To boldly go:an occam-π mission to engineer emergence

Future systems will be too complex to design and implement explicitly. Instead, we will have to learn to engineer complex behaviours indirectly: through the discovery and application of local rules of behaviour, applied to simple process components, from which desired behaviours predictably emerge through dynamic interactions between massive numbers of instances. This paper describes a process-oriented architecture for fine-grained concurrent systems that enables experiments with such indirect engineering. Examples are presented showing the differing complex behaviours that can arise from minor (non-linear) adjustments to low-level parameters, the difficulties in suppressing the emergence of unwanted (bad) behaviour, the unexpected relationships between apparently unrelated physical phenomena (shown up by their separate emergence from the same primordial process swamp) and the ability to explore and engineer completely new physics (such as force fields) by their emergence from low-level process interactions whose mechanisms can only be imagined, but not built, at the current time

Agent-based modeling for environmental management. Case study: virus dynamics affecting Norwegian fish farming in fjords

Background: Norwegian fish-farming industry is an important industry, rapidly growing, and facing significant challenges such as the spread of pathogens1, trade-off between locations, fish production and health. There is a need for research, i.e. the development of theories (models), methods, techniques and tools for analysis, prediction and management, i.e. strategy development, policy design and decision making, to facilitate a sustainable industry. Loss due to the disease outbreaks in the aquaculture systems pose a large risk to a sustainable fish industry system, and pose a risk to the coastal and fjord ecosystem systems as a whole. Norwegian marine aquaculture systems are located in open areas (i.e. fjords) where they overlap and interact with other systems (e.g. transport, wild life, tourist, etc.). For instance, shedding viruses from aquaculture sites affect the wild fish in the whole fjord system. Fish disease spread and pathogen transmission in such complex systems, is process that it is difficult to predict, analyze, and control. There are several time-variant factors such as fish density, environmental conditions and other biological factors that affect the spread process. In this thesis, we developed methods to examine these factors on fish disease spread in fish populations and on pathogen spread in the time-space domain. Then we develop methods to control and manage the aquaculture system by finding optimal system settings in order to have a minimum infection risk and a high production capacity. Aim: The overall objective of the thesis is to develop agent-based models, methods and tools to facilitate the management of aquaculture production in Norwegian fjords by predicting the pathogen dynamics, distribution, and transmission in marine aquaculture systems. Specifically, the objectives are to assess agent-based modeling as an approach to understanding fish disease spread processes, to develop agent-based models that help us predict, analyze and understand disease dynamics in the context of various scenarios, and to develop a framework to optimize the location and the load of the aquaculture systems so as to minimize the infection risk in a growing fish industry. Methods: We use agent-based method to build models to simulate disease dynamics in fish populations and to simulate pathogen transmission between several aquaculture sites in a Norwegian fjord. Also, we use particle swarm optimization algorithm to identify agent-based models’ parameters so as to optimize the dynamics of the system model. In this context, we present a framework for using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to identify the parameter values of the agent-based model of aquaculture system that are expected to yield the optimal fish densities and farm locations that avoid the risk of spreading disease. The use of particle swarm optimization algorithm helps in identifying optimal agent-based models’ input parameters depending on the feedback from the agentbased models’ outputs. Results: As the thesis is built on three main studies, the results of the thesis work can be divided into three components. In the first study, we developed many agent-based models to simulate fish disease spread in stand-alone fish populations. We test the models in different scenarios by varying the agents (i.e. fish and pathogens) parameters, environment parameters (i.e. seawater temperature and currents), and interactions (interaction between agents-agents, and agents-environment) parameters. We use sensitivity analysis method to test different key input parameters such as fish density, fish swimming behavior, seawater temperature, and sea currents to show their effects on the disease spread process. Exploring the sensitivity of fish disease dynamics to these key parameters helps in combatting fish disease spread. In the second study, we build infection risk maps in a space-time domain, by developing agent-based models to identify the pathogen transmission patterns. The agent-based method helps us advance our understanding of pathogen transmission and builds risk maps to help us reduce the spread of infectious fish diseases. By using this method, we may study the spatial and dynamic aspects of the spread of infections and address the stochastic nature of the infection process. In the third study, we developed a framework for the optimization of the aquaculture systems. The framework uses particle swarm optimization algorithm to optimize agent-based models’ parameters so as to optimize the objective function. The framework was tested by developing a model to find optimal fish densities and farm locations in marine aquaculture system in a Norwegian fjord. Results show so that the rapid convergence of the presented particle swarm optimization algorithm to the optimal solution, - the algorithm requires a maximum of 18 iterations to find the best solution which can increase the fish density to three times while keeping the risk of infection at an accepted level. Conclusion: There are many contributions of this research work. First, we assessed the agent-based modeling as a method to simulate and analyze fish disease spread dynamics as a foundation for managing aquaculture systems. Results from this study demonstrate how effective the use of agentbased method is in the simulation of infectious diseases. By using this method, we are able to study spatial aspects of the spread of fish diseases and address the stochastic nature of infections process. Agent-based models are flexible, and they can include many external factors that affect fish disease dynamics such as interactions with wild fish and ship traffic. Agent-based models successfully help us to overcome the problem associated with lack of data in fish disease transmission and contribute to our understanding of different cause-effects relationships in the dynamics of fish diseases. Secondly, we developed methods to build infection risk maps in a space-time domain conditioned upon the identification of the pathogen transmission patterns in such a space-time domain, so as to help prevent and, if needed, combat infectious fish diseases by informing the management of the fish industry in Norway. Finally, we developed a method by which we may optimize the fish densities and farm locations of aquaculture systems so as to ensure a sustainable fish industry with a minimum risk of infection and a high production capacity. This PhD study offers new research-based approaches, models and tools for analysis, predictions and management that can be used to facilitate a sustainable development of the marine aquaculture industry with a maximal economic outcome and a minimal environmental impact

Autonomous characters in virtual environments: The technologies involved in artificial life and their affects on perceived intelligence and playability of computer games

Computer games are viewed by academics as un֊grounded hack and patch experiments. "The industry lacks the formalism and requirement for a "perfect" solution often necessary in the academic world " [Woob]. Academic Artifical Intelligence (AI) is often viewed as un-implementable and narrow minded by the majority of ทon-AI programmer. "Historically, AI tended to be focused, containing detailed problems and domain-specific techniques. This focus makes for easier study - or engineering - of particular solutions. " [СһаОЗ .By implementing several well known AI techniques into the same gaming environment and judging users reactions this project aims to make links between the academic nature of AI, as well as investigate the nature of practical implementation in a gaming environment. An online Java implemented version of the 1970'ร classic Space Invaders has been developed and tested, with the Aliens being controlled by 6 different approaches to modelling AI functions. In total information from 334 individuals games was recorded. Different types of games AI can create highly varied gaming experience as highlighted by the range of values and high standard deviation values seen in the results. The link between complex behaviour, complex control systems and perceived intelligence was not supported. A positive correlation identified between how fun the users found the game and how intelligent they perceived the Aliens to be, would seem to be logical. As games get visually more and more impressive, the need for intelligent characters cannot be denied because it is one of the few way in which games can set themselves apart from the competition. Conclusions identified that computer games must remain focussed on their end- goal, that of producing a fun game. Whilst complex and clever AI can help to achieve it, the AI itself can never overshadow the end result

Towards A Novel Unified Framework for Developing Formal, Network and Validated Agent-Based Simulation Models of Complex Adaptive Systems

Literature on the modeling and simulation of complex adaptive systems (cas) has primarily advanced vertically in different scientific domains with scientists developing a variety of domain-specific approaches and applications. However, while cas researchers are inherently interested in an interdisciplinary comparison of models, to the best of our knowledge, there is currently no single unified framework for facilitating the development, comparison, communication and validation of models across different scientific domains. In this thesis, we propose first steps towards such a unified framework using a combination of agent-based and complex network-based modeling approaches and guidelines formulated in the form of a set of four levels of usage, which allow multidisciplinary researchers to adopt a suitable framework level on the basis of available data types, their research study objectives and expected outcomes, thus allowing them to better plan and conduct their respective research case studies. Firstly, the complex network modeling level of the proposed framework entails the development of appropriate complex network models for the case where interaction data of cas components is available, with the aim of detecting emergent patterns in the cas under study. The exploratory agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework allows for the development of proof-of-concept models for the cas system, primarily for purposes of exploring feasibility of further research. Descriptive agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework allows for the use of a formal step-by-step approach for developing agent-based models coupled with a quantitative complex network and pseudocode-based specification of the model, which will, in turn, facilitate interdisciplinary cas model comparison and knowledge transfer. Finally, the validated agent-based modeling level of the proposed framework is concerned with the building of in-simulation verification and validation of agent-based models using a proposed Virtual Overlay Multiagent System approach for use in a systematic team-oriented approach to developing models. The proposed framework is evaluated and validated using seven detailed case study examples selected from various scientific domains including ecology, social sciences and a range of complex adaptive communication networks. The successful case studies demonstrate the potential of the framework in appealing to multidisciplinary researchers as a methodological approach to the modeling and simulation of cas by facilitating effective communication and knowledge transfer across scientific disciplines without the requirement of extensive learning curves

Formation and organisation in robot swarms.

A swarm is defined as a large and independent collection of heterogeneous or homogeneous agents operating in a common environment and seemingly acting in a coherent and coordinated manner. Swarm architectures promote decentralisation and self-organisation which often leads to emergent behaviour. The emergent behaviour of the swarm results from the interactions of the swarm with its environment (or fellow agents), but not as a direct result of design. The creation of artificially simulated swarms or practical robot swarms has become an interesting topic of research in the last decade. Even though many studies have been undertaken using a practical approach to swarm construction, there are still many problems need to be addressed. Such problems include the problem of how to control very simple agents to form patterns; the problem of how an attractor will affect flocking behaviour; and the problem of bridging formation of multiple agents in connecting multiple locations. The central goal of this thesis is to develop early novel theories and algorithms to support swarm robots in. pattern formation tasks. To achieve this, appropriate tools for understanding how to model, design and control individual units have to be developed. This thesis consists of three independent pieces of research work that address the problem of pattern formation of robot swarms in both a centralised and a decentralised way.The first research contribution proposes algorithms of line formation and cluster formation in a decentralised way for relatively simple homogenous agents with very little memory, limited sensing capabilities and processing power. This research utilises the Finite State Machine approach.In the second research contribution, by extending Wilensky's (1999) work on flocking, three different movement models are modelled by changing the maximum viewing angle each agent possesses during the course of changing its direction. An object which releases an artificial potential field is then introduced in the centre of the arena and the behaviours of the collective movement model are studied.The third research contribution studies the complex formation of agents in a task that requires a formation of agents between two locations. This novel research proposes the use Of L-Systems that are evolved using genetic algorithms so that more complex pattern formations can be represented and achieved. Agents will need to have the ability to interpret short strings of rules that form the basic DNA of the formation