Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation, analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with higher DG penetration levels

Naive possibilistic classifiers for imprecise or uncertain numerical data

International audienceIn real-world problems, input data may be pervaded with uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate the behavior of naive possibilistic classifiers, as a counterpart to naive Bayesian ones, for dealing with classification tasks in the presence of uncertainty. For this purpose, we extend possibilistic classifiers, which have been recently adapted to numerical data, in order to cope with uncertainty in data representation. Here the possibility distributions that are used are supposed to encode the family of Gaussian probabilistic distributions that are compatible with the considered dataset. We consider two types of uncertainty: (i) the uncertainty associated with the class in the training set, which is modeled by a possibility distribution over class labels, and (ii) the imprecision pervading attribute values in the testing set represented under the form of intervals for continuous data. Moreover, the approach takes into account the uncertainty about the estimation of the Gaussian distribution parameters due to the limited amount of data available. We first adapt the possibilistic classification model, previously proposed for the certain case, in order to accommodate the uncertainty about class labels. Then, we propose an algorithm based on the extension principle to deal with imprecise attribute values. The experiments reported show the interest of possibilistic classifiers for handling uncertainty in data. In particular, the probability-to-possibility transform-based classifier shows a robust behavior when dealing with imperfect data

Possibilistic networks parameter learning: Preliminary empirical comparison

International audienceLike Bayesian networks, possibilistic ones compactly encode joint uncertainty representations over a set of variables. Learning possibilistic networks from data in general and from imperfect or scarce data in particular, has not received enough attention. Indeed, only few works deal with learning the structure and the parameters of a possibilistic network from a dataset. This paper provides a preliminary comparative empirical evaluation of two approaches for learning the parameters of a possibilistic network from empirical data. The first method is a possibilistic approach while the second one first learns imprecise probability measures then transforms them into possibility distributions by means of probability-possibility transformations. The comparative evaluation focuses on learning belief networks on datasets with missing data and scarce datasets

Semantics for possibilistic answer set programs: uncertain rules versus rules with uncertain conclusions

Although Answer Set Programming (ASP) is a powerful framework for declarative problem solving, it cannot in an intuitive way handle situations in which some rules are uncertain, or in which it is more important to satisfy some constraints than others. Possibilistic ASP (PASP) is a natural extension of ASP in which certainty weights are associated with each rule. In this paper we contrast two different views on interpreting the weights attached to rules. Under the first view, weights reflect the certainty with which we can conclude the head of a rule when its body is satisfied. Under the second view, weights reflect the certainty that a given rule restricts the considered epistemic states of an agent in a valid way, i.e. it is the certainty that the rule itself is correct. The first view gives rise to a set of weighted answer sets, whereas the second view gives rise to a weighted set of classical answer sets

Possibilistic classifiers for numerical data

International audienceNaive Bayesian Classifiers, which rely on independence hypotheses, together with a normality assumption to estimate densities for numerical data, are known for their simplicity and their effectiveness. However, estimating densities, even under the normality assumption, may be problematic in case of poor data. In such a situation, possibility distributions may provide a more faithful representation of these data. Naive Possibilistic Classifiers (NPC), based on possibility theory, have been recently proposed as a counterpart of Bayesian classifiers to deal with classification tasks. There are only few works that treat possibilistic classification and most of existing NPC deal only with categorical attributes. This work focuses on the estimation of possibility distributions for continuous data. In this paper we investigate two kinds of possibilistic classifiers. The first one is derived from classical or flexible Bayesian classifiers by applying a probability–possibility transformation to Gaussian distributions, which introduces some further tolerance in the description of classes. The second one is based on a direct interpretation of data in possibilistic formats that exploit an idea of proximity between data values in different ways, which provides a less constrained representation of them. We show that possibilistic classifiers have a better capability to detect new instances for which the classification is ambiguous than Bayesian classifiers, where probabilities may be poorly estimated and illusorily precise. Moreover, we propose, in this case, an hybrid possibilistic classification approach based on a nearest-neighbour heuristics to improve the accuracy of the proposed possibilistic classifiers when the available information is insufficient to choose between classes. Possibilistic classifiers are compared with classical or flexible Bayesian classifiers on a collection of benchmarks databases. The experiments reported show the interest of possibilistic classifiers. In particular, flexible possibilistic classifiers perform well for data agreeing with the normality assumption, while proximity-based possibilistic classifiers outperform others in the other cases. The hybrid possibilistic classification exhibits a good ability for improving accuracy

A novel framework for predicting patients at risk of readmission

Uncertainty in decision-making for patients’ risk of re-admission arises due to non-uniform data and lack of knowledge in health system variables. The knowledge of the impact of risk factors will provide clinicians better decision-making and in reducing the number of patients admitted to the hospital. Traditional approaches are not capable to account for the uncertain nature of risk of hospital re-admissions. More problems arise due to large amount of uncertain information. Patients can be at high, medium or low risk of re-admission, and these strata have ill-defined boundaries. We believe that our model that adapts fuzzy regression method will start a novel approach to handle uncertain data, uncertain relationships between health system variables and the risk of re-admission. Because of nature of ill-defined boundaries of risk bands, this approach does allow the clinicians to target individuals at boundaries. Targeting individuals at boundaries and providing them proper care may provide some ability to move patients from high risk to low risk band. In developing this algorithm, we aimed to help potential users to assess the patients for various risk score thresholds and avoid readmission of high risk patients with proper interventions. A model for predicting patients at high risk of re-admission will enable interventions to be targeted before costs have been incurred and health status have deteriorated. A risk score cut off level would flag patients and result in net savings where intervention costs are much higher per patient. Preventing hospital re-admissions is important for patients, and our algorithm may also impact hospital income

Uncertainty-wise software anti-patterns detection: A possibilistic evolutionary machine learning approach

Context: Code smells (a.k.a. anti-patterns) are manifestations of poor design solutions that can deteriorate software maintainability and evolution. Research gap: Existing works did not take into account the issue of uncertain class labels, which is an important inherent characteristic of the smells detection problem. More precisely, two human experts may have different degrees of uncertainty about the smelliness of a particular software class not only for the smell detection task but also for the smell type identification one. Unluckily, existing approaches usually reject and/or ignore uncertain data that correspond to software classes (i.e. dataset instances) with uncertain labels. Throwing away and/or disregarding the uncertainty factor could considerably degrade the detection/identification process effectiveness. From a solution approach viewpoint, there is no work in the literature that proposed a method that is able to detect and/or identify code smells while preserving the uncertainty aspect. Objective: The main goal of our research work is to handle the uncertainty factor, issued from human experts, in detecting and/or identifying code smells by proposing an evolutionary approach that is able to deal with anti-patterns classification with uncertain labels. Method: We suggest Bi-ADIPOK, as an effective search-based tool that is capable to tackle the previously mentioned challenge for both detection and identification cases. The proposed method corresponds to an EA (Evolutionary Algorithm) that optimizes a set of detectors encoded as PK-NNs (Possibilistic K-nearest neighbors) based on a bi-level hierarchy, in which the upper level role consists on finding the optimal PK-NNs parameters, while the lower level one is to generate the PK-NNs. A newly fitness function has been proposed fitness function PomAURPC-OVA_dist (Possibilistic modified Area Under Recall Precision Curve One-Versus-All_distance, abbreviated PAURPC_d in this paper). Bi-ADIPOK is able to deal with label uncertainty using some concepts stemming from the Possibility Theory. Furthermore, the PomAURPC-OVA_dist is capable to process the uncertainty issue even with imbalanced data. We notice that Bi-ADIPOK is first built and then validated using a possibilistic base of smell examples that simulates and mimics the subjectivity of software engineers opinions. Results: The statistical analysis of the obtained results on a set of comparative experiments with respect to four relevant state-of-the-art methods shows the merits of our proposal. The obtained detection results demonstrate that, for the uncertain environment, the PomAURPC-OVA_dist of Bi-ADIPOK ranges between 0.902 and 0.932 and its IAC lies between 0.9108 and 0.9407, while for the certain environment, the PomAURPC-OVA_dist lies between 0.928 and 0.955 and the IAC ranges between 0.9477 and 0.9622. Similarly, the identification results, for the uncertain environment, indicate that the PomAURPC-OVA_dist of Bi-ADIPOK varies between 0.8576 and 0.9273 and its IAC is between 0.8693 and 0.9318. For the certain environment, the PomAURPC-OVA_dist lies between 0.8613 and 0.9351 and the IAC values are between 0.8672 and 0.9476. With uncertain data, Bi-ADIPOK can find 35% more code smells than the second best approach (i.e., BLOP). Furthermore, Bi-ADIPOK has succeeded to reduce the number of false alarms (i.e., misclassified smelly instances) by 12%. In addition, our proposed approach can identify 43% more smell types than BLOP and reduces the number of false alarms by 32%. The same results have been obtained for the certain environment, demonstrating Bi-ADIPOK's ability to deal with such environment

What is Computational Intelligence and where is it going?

What is Computational Intelligence (CI) and what are its relations with Artificial Intelligence (AI)? A brief survey of the scope of CI journals and books with ``computational intelligence'' in their title shows that at present it is an umbrella for three core technologies (neural, fuzzy and evolutionary), their applications, and selected fashionable pattern recognition methods. At present CI has no comprehensive foundations and is more a bag of tricks than a solid branch of science. The change of focus from methods to challenging problems is advocated, with CI defined as a part of computer and engineering sciences devoted to solution of non-algoritmizable problems. In this view AI is a part of CI focused on problems related to higher cognitive functions, while the rest of the CI community works on problems related to perception and control, or lower cognitive functions. Grand challenges on both sides of this spectrum are addressed