Predicting customer response to cross-market discounts using ensemble methods

A globalização dos mercados e o crescente número de empresas tem tornado a área do retalho extremamente competitiva. Esta realidade é transversal aos vários setores de retalho, como são exemplo o sector do vestuário, eletrodomésticos, alimentação, etc. Para se manterem competitivas, as empresas de retalho têm procurado novas formas de captar a atenção do público. Diferentes técnicas publicitárias e descontos são exemplos de estratégias utilizadas para atrair novos clientes e para preservar os atuais. Uma das novas técnicas utilizadas consiste no recurso aos denominados Cross-Market Discounts. Estes consistem em duas empresas, com um público-alvo semelhante, que oferecem descontos interligados, isto é, ao efetuar um transação na primeira empresa esta emitirá um cupão de desconto para ser utilizado numa transação na segunda empresa.O objetivo desta tese é construir modelos que permitam à empresa em estudo prever a resposta dos seus clientes a este tipo de campanhas. A empresa em estudo trata-se de uma empresa de retalho alimentar e que tem uma parceria com uma gasolineira. Os modelos serão suportados por diversas técnicas de data mining, e por forma a melhorar a performance destas técnicas, serão implementados métodos ensemble. O contributo desta tese passa pela implementação de métodos ensemble por forma a melhorar os modelos de previsão da adesão aos Cross-Market Discounts.The globalization of markets and the growing number of companies increased the competition between retail companies. This reality affects all sectores of retail, from clothing to grocery. New ways to keep and gain customers help the companies staying competitives. Diferent strategies like publicity and discounts are examples of tecnics used by the companies. One of the most recent tecniques is called cross-market discounts. This strategy consists of offering linked discounts in unrelated markets that have the same target customers but are not in direct competition with each other.The purpose of this thesis is to build models that allow the company predict the response of customers to the cross-market discounts. The company in study is a grocery retailer with a partnership with a gas company. The models will be supported by several data mining techniques and to enhace the performance, ensemble methods will be used.The contribution of this thesis is the implementation of ensemble methods in order to improve the models that predict the response to the cross-market discounts

Interfirm bundled discounts as a collusive device

This paper investigates whether and how firms competing in price with homogeneous goods (i.e., Bertrand competitors) can achieve supernormal profits using interfirm bundled discounts. By committing to offering price discounts conditional on the purchase of a specific brand of other differentiated good, the homogeneous good suppliers can separate consumers into distinct groups. Such brand-specific discounts help the firms relax competition and attain a collusive outcome. Consumers become worse o§ due to higher effective prices. Our result shows that in oligopolies it is feasible to leverage other's market power without excluding rivals

Exposure to risk and zero accident claims in automobile insurance

Prospective customers of financial and insurance products can be targeted based on the profit the provider expects to earn from them. We present a model for individual expected profit and two alternatives for calculating optimal personalized prices that maximize the expected profit. For one of these alternatives, we obtain a closed-form expression for the price offered to each prospective customer; for the other, we need to use a numerical approximation. In both approaches, the profits generated by prospective customers are not immediately observed, given that the products sold by these companies have a risk component. We assume that willingness to pay is heterogeneous and apply our methodology using real data from a European insurance company. Our study indicates that a substantial boost in profits can be expected when applying the simplest optimal pricing method proposed

Demand Externalities from Co-Location

We illustrate an approach to measure demand externalities from co-location by estimating household level changes in grocery spending at a supermarket among households that also buy gas at a co-located gas station, relative to those who do not. Controlling for observable and unobserved selection in the use of gas station, we find significant demand externalities; on average a household that buys gas has 7.7% to 9.3% increase in spending on groceries. Accounting for differences in gross margins, the profit from the grocery spillovers is 130% to 150% the profit from gasoline sales. The spillovers are moderated by store loyalty, with the gas station serving to cement the loyalty of store-loyal households. The grocery spillover effects are significant for traditional grocery products, but 23% larger for convenience stores. Thus co-location of a new category impacts both inter-format competition with respect to convenience stores (selling the new category) and intra-format competition with respect to other supermarkets (selling the existing categories)

Disseny d'un model d'avaluació de resultats de l'activitat de màrqueting per a empreses competint al mercat català i amb relació contractual amb els seus clients

L’objectiu de la tesi doctoral és el de desenvolupar un model que permeti valorar de forma objectiva les actuacions en matèria de màrqueting portades a terme per una organització. Aquest model està constituït per un conjunt de variables descriptives i quantitatives, anomenades variables de control, juntament amb una metodologia de càlcul i un sistema d’indicadors integrat que facilita la traçabilitat de les inversions de màrqueting i explicita la relació causa-efecte entre aquestes i el valor generat per a l’organització. El model s’utilitza per a valorar dades reals d’organitzacions que operin al mercat català i que compleixin la condició de basar la relació amb els seus clients en un model contractual (com veurem més endavant, és inviable aplicar un model comú per a tot tipus d’empresa). L’objectiu, doncs, és la valoració de l’acompliment dels seus objectius en relació als seus actius de mercat (marca i valor de client) i la creació d’un model específic, no generalitzable, per a aquest tipus d’empreses. Un segon objectiu d’aquest treball és l’anàlisi de les principals publicacions especialitzades referents des d’un punt de vista global i local, proposant en primer lloc una terminologia clara en relació a l’activitat de màrqueting, l’acompliment dels seus objectius i la conceptualització d’actius de mercat, i analitzant, en segon, l’impacte d’aquests àmbits i la seva evolució en els últims quinze anys. Alguns estudis previs (Llonch et al., 2002; Ambler i Xiucun, 2003; entre d’altres) es centren a comparar empreses per sectors, funcionalitats i països. És probable, com apunta Llonch et al. (2002) al fer això, que casuístiques atribuïbles a diferències geogràfiques i nacionals es tractin erròniament com a empresarials. A tal efecte, aquest estudi elimina la variabilitat per país i sector (parcialment, aquest darrer), proposant un model acotat, tal com recomanen Ambler et al., (2001), Llonch et al (2002), entre d’altres, que pugui servir de referència en la metodologia i en la validesa conceptual, i no tant en els resultats del model en un context més genèric. Pauwels (2009) demostra la relació entre la creació d’un model predefinit de variables i la millora del càlcul de l’eficiència en la despesa en màrqueting, pel que la creació d’aquest model integrat té l’objectiu d’esdevenir una eina de Gestió del Rendiment Corporatiu (GRC, en endavant1) (Bauer, 2004) aplicada a la gestió de màrqueting i els seus actius. Aquesta particularització del GRC rep el nom de Gestió del Rendiment de Màrqueting (GRM, en endavant2) (Ambler, 2000) i el seu objectiu és el d’augmentar la usabilitat i faciliti la generació d’informació per a la presa de decisions de la línia directiva de les organitzacions. L’abast de la tesi és el de crear el model des d’una perspectiva d’avaluació de l’activitat de màrqueting per part de la línia directiva, i no pas el desenvolupament informàtic d’una eina de suport a la presa de decisions ja que això, com apunten diversos autors (Dover, 2004; Schiff, 2008) i es tractarà amb més profunditat en el capítol 5, implicaria un nivell de personalització per cada empresa que no és objectiu d’aquesta tesi.The thes is aims to develop a practical model to asses m arketing perform ance within an organization. The model is basically structured around control metrics both from a qualitative and quantitatve approach, together with an integrated system of key performance indicators that enables marketing accountability through different organisational divisions, thus stating a solid cause/effect relationship between marketing activities and the value created for the organisation. The aformentioned model is used to assess marketing activites for catalan com panies with a contract-based customer relationship. Final assessment includes also a dynamic valuation of the company's market as sets . A second objective of the thes is is to review the current state of the art of marketing assessment literature from specialized journals both from a global and a local pers pective, defining a comprehensive list of related terms about marketing performance measurement, market-asset description and valuation and an accurate analysis about its evolution throughout the last 15 years.Postprint (published version

Cross-Market Discounts

Firms in several markets attract consumers by offering discounts in other unrelated markets. This promotion strategy, which we call "cross-market discounts," has been successfully adopted in the last few years by many grocery retailers in partnership with gasoline retailers across North America, Europe, and Australia. In this paper, we use an analytical model to investigate the major forces driving the profitability of this novel promotion strategy. We consider a generalized scenario in which purchases in a source market lead to price discounts redeemable in a target market. Our analysis shows that this strategy can be a revenue driver by simultaneously increasing prices as well as sales in the source market, even though we assume the demand curve to be downward sloping in price. Moreover, it distributes additional consumption (motivated by the discount) in two markets, and under diminishing marginal returns from consumption, this can simultaneously increase firm profits and consumer welfare more effectively than traditional nonlinear pricing strategies. Our study provides many other interesting insights as well, and our key results are in accordance with anecdotal evidence obtained from managers and industry publications.fuelperks!, retail promotions, nonlinear pricing, competition, game theory