Diagnosis of dyslexia with low quality data with genetic fuzzy systems

AbstractFor diagnosing dyslexia in early childhood, children have to solve non-writing based graphical tests. Human experts score these tests, and decide whether the children require further consideration on the basis of their marks.Applying artificial intelligence techniques for automating this scoring is a complex task with multiple sources of uncertainty. On the one hand, there are conflicts, as different experts can assign different scores to the same set of answers. On the other hand, sometimes the experts are not completely confident with their decisions and doubt between different scores. The problem is aggravated because certain symptoms are compatible with more than one disorder. In case of doubt, the experts assign an interval-valued score to the test and ask for further information about the child before diagnosing him.Having said that, exploiting the information in uncertain datasets has been recently acknowledged as a new challenge in genetic fuzzy systems. In this paper we propose using a genetic cooperative–competitive algorithm for designing a linguistically understandable, rule-based classifier that can tackle this problem. This algorithm is part of a web-based, automated pre-screening application that can be used by the parents for detecting those symptoms that advise taking the children to a psychologist for an individual examination

Statistical reasoning with set-valued information : Ontic vs. epistemic views

International audienceIn information processing tasks, sets may have a conjunctive or a disjunctive reading. In the conjunctive reading, a set represents an object of interest and its elements are subparts of the object, forming a composite description. In the disjunctive reading, a set contains mutually exclusive elements and refers to the representation of incomplete knowledge. It does not model an actual object or quantity, but partial information about an underlying object or a precise quantity. This distinction between what we call ontic vs. epistemic sets remains valid for fuzzy sets, whose membership functions, in the disjunctive reading are possibility distributions, over deterministic or random values. This paper examines the impact of this distinction in statistics. We show its importance because there is a risk of misusing basic notions and tools, such as conditioning, distance between sets, variance, regression, etc. when data are set-valued. We discuss several examples where the ontic and epistemic points of view yield different approaches to these concepts

Innate talents: reality or myth?

Talents that selectively facilitate the acquisition of high levels of skill are said to be present in some children but not others. The evidence for this includes biological correlates of specific abilities, certain rare abilities in autistic savants, and the seemingly spontaneous emergence of exceptional abilities in young children, but there is also contrary evidence indicating an absence of early precursors of high skill levels. An analysis of positive and negative evidence and arguments suggests that differences in early experiences, preferences, opportunities, habits, training, and practice are the real determinants of excellence

Simplified models for multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty

Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.When facilitating decisions in which some performance evaluations are uncertain, a decision must be taken about how this uncertainty is to be modelled. This involves, in part, choosing an uncertainty format {a way of representing the possible outcomes that may occur. It seems reasonable to suggest {and is an aim of the thesis to show {that the choice of how uncertain quantities are represented will exert some influence over the decision-making process and the final decision taken. Many models exist for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) under conditions of uncertainty; perhaps the most well-known are those based on multi-attribute utility theory [MAUT, e.g. 147], which uses probability distributions to represent uncertainty. The great strength of MAUT is its axiomatic foundation, but even in its simplest form its practical implementation is formidable, and although there are several practical applications of MAUT reported in the literature [e.g. 39, 270] the number is small relative to its theoretical standing. Practical applications often use simpler decision models to aid decision making under uncertainty, based on uncertainty formats that `simplify' the full probability distributions (e.g. using expected values, variances, quantiles, etc). The aim of this thesis is to identify decision models associated with these `simplified' uncertainty formats and to evaluate the potential usefulness of these models as decision aids for problems involving uncertainty. It is hoped that doing so provides some guidance to practitioners about the types of models that may be used for uncertain decision making. The performance of simplified models is evaluated using three distinct methodological approaches {computer simulation, `laboratory' choice experiments, and real-world applications of decision analysis {in the hope of providing an integrated assessment. Chapter 3 generates a number of hypothetical decision problems by simulation, and within each problem simulates the hypothetical application of MAUT and various simplified decision models. The findings allow one to assess how the simplification of MAUT models might impact results, but do not provide any general conclusions because they are based on hypothetical decision problems and cannot evaluate practical issues like ease-of-use or the ability to generate insight that are critical to good decision aid. Chapter 4 addresses some of these limitations by reporting an experimental study consisting of choice tasks presented to numerate but unfacilitated participants. Tasks involved subjects selecting one from a set of five alternatives with uncertain attribute evaluations, with the format used to represent uncertainty and the number of objectives for the choice varied as part of the experimental design. The study is limited by the focus on descriptive rather than real prescriptive decision making, but has implications for prescriptive decision making practice in that natural tendencies are identified which may need to be overcome in the course of a prescriptive analysis

Forward uncertainty quantification with special emphasis on a Bayesian active learning perspective

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in its broadest sense aims at quantitatively studying all sources of uncertainty arising from both computational and real-world applications. Although many subtopics appear in the UQ field, there are typically two major types of UQ problems: forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. The present study focuses on the former, which involves assessing the effects of the input uncertainty in various forms on the output response of a computational model. In total, this thesis reports nine main developments in the context of forward uncertainty propagation, with special emphasis on a Bayesian active learning perspective. The first development is concerned with estimating the extreme value distribution and small first-passage probabilities of uncertain nonlinear structures under stochastic seismic excitations, where a moment-generating function-based mixture distribution approach (MGF-MD) is proposed. As the second development, a triple-engine parallel Bayesian global optimization (T-PBGO) method is presented for interval uncertainty propagation. The third contribution develops a parallel Bayesian quadrature optimization (PBQO) method for estimating the response expectation function, its variable importance and bounds when a computational model is subject to hybrid uncertainties in the form of random variables, parametric probability boxes (p-boxes) and interval models. In the fourth research, of interest is the failure probability function when the inputs of a performance function are characterized by parametric p-boxes. To do so, an active learning augmented probabilistic integration (ALAPI) method is proposed based on offering a partially Bayesian active learning perspective on failure probability estimation, as well as the use of high-dimensional model representation (HDMR) technique. Note that in this work we derive an upper-bound of the posterior variance of the failure probability, which bounds our epistemic uncertainty about the failure probability due to a kind of numerical uncertainty, i.e., discretization error. The fifth contribution further strengthens the previously developed active learning probabilistic integration (ALPI) method in two ways, i.e., enabling the use of parallel computing and enhancing the capability of assessing small failure probabilities. The resulting method is called parallel adaptive Bayesian quadrature (PABQ). The sixth research presents a principled Bayesian failure probability inference (BFPI) framework, where the posterior variance of the failure probability is derived (not in closed form). Besides, we also develop a parallel adaptive-Bayesian failure probability learning (PA-BFPI) method upon the BFPI framework. For the seventh development, we propose a partially Bayesian active learning line sampling (PBAL-LS) method for assessing extremely small failure probabilities, where a partially Bayesian active learning insight is offered for the classical LS method and an upper-bound for the posterior variance of the failure probability is deduced. Following the PBAL-LS method, the eighth contribution finally obtains the expression of the posterior variance of the failure probability in the LS framework, and a Bayesian active learning line sampling (BALLS) method is put forward. The ninth contribution provides another Bayesian active learning alternative, Bayesian active learning line sampling with log-normal process (BAL-LS-LP), to the traditional LS. In this method, the log-normal process prior, instead of a Gaussian process prior, is assumed for the beta function so as to account for the non-negativity constraint. Besides, the approximation error resulting from the root-finding procedure is also taken into consideration. In conclusion, this thesis presents a set of novel computational methods for forward UQ, especially from a Bayesian active learning perspective. The developed methods are expected to enrich our toolbox for forward UQ analysis, and the insights gained can stimulate further studies

Quantitative Techniques in Participatory Forest Management

Forest management has evolved from a mercantilist view to a multi-functional one that integrates economic, social, and ecological aspects. However, the issue of sustainability is not yet resolved. Quantitative Techniques in Participatory Forest Management brings together global research in three areas of application: inventory of the forest variables that determine the main environmental indices, description and design of new environmental indices, and the application of sustainability indices for regional implementations. All these quantitative techniques create the basis for the development of scientific methodologies of participatory sustainable forest management

Vitality of ice and bone: known uncertainty and awareness in change through Dolpo, Nepal, The

2012 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.At least one thousand years of caravanning yaks through the remote Himalayas have significantly shaped the practices of the Dolpo-pa, a culturally Tibetan population dwelling through the highlands of Midwestern Nepal. In turn, those practices have significantly affected how the Dolpo-pa conceptualize their world, the models by which they frame the experiences that effect those practices being directly and continuously synergized with the ecological realities of the existential present in persistently confirming, contesting or altering their awareness of those experiences. Physical reality at the biometabolic scale of ecological processes, therefore, which is as a rule perfunctorily and uncritically framed by observers descended from the specific histories of the European Enlightenment as the second-order reification labeled the environment, is schematized by the Dolpo-pa as something more like an "entanglement" in the uncertainty inherent to dwelling through that scale. As such, unlike the Cartesian divide elemental to the Western model that distorts reality by a cognitive trick of circular framing in reifying second-order conceptualizations and taking those reifications as first-order realities in the world, ethnographic evidence indicates that the Dolpo-pa culturally model themselves as unique and distinct as humans but not as separate from their domain of metabolic entanglement. The difference in these representations is significant, not only because it highlights the emergent cultural model of the Dolpo-pa after extended engagement within that unforgiving mountain environment but also because it suggests what is being lost with the increasing contravention of the Western model of development into that domain. The Dolpo-pa's increasing acquiescence to the distortions of that model is beginning to disentangle at very basic levels their unique awareness, which is especially evident in new forms of social fragmentation that have only since around 2005 begun to influence how individuals in Dolpo constellate schemas of intra-entanglement arrangements and extra-entanglement connotations there. Worryingly, such new, second-order constellations have been concurrent with an increasing decline in the reliability of deep-rooted cultural models of known ecological uncertainties to effectively frame recent experiences with rapidly changing phenological conditions as average weather patterns (i.e. climate) have steadily altered in recent years. The Dolpo-pa's cultural model of entanglement is unfortunately incapable of proficiently conceptualizing let alone adequately representing and responding to changes at the technometabolic scale of industrial processes, whence such phenological changes have originated but at which few among the Dolpo-pa have experience or proficiency negotiating. This thesis concludes with a brief discussion of how continued decline in the efficacy of the Dolpo-pa's cultural model of entanglement is progressively leading to greater existential dissonance, a concept introduced here in conclusion that qualitatively gauges how such disentanglement gives rise to an increased likelihood of physical loss of life or livelihood within experiences no less physically entangled at the scale of ecological processes

Artificial Superintelligence: Coordination & Strategy

Attention in the AI safety community has increasingly started to include strategic considerations of coordination between relevant actors in the field of AI and AI safety, in addition to the steadily growing work on the technical considerations of building safe AI systems. This shift has several reasons: Multiplier effects, pragmatism, and urgency. Given the benefits of coordination between those working towards safe superintelligence, this book surveys promising research in this emerging field regarding AI safety. On a meta-level, the hope is that this book can serve as a map to inform those working in the field of AI coordination about other promising efforts. While this book focuses on AI safety coordination, coordination is important to most other known existential risks (e.g., biotechnology risks), and future, human-made existential risks. Thus, while most coordination strategies in this book are specific to superintelligence, we hope that some insights yield “collateral benefits” for the reduction of other existential risks, by creating an overall civilizational framework that increases robustness, resiliency, and antifragility

Quantitative Techniques in Participatory Forest Management

Forest management has evolved from a mercantilist view to a multi-functional one that integrates economic, social, and ecological aspects. However, the issue of sustainability is not yet resolved. Quantitative Techniques in Participatory Forest Management brings together global research in three areas of application: inventory of the forest variables that determine the main environmental indices, description and design of new environmental indices, and the application of sustainability indices for regional implementations. All these quantitative techniques create the basis for the development of scientific methodologies of participatory sustainable forest management