Probabilistic modeling and statistical inference for random fields and space-time processes

Author from publisher's list. Cover title.Final report for ONR Grant N00014-91-J-100

Nested ocean models: Work in progress

The ongoing work of combining three existing software programs into a nested grid oceanography model is detailed. The HYPER domain decomposition program, the SPEM ocean modeling program, and a quasi-geostrophic model written in England are being combined into a general ocean modeling facility. This facility will be used to test the viability and the capability of two-way nested grids in the North Atlantic

Fluid flow estimation with multiscale ensemble filters based on motion measurements under location uncertainty

International audienceThis paper proposes a novel multi-scale fluid flow data assimilation approach, which integrates and complements the advantages of a Bayesian sequential assimilation technique, the Weighted Ensemble Kalman filter (WEnKF). The data assimilation proposed in this work incorporates measurement brought by an efficient multiscale stochastic formulation of the well-known Lucas-Kanade (LK) estimator. This estimator has the great advantage to provide uncertainties associated to the motion measurements at different scales. The proposed assimilation scheme benefits from this multiscale uncertainty information and enables to enforce a physically plausible dynamical consistency of the estimated motion fields along the image sequence. Experimental evaluations are presented on synthetic and real fluid flow sequences

Synchronicity From Synchronized Chaos

The synchronization of loosely coupled chaotic oscillators, a phenomenon investigated intensively for the last two decades, may realize the philosophical notion of synchronicity. Effectively unpredictable chaotic systems, coupled through only a few variables, commonly exhibit a predictable relationship that can be highly intermittent. We argue that the phenomenon closely resembles the notion of meaningful synchronicity put forward by Jung and Pauli if one identifies "meaningfulness" with internal synchronization, since the latter seems necessary for synchronizability with an external system. Jungian synchronization of mind and matter is realized if mind is analogized to a computer model, synchronizing with a sporadically observed system as in meteorological data assimilation. Internal synchronization provides a recipe for combining different models of the same objective process, a configuration that may also describe the functioning of conscious brains. In contrast to Pauli's view, recent developments suggest a materialist picture of semi-autonomous mind, existing alongside the observed world, with both exhibiting a synchronistic order. Basic physical synchronicity is manifest in the non-local quantum connections implied by Bell's theorem. The quantum world resides on a generalized synchronization "manifold", a view that provides a bridge between nonlocal realist interpretations and local realist interpretations that constrain observer choice .Comment: 1) clarification regarding the connection with philosophical synchronicity in Section 2 and in the concluding section 2) reference to Maldacena-Susskind "ER=EPR" relation in discussion of role of wormholes in entanglement and nonlocality 3) length reduction and stylistic changes throughou

An estimate of the stratospheric contribution to springtime tropospheric ozone maxima using TOPSE measurements and beryllium-7 simulations

Measurements of tropospheric ozone (O3) between 30°N and 70°N show springtime maxima at remote locations. The contribution of seasonal changes in stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) to these maxima was investigated using measurements from the Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox Experiment (TOPSE) campaign and the beryllium-7 (7Be) distribution from a calculation driven by fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). Comparison with TOPSE measurements revealed that upper tropospheric model-calculated 7Be mixing ratios were reasonable (a change from previous calculations) but that lower tropospheric mixing ratios were too low most likely due to an overestimation of scavenging. Temporal fluctuations were well captured although their amplitudes were often underestimated. Analysis of O3measurements indicated that O3 mixing ratios increased by 5–10% month−1 for θ \u3c 300 K (the underworld) and by 10–15% month−1 for θ \u3e 300 K (the tropospheric middleworld). 7Be mixing ratios decreased with time for θ \u3c 290 K and increased with time for θ \u3e 300 K. Model-calculated middleworld increases of 7Be were a factor of 2 less than measured increases. 7Be with a stratospheric source (strat-7Be) increased by 4.6–8.8% month−1 along TOPSE flight paths within the tropospheric middleworld. Increases in strat-7Be were not seen along TOPSE flight paths in the underworld. Assuming changes in tropospheric O3 with a stratospheric source are the same as changes in strat-7Be and that 50% of O3 in the region of interest is produced in the stratosphere, changes in STE explain 20–60% of O3 increases in the tropospheric middleworld and less than 33% of O3 increases in the underworld