Approximate Gaussian conjugacy: parametric recursive filtering under nonlinearity, multimodality, uncertainty, and constraint, and beyond

Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

A Survey of Recent Advances in Particle Filters and Remaining Challenges for Multitarget Tracking

[EN]We review some advances of the particle filtering (PF) algorithm that have been achieved in the last decade in the context of target tracking, with regard to either a single target or multiple targets in the presence of false or missing data. The first part of our review is on remarkable achievements that have been made for the single-target PF from several aspects including importance proposal, computing efficiency, particle degeneracy/impoverishment and constrained/multi-modal systems. The second part of our review is on analyzing the intractable challenges raised within the general multitarget (multi-sensor) tracking due to random target birth and termination, false alarm, misdetection, measurement-to-track (M2T) uncertainty and track uncertainty. The mainstream multitarget PF approaches consist of two main classes, one based on M2T association approaches and the other not such as the finite set statistics-based PF. In either case, significant challenges remain due to unknown tracking scenarios and integrated tracking management

Approximate Gaussian Conjugacy: Parametric Recursive Filtering Under Nonlinearity, Multimodal, Uncertainty, and Constraint, and Beyond

This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Frontiers of Information Technology & Electronic Engineering. The final authenticated version is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1631/FITEE.1700379Since the landmark work of R. E. Kalman in the 1960s, considerable efforts have been devoted to time series state space models for a large variety of dynamic estimation problems. In particular, parametric filters that seek analytical estimates based on a closed-form Markov–Bayes recursion, e.g., recursion from a Gaussian or Gaussian mixture (GM) prior to a Gaussian/GM posterior (termed ‘Gaussian conjugacy’ in this paper), form the backbone for a general time series filter design. Due to challenges arising from nonlinearity, multimodality (including target maneuver), intractable uncertainties (such as unknown inputs and/or non-Gaussian noises) and constraints (including circular quantities), etc., new theories, algorithms, and technologies have been developed continuously to maintain such a conjugacy, or to approximate it as close as possible. They had contributed in large part to the prospective developments of time series parametric filters in the last six decades. In this paper, we review the state of the art in distinctive categories and highlight some insights that may otherwise be easily overlooked. In particular, specific attention is paid to nonlinear systems with an informative observation, multimodal systems including Gaussian mixture posterior and maneuvers, and intractable unknown inputs and constraints, to fill some gaps in existing reviews and surveys. In addition, we provide some new thoughts on alternatives to the first-order Markov transition model and on filter evaluation with regard to computing complexity

Distributed implementations of the particle filter with performance bounds

The focus of the thesis is on developing distributed estimation algorithms for systems with nonlinear dynamics. Of particular interest are the agent or sensor networks (AN/SN) consisting of a large number of local processing and observation agents/nodes, which can communicate and cooperate with each other to perform a predefined task. Examples of such AN/SNs are distributed camera networks, acoustic sensor networks, networks of unmanned aerial vehicles, social networks, and robotic networks. Signal processing in the AN/SNs is traditionally centralized and developed for systems with linear dynamics. In the centralized architecture, the participating nodes communicate their observations (either directly or indirectly via a multi-hop relay) to a central processing unit, referred to as the fusion centre, which is responsible for performing the predefined task. For centralized systems with linear dynamics, the Kalman filter provides the optimal approach but suffers from several drawbacks, e.g., it is generally unscalable and also susceptible to failure in case the fusion centre breaks down. In general, no analytic solution can be determined for systems with nonlinear dynamics. Consequently, the conventional Kalman filter cannot be used and one has to rely on numerical approaches. In such cases, the sequential Monte Carlo approaches, also known as the particle filters, are widely used as approximates to the Bayesian estimators but mostly in the centralized configuration. Recently there has been a growing interest in distributed signal processing algorithms where: (i) There is no fusion centre; (ii) The local nodes do not have (require) global knowledge of the network topology, and; (iii) Each node exchanges data only within its local neighborhood. Distributed estimation have been widely explored for estimation/tracking problems in linear systems. Distributed particle filter implementations for nonlinear systems are still in their infancy and are the focus of this thesis. In the first part of this thesis, four different consensus-based distributed particle filter implementations are proposed. First, a constrained sufficient statistic based distributed implementation of the particle filter (CSS/DPF) is proposed for bearing-only tracking (BOT) and joint bearing/range tracking problems encountered in a number of applications including radar target tracking and robot localization. Although the number of parallel consensus runs in the CSS/DPF is lower compared to the existing distributed implementations of the particle filter, the CSS/DPF still requires a large number of iterations for the consensus runs to converge. To further reduce the consensus overhead, the CSS/DPF is extended to distributed implementation of the unscented particle filter, referred to as the CSS/DUPF, which require a limited number of consensus iterations. Both CSS/DPF and CSS/DUPF are specific to BOT and joint bearing/range tracking problems. Next, the unscented, consensus-based, distributed implementation of the particle filter (UCD /DPF) is proposed which is generalizable to systems with any dynamics. In terms of contributions, the UCD /DPF makes two important improvements to the existing distributed particle filter framework: (i) Unlike existing distributed implementations of the particle filter, the UCD /DPF uses all available global observations including the most recent ones in deriving the proposal distribution based on the distributed UKF, and; (ii) Computation of the global estimates from local estimates during the consensus step is based on an optimal fusion rule. Finally, a multi-rate consensus/fusion based framework for distributed implementation of the particle filter, referred to as the CF /DPF, is proposed. Separate fusion filters are designed to consistently assimilate the local filtering distributions into the global posterior by compensating for the common past information between neighbouring nodes. The CF /DPF offers two distinct advantages over its counterparts. First, the CF /DPF framework is suitable for scenarios where network connectivity is intermittent and consensus can not be reached between two consecutive observations. Second, the CF /DPF is not limited to the Gaussian approximation for the global posterior density. Numerical simulations verify the near-optimal performance of the proposed distributed particle filter implementations. The second half of the thesis focuses on the distributed computation of the posterior Cramer-Rao lower bounds (PCRLB). The current PCRLB approaches assume a centralized or hierarchical architecture. The exact expression for distributed computation of the PCRLB is not yet available and only an approximate expression has recently been derived. Motivated by the distributed adaptive resource management problems with the objective of dynamically activating a time-variant subset of observation nodes to optimize the network's performance, the thesis derives the exact expression, referred to as the dPCRLB, for computing the PCRLB for any AN/SN configured in a distributed fashion. The dPCRLB computational algorithms are derived for both the off-line conventional (non-conditional) PCRLB determined primarily from the state model, observation model, and prior knowledge of the initial state of the system, and the online conditional PCRLB expressed as a function of past history of the observations. Compared to the non-conditional dPCRLB, its conditional counterpart provides a more accurate representation of the estimator's performance and, consequently, a better criteria for sensor selection. The thesis then extends the dPCRLB algorithms to quantized observations. Particle filter realizations are used to compute these bounds numerically and quantify their performance for data fusion problems through Monte-Carlo simulations

Vehicle Tracking and Motion Estimation Based on Stereo Vision Sequences

In this dissertation, a novel approach for estimating trajectories of road vehicles such as cars, vans, or motorbikes, based on stereo image sequences is presented. Moving objects are detected and reliably tracked in real-time from within a moving car. The resulting information on the pose and motion state of other moving objects with respect to the own vehicle is an essential basis for future driver assistance and safety systems, e.g., for collision prediction. The focus of this contribution is on oncoming traffic, while most existing work in the literature addresses tracking the lead vehicle. The overall approach is generic and scalable to a variety of traffic scenes including inner city, country road, and highway scenarios. A considerable part of this thesis addresses oncoming traffic at urban intersections. The parameters to be estimated include the 3D position and orientation of an object relative to the ego-vehicle, as well as the object's shape, dimension, velocity, acceleration and the rotational velocity (yaw rate). The key idea is to derive these parameters from a set of tracked 3D points on the object's surface, which are registered to a time-consistent object coordinate system, by means of an extended Kalman filter. Combining the rigid 3D point cloud model with the dynamic model of a vehicle is one main contribution of this thesis. Vehicle tracking at intersections requires covering a wide range of different object dynamics, since vehicles can turn quickly. Three different approaches for tracking objects during highly dynamic turn maneuvers up to extreme maneuvers such as skidding are presented and compared. These approaches allow for an online adaptation of the filter parameter values, overcoming manual parameter tuning depending on the dynamics of the tracked object in the scene. This is the second main contribution. Further issues include the introduction of two initialization methods, a robust outlier handling, a probabilistic approach for assigning new points to a tracked object, as well as mid-level fusion of the vision-based approach with a radar sensor. The overall system is systematically evaluated both on simulated and real-world data. The experimental results show the proposed system is able to accurately estimate the object pose and motion parameters in a variety of challenging situations, including night scenes, quick turn maneuvers, and partial occlusions. The limits of the system are also carefully investigated.In dieser Dissertation wird ein Ansatz zur Trajektorienschätzung von Straßenfahrzeugen (PKW, Lieferwagen, Motorräder,...) anhand von Stereo-Bildfolgen vorgestellt. Bewegte Objekte werden in Echtzeit aus einem fahrenden Auto heraus automatisch detektiert, vermessen und deren Bewegungszustand relativ zum eigenen Fahrzeug zuverlässig bestimmt. Die gewonnenen Informationen liefern einen entscheidenden Grundstein für zukünftige Fahrerassistenz- und Sicherheitssysteme im Automobilbereich, beispielsweise zur Kollisionsprädiktion. Während der Großteil der existierenden Literatur das Detektieren und Verfolgen vorausfahrender Fahrzeuge in Autobahnszenarien adressiert, setzt diese Arbeit einen Schwerpunkt auf den Gegenverkehr, speziell an städtischen Kreuzungen. Der Ansatz ist jedoch grundsätzlich generisch und skalierbar für eine Vielzahl an Verkehrssituationen (Innenstadt, Landstraße, Autobahn). Die zu schätzenden Parameter beinhalten die räumliche Lage des anderen Fahrzeugs relativ zum eigenen Fahrzeug, die Objekt-Geschwindigkeit und -Längsbeschleunigung, sowie die Rotationsgeschwindigkeit (Gierrate) des beobachteten Objektes. Zusätzlich werden die Objektabmaße sowie die Objektform rekonstruiert. Die Grundidee ist es, diese Parameter anhand der Transformation von beobachteten 3D Punkten, welche eine ortsfeste Position auf der Objektoberfläche besitzen, mittels eines rekursiven Schätzers (Kalman Filter) zu bestimmen. Ein wesentlicher Beitrag dieser Arbeit liegt in der Kombination des Starrkörpermodells der Punktewolke mit einem Fahrzeugbewegungsmodell. An Kreuzungen können sehr unterschiedliche Dynamiken auftreten, von einer Geradeausfahrt mit konstanter Geschwindigkeit bis hin zum raschen Abbiegen. Um eine manuelle Parameteradaption abhängig von der jeweiligen Szene zu vermeiden, werden drei verschiedene Ansätze zur automatisierten Anpassung der Filterparameter an die vorliegende Situation vorgestellt und verglichen. Dies stellt den zweiten Hauptbeitrag der Arbeit dar. Weitere wichtige Beiträge sind zwei alternative Initialisierungsmethoden, eine robuste Ausreißerbehandlung, ein probabilistischer Ansatz zur Zuordnung neuer Objektpunkte, sowie die Fusion des bildbasierten Verfahrens mit einem Radar-Sensor. Das Gesamtsystem wird im Rahmen dieser Arbeit systematisch anhand von simulierten und realen Straßenverkehrsszenen evaluiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das vorgestellte Verfahren in der Lage ist, die unbekannten Objektparameter auch unter schwierigen Umgebungsbedingungen, beispielsweise bei Nacht, schnellen Abbiegemanövern oder unter Teilverdeckungen, sehr präzise zu schätzen. Die Grenzen des Systems werden ebenfalls sorgfältig untersucht

Optimal Collision Avoidance Trajectories for Unmanned/Remotely Piloted Aircraft

The post-911 environment has punctuated the force-multiplying capabilities that Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) provides combatant commanders at all echelons on the battlefield. Not only have unmanned aircraft systems made near-revolutionary impacts on the battlefield, their utility and proliferation in law enforcement, homeland security, humanitarian operations, and commercial applications have likewise increased at a rapid rate. As such, under the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Modernization and Reform Act of 2012, the United States Congress tasked the FAA to provide for the safe integration of civil unmanned aircraft systems into the national airspace system (NAS) as soon as practicable, but not later than September 30, 2015. However, a necessary entrance criterion to operate RPAs in the NAS is the ability to Sense and Avoid (SAA) both cooperative and noncooperative air traffic to attain a target level of safety as a traditional manned aircraft platform. The goal of this research effort is twofold: First, develop techniques for calculating optimal avoidance trajectories, and second, develop techniques for estimating an intruder aircraft\u27s trajectory in a stochastic environment. This dissertation describes the optimal control problem associated with SAA and uses a direct orthogonal collocation method to solve this problem and then analyzes these results for different collision avoidance scenarios

Distributed and Optimal State Estimation for Heterogeneous Dynamic Systems Operating Within a Strongly Connected Network

This dissertation is aimed at developing optimal and distributed state estimation algorithms for a team of cooperating nodes with the goal of improving accuracy through local sharing of relevant information. The nodes are assumed to be individually equipped with heterogeneous sensors for measuring a common target which can be dynamic and time-varying. Additionally, the nodes are assumed to be connected through a dynamically changing communication network modeled as a sequence of strongly connected digraphs allowing for local communication and distributed interactions. Using the data sharing afforded by the communication network, a weighted average state estimate consensus can be found across the neighboring nodes and then used to augment an optimized Kalman filter. Implementation of this consensus-based algorithm to nonlinear estimation approaches, like the Extended Kalman Filter, is also explored to broaden the range of applications. The presence of the state estimate consensus adds complexity to the covariance calculations by introducing cross-covariances among nodes. While these cross-covariances are found in previous work to be too difficult to handle (so they are either overestimated or ignored potentially leading to overly pessimistic or inconsistent estimators, respectively), their calculation through a distributed algorithm is one of the primary contributions of this research. The other contribution is to integrate distributed topology identification into cooperative Kalman filtering so time-varying topologies can be accommodated. These algorithms developed in this dissertation fully utilize the communication network to distribute the computational burden of maintaining these cross-covariances across the network so a truly distributed and optimized estimator can be achieved. The benefits of using these algorithms are highlighted in several examples involving the tracking of a dynamic mobile target utilizing nonlinear range and bearing measurements. Cooperative tracking by stationary and mobile nodes are shown to achieve large improvements in accuracy and robustness when compared to their decentralized counterparts

Estimation and stability of nonlinear control systems under intermittent information with applications to multi-agent robotics

This dissertation investigates the role of intermittent information in estimation and control problems and applies the obtained results to multi-agent tasks in robotics. First, we develop a stochastic hybrid model of mobile networks able to capture a large variety of heterogeneous multi-agent problems and phenomena. This model is applied to a case study where a heterogeneous mobile sensor network cooperatively detects and tracks mobile targets based on intermittent observations. When these observations form a satisfactory target trajectory, a mobile sensor is switched to the pursuit mode and deployed to capture the target. The cost of operating the sensors is determined from the geometric properties of the network, environment and probability of target detection. The above case study is motivated by the Marco Polo game played by children in swimming pools. Second, we develop adaptive sampling of targets positions in order to minimize energy consumption, while satisfying performance guarantees such as increased probability of detection over time, and no-escape conditions. A parsimonious predictor-corrector tracking filter, that uses geometrical properties of targets\u27 tracks to estimate their positions using imperfect and intermittent measurements, is presented. It is shown that this filter requires substantially less information and processing power than the Unscented Kalman Filter and Sampling Importance Resampling Particle Filter, while providing comparable estimation performance in the presence of intermittent information. Third, we investigate stability of nonlinear control systems under intermittent information. We replace the traditional periodic paradigm, where the up-to-date information is transmitted and control laws are executed in a periodic fashion, with the event-triggered paradigm. Building on the small gain theorem, we develop input-output triggered control algorithms yielding stable closed-loop systems. In other words, based on the currently available (but outdated) measurements of the outputs and external inputs of a plant, a mechanism triggering when to obtain new measurements and update the control inputs is provided. Depending on the noise environment, the developed algorithm yields stable, asymptotically stable, and Lp-stable (with bias) closed-loop systems. Control loops are modeled as interconnections of hybrid systems for which novel results on Lp-stability are presented. Prediction of a triggering event is achieved by employing Lp-gains over a finite horizon in the small gain theorem. By resorting to convex programming, a method to compute Lp-gains over a finite horizon is devised. Next, we investigate optimal intermittent feedback for nonlinear control systems. Using the currently available measurements from a plant, we develop a methodology that outputs when to update the control law with new measurements such that a given cost function is minimized. Our cost function captures trade-offs between the performance and energy consumption of the control system. The optimization problem is formulated as a Dynamic Programming problem, and Approximate Dynamic Programming is employed to solve it. Instead of advocating a particular approximation architecture for Approximate Dynamic Programming, we formulate properties that successful approximation architectures satisfy. In addition, we consider problems with partially observable states, and propose Particle Filtering to deal with partially observable states and intermittent feedback. Finally, we investigate a decentralized output synchronization problem of heterogeneous linear systems. We develop a self-triggered output broadcasting policy for the interconnected systems. Broadcasting time instants adapt to the current communication topology. For a fixed topology, our broadcasting policy yields global exponential output synchronization, and Lp-stable output synchronization in the presence of disturbances. Employing a converse Lyapunov theorem for impulsive systems, we provide an average dwell time condition that yields disturbance-to-state stable output synchronization in case of switching topology. Our approach is applicable to directed and unbalanced communication topologies.\u2