From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Towards a global participatory platform: Democratising open data, complexity science and collective intelligence

The FuturICT project seeks to use the power of big data, analytic models grounded in complexity science, and the collective intelligence they yield for societal benefit. Accordingly, this paper argues that these new tools should not remain the preserve of restricted government, scientific or corporate élites, but be opened up for societal engagement and critique. To democratise such assets as a public good, requires a sustainable ecosystem enabling different kinds of stakeholder in society, including but not limited to, citizens and advocacy groups, school and university students, policy analysts, scientists, software developers, journalists and politicians. Our working name for envisioning a sociotechnical infrastructure capable of engaging such a wide constituency is the Global Participatory Platform (GPP). We consider what it means to develop a GPP at the different levels of data, models and deliberation, motivating a framework for different stakeholders to find their ecological niches at different levels within the system, serving the functions of (i) sensing the environment in order to pool data, (ii) mining the resulting data for patterns in order to model the past/present/future, and (iii) sharing and contesting possible interpretations of what those models might mean, and in a policy context, possible decisions. A research objective is also to apply the concepts and tools of complexity science and social science to the project's own work. We therefore conceive the global participatory platform as a resilient, epistemic ecosystem, whose design will make it capable of self-organization and adaptation to a dynamic environment, and whose structure and contributions are themselves networks of stakeholders, challenges, issues, ideas and arguments whose structure and dynamics can be modelled and analysed. Graphical abstrac

Transnational Access to Research Facilities: an EPOS service to promote multi-domain Solid Earth Sciences in Europe

Transnational access (TNA) allows cross-border, short-term and frequently free-of-charge access to world-class research facilities, to foster collaborations and exchanges of experience. Specifically, TNA aims to encourage open science and innovation and to increase the efficient and effective use of scientific infrastructure. Within EPOS, the European Plate Observing System, the Volcano Observatories and Multi-scale Laboratories communities have offered TNA to their high-quality research facilities through national and European funding. This experience has allowed the definition, design, and testing of procedures and activities needed to provide transnational access inn the EPOS context. In this paper, the EPOS community describes the main objectives for the provision of transnational access in the EPOS framework, based on previous experiences. It includes practical procedures for managing transnational access from a legal, governance, and financial perspective, and proposes logistical and technical solutions to effectively execute transnational access activities. In addition, it provides an outlook on the inclusion of new thematic communities within the TNA framework, and addresses the challenges of providing market-driven access to industry.publishedVersio

Onto new horizons: Learnings from the WeObserve project to strengthen awareness, acceptability and sustainability of Citizen Observatories in Europe

This presentation, delivered at the ECSA conference 2020, discusses key insights and recommendations acquired from the WeObserve project, to inform the Horizon Europe research and innovation programme as well as other funding programmes and CO practitioners more generally. WeObserve delivers the first European-wide Citizen Observatory (CO) knowledge platform to share and highlight best practices and to identify and address challenges to inform practitioners, policy makers and funders of (future) COs

From social data mining to forecasting socio-economic crises

Abstract.: The purpose of this White Paper of the EU Support Action "Visioneer”(see www.visioneer.ethz.ch) is to address the following goals: 1. Develop strategies to quickly increase the objective knowledge about social and economic systems. 2. Describe requirements for efficient large-scale scientific data mining of anonymized social and economic data. 3. Formulate strategies how to collect stylized facts extracted from large data set. 4. Sketch ways how to successfully build up centers for computational social science. 5. Propose plans how to create centers for risk analysis and crisis forecasting. 6. Elaborate ethical standards regarding the storage, processing, evaluation, and publication of social and economic dat

FuturICT: Participatory computing to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way

We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. Yet, we do not understand the princi-ples underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. We have enabled ubiquitous Internet connectivity and instant, global information access. Yet we do not understand how it impacts our be-havior and the evolution of society. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must urgently be cre-ated. The financial crisis, international wars, global terror, the spread-ing of diseases and cyber-crime as well as demographic, technological and environmental change demonstrate that humanity is facing seri-ous challenges. These problems cannot be solved within the traditional paradigms. Moving our attention from a component-oriented view of the world to an interaction-oriented view will allow us to understand the com-plex systems we have created and the emergent collective phenomena characterising them. This paradigm shift will enable new solutions to long-standing problems, very much as the shift from a geocentric to a heliocentric worldview has facilitated modern physics and the ability to launch satellites. The FuturICT flagship project will develop new science and technology to manage our future in a complex, strongly connected world. For this, it will combine the power of information and communication technol-ogy (ICT) with knowledge from the social and complexity sciences. ICT will provide the data to boost the social sciences into a new era. Complexity science will shed new light on the emergent phenomena in socially interactive systems, and the social sciences will provide a better understanding of the opportunities and risks of strongly net-worked systems, in particular future ICT systems. Hence, the envisaged FuturICT flagship will create new methods and instruments to tackle the challenges of the 21 st century. FuturICT could indeed become one of the most important scientific endeavours ever, by revealing the principles that make socially inter-active systems work well, by inspiring the creation of new platforms to explore our possible futures, and by initiating an era of social and socio-inspired innovations

FuturICT: Participatory computing to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way

We have built particle accelerators to understand the forces that make up our physical world. Yet, we do not understand the principles underlying our strongly connected, techno-socio-economic systems. We have enabled ubiquitous Internet connectivity and instant, global information access. Yet we do not understand how it impacts our behavior and the evolution of society. To fill the knowledge gaps and keep up with the fast pace at which our world is changing, a Knowledge Accelerator must urgently be created. The financial crisis, international wars, global terror, the spreading of diseases and cyber-crime as well as demographic, technological and environmental change demonstrate that humanity is facing serious challenges. These problems cannot be solved within the traditional paradigms. Moving our attention from a component-oriented view of the world to an interaction-oriented view will allow us to understand the complex systems we have created and the emergent collective phenomena characterising them. This paradigm shift will enable new solutions to long-standing problems, very much as the shift from a geocentric to a heliocentric worldview has facilitated modern physics and the ability to launch satellites. The FuturICT flagship project will develop new science and technology to manage our future in a complex, strongly connected world. For this, it will combine the power of information and communication technology (ICT) with knowledge from the social and complexity sciences. ICT will provide the data to boost the social sciences into a new era. Complexity science will shed new light on the emergent phenomena in socially interactive systems, and the social sciences will provide a better understanding of the opportunities and risks of strongly networked systems, in particular future ICT systems. Hence, the envisaged FuturICT flagship will create new methods and instruments to tackle the challenges of the 21st century. FuturICT could indeed become one of the most important scientific endeavours ever, by revealing the principles that make socially interactive systems work well, by inspiring the creation of new platforms to explore our possible futures, and by initiating an era of social and socio-inspired innovations. Graphical abstrac

Building Social Media Observatories for Monitoring Online Opinion Dynamics

Social media house a trove of relevant information for the study of online opinion dynamics. However, harvesting and analyzing the sheer overload of data that is produced by these media poses immense challenges to journalists, researchers, activists, policy makers, and concerned citizens. To mitigate this situation, this article discusses the creation of (social) media observatories: platforms that enable users to capture the complexities of social behavior, in particular the alignment and misalignment of opinions, through computational analyses of digital media data. The article positions the concept of "observatories" for social media monitoring among ongoing methodological developments in the computational social sciences and humanities and proceeds to discuss the technological innovations and design choices behind social media observatories currently under development for the study of opinions related to cultural and societal issues in European spaces. Notable attention is devoted to the construction of Penelope: an open, web-services-based infrastructure that allows different user groups to consult and contribute digital tools and observatories that suit their analytical needs. The potential and the limitations of this approach are discussed on the basis of a climate change opinion observatory that implements text analysis tools to study opinion dynamics concerning themes such as global warming. Throughout, the article explicitly acknowledges and addresses potential risks of the machine-guided and human-incentivized study of opinion dynamics. Concluding remarks are devoted to a synthesis of the ethical and epistemological implications of the exercise of positioning observatories in contemporary information spaces and to an examination of future pathways for the development of social media observatories

The EPOS Research Infrastructure: a federated approach to integrate solid Earth science data and services

The European Plate Observing System (EPOS) is a Research Infrastructure (RI) committed to enabling excellent science through the integration, accessibility, use and re-use of solid Earth science data, research products and services, as well as by promoting physical access to research facilities. This article presents and describes the EPOS RI and introduces the contents of its Delivery Framework. In November 2018, EPOS ERIC (European Research Infrastructure Consortium) has been granted by the European Commission and was established to design and implement a long-term plan for the integration of research infrastructures for solid Earth science in Europe. Specifically, the EPOS mission is to create and operate a highly distributed and sustainable research infrastructure to provide coordinated access to harmonized, interoperable and quality-controlled data from diverse solid Earth science disciplines, together with tools for their use in analysis and modelling. EPOS relies on leading-edge e-science solutions and is committed to open access, thus enabling a step towards the change in multidisciplinary and cross-disciplinary scientific research in Earth science. The EPOS architecture and its Delivery Framework are discussed in this article to present the contributions to open science and FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data management, as well as to emphasize the community building process that supported the design, implementation and construction of the EPOS RI.publishedVersio