A relocatable ocean model in support of environmental emergencies

During the Costa Concordia emergency case, regional, subregional, and relocatable ocean models have been used together with the oil spill model, MEDSLIK-II, to provide ocean currents forecasts, possible oil spill scenarios, and drifters trajectories simulations. The models results together with the evaluation of their performances are presented in this paper. In particular, we focused this work on the implementation of the Interactive Relocatable Nested Ocean Model (IRENOM), based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), for the Costa Concordia emergency and on its validation using drifters released in the area of the accident. It is shown that thanks to the capability of improving easily and quickly its configuration, the IRENOM results are of greater accuracy than the results achieved using regional or subregional model products. The model topography, and to the initialization procedures, and the horizontal resolution are the key model settings to be configured. Furthermore, the IRENOM currents and the MEDSLIK-II simulated trajectories showed to be sensitive to the spatial resolution of the meteorological fields used, providing higher prediction skills with higher resolution wind forcing.MEDESS4MS Project; TESSA Project; MyOcean2 Projectinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Progress in operational modeling in support of oil spill response

Following the 2010 Deepwater Horizon accident of a massive blow-out in the Gulf of Mexico, scientists from government, industry, and academia collaborated to advance oil spill modeling and share best practices in model algorithms, parameterizations, and application protocols. This synergy was greatly enhanced by research funded under the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI), a 10-year enterprise that allowed unprecedented collection of observations and data products, novel experiments, and international collaborations that focused on the Gulf of Mexico, but resulted in the generation of scientific findings and tools of broader value. Operational oil spill modeling greatly benefited from research during the GoMRI decade. This paper provides a comprehensive synthesis of the related scientific advances, remaining challenges, and future outlook. Two main modeling components are discussed: Ocean circulation and oil spill models, to provide details on all attributes that contribute to the success and limitations of the integrated oil spill forecasts. These forecasts are discussed in tandem with uncertainty factors and methods to mitigate them. The paper focuses on operational aspects of oil spill modeling and forecasting, including examples of international operational center practices, observational needs, communication protocols, and promising new methodologies

Advances in statistical methodologies for mid-long term simulation of oil spills in the sea

RESUMEN: Con esta tesis se pretenden aportar nuevas metodologías para mejorar las herramientas disponibles actualmente para la lucha contra la contaminación marina por derrames de hidrocarburos. Por un lado, se propone una metodología para predecir de forma probabilística derrames en el medio-largo plazo. La parte más innovadora de esta metodología consiste en la simulación estadística, mediante modelos de regresión logística, de aquellas variables ambientales que afectan la evolución de un derrame en el mar. El modelado basado en regresión logística es aplicado en el golfo de México y en el Golfo de Vizcaya. En este segundo caso, los patrones ambientales obtenidos son empleados, posteriormente, para la predicción en el medio-largo plazo de derrames. Los resultados obtenidos en cada caso, demuestran el potencial de las técnicas propuestas. Por otro lado, se propone otra metodología enfocada al análisis de peligrosidad asociada a derrames profundos, basada en la extracción de patrones ambientales espacio-temporales. Esta metodología ha sido aplicada en el Mar del Norte y los resultados obtenidos comparados con metodologías tradicionales de estudio de peligrosidad, evidenciando las capacidades de la metodología propuesta, habiendo reducido enormemente los costes computacionales respecto a las técnicas tradicionales. Se ha demostrado como las metodologías propuestas en esta tesis pueden mejorar y ampliar los beneficios de las herramientas existentes para la lucha contra la contaminación marina.ABSTRACT: The aim of this thesis is the improvement of existing tools for the fight against oil spill marine pollution. On the one side, we developed a methodology for the probabilistic forecast of oil spills at the mid-long term. The core of the methodology is the statistical simulation of oil spill met-ocean forcings, using a logistic regression model. Logistic regression modeling of met-ocean patterns is applied in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Bay of Biscay. In the second case, mid-long term prediction of oil spill is achieved considering the statistically simulated met-ocean conditions. On the other hand, we proposed a methodology for deep oil spill hazard assessment, based on the selection of spatio-temporal met-ocean patterns. This methodology was applied in the North Sea, and the obtained results were compared with the ones achieved with a traditional hazard estimation technique, highlighting the benefit of the proposed method. The methodologies presented in this thesis have shown their ability and the benefits they could bring to the tools for the fight against marine pollution

OIL SPILL MODELING FOR IMPROVED RESPONSE TO ARCTIC MARITIME SPILLS: THE PATH FORWARD

Maritime shipping and natural resource development in the Arctic are projected to increase as sea ice coverage decreases, resulting in a greater probability of more and larger oil spills. The increasing risk of Arctic spills emphasizes the need to identify the state-of-the-art oil trajectory and sea ice models and the potential for their integration. The Oil Spill Modeling for Improved Response to Arctic Maritime Spills: The Path Forward (AMSM) project, funded by the Arctic Domain Awareness Center (ADAC), provides a structured approach to gather expert advice to address U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) Federal On-Scene Coordinator (FOSC) core needs for decision-making. The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Response & Restoration (OR&R) provides scientific support to the USCG FOSC during oil spill response. As part of this scientific support, NOAA OR&R supplies decision support models that predict the fate (including chemical and physical weathering) and transport of spilled oil. Oil spill modeling in the Arctic faces many unique challenges including limited availability of environmental data (e.g., currents, wind, ice characteristics) at fine spatial and temporal resolution to feed models. Despite these challenges, OR&R’s modeling products must provide adequate spill trajectory predictions, so that response efforts minimize economic, cultural and environmental impacts, including those to species, habitats and food supplies. The AMSM project addressed the unique needs and challenges associated with Arctic spill response by: (1) identifying state-of-the-art oil spill and sea ice models, (2) recommending new components and algorithms for oil and ice interactions, (3) proposing methods for improving communication of model output uncertainty, and (4) developing methods for coordinating oil and ice modeling efforts

Coastal Ocean Forecasting: science foundation and user benefits

The advancement of Coastal Ocean Forecasting Systems (COFS) requires the support of continuous scientific progress addressing: (a) the primary mechanisms driving coastal circulation; (b) methods to achieve fully integrated coastal systems (observations and models), that are dynamically embedded in larger scale systems; and (c) methods to adequately represent air-sea and biophysical interactions. Issues of downscaling, data assimilation, atmosphere-wave-ocean couplings and ecosystem dynamics in the coastal ocean are discussed. These science topics are fundamental for successful COFS, which are connected to evolving downstream applications, dictated by the socioeconomic needs of rapidly increasing coastal populations

Modelling the Eddy Pattern in the harbour of Zeebrugge

Hydrodynamic

Development of an operational tool for oil spill forecast: application to oil exposed regions

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente (Modelação), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014The objective of the following thesis is to present a modelling methodology, based on the MOHID system, which allows the development of coastal operational models by taking advantage of already implemented regional operational models using a downscaling approach. This increase in resolution allows studying the influence of coastal scale processes in the dynamics of oil spills, while contributing to more accurate forecasts. The methodology was used to forecast the evolution of oil spills in two distinct areas both prone to oil pollution events: Southwest Portuguese Coast and the Tuscany Archipelago (Italy). In both regions an operational model was developed and validated to a good level, using several types of oceanographic data available in European and global databases. The method was tested during the Costa Concordia accident, where operational forecasts aided the Italian authorities during the fuel removal operations. Also considered in this work are the interaction between waves/currents/wind in the dynamics of oil spills at sea, the identification of mesoscale circulation patterns and their influence on the risk to accidents as well as the integration of these numeric methods with early detection and monitoring systems.O objectivo da presente tese é apresentar uma metodologia de modelação, com base no sistema MOHID, que permite criar de forma robusta e expedita modelos operacionais costeiros tirando partido de modelos operacionais regionais já existentes numa abordagem de malhas encaixadas. Isto permite aumentar a resolução à escala costeira, conseguindo um estudo mais aprofundado da influência dos vários tipos de processos costeiros na dinâmica de derrames, ao mesmo tempo melhorando as previsões fornecidas. Esta metodologia foi usada para a previsão da evolução de manchas de hidrocarbonetos em duas zonas consideradas propensas a este tipo de poluição: Costa Sudoeste Portuguesa e o Arquipélago Toscano (Itália). Em ambos os casos de estudo os modelos operacionais implementados foram validados a um bom nível, utilizando vários tipos de dados oceanográficos disponíveis em bases de dados europeias e globais. A robustez do método foi testada durante as operações de retirada de combustível do navio Costa Concordia, para as quais o sistema forneceu previsões às autoridades Italianas. São ainda considerados na presente tese a interação entre ondas/correntes/vento na dinâmica das manchas de hidrocarbonetos no mar, a detecção de padrões de circulação de mesoescala e sua influência no risco a acidentes, bem como a integração destes métodos numéricos com sistemas de detecção e monitorização.Fundação para a Ciência e TecnologiaUniversidade do Algarv

Propuesta de metodología para la inserción del espíritu emprendedor en la planeación didáctica

In Nicaragua, valuable efforts have been made by the state, private companies and the education system to promote and develop entrepreneurship in the field of education, such is the case of the National Educational program "Learn, Undertake, prosper" which integrates the three educational subsystems. Despite these efforts, the implementation of strategies that allow the creation of an entrepreneurial educational profile in the different study houses must continue. In this sense, the need for a methodology that allows inserting entrepreneurship in the different study plans of university degrees is notorious, not necessarily creating new subjects, but designing learning strategies that allow the development and empowerment of promoting entrepreneurial culture in the students. Based on the references consulted, through this research a work methodology was proposed, which allowed the identification of learning strategies that included the empowerment of entrepreneurial characteristics, considering the thematic units and the attitudinal objectives that are carried out during the development of the academic activities, describing the logical sequence a for the pertinent design of the strategies, with the definition of the didactic resources necessary for its implementation, as well as the definition of the criteria to be considered by the teacher to check the development of the entrepreneurial spirit.En Nicaragua, se han realizado valiosos esfuerzos por parte del estado, empresa privada y el sistema de educación, para fomentar y desarrollar el emprendimiento en el campo de la educación, tal es el caso del programa Nacional Educativo “Aprender, Emprender, Prosperar” (AEP), que integra los tres subsistemas educativos. Pese a esos esfuerzos se debe continuar profundizando en la implementación de estrategias que permitan la creación de un perfil educativo emprendedor en las diferentes casas de estudio. En ese sentido, es notoria la necesidad de una metodología que permita insertar el emprendimiento en los diferentes planes de estudio de las carreras universitarias, no necesariamente creando nuevas asignaturas, sino diseñando estrategias de aprendizaje que permitan el desarrollo y potencialización del fomento de la cultura emprendedora en los estudiantes. Con base en los referentes consultados, a través de esta investigación se propuso  una metodología de trabajo, que permitió la identificación de estrategias de aprendizajes que incluyeron la potencialización de las características emprendedoras, considerando las unidades temáticas y los objetivos actitudinales que se llevan a cabo durante el desarrollo de las actividades académicas, describiendo la secuencia lógica a para el pertinente diseño de las estrategias, con la definición de los recursos didácticos necesarios para su implementación, así como la definición de los criterios a considerar por el docente para comprobar el desarrollo del espíritu emprendedor.&nbsp

Riesgo derivado por vertidos de hidrocarburos en la región oriental de las Aguas Canarias: modelo TESEO y sistema SIROCO

In view of the increasing oil interest shown by Spain and Morocco, the aim of this project is to test the risk of hypothetical spills of hydrocarbons in the eastern region of the Canary Islands waters and their surroundings through the Simulation Model of Hydrocarbon Transport (TESEO) and the Island Response and Operations System against Ocean Pollutants, in Spanish Sistemas Insulares de Respuesta y Operaciones Ante Contaminantes Oceánicos (SIROCO).En este trabajo se analizan a través del Modelo de Simulación de Transporte de Hidrocarburos (TESEO) y los Sistemas Insulares de Respuestas y Operaciones ante Contaminantes Oceánicos (SIROCO) el riesgo derivado de hipotéticos vertidos de hidrocarburos en la región oriental de las aguas canarias y sus proximidades ante el reciente interés petrolífero en la zona por parte de España y Marruecos