Rising mortality from injury in urban China: demographic burden, underlying causes and policy implications

In urban China, mortality from injuries has increased over the past five decades. By contrast, life expectancy has continued to increase and has come to nearly equal life expectancy in developed countries. Currently, most of the life expectancy lost due to injury (65%) in urban China would be recovered if injury rates were the same as in countries with low injury-related mortality. Fundamentally, the rising trend in urban injury mortality in China reflects a continued focus on injury treatment rather than prevention in the face of fast socioeconomic development and increasing exposure to risk factors for injury. Despite improved injury prevention legislation and a 'Safe Community' campaign, urban China needs to modify its approach to urban injury management and focus on prevention. The gap between urban China and countries with low injury mortality can be closed by means of legislation, strengthened law enforcement and the establishment of safer communities. Risks affecting children and migrants deserve greater attention, and the government needs to allocate more resources to injury prevention to mid-western urban areas in particular. Based on the population size of urban China, measures for the prevention of injury mortality would save an annual 436.4 million years of life

Evidence on the impact of Sustained Exposure to Air Pollution on Life Expectancy from China's Huai River Policy

This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSP) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China's Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities North of the Huai River but denied heat to the South. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSP are about 184 μg/m3 (95% CI: 61, 307) or 55% higher in the North. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) years lower in the North due to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m3 of TSP is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 years (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).Robert Wood Johnson Foundatio

Co-variations and Clustering of Chronic Disease Behavioral Risk Factors in China: China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance, 2007

BACKGROUND: Chronic diseases have become the leading causes of mortality in China and related behavioral risk factors (BRFs) changed dramatically in past decades. We aimed to examine the prevalence, co-variations, clustering and the independent correlates of five BRFs at the national level. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used data from the 2007 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance, in which multistage clustering sampling was adopted to collect a nationally representative sample of 49,247 Chinese aged 15 to 69 years. We estimated the prevalence and clustering (mean number of BRFs) of five BRFs: tobacco use, excessive alcohol drinking, insufficient intake of vegetable and fruit, physical inactivity, and overweight or obesity. We conducted binary logistic regression models to examine the co-variations among five BRFs with adjustment of demographic and socioeconomic factors, chronic conditions and other BRFs. Ordinal logistic regression was constructed to investigate the independent associations between each covariate and the clustering of BRFs within individuals. Overall, 57.0% of Chinese population had at least two BRFs and the mean number of BRFs is 1.80 (95% confidence interval: 1.78-1.83). Eight of the ten pairs of bivariate associations between the five BRFs were found statistically significant. Chinese with older age, being a male, living in rural areas, having lower education level and lower yearly household income experienced increased likelihood of having more BRFs. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Current BRFs place the majority of Chinese aged 15 to 69 years at risk for the future development of chronic disease, which calls for urgent public health programs to reduce these risk factors. Prominent correlations between BRFs imply that a combined package of interventions targeting multiple BRFs might be appropriate. These interventions should target elder population, men, and rural residents, especially those with lower SES

The gap in injury mortality rates between urban and rural residents of Hubei province, China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Injury is a growing public health concern in China. Injury death rates are often higher in rural areas than in urban areas in general. The objective of this study is to compare the injury mortality rates in urban and rural residents in Hubei Province in central China by age, sex and mechanism of injury.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using data from the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system maintained by the Hubei Province Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 2006 to 2008, injury deaths were classified according to the International Classification of Disease-10^thRevision (ICD-10). Crude and age-adjusted annual mortality rates were calculated for rural and urban residents of Hubei Province.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The crude and age-adjusted injury death rates were significantly higher for rural residents than for urban residents (crude rate ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.8-2.0; adjusted rate ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 2.3-2.4). The age-adjusted injury death rate for males was 81.6/100,000 in rural areas compared with 37.0/100 000 in urban areas; for females, the respective rates were 57.9/100,000 and 22.4/100 000. Death rates for suicide (32.4 per 100 000 vs 3.9 per 100 000), traffic-related injuries (15.8 per 100 000 vs 9.5 per 100 000), drowning (6.9 per 100 000 vs 2.3 per 100 000) and crushing injuries (2.0 per 100 000 vs 0.7 per 100 000) were significantly higher in rural areas. Overall injury death rates were much higher in persons over 65 years, with significantly higher rates in rural residents compared with urban residents for suicide (279.8 per 100 000 vs 10.7 per 100 000), traffic-related injuries, and drownings in this age group. Death rates for falls, poisoning, and suffocation were similar in the two geographic groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Rates of suicide, traffic-related injury deaths and drownings are demonstrably higher in rural compared with urban locations and should be targeted for injury prevention activity. There is a need for injury prevention policies targeted at elderly residents, especially with regard to suicide prevention in rural areas in Central China.</p

Core Verbal Autopsy Procedures with Comparative Validation Results from Two Countries

BACKGROUND: Cause-specific mortality statistics remain scarce for the majority of low-income countries, where the highest disease burdens are experienced. Neither facility-based information systems nor vital registration provide adequate or representative data. The expansion of sample vital registration with verbal autopsy procedures represents the most promising interim solution for this problem. The development and validation of core verbal autopsy forms and suitable coding and tabulation procedures are an essential first step to extending the benefits of this method. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Core forms for peri- and neonatal, child, and adult deaths were developed and revised over 12 y through a project of the Tanzanian Ministry of Health and were applied to over 50,000 deaths. The contents of the core forms draw upon and are generally comparable with previously proposed verbal autopsy procedures. The core forms and coding procedures based on the International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD) were further adapted for use in China. These forms, the ICD tabulation list, the summary validation protocol, and the summary validation results from Tanzania and China are presented here. CONCLUSIONS: The procedures are capable of providing reasonable mortality estimates as adjudged against stated performance criteria for several common causes of death in two countries with radically different cause structures of mortality. However, the specific causes for which the procedures perform well varied between the two settings because of differences in the underlying prevalence of the main causes of death. These differences serve to emphasize the need to undertake validation studies of verbal autopsy procedures when they are applied in new epidemiological settings

Incidence and fatality of serious suicide attempts in a predominantly rural population in Shandong, China: a public health surveillance study

Objectives To estimate the incidence of serious suicide attempts (SSAs, defined as suicide attempts resulting in either death or hospitalisation) and to examine factors associated with fatality among these attempters. Design A surveillance study of incidence and mortality. Linked data from two public health surveillance systems were analysed. Setting Three selected counties in Shandong, China. Participants All residents in the three selected counties. Outcome measures Incidence rate ( per 100 000 person-years) and case fatality rate (%). Methods Records of suicide deaths and hospitalisations that occurred among residents in selected counties during 2009–2011 (5 623 323 person-years) were extracted from electronic databases of the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system and the Injury Surveillance System (ISS) and were linked by name, sex, residence and time of suicide attempt. A multiple logistic regression model was developed to examine the factors associated with a higher or lower fatality rate. Results The incidence of SSAs was estimated to be 46 (95% CI 44 to 48) per 100 000 person-years, which was 1.5 times higher in rural versus urban areas, slightly higher among females, and increased with age. Among all SSAs, 51% were hospitalised and survived, 9% were hospitalised but later died and 40% died with no hospitalisation. Most suicide deaths (81%) were not hospitalised and most hospitalised SSAs (85%) survived. The fatality rate was 49% overall, but was significantly higher among attempters living in rural areas, who were male, older, with lower education or with a farming occupation. With regard to the method of suicide, fatality was lowest for non-pesticide poisons (7%) and highest for hanging (97%). Conclusions The incidence of serious suicide attempts is substantially higher in rural areas than in urban areas of China. The risk of death is influenced by the attempter’s sex, age, education level, occupation, method used and season of year

National, regional, and global causes of mortality in 5-19-year-olds from 2000 to 2019 : a systematic analysis

Background: Investments in the survival of older children and adolescents (aged 5-19 years) bring triple dividends for now, their future, and the next generation. However, 1·5 million deaths occurred in this age group globally in 2019, nearly all from preventable causes. To better focus the attention of the global community on improving survival of children and adolescents and to guide effective policy and programmes, sound and timely cause of death data are crucial, but often scarce. Methods: In this systematic analysis, we provide updated time-series for 2000-19 of national, regional, and global cause of death estimates for 5-19-year-olds with age-sex disaggregation. We estimated separately for countries with high versus low mortality, by data availability, and for four age-sex groups (5-9-year-olds [both sexes], 10-14-year-olds [both sexes], 15-19-year-old females, and 15-19-year-old males). Only studies reporting at least two causes of death were included in our analysis. We obtained empirical cause of death data through systematic review, known investigator tracing, and acquisition of known national and subnational cause of death studies. We adapted the Bayesian Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator approach to address data scarcity, enhance covariate selection, produce more robust estimates, offer increased flexibility, allow country random effects, propagate coherent uncertainty, and improve model stability. We harmonised all-cause mortality estimates with the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation and systematically integrated single cause estimates as needed from WHO and UNAIDS. Findings: In 2019, the global leading specific causes of death were road traffic injuries (115 843 [95% uncertainty interval 110 672-125 054] deaths; 7·8% [7·5-8·1]); neoplasms (95 401 [90 744-104 812]; 6·4% [6·1-6·8]); malaria (81 516 [72 150-94 477]; 5·5% [4·9-6·2]); drowning (77 460 [72 474-85 952]; 5·2% [4·9-5·5]); and diarrhoea (72 679 [66 599-82 002], 4·9% [4·5-5·3]). The leading causes varied substantially across regions. The contribution of communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions declined with age, whereas the number of deaths associated with injuries increased. The leading causes of death were diarrhoea (51 630 [47 206-56 235] deaths; 10·0% [9·5-10·5]) in 5-9-year-olds; malaria (31 587 [23 940-43 116]; 8·6% [6·6-10·4]) in 10-14-year-olds; self-harm (32 646 [29 530-36 416]; 13·4% [12·6-14·3]) in 15-19-year-old females; and road traffic injuries (48 757 [45 692-52 625]; 13·9% [13·3-14·3]) in 15-19-year-old males. Widespread declines in cause-specific mortality were estimated across age-sex groups and geographies in 2000-19, with few exceptions like collective violence. Interpretation: Child and adolescent survival needs focused attention. To translate the vision into actions, more investments in the health information infrastructure for cause of death and in the related life-saving interventions are needed