.28, r²=0.39 respectively) because compared to vegetation, bare soil has a less characteristic spectral signature in the wavelength domain detected by the QuickBird sensor. Apart from monitoring erosion controlling factors, quantification of soil erosion by applying soil erosion risk models is done. The performance of the two established models Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) and Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) for their suitability to model erosion for mountain environments is tested. Cs-137 is used to verify the resulting erosion rates from USLE and PESERA. PESERA yields no correlation to measured Cs-137 long term erosion rates and shows lower sensitivity to FVC. Thus, USLE is used to model the entire study site. The LSU-derived FVC map is used to adapt the C factor of the USLE. Compared to the low erosion rates computed with the former available low resolution dataset (1:25000) the satellite supported USLE map shows “hotspots” of soil erosion of up to 16 t ha-1 a-1. In general, Cs-137 in combination with the USLE is a very suitable method to assess soil erosion for larger areas, as both give estimates on long-term soil erosion. Especially for inaccessible alpine areas, GIS and remote sensing proved to be powerful tools that can be used for repetitive measurements of erosion features and causal factors. In times of global change it is of crucial importance to account for temporal developments. However, the evaluation of the applied soil erosion risk models revealed that the implementation of temporal aspects, such as varying climate, land use and vegetation cover is still insufficient. Thus, the proposed validation strategies (spatial, temporal and via Cs-137) are essential. Further case studies in alpine regions are needed to test the methods elaborated for the Urseren Valley. However, the presented approaches are promising with respect to improve the monitoring and identification of soil erosion risk areas in alpine regions

Development of a data-driven model for spatial and temporal shallow landslide probability of occurrence at catchment scale

Open access funding provided by Universita degli Studi di Pavia within the CRUI-CARE Agreement. This work has been in the frame of the ANDROMEDA project, which has been supported by Fondazione Cariplo, grant no. 2017-0677.We thank the anonymous reviewers for their contributions in improving the paper. We thank Beatrice Corradini for the help in the collection of rainfall data and of shallow landslide events.A combined method was developed to forecast the spatial and the temporal probability of occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large areas. The method also allowed to estimate the dynamic change of this probability during a rainfall event. The model, developed through a data-driven approach basing on Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines technique, was based on a joint probability between the spatial probability of occurrence (susceptibility) and the temporal one. The former was estimated on the basis of geological, geomorphological, and hydrological predictors. The latter was assessed considering short-term cumulative rainfall, antecedent rainfall, soil hydrological conditions, expressed as soil saturation degree, and bedrock geology. The predictive capability of the methodology was tested for past triggering events of shallow landslides occurred in representative catchments of Oltrepò Pavese, in northern Italian Apennines. The method provided excellently to outstanding performance for both the really unstable hillslopes (area under ROC curve until 0.92, true positives until 98.8%, true negatives higher than 80%) and the identification of the triggering time (area under ROC curve of 0.98, true positives of 96.2%, true negatives of 94.6%). The developed methodology allowed us to obtain feasible results using satellite-based rainfall products and data acquired by field rain gauges. Advantages and weak points of the method, in comparison also with traditional approaches for the forecast of shallow landslides, were also provided.Universita degli Studi di Pavia within the CRUI-CARE AgreementFondazione Cariplo 2017-067

Landslide mapping and characterization through Infrared Thermography (IRT): Suggestions for a methodological approach from some case studies

In this paper, the potential of Infrared Thermography (IRT) as a novel operational tool for landslide surveying, mapping and characterization was tested and demonstrated in different case studies, by analyzing various types of instability processes (rock slide/fall, roto-translational slide-flow). In particular, IRT was applied, both from terrestrial and airborne platforms, in an integrated methodology with other geomatcs methods, such as terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and global positioning systems (GPS), for the detection and mapping of landslides’ potentially hazardous structural and morphological features (structural discontinuities and open fractures, scarps, seepage and moisture zones, landslide drainage network and ponds). Depending on the study areas’ hazard context, the collected remotely sensed data were validated through field inspections, with the purpose of studying and verifying the causes of mass movements. The challenge of this work is to go beyond the current state of the art of IRT in landslide studies, with the aim of improving and extending the investigative capacity of the analyzed technique, in the framework of a growing demand for effective Civil Protection procedures in landslide geo-hydrological disaster managing activities. The proposed methodology proved to be an effective tool for landslide analysis, especially in the field of emergency management, when it is often necessary to gather all the required information in dangerous environments as fast as possible, to be used for the planning of mitigation measures and the evaluation of hazardous scenarios. Advantages and limitations of the proposed method in the field of the explored applications were evaluated, as well as general operative recommendations and future perspectives

Satellite-Based Assessment of Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Hazard for Situational Awareness

Determining the time, location, and severity of natural disaster impacts is fundamental to formulating mitigation strategies, appropriate and timely responses, and robust recovery plans. A Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed to indicate potential landslide activity in near real-time. LHASA combines satellite-based precipitation estimates with a landslide susceptibility map derived from information on slope, geology, road networks, fault zones, and forest loss. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are used to identify rainfall conditions from the past seven days. When rainfall is considered to be extreme and susceptibility values are moderate to very high, a nowcast is issued to indicate the times and places where landslides are more probable. When LHASA nowcasts were evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog, the probability of detection (POD) ranged from 8 to 60%, depending on the evaluation period, precipitation product used, and the size of the spatial and temporal window considered around each landslide point. Applications of the LHASA system are also discussed, including how LHASA is used to estimate long-term trends in potential landslide activity at a nearly global scale and how it can be used as a tool to support disaster risk assessment. LHASA is intended to provide situational awareness of landslide hazards in near real-time, providing a flexible, open source framework that can be adapted to other spatial and temporal scales based on data availability