Energy storage systems and grid code requirements for large-scale renewables integration in insular grids

This thesis addresses the topic of energy storage systems supporting increased penetration of renewables in insular systems. An overview of energy storage management, forecasting tools and demand side solutions is carried out, comparing the strategic utilization of storage and other competing strategies. Particular emphasis is given to energy storage systems on islands, as a new contribution to earlier studies, addressing their particular requirements, the most appropriate technologies and existing operating projects throughout the world. Several real-world case studies are presented and discussed in detail. Lead-acid battery design parameters are assessed for energy storage applications on insular grids, comparing different battery models. The wind curtailment mitigation effect by means of energy storage resources is also explored. Grid code requirements for large-scale integration of renewables are discussed in an island context, as another new contribution to earlier studies. The current trends on grid code formulation, towards an improved integration of distributed renewable resources in island systems, are addressed. Finally, modeling and control strategies with energy storage systems are addressed. An innovative energy management technique to be used in the day-ahead scheduling of insular systems with Vanadium Redox Flow battery is presented.Esta tese aborda a temática dos sistemas de armazenamento de energia visando o aumento da penetração de energias renováveis em sistemas insulares. Uma visão geral é apresentada acerca da gestão do armazenamento de energia, ferramentas de previsão e soluções do lado da procura de energia, comparando a utilização estratégica do armazenamento e outras estratégias concorrentes. É dada ênfase aos sistemas de armazenamento de energia em ilhas, como uma nova contribuição no estado da arte, abordando as suas necessidades específicas, as tecnologias mais adequadas e os projetos existentes e em funcionamento a nível mundial. Vários casos de estudos reais são apresentados e discutidos em detalhe. Parâmetros de projeto de baterias de chumbo-ácido são avaliados para aplicações de armazenamento de energia em redes insulares, comparando diferentes modelos de baterias. O efeito de redução do potencial de desperdício de energia do vento, recorrendo ao armazenamento de energia, também é perscrutado. As especificidades subjacentes aos códigos de rede para a integração em larga escala de energias renováveis são discutidas em contexto insular, sendo outra nova contribuição no estado da arte. As tendências atuais na elaboração de códigos de rede, no sentido de uma melhor integração da geração distribuída renovável em sistemas insulares, são abordadas. Finalmente, é estudada a modelação e as estratégias de controlo com sistemas de armazenamento de energia. Uma metodologia de gestão de energia inovadora é apresentada para a exploração de curto prazo de sistemas insulares com baterias de fluxo Vanádio Redox

Forecasting in Mathematics

Mathematical probability and statistics are an attractive, thriving, and respectable part of mathematics. Some mathematicians and philosophers of science say they are the gateway to mathematics’ deepest mysteries. Moreover, mathematical statistics denotes an accumulation of mathematical discussions connected with efforts to most efficiently collect and use numerical data subject to random or deterministic variations. Currently, the concept of probability and mathematical statistics has become one of the fundamental notions of modern science and the philosophy of nature. This book is an illustration of the use of mathematics to solve specific problems in engineering, statistics, and science in general

Evolution of microgrids with converter-interfaced generations: Challenges and opportunities

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd Although microgrids facilitate the increased penetration of distributed generations (DGs) and improve the security of power supplies, they have some issues that need to be better understood and addressed before realising the full potential of microgrids. This paper presents a comprehensive list of challenges and opportunities supported by a literature review on the evolution of converter-based microgrids. The discussion in this paper presented with a view to establishing microgrids as distinct from the existing distribution systems. This is accomplished by, firstly, describing the challenges and benefits of using DG units in a distribution network and then those of microgrid ones. Also, the definitions, classifications and characteristics of microgrids are summarised to provide a sound basis for novice researchers to undertake ongoing research on microgrids

Short-Term Load Demand Forecasting For Transnet Port Terminal (Tpt) In East London Using Artificial Neural Network

DissertationThe daily and weekly energy consumption patterns at the Transnet Port Terminal (TPT) in East London varies stochastically. This is as a result of the transient weather patterns that exist at the harbor. It has therefore become imperative to wisely manage this load in order to save electricity costs and for future infrastructure development. Hence the ongoing supply of electricity to port consumers requires an accurate and adequate short-term load forecast (STLF) for quality, quantity, and efficient management. Many researchers have recently proposed Artificial Neural Networks for short-term load prediction. However, most of the studies have not considered the quickly changing weather patterns that exist at the port. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish a supervised short-term load prediction using ANN models, and to verify the effectiveness of such predictions by using the real load data from the TPT. The suggested system architecture uses open- loop training with real load and weather information, and then a closed-loop network is used to produce a prediction with the predicted load as its feedback data. Data collection points were set up in the ring network of the port by installing new power measuring meters, and weather data obtained from local meteorology offices in order to build a suitable alternative of localised data management (data base) for saving all data gathered. Hence, profiling of the load in the TPT was done and load forecasting was carried out, leading to improved load management strategies for the harbor terminal. ANN short-term load prediction (STLP) models were developed utilising its own performance to improve precision by essentially implementing a load feedback loop that is less reliant on external data. To ensure that the timeseries data recorded at the port were well modeled, the Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) for load prediction were developed using mean squared error (MSE) as a performance metric. Furthermore, to show the efficacy of the proposed model for STLP, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was used with the same data for short-term predictions. The minimum mean squared errors obtained for both NARX and ANFIS models were 0.0010939 and 0.0032 respectively, indicating that the NARX model is more accurate during the forecast of departmental loads. The results of the predictions using the hourly timeseries indicated a close match between the forecasted and actual load demand at the port terminal. The effects of the load forecast could be used as a guide for implementing management plans for internal load, such as the generation of urgent electricity and the programme of implementation for demand-side management policies

Modeling Energy Demand—A Systematic Literature Review

In this article, a systematic literature review of 419 articles on energy demand modeling, published between 2015 and 2020, is presented. This provides researchers with an exhaustive overview of the examined literature and classification of techniques for energy demand modeling. Unlike in existing literature reviews, in this comprehensive study all of the following aspects of energy demand models are analyzed: techniques, prediction accuracy, inputs, energy carrier, sector, temporal horizon, and spatial granularity. Readers benefit from easy access to a broad literature base and find decision support when choosing suitable data-model combinations for their projects. Results have been compiled in comprehensive figures and tables, providing a structured summary of the literature, and containing direct references to the analyzed articles. Drawbacks of techniques are discussed as well as countermeasures. The results show that among the articles, machine learning (ML) techniques are used the most, are mainly applied to short-term electricity forecasting on a regional level and rely on historic load as their main data source. Engineering-based models are less dependent on historic load data and cover appliance consumption on long temporal horizons. Metaheuristic and uncertainty techniques are often used in hybrid models. Statistical techniques are frequently used for energy demand modeling as well and often serve as benchmarks for other techniques. Among the articles, the accuracy measured by mean average percentage error (MAPE) proved to be on similar levels for all techniques. This review eases the reader into the subject matter by presenting the emphases that have been made in the current literature, suggesting future research directions, and providing the basis for quantitative testing of hypotheses regarding applicability and dominance of specific methods for sub-categories of demand modeling.BMBF, 03SFK4T0, Verbundvorhaben ENavi: Energiewende-Navigationssystem zur Erfassung, Analyse und Simulation der systemischen Vernetzungen" - Teilvorhaben T0BMWi, 03ET4040C, Verbundvorhaben: Harmonisierung und Entwicklung von Verfahren zur regional und zeitlich aufgelösten Modellierung von Energienachfragen (DemandRegio) Teilvorhaben: ProfileDFG, 414044773, Open Access Publizieren 2021 - 2022 / Technische Universität Berli

What is quantitative plant biology?

Quantitative plant biology is an interdisciplinary field that builds on a long history of biomathematics and biophysics. Today, thanks to high spatiotemporal resolution tools and computational modelling, it sets a new standard in plant science. Acquired data, whether molecular, geometric or mechanical, are quantified, statistically assessed and integrated at multiple scales and across fields. They feed testable predictions that, in turn, guide further experimental tests. Quantitative features such as variability, noise, robustness, delays or feedback loops are included to account for the inner dynamics of plants and their interactions with the environment. Here, we present the main features of this ongoing revolution, through new questions around signalling networks, tissue topology, shape plasticity, biomechanics, bioenergetics, ecology and engineering. In the end, quantitative plant biology allows us to question and better understand our interactions with plants. In turn, this field opens the door to transdisciplinary projects with the society, notably through citizen science.Peer reviewe

Hybrid artificial intelligence algorithms for short-term load and price forecasting in competitive electric markets

The liberalization and deregulation of electric markets forced the various participants to accommodate several challenges, including: a considerable accumulation of new generation capacity from renewable sources (fundamentally wind energy), the unpredictability associated with these new forms of generation and new consumption patterns, contributing to further electricity prices volatility (e.g. the Iberian market). Given the competitive framework in which market participants operate, the existence of efficient computational forecasting techniques is a distinctive factor. Based on these forecasts a suitable bidding strategy and an effective generation systems operation planning is achieved, together with an improved installed transmission capacity exploitation, results in maximized profits, all this contributing to a better energy resources utilization. This dissertation presents a new hybrid method for load and electricity prices forecasting, for one day ahead time horizon. The optimization scheme presented in this method, combines the efforts from different techniques, notably artificial neural networks, several optimization algorithms and wavelet transform. The method’s validation was made using different real case studies. The subsequent comparison (accuracy wise) with published results, in reference journals, validated the proposed hybrid method suitability.O processo de liberalização e desregulação dos mercados de energia elétrica, obrigou os diversos participantes a acomodar uma série de desafios, entre os quais: a acumulação considerável de nova capacidade de geração proveniente de origem renovável (fundamentalmente energia eólica), a imprevisibilidade associada a estas novas formas de geração e novos padrões de consumo. Resultando num aumento da volatilidade associada aos preços de energia elétrica (como é exemplo o mercado ibérico). Dado o quadro competitivo em que os agentes de mercado operam, a existência de técnicas computacionais de previsão eficientes, constituí um fator diferenciador. É com base nestas previsões que se definem estratégias de licitação e se efetua um planeamento da operação eficaz dos sistemas de geração que, em conjunto com um melhor aproveitamento da capacidade de transmissão instalada, permite maximizar os lucros, realizando ao mesmo tempo um melhor aproveitamento dos recursos energéticos. Esta dissertação apresenta um novo método híbrido para a previsão da carga e dos preços da energia elétrica, para um horizonte temporal a 24 horas. O método baseia-se num esquema de otimização que reúne os esforços de diferentes técnicas, nomeadamente redes neuronais artificiais, diversos algoritmos de otimização e da transformada de wavelet. A validação do método foi feita em diferentes casos de estudo reais. A posterior comparação com resultados já publicados em revistas de referência, revelou um excelente desempenho do método hibrido proposto

Stand-alone solar-pv hydrogen energy systems incorporating reverse osmosis

The world’s increasing energy demand means the rate at which fossil fuels are consumed has increased resulting in greater carbon dioxide emissions. For many small (marginalised) or coastal communities, access to potable water is limited alongside good availability of renewable energy sources (solar or wind). One solution is to utilise small-scale renewably powered stand-alone energy systems to help supply power for everyday utilities and to operate desalination systems serving potable water (drinking) needs reducing diesel generator dependence. In such systems, on-site water production is essential so as to service electrolysis for hydrogen generation for Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cells. Whilst small Reverse Osmosis (RO) units may function as a (useful) dump load, it also directly impacts the power management of stand-alone energy systems and affects operational characteristics. However, renewable energy sources are intermittent in nature, thus power generation from renewables may not be adequate to satisfy load demands. Therefore, energy storage and an effective Power Management Strategy (PMS) are vital to ensure system reliability. This thesis utilises a combination of experiments and modelling to analyse the performance of renewably powered stand-alone energy systems consisting of photovoltaic panels, PEM electrolysers, PEM fuel cells, batteries, metal hydrides and Reverse Osmosis (RO) under various scenarios. Laboratory experiments have been done to resolve time-resolved characteristics for these system components and ascertain their impact on system performance. However, the main objective of the study is to ascertain the differences between applying (simplistic) predictive/optimisation techniques compared to intelligent tools in renewable energy systems. This is achieved through applying intelligent tools such as Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimisation for different aspects that govern system design and operation as well as solar irradiance prediction. Results indicate the importance of device level transients, temporal resolution of available solar irradiance and type of external load profile (static or time-varying) as system performance is affected differently. In this regard, minute resolved simulations are utilised to account for all component transients including predicting the key input to the system, namely available solar resource which can be affected by various climatic conditions such as rainfall. System behaviour is (generally) more accurately predicted utilising Neural Network solar irradiance prediction compared to the ASHRAE clear sky model when benchmarked against measured irradiance data. Allowing Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) to further adjust specific control set-points within the systems PMS results in improvements in system operational characteristics compared to using simplistic rule-based design methods. In such systems, increasing energy storage capacities generally allow for more renewable energy penetration yet only affect the operational characteristics up to a threshold capacity. Additionally, simultaneously optimising system size and PMS to satisfy a multi-objective function, consisting of total Net Present Cost and CO2 emissions, yielded lower costs and carbon emissions compared to HOMER, a widely adopted sizing software tool. Further development of this thesis will allow further improvements in the development of renewably powered energy systems providing clean, reliable, cost-effective energy. All simulations are performed on a desktop PC having an Intel i3 processor using either MATLAB/Simulink or HOMER

Enhancing the performance of flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS) by computational intelligence

The thesis studies and analyzes UPFC technology concerns the management of active and reactive power in the power networks to improve the performance aiming to reach the best operation criteria. The contributions of the thesis start with formatting, deriving, coding and programming the network equations required to link UPFC steady-state and dynamic models to the power systems. The thesis derives GA applications on UPFC to achieve real criteria on a real world sub-transmission network. An enhanced GA technique is proposed by enhancing and updating the working phases of the GA including the objective function formulation and computing the fitness using the diversity in the population and selection probability. The simulations and results show the advantages of using the proposed technique. Integrating the results by linking the case studies of the steady-state and the dynamic analysis is achieved. In the dynamic analysis section, a new idea for integrating the GA with ANFIS to be applied on the control action procedure is presented. The main subject of the thesis deals with enhancing the steady-state and dynamics performance of the power grids by Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) based on computational intelligence. Control of the electric power system can be achieved by designing the FACTS controller, where the new trends as Artificial Intelligence can be applied to this subject to enhance the characteristics of controller performance. The proposed technique will be applied to solve real problems in a Finnish power grid. The thesis seeks to deal, solve, and enhance performances until the year 2020, where the data used is until the conditions of year 2020. The FACTS device, which will be used in the thesis, is the most promising one, which known as the Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC). The thesis achieves the optimization of the type, the location and the size of the power and control elements for UPFC to optimize the system performance. The thesis derives the criteria to install the UPFC in an optimal location with optimal parameters and then designs an AI based damping controller for enhancing power system dynamic performance. In this thesis, for every operating point GA is used to search for controllers' parameters, parameters found at certain operating point are different from those found at others. ANFISs are required in this case to recognize the appropriate parameters for each operating point