Modeling of electricity demand forecast for power system

© 2019, Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature. The emerging complex circumstances caused by economy, technology, and government policy and the requirement of low-carbon development of power grid lead to many challenges in the power system coordination and operation. However, the real-time scheduling of electricity generation needs accurate modeling of electricity demand forecasting for a range of lead times. In order to better capture the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics and the seasonal cycles of future electricity demand data, a new concept of the integrated model is developed and successfully applied to research the forecast of electricity demand in this paper. The proposed model combines adaptive Fourier decomposition method, a new signal preprocessing technology, for extracting useful element from the original electricity demand series through filtering the noise factors. Considering the seasonal term existing in the decomposed series, it should be eliminated through the seasonal adjustment method, in which the seasonal indexes are calculated and should multiply the forecasts back to restore the final forecast. Besides, a newly proposed moth-flame optimization algorithm is used to ensure the suitable parameters of the least square support vector machine which can generate the forecasts. Finally, the case studies of Australia demonstrated the efficacy and feasibility of the proposed integrated model. Simultaneously, it can provide a better concept of modeling for electricity demand prediction over different forecasting horizons

The impact of macroeconomic leading indicators on inventory management

Forecasting tactical sales is important for long term decisions such as procurement and informing lower level inventory management decisions. Macroeconomic indicators have been shown to improve the forecast accuracy at tactical level, as these indicators can provide early warnings of changing markets while at the same time tactical sales are sufficiently aggregated to facilitate the identification of useful leading indicators. Past research has shown that we can achieve significant gains by incorporating such information. However, at lower levels, that inventory decisions are taken, this is often not feasible due to the level of noise in the data. To take advantage of macroeconomic leading indicators at this level we need to translate the tactical forecasts into operational level ones. In this research we investigate how to best assimilate top level forecasts that incorporate such exogenous information with bottom level (at Stock Keeping Unit level) extrapolative forecasts. The aim is to demonstrate whether incorporating these variables has a positive impact on bottom level planning and eventually inventory levels. We construct appropriate hierarchies of sales and use that structure to reconcile the forecasts, and in turn the different available information, across levels. We are interested both at the point forecast and the prediction intervals, as the latter inform safety stock decisions. Therefore the contribution of this research is twofold. We investigate the usefulness of macroeconomic leading indicators for SKU level forecasts and alternative ways to estimate the variance of hierarchically reconciled forecasts. We provide evidence using a real case study

Energy Management of Prosumer Communities

The penetration of distributed generation, energy storages and smart loads has resulted in the emergence of prosumers: entities capable of adjusting their electricity production and consumption in order to meet environmental goals and to participate profitably in the available electricity markets. Significant untapped potential remains in the exploitation and coordination of small and medium-sized distributed energy resources. However, such resources usually have a primary purpose, which imposes constraints on the exploitation of the resource; for example, the primary purpose of an electric vehicle battery is for driving, so the battery could be used as temporary storage for excess photovoltaic energy only if the vehicle is available for driving when the owner expects it to be. The aggregation of several distributed energy resources is a solution for coping with the unavailability of one resource. Solutions are needed for managing the electricity production and consumption characteristics of diverse distributed energy resources in order to obtain prosumers with more generic capabilities and services for electricity production, storage, and consumption. This collection of articles studies such prosumers and the emergence of prosumer communities. Demand response-capable smart loads, battery storages and photovoltaic generation resources are forecasted and optimized to ensure energy-efficient and, in some cases, profitable operation of the resources

Forecasting and Risk Management Techniques for Electricity Markets

This book focuses on the recent development of forecasting and risk management techniques for electricity markets. In addition, we discuss research on new trading platforms and environments using blockchain-based peer-to-peer (P2P) markets and computer agents. The book consists of two parts. The first part is entitled “Forecasting and Risk Management Techniques” and contains five chapters related to weather and electricity derivatives, and load and price forecasting for supporting electricity trading. The second part is entitled “Peer-to-Peer (P2P) Electricity Trading System and Strategy” and contains the following five chapters related to the feasibility and enhancement of P2P energy trading from various aspects

Improving Demand Forecasting: The Challenge of Forecasting Studies Comparability and a Novel Approach to Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting

Bedarfsprognosen sind in der Wirtschaft unerlässlich. Anhand des erwarteten Kundenbe-darfs bestimmen Firmen beispielsweise welche Produkte sie entwickeln, wie viele Fabri-ken sie bauen, wie viel Personal eingestellt wird oder wie viel Rohmaterial geordert wer-den muss. Fehleinschätzungen bei Bedarfsprognosen können schwerwiegende Auswir-kungen haben, zu Fehlentscheidungen führen, und im schlimmsten Fall den Bankrott einer Firma herbeiführen. Doch in vielen Fällen ist es komplex, den tatsächlichen Bedarf in der Zukunft zu antizipie-ren. Die Einflussfaktoren können vielfältig sein, beispielsweise makroökonomische Ent-wicklung, das Verhalten von Wettbewerbern oder technologische Entwicklungen. Selbst wenn alle Einflussfaktoren bekannt sind, sind die Zusammenhänge und Wechselwirkun-gen häufig nur schwer zu quantifizieren. Diese Dissertation trägt dazu bei, die Genauigkeit von Bedarfsprognosen zu verbessern. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wird im Rahmen einer überfassenden Übersicht über das gesamte Spektrum der Anwendungsfelder von Bedarfsprognosen ein neuartiger Ansatz eingeführt, wie Studien zu Bedarfsprognosen systematisch verglichen werden können und am Bei-spiel von 116 aktuellen Studien angewandt. Die Vergleichbarkeit von Studien zu verbes-sern ist ein wesentlicher Beitrag zur aktuellen Forschung. Denn anders als bspw. in der Medizinforschung, gibt es für Bedarfsprognosen keine wesentlichen vergleichenden quan-titativen Meta-Studien. Der Grund dafür ist, dass empirische Studien für Bedarfsprognosen keine vereinheitlichte Beschreibung nutzen, um ihre Daten, Verfahren und Ergebnisse zu beschreiben. Wenn Studien hingegen durch systematische Beschreibung direkt miteinan-der verglichen werden können, ermöglicht das anderen Forschern besser zu analysieren, wie sich Variationen in Ansätzen auf die Prognosegüte auswirken – ohne die aufwändige Notwendigkeit, empirische Experimente erneut durchzuführen, die bereits in Studien beschrieben wurden. Diese Arbeit führt erstmals eine solche Systematik zur Beschreibung ein. Der weitere Teil dieser Arbeit behandelt Prognoseverfahren für intermittierende Zeitreihen, also Zeitreihen mit wesentlichem Anteil von Bedarfen gleich Null. Diese Art der Zeitreihen erfüllen die Anforderungen an Stetigkeit der meisten Prognoseverfahren nicht, weshalb gängige Verfahren häufig ungenügende Prognosegüte erreichen. Gleichwohl ist die Rele-vanz intermittierender Zeitreihen hoch – insbesondere Ersatzteile weisen dieses Bedarfs-muster typischerweise auf. Zunächst zeigt diese Arbeit in drei Studien auf, dass auch die getesteten Stand-der-Technik Machine Learning Ansätze bei einigen bekannten Datensät-zen keine generelle Verbesserung herbeiführen. Als wesentlichen Beitrag zur Forschung zeigt diese Arbeit im Weiteren ein neuartiges Verfahren auf: Der Similarity-based Time Series Forecasting (STSF) Ansatz nutzt ein Aggregation-Disaggregationsverfahren basie-rend auf einer selbst erzeugten Hierarchie statistischer Eigenschaften der Zeitreihen. In Zusammenhang mit dem STSF Ansatz können alle verfügbaren Prognosealgorithmen eingesetzt werden – durch die Aggregation wird die Stetigkeitsbedingung erfüllt. In Expe-rimenten an insgesamt sieben öffentlich bekannten Datensätzen und einem proprietären Datensatz zeigt die Arbeit auf, dass die Prognosegüte (gemessen anhand des Root Mean Square Error RMSE) statistisch signifikant um 1-5% im Schnitt gegenüber dem gleichen Verfahren ohne Einsatz von STSF verbessert werden kann. Somit führt das Verfahren eine wesentliche Verbesserung der Prognosegüte herbei. Zusammengefasst trägt diese Dissertation zum aktuellen Stand der Forschung durch die zuvor genannten Verfahren wesentlich bei. Das vorgeschlagene Verfahren zur Standardi-sierung empirischer Studien beschleunigt den Fortschritt der Forschung, da sie verglei-chende Studien ermöglicht. Und mit dem STSF Verfahren steht ein Ansatz bereit, der zuverlässig die Prognosegüte verbessert, und dabei flexibel mit verschiedenen Arten von Prognosealgorithmen einsetzbar ist. Nach dem Erkenntnisstand der umfassenden Literatur-recherche sind keine vergleichbaren Ansätze bislang beschrieben worden

State-of-the-Art Using Bibliometric Analysis of Wind-Speed and -Power Forecasting Methods Applied in Power Systems

The integration of wind energy into power systems has intensified as a result of the urgency for global energy transition. This requires more accurate forecasting techniques that can capture the variability of the wind resource to achieve better operative performance of power systems. This paper presents an exhaustive review of the state-of-the-art of wind-speed and -power forecasting models for wind turbines located in different segments of power systems, i.e., in large wind farms, distributed generation, microgrids, and micro-wind turbines installed in residences and buildings. This review covers forecasting models based on statistical and physical, artificial intelligence, and hybrid methods, with deterministic or probabilistic approaches. The literature review is carried out through a bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer and Pajek software. A discussion of the results is carried out, taking as the main approach the forecast time horizon of the models to identify their applications. The trends indicate a predominance of hybrid forecast models for the analysis of power systems, especially for those with high penetration of wind power. Finally, it is determined that most of the papers analyzed belong to the very short-term horizon, which indicates that the interest of researchers is in this time horizon

Load forecasting on the user‐side by means of computational intelligence algorithms

Nowadays, it would be very difficult to deny the need to prioritize sustainable development through energy efficiency at all consumption levels. In this context, an energy management system (EMS) is a suitable option for continuously improving energy efficiency, particularly on the user side. An EMS is a set of technological tools that manages energy consumption information and allows its analysis. EMS, in combination with information technologies, has given rise to intelligent EMS (iEMS), which, aside from lending support to monitoring and reporting functions as an EMS does, it has the ability to model, forecast, control and diagnose energy consumption in a predictive way. The main objective of an iEMS is to continuously improve energy efficiency (on-line) as automatically as possible. The core of an iEMS is its load modeling forecasting system (LMFS). It takes advantage of historical information on energy consumption and energy-related variables in order to model and forecast load profiles and, if available, generator profiles. These models and forecasts are the main information used for iEMS applications for control and diagnosis. That is why in this thesis we have focused on the study, analysis and development of LMFS on the user side. The fact that the LMFS is applied on the user side to support an iEMS means that specific characteristics are required that in other areas of load forecasting they are not. First of all, the user-side load profiles (LPs) have a higher random behavior than others, as for example, in power system distribution or generation. This makes the modeling and forecasting process more difficult. Second, on the user side --for example an industrial user-- there is a high number and variety of places that can be monitored, modeled and forecasted, as well as their precedence or nature. Thus, on the one hand, an LMFS requires a high degree of autonomy to automatically or autonomously generate the demanded models. And on the other hand, it needs a high level of adaptability in order to be able to model and forecast different types of loads and different types of energies. Therefore, the addressed LMFS are those that do not look only for accuracy, but also adaptability and autonomy. Seeking to achieve these objectives, in this thesis work we have proposed three novel LMFS schemes based on hybrid algorithms from computational intelligence, signal processing and statistical theory. The first of them looked to improve adaptability, keeping in mind the importance of accuracy and autonomy. It was called an evolutionary training algorithm (ETA) and is based on adaptivenetwork-based-fuzzy-inference system (ANFIS) that is trained by a multi-objective genetic algorithm instead of its traditional training algorithm. As a result of this hybrid, the generalization capacity was improved (avoiding overfitting) and an easily adaptable training algorithm for new adaptive networks based on traditional ANFIS was obtained. The second scheme deals with LMF autonomy in order to build models from multiple loads automatically. Similar to the previous proposal, an ANFIS and a MOGA were used. In this case, the MOGA was used to find a near-optimal configuration for the ANFIS instead of training it. The LMFS relies on this configuration to work properly, as well as to maintain accuracy and generalization capabilities. Real data from an industrial scenario were used to test the proposed scheme and the multi-site modeling and self-configuration results were satisfactory. Furthermore, other algorithms were satisfactorily designed and tested for processing raw data in outlier detection and gap padding. The last of the proposed approaches sought to improve accuracy while keeping autonomy and adaptability. It took advantage of dominant patterns (DPs) that have lower time resolution than the target LP, so they are easier to model and forecast. The Hilbert-Huang transform and Hilbert-spectral analysis were used for detecting and selecting the DPs. Those selected were used in a proposed scheme of partial models (PM) based on parallel ANFIS or artificial neural networks (ANN) to extract the information and give it to the main PM. Therefore, LMFS accuracy improved and the user-side LP noising problem was reduced. Additionally, in order to compensate for the added complexity, versions of self-configured sub-LMFS for each PM were used. This point was fundamental since, the better the configuration, the better the accuracy of the model; and subsequently the information provided to the main partial model was that much better. Finally, and to close this thesis, an outlook of trends regarding iEMS and an outline of several hybrid algorithms that are pending study and testing are presented.En el contexto energético actual y particularmente en el lado del usuario, el concepto de sistema de gestión energética (EMS) se presenta como una alternativa apropiada para mejorar continuamente la eficiencia energética. Los EMSs en combinación con las tecnologías informáticas dan origen al concepto de iEMS, que además de soportar las funciones de los EMS, tienen la capacidad de modelar, pronosticar, controlar y supervisar los consumos energéticos. Su principal objetivo es el de realizar una mejora continua, lo más autónoma posible y predictiva de la eficiencia energética. Este tipo de sistemas tienen como núcleo fundamental el sistema de modelado y pronóstico de consumos (Load Modeling and Forecasting System, LMFS). El LMFS está habilitado para pronosticar el comportamiento futuro de cargas y, si es necesario, de generadores. Es sobre estos pronósticos sobre los cuales el iEMS puede realizar sus tareas automáticas y predictivas de optimización y supervisión. Los LMFS en el lado del usuario son el foco de esta tesis. Un LMFS en el lado del usuario, diseñado para soportar un iEMS requiere o demanda ciertas características que en otros contextos no serían tan necesarias. En primera estancia, los perfiles de los usuarios tienen un alto grado de aleatoriedad que los hace más difíciles de pronosticar. Segundo, en el lado del usuario, por ejemplo en la industria, el gran número de puntos a modelar requiere que el LMFS tenga por un lado, un nivel elevado de autonomía para generar de la manera más desatendida posible los modelos. Por otro lado, necesita un nivel elevado de adaptabilidad para que, usando la misma estructura o metodología, pueda modelar diferentes tipos de cargas cuya procedencia pude variar significativamente. Por lo tanto, los sistemas de modelado abordados en esta tesis son aquellos que no solo buscan mejorar la precisión, sino también la adaptabilidad y autonomía. En busca de estos objetivos y soportados principalmente por algoritmos de inteligencia computacional, procesamiento de señales y estadística, hemos propuesto tres algoritmos novedosos para el desarrollo de un LMFS en el lado del usuario. El primero de ellos busca mejorar la adaptabilidad del LMFS manteniendo una buena precisión y capacidad de autonomía. Denominado ETA, consiste del uso de una estructura ANFIS que es entrenada por un algoritmo genético multi objetivo (MOGA). Como resultado de este híbrido, obtenemos un algoritmo con excelentes capacidades de generalización y fácil de adaptar para el entrenamiento y evaluación de nuevas estructuras adaptativas basadas en ANFIS. El segundo de los algoritmos desarrollados aborda la autonomía del LMFS para así poder generar modelos de múltiples cargas. Al igual que en la anterior propuesta usamos un ANFIS y un MOGA, pero esta vez el MOGA en vez de entrenar el ANFIS, se utiliza para encontrar la configuración cuasi-óptima del ANFIS. Encontrar la configuración apropiada de un ANFIS es muy importante para obtener un buen funcionamiento del LMFS en lo que a precisión y generalización respecta. El LMFS propuesto, además de configurar automáticamente el ANFIS, incluyó diversos algoritmos para procesar los datos puros que casi siempre estuvieron contaminados de datos espurios y gaps de información, operando satisfactoriamente en las condiciones de prueba en un escenario real. El tercero y último de los algoritmos buscó mejorar la precisión manteniendo la autonomía y adaptabilidad, aprovechando para ello la existencia de patrones dominantes de más baja resolución temporal que el consumo objetivo, y que son más fáciles de modelar y pronosticar. La metodología desarrollada se basa en la transformada de Hilbert-Huang para detectar y seleccionar tales patrones dominantes. Además, esta metodología define el uso de modelos parciales de los patrones dominantes seleccionados, para mejorar la precisión del LMFS y mitigar el problema de aleatoriedad que afecta a los consumos en el lado del usuario. Adicionalmente, se incorporó el algoritmo de auto configuración que se presentó en la propuesta anterior para hallar la configuración cuasi-óptima de los modelos parciales. Este punto fue crucial puesto que a mejor configuración de los modelos parciales mayor es la mejora en precisión del pronóstico final. Finalmente y para cerrar este trabajo de tesis, se realizó una prospección de las tendencias en cuanto al uso de iEMS y se esbozaron varias propuestas de algoritmos híbridos, cuyo estudio y comprobación se plantea en futuros estudios

Alternative Sources of Energy Modeling, Automation, Optimal Planning and Operation

An economic development model analyzes the adoption of alternative strategy capable of leveraging the economy, based essentially on RES. The combination of wind turbine, PV installation with new technology battery energy storage, DSM network and RES forecasting algorithms maximizes RES integration in isolated islands. An innovative model of power system (PS) imbalances is presented, which aims to capture various features of the stochastic behavior of imbalances and to reduce in average reserve requirements and PS risk. Deep learning techniques for medium-term wind speed and solar irradiance forecasting are presented, using for first time a specific cloud index. Scalability-replicability of the FLEXITRANSTORE technology innovations integrates hardware-software solutions in all areas of the transmission system and the wholesale markets, promoting increased RES. A deep learning and GIS approach are combined for the optimal positioning of wave energy converters. An innovative methodology to hybridize battery-based energy storage using supercapacitors for smoother power profile, a new control scheme and battery degradation mechanism and their economic viability are presented. An innovative module-level photovoltaic (PV) architecture in parallel configuration is introduced maximizing power extraction under partial shading. A new method for detecting demagnetization faults in axial flux permanent magnet synchronous wind generators is presented. The stochastic operating temperature (OT) optimization integrated with Markov Chain simulation ascertains a more accurate OT for guiding the coal gasification practice

Predicting the Future

Due to the increased capabilities of microprocessors and the advent of graphics processing units (GPUs) in recent decades, the use of machine learning methodologies has become popular in many fields of science and technology. This fact, together with the availability of large amounts of information, has meant that machine learning and Big Data have an important presence in the field of Energy. This Special Issue entitled “Predicting the Future—Big Data and Machine Learning” is focused on applications of machine learning methodologies in the field of energy. Topics include but are not limited to the following: big data architectures of power supply systems, energy-saving and efficiency models, environmental effects of energy consumption, prediction of occupational health and safety outcomes in the energy industry, price forecast prediction of raw materials, and energy management of smart buildings

Ensemble deep learning: A review

Ensemble learning combines several individual models to obtain better generalization performance. Currently, deep learning models with multilayer processing architecture is showing better performance as compared to the shallow or traditional classification models. Deep ensemble learning models combine the advantages of both the deep learning models as well as the ensemble learning such that the final model has better generalization performance. This paper reviews the state-of-art deep ensemble models and hence serves as an extensive summary for the researchers. The ensemble models are broadly categorised into ensemble models like bagging, boosting and stacking, negative correlation based deep ensemble models, explicit/implicit ensembles, homogeneous /heterogeneous ensemble, decision fusion strategies, unsupervised, semi-supervised, reinforcement learning and online/incremental, multilabel based deep ensemble models. Application of deep ensemble models in different domains is also briefly discussed. Finally, we conclude this paper with some future recommendations and research directions