Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (salmo trutta l.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change

[EN] A fuzzy rule-based system combining empirical data on hydraulic preferences and literature information on temperature requirements was used to foresee the brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. The climatic scenarios for the Cabriel River (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) corresponded to two Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5) for the short (2011¿2040) and mid (2041¿2070) term horizons. The hydraulic and hydrologic modelling were undertaken with process-based numerical models (i.e., River2D© and HBV-light) while the water temperature was modelled by assembling the predictions of three machine learning techniques (M5, Multi-Adaptive Regression Splines and Support Vector Regression). The predicted rise in the water temperature will not be compensated by the more benign lower flows. Consequently, the suitable spawning habitat will be reduced between 15.4¿48.7%. The entire population shall suffer the effects of climate change and will probably be extirpated from the downstream segments of the river.The study has been partially funded by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and FEDER funds and by the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Environment). The authors thank AEMET and UC for the data provided for this work (dataset Spain02). Finally, we are grateful to the colleagues who worked in the field and in preliminary data analyses; especially Marcello Minervini (funded by the EU programme of Erasmus Traineeships, at the Dept. of Hydraulic Engineering and Environment, Universitat Politècnica de València).Muñoz Mas, R.; Marcos-García, P.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Martínez-García, F.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Martinez-Capel, F. (2018). Combining literature-based and data-driven fuzzy models to predict brown trout (salmo trutta l.) spawning habitat degradation induced by climate change. Ecological Modelling. 386:98-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.08.012S9811438

An experimental study of a fuzzy adaptive emperor penguin optimizer for global optimization problem

Emperor Penguin Optimizer (EPO) is a recently developed population-based meta-heuristic algorithm that simulates the huddling behavior of emperor penguins. Mixed results have been observed on the performance of EPO in solving general optimization problems. Within the EPO, two parameters need to be tuned (namely f and l ) to ensure a good balance between exploration (i.e., roaming unknown locations) and exploitation (i.e., manipulating the current known best). Since the search contour varies depending on the optimization problem, the tuning of f and l is problem-dependent, and there is no one-size-fits-all approach. To alleviate these problems, an adaptive mechanism can be introduced in EPO. This paper proposes a fuzzy adaptive variant of EPO, namely Fuzzy Adaptive Emperor Penguin Optimizer (FAEPO), to solve this problem. As the name suggests, FAEPO can adaptively tune the parameters f and l throughout the search based on three measures (i.e., quality, success rate, and diversity of the current search) via fuzzy decisions. A test suite of twelve optimization benchmark test functions and three global optimization problems (Team Formation Optimization - TFO, Low Autocorrelation Binary Sequence - LABS, and Modified Condition/Decision Coverage - MC/DC test case generation) were solved using the proposed algorithm. The respective solution results of the benchmark meta-heuristic algorithms were compared. The experimental results demonstrate that FAEPO significantly improved the performance of its predecessor (EPO) and gives superior performance against the competing meta-heuristic algorithms, including an improved variant of EPO (IEPO)

Design of optimal reservoir operating rules in large water resources systems combining stochastic programming, fuzzy logic and expert criteria

Given the high degree of development of hydraulic infrastructure in the developed countries, and with the increasing opposition to constructing new facilities in developing countries, the focus of water resource system analysis has turned into defining adequate operation strategies. Better management is necessary to cope with the challenge of supplying increasing demands and conflicts on water allocation while facing climate change impacts. To do so, a large set of mathematical simulation and optimization tools have been developed. However, the real application of these techniques is still limited. One of the main lines of research to fix this issue regards to the involvement of experts' knowledge in the definition of mathematical algorithms. To define operating rules in a way in which system operators could rely, their expert knowledge should be fully accounted and merged with the results from mathematical algorithms. This thesis develops a methodological framework and the required tools to improve the operation of large-scale water resource systems. In such systems, decision-making processes are complex and supported, at least partially, by the expert knowledge of decision-makers. This importance of expert judgment in the operation strategies requires mathematical tools able to embed and combine it with optimization algorithms. The methods and tools developed in this thesis rely on stochastic programming, fuzzy logic and the involvement of system operators during the whole rule-defining process. An extended stochastic programming algorithm, able to be used in large-scale water resource systems including stream-aquifer interactions, has been developed (the CSG-SDDP). The methodological framework proposed uses fuzzy logic to capture the expert knowledge in the definition of optimal operating rules. Once the current decision-making process is fairly reproduced using fuzzy logic and expert knowledge, stochastic programming results are introduced and thus the performance of the rules is improved. The framework proposed in this thesis has been applied to the Jucar river system (Eastern Spain), in which scarce resources are allocated following complex decision-making processes. We present two applications. In the first one, the CSG-SDDP algorithm has been used to define economically-optimal conjunctive use strategies for a joint operation of reservoirs andaquifers. In the second one, we implement a collaborative framework to couple historical records with expert knowledge and criteria to define a decision support system (DSS) for the seasonal operation of the reservoirs of the Jucar River system. The co-developed DSS tool explicitly reproduces the decision-making processes and criteria considered by the system operators. Two fuzzy logic systems have been developed and linked with this purpose, as well as with fuzzy regressions to preview future inflows. The DSS developed was validated against historical records. The developed framework offers managers a simple way to define a priori suitable decisions, as well as to explore the consequences of any of them. The resulting representation has been then combined with the CSG-SDDP algorithm in order to improve the rules following the current decision-making process. Results show that reducing pumping from the Mancha Oriental aquifer would lead to higher systemwide benefits due to increased flows by stream-aquifer interaction. The operating rules developed successfully combined fuzzy logic, expert judgment and stochastic programming, increasing water allocations to the demands by changing the way in which Alarcon, Contreras and Tous are balanced. These rules follow the same decision-making processes currently done in the system, so system operators would feel familiar with them. In addition, they can be contrasted with the current operating rules to determine what operation options can be coherent with the current management and, at the same time, achieve an optimal operationDado el alto número de infraestructuras construidas en los países desarrollados, y con una oposición creciente a la construcción de nuevas infraestructuras en los países en vías de desarrollo, la atención del análisis de sistemas de recursos hídricos ha pasado a la definición de reglas de operación adecuadas. Una gestión más eficiente del recurso hídrico es necesaria para poder afrontar los impactos del cambio climático y de la creciente demanda de agua. Para lograrlo, un amplio abanico de herramientas y modelos matemáticos de optimización se han desarrollado. Sin embargo, su aplicación práctica en la gestión hídrica sigue siendo limitada. Una de las más importantes líneas de investigación para solucionarlo busca la involucración de los expertos en la definición de dichos modelos matemáticos. Para definir reglas de operación en las cuales los gestores confíen, es necesario tener en cuenta su criterio experto y combinarlo con algoritmos de optimización. La presente tesis desarrolla una metodología, y las herramientas necesarias para aplicarla, con el fin de mejorar la operación de sistemas complejos de recursos hídricos. En éstos, los procesos de toma de decisiones son complicados y se sustentan, al menos en parte, en el juicio experto de los gestores. Esta importancia del criterio de experto en las reglas de operación requiere herramientas matemáticas capaces de incorporarlo en su estructura y de unirlo con algoritmos de optimización. Las herramientas y métodos desarrollados se basan en la optimización estocástica, en la lógica difusa y en la involucración de los expertos durante todo el proceso. Un algoritmo estocástico extendido, capaz de ser usado en sistemas complejos con interacciones río-acuífero se ha desarrollado (el CSG-SDDP). La metodología definida usa lógica difusa para capturar el criterio de experto en la definición de reglas óptimas. En primer lugar se reproducen los procesos de toma de decisiones actuales y, tras ello, el algoritmo de optimización estocástica se emplea para mejorar las reglas previamente obtenidas. La metodología propuesta en esta tesis se ha aplicado al sistema Júcar (Este de España), en el que los recursos hídricos son gestionados de acuerdo a complejos procesos de toma de decisiones. La aplicación se ha realizado de dos formas. En la primera, el algoritmo CSG-SDDP se ha utilizado para definir una estrategia óptima para el uso conjunto de embalses y acuíferos. En la segunda, la metodología se ha usado para reproducir las reglas de operación actuales en base a criterio de expertos. La herramienta desarrollada reproduce de forma explícita los procesos de toma de decisiones seguidos por los operadores del sistema. Dos sistemas lógicos difusos se han empleado e interconectado con este fin, así como regresiones difusas para predecir aportaciones. El Sistema de Ayuda a la Decisión (SAD) creado se ha validado comparándolo con los datos históricos. La metodología desarrollada ofrece a los gestores una forma sencilla de definir decisiones a priori adecuadas, así como explorar las consecuencias de una decisión concreta. La representación matemática resultante se ha combinado entonces con el CSG-SDDP para definir reglas óptimas que respetan los procesos actuales. Los resultados obtenidos indican que reducir el bombeo del acuífero de la Mancha Oriental conlleva una mejora en los beneficios del sistema debido al incremento de caudal por relación río-acuífero. Las reglas de operación han sido adecuadamente desarrolladas combinando lógica difusa, juicio experto y optimización estocástica, aumentando los suministros a las demandas mediante modificaciones el balance de Alarcón, Contreras y Tous. Estas reglas siguen los procesos de toma de decisiones actuales en el Júcar, por lo que pueden resultar familiares a los gestores. Además, pueden compararse con las reglas de operación actuales para establecer qué decisiones entreDonat l'alt nombre d'infraestructures construïdes en els països desenrotllats, i amb una oposició creixent a la construcció de noves infraestructures en els països en vies de desenrotllament, l'atenció de l'anàlisi de sistemes de recursos hídrics ha passat a la definició de regles d'operació adequades. Una gestió més eficient del recurs hídric és necessària per a poder afrontar els impactes del canvi climàtic i de la creixent demanda d'aigua. Per a aconseguir-ho, una amplia selecció de ferramentes i models matemàtics d'optimització s'han desenrotllat. No obstant això, la seua aplicació pràctica en la gestió hídrica continua sent limitada. Una de les més importants línies d'investigació per a solucionar-ho busca la col·laboració activa dels experts en la definició dels models matemàtics. Per a definir regles d'operació en les quals els gestors confien, és necessari tindre en compte el seu criteri expert i combinar-ho amb algoritmes d'optimització. La present tesi desenrotlla una metodologia, i les ferramentes necessàries per a aplicar-la, amb la finalitat de millorar l'operació de sistemes complexos de recursos hídrics. En estos, els processos de presa de decisions són complicats i se sustenten, almenys en part, en el juí expert dels gestors. Esta importància del criteri d'expert en les regles d'operació requereix ferramentes matemàtiques capaces d'incorporar-lo en la seua estructura i d'unir-lo amb algoritmes d'optimització. Les ferramentes i mètodes desenrotllats es basen en l'optimització estocàstica, en la lògica difusa i en la col·laboració activa dels experts durant tot el procés. Un algoritme estocàstic avançat, capaç de ser usat en sistemes complexos amb interaccions riu-aqüífer, s'ha desenrotllat (el CSG-SDDP) . La metodologia definida utilitza lògica difusa per a capturar el criteri d'expert en la definició de regles òptimes. En primer lloc es reprodueixen els processos de presa de decisions actuals i, després d'això, l'algoritme d'optimització estocàstica s'empra per a millorar les regles prèviament obtingudes. La metodologia proposada en esta tesi s'ha aplicat al sistema Xúquer (Est d'Espanya), en el que els recursos hídrics són gestionats d'acord amb complexos processos de presa de decisions. L'aplicació s'ha realitzat de dos formes. En la primera, l'algoritme CSG-SDDP s'ha utilitzat per a definir una estratègia òptima per a l'ús conjunt d'embassaments i aqüífers. En la segona, la metodologia s'ha usat per a reproduir les regles d'operació actuals basant-se en criteri d'experts. La ferramenta desenvolupada reprodueix de forma explícita els processos de presa de decisions seguits pels operadors del sistema. Dos sistemes lògics difusos s'han empleat i interconnectat amb este fi, al igual què regressions difuses per preveure cabdals. El Sistema d'Ajuda a la Decisió (SAD) creat s'ha validat comparant-lo amb les dades històriques. La metodologia desenvolupada ofereix als gestors una manera senzilla de definir decisions a priori adequades, així com per explorar les conseqüències d'una decisió concreta. La representació matemàtica resultant s'ha combinat amb el CSG-SDDP per a definir regles òptimes que respecten els processos actuals. Els resultats obtinguts indiquen que reduir el bombament de l'aqüífer de la Mancha Oriental comporta una millora en els beneficis del sistema a causa de l'increment de l'aigua per relació riu-aqüífer. Les regles d'operació han sigut adequadament desenrotllades combinant lògica difusa, juí expert i optimització estocàstica, augmentant els subministres a les demandes per mitjà de modificacions del balanç d'Alarcón, Contreras i Tous. Estes regles segueixen els processos de presa de decisions actuals en el Xúquer, per la qual cosa poden resultar familiars als gestors. A més, poden comparar-se amb les regles d'operació actuals per a establir quines decisions entre les possibles serien coherentsMacián Sorribes, H. (2017). Design of optimal reservoir operating rules in large water resources systems combining stochastic programming, fuzzy logic and expert criteria [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/82554TESI

Spatial modelling of Gully erosion using GIS and R programing: A comparison among three data mining algorithms

© 2018 by the authors. Gully erosion triggers land degradation and restricts the use of land. This study assesses the spatial relationship between gully erosion (GE) and geo-environmental variables (GEVs) using Weights-of-Evidence (WoE) Bayes theory, and then applies three data mining methods-Random Forest (RF), boosted regression tree (BRT), and multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS)-for gully erosion susceptibility mapping (GESM) in the Shahroud watershed, Iran. Gully locations were identified by extensive field surveys, and a total of 172 GE locationsweremapped. Twelve gully-related GEVs: Elevation, slope degree, slope aspect, plan curvature, convergence index, topographic wetness index (TWI), lithology, land use/land cover (LU/LC), distance from rivers, distance from roads, drainage density, and NDVI were selected to model GE. The results of variables importance by RF and BRT models indicated that distance from road, elevation, and lithology had the highest effect on GE occurrence. The area under the curve (AUC) and seed cell area index (SCAI) methods were used to validate the three GE maps. The results showed that AUC for the three models varies from 0.911 to 0.927, whereas the RF model had a prediction accuracy of 0.927 as per SCAI values, when compared to the other models. The findings will be of help for planning and developing the studied region

Optimized energy management strategies and sizing of hybrid storage systems for transport applications

205 p. El contenido del capítulo 4, sección 4.3 está sujeto a confidencialidad.Esta tesis doctoral aborda la temática acerca del óptimo dimensionamiento y operación de sistemashíbridos de almacenamiento de energía (HESS), combinando baterías y supercapacitores, con el objetivode ser integrados en vehículos para movilidad pública en entornos urbanos. Por una parte, se propone unainnovadora estrategia energética, basada en lógica difusa, para gestionar la división de la demanda depotencia entre las fuentes de energía disponibles a bordo del vehículo. La estrategia adaptativa que sepropone evalúa la información energética actual y futura (estimada) para adaptar, de una formaoptimizada y eficiente, la operación del sistema con el objetivo de mejorar el aprovechamiento de laenergía almacenada en los recursos a bordo del vehículo.Por otro lado, se ha propuesto una metodología para la co-optimización de la estrategia de gestión ydimensionamiento del HESS. Esta metodología de optimización evalúa tanto técnica comoeconómicamente las posibles soluciones mediante un problema multi-objetivo basado en algoritmosgenéticos. Para determinar el costo de reemplazo del HESS han sido aplicados modelo de envejecimientoy estimación de vida y se ha considerado la vida útil del vehículo.Con el objetivo de validar la propuesta de esta tesis doctoral, dos casos de estudio relevantes en latransportación pública han sido seleccionados: Tranvía Eléctrico Híbrido y Autobús Eléctrico Híbrido

Access Network Selection in Heterogeneous Networks

The future Heterogeneous Wireless Network (HWN) is composed of multiple Radio Access Technologies (RATs), therefore new Radio Resource Management (RRM) schemes and mechanisms are necessary to benefit from the individual characteristics of each RAT and to exploit the gain resulting from jointly considering the whole set of the available radio resources in each RAT. These new RRM schemes have to support mobile users who can access more than one RAT alternatively or simultaneously using a multi-mode terminal. An important RRM consideration for overall HWN stability, resource utilization, user satisfaction, and Quality of Service (QoS) provisioning is the selection of the most optimal and promising Access Network (AN) for a new service request. The RRM mechanism that is responsible for selecting the most optimal and promising AN for a new service request in the HWN is called the initial Access Network Selection (ANS). This thesis explores the issue of ANS in the HWN. Several ANS solutions that attempt to increase the user satisfaction, the operator benefits, and the QoS are designed, implemented, and evaluated. The thesis first presents a comprehensive foundation for the initial ANS in the H\VN. Then, the thesis analyses and develops a generic framework for solving the ANS problem and any other similar optimized selection problem. The advantages and strengths of the developed framework are discussed. Combined Fuzzy Logic (FL), Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used to give the developed framework the required scalability, flexibility, and simplicity. The developed framework is used to present and design several novel ANS algorithms that consider the user, the operator, and the QoS view points. Different numbers of RATs, MCDM tools, and FL inference system types are used in each algorithm. A suitable simulation models over the HWN with a new set of performance evolution metrics for the ANS solution are designed and implemented. The simulation results show that the new algorithms have better and more robust performance over the random, the service type, and the terminal speed based selection algorithms that are used as reference algorithms. Our novel algorithms outperform the reference algorithms in- terms of the percentage of the satisfied users who are assigned to the network of their preferences and the percentage of the users who are assigned to networks with stronger signal strength. The new algorithms maximize the operator benefits by saving the high cost network resources and utilizing the usage of the low cost network resources. Usually better results are achieved by assigning the weights using the GA optional component in the implemented algorithms

Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Computing

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a subject garnering increasing attention in both academia and the industry today. The understanding is that AI-enhanced methods and techniques create a variety of opportunities related to improving basic and advanced business functions, including production processes, logistics, financial management and others. As this collection demonstrates, AI-enhanced tools and methods tend to offer more precise results in the fields of engineering, financial accounting, tourism, air-pollution management and many more. The objective of this collection is to bring these topics together to offer the reader a useful primer on how AI-enhanced tools and applications can be of use in today’s world. In the context of the frequently fearful, skeptical and emotion-laden debates on AI and its value added, this volume promotes a positive perspective on AI and its impact on society. AI is a part of a broader ecosystem of sophisticated tools, techniques and technologies, and therefore, it is not immune to developments in that ecosystem. It is thus imperative that inter- and multidisciplinary research on AI and its ecosystem is encouraged. This collection contributes to that

Frequency regulation in wind integrated power system

This Thesis has broader implications in terms of improvement in wind generation modeling which is a current requirement for prospective operational planning tools for future grid. This thesis mainly deals with various modelling issues encountered in wind integrated power system for frequency regulation. Thesis provides development of grid code compatible, frequency responsive type 4 wind turbine generator system and analysis of the wind energy systems frequency regulation capability and their integration impact on interconnected power system.<br /

System modelling and control

Not Availabl

A framework for tumor segmentation and interactive immersive visualization of medical image data for surgical planning

This dissertation presents the framework for analyzing and visualizing digital medical images. Two new segmentation methods have been developed: a probability based segmentation algorithm, and a segmentation algorithm that uses a fuzzy rule based system to generate similarity values for segmentation. A visualization software application has also been developed to effectively view and manipulate digital medical images on a desktop computer as well as in an immersive environment.;For the probabilistic segmentation algorithm, image data are first enhanced by manually setting the appropriate window center and width, and if needed a sharpening or noise removal filter is applied. To initialize the segmentation process, a user places a seed point within the object of interest and defines a search region for segmentation. Based on the pixels\u27 spatial and intensity properties, a probabilistic selection criterion is used to extract pixels with a high probability of belonging to the object. To facilitate the segmentation of multiple slices, an automatic seed selection algorithm was developed to keep the seeds in the object as its shape and/or location changes between consecutive slices.;The second segmentation method, a new segmentation method using a fuzzy rule based system to segment tumors in a three-dimensional CT data was also developed. To initialize the segmentation process, the user selects a region of interest (ROI) within the tumor in the first image of the CT study set. Using the ROI\u27s spatial and intensity properties, fuzzy inputs are generated for use in the fuzzy rules inference system. Using a set of predefined fuzzy rules, the system generates a defuzzified output for every pixel in terms of similarity to the object. Pixels with the highest similarity values are selected as tumor. This process is automatically repeated for every subsequent slice in the CT set without further user input, as the segmented region from the previous slice is used as the ROI for the current slice. This creates a propagation of information from the previous slices, used to segment the current slice. The membership functions used during the fuzzification and defuzzification processes are adaptive to the changes in the size and pixel intensities of the current ROI. The proposed method is highly customizable to suit different needs of a user, requiring information from only a single two-dimensional image.;Segmentation results from both algorithms showed success in segmenting the tumor from seven of the ten CT datasets with less than 10% false positive errors and five test cases with less than 10% false negative errors. The consistency of the segmentation results statistics also showed a high repeatability factor, with low values of inter- and intra-user variability for both methods.;The visualization software developed is designed to load and display any DICOM/PACS compatible three-dimensional image data for visualization and interaction in an immersive virtual environment. The software uses the open-source libraries DCMTK: DICOM Toolkit for parsing of digital medical images, Coin3D and SimVoleon for scenegraph management and volume rendering, and VRJuggler for virtual reality display and interaction. A user can apply pseudo-coloring in real time with multiple interactive clipping planes to slice into the volume for an interior view. A windowing feature controls the tissue density ranges to display. A wireless gamepad controller as well as a simple and intuitive menu interface control user interactions. The software is highly scalable as it can be used on a single desktop computer to a cluster of computers for an immersive multi-projection virtual environment. By wearing a pair of stereo goggles, the surgeon is immersed within the model itself, thus providing a sense of realism as if the surgeon is inside the patient.;The tools developed in this framework are designed to improve patient care by fostering the widespread use of advanced visualization and computational intelligence in preoperative planning, surgical training, and diagnostic assistance. Future work includes further improvements to both segmentation methods with plans to incorporate the use of deformable models and level set techniques to include tumor shape features as part of the segmentation criteria. For the surgical planning components, additional controls and interactions with the simulated endoscopic camera and the ability to segment the colon or a selected region of the airway for a fixed-path navigation as a full virtual endoscopy tool will also be implemented. (Abstract shortened by UMI.