On computational tools for Bayesian data analysis

While Robert and Rousseau (2010) addressed the foundational aspects of Bayesian analysis, the current chapter details its practical aspects through a review of the computational methods available for approximating Bayesian procedures. Recent innovations like Monte Carlo Markov chain, sequential Monte Carlo methods and more recently Approximate Bayesian Computation techniques have considerably increased the potential for Bayesian applications and they have also opened new avenues for Bayesian inference, first and foremost Bayesian model choice.Comment: This is a chapter for the book "Bayesian Methods and Expert Elicitation" edited by Klaus Bocker, 23 pages, 9 figure

Designing a fruit identification algorithm in orchard conditions to develop robots using video processing and majority voting based on hybrid artificial neural network

The first step in identifying fruits on trees is to develop garden robots for different purposes such as fruit harvesting and spatial specific spraying. Due to the natural conditions of the fruit orchards and the unevenness of the various objects throughout it, usage of the controlled conditions is very difficult. As a result, these operations should be performed in natural conditions, both in light and in the background. Due to the dependency of other garden robot operations on the fruit identification stage, this step must be performed precisely. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to design an identification algorithm in orchard conditions using a combination of video processing and majority voting based on different hybrid artificial neural networks. The different steps of designing this algorithm were: (1) Recording video of different plum orchards at different light intensities; (2) converting the videos produced into its frames; (3) extracting different color properties from pixels; (4) selecting effective properties from color extraction properties using hybrid artificial neural network-harmony search (ANN-HS); and (5) classification using majority voting based on three classifiers of artificial neural network-bees algorithm (ANN-BA), artificial neural network-biogeography-based optimization (ANN-BBO), and artificial neural network-firefly algorithm (ANN-FA). Most effective features selected by the hybrid ANN-HS consisted of the third channel in hue saturation lightness (HSL) color space, the second channel in lightness chroma hue (LCH) color space, the first channel in L*a*b* color space, and the first channel in hue saturation intensity (HSI). The results showed that the accuracy of the majority voting method in the best execution and in 500 executions was 98.01% and 97.20%, respectively. Based on different performance evaluation criteria of the classifiers, it was found that the majority voting method had a higher performance.European Union (EU) under Erasmus+ project entitled “Fostering Internationalization in Agricultural Engineering in Iran and Russia” [FARmER] with grant number 585596-EPP-1-2017-1-DE-EPPKA2-CBHE-JPinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Tuning target selection algorithms to improve galaxy redshift estimates

We showcase machine learning (ML) inspired target selection algorithms to determine which of all potential targets should be selected first for spectroscopic follow up. Efficient target selection can improve the ML redshift uncertainties as calculated on an independent sample, while requiring less targets to be observed. We compare the ML targeting algorithms with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) target order, and with a random targeting algorithm. The ML inspired algorithms are constructed iteratively by estimating which of the remaining target galaxies will be most difficult for the machine learning methods to accurately estimate redshifts using the previously observed data. This is performed by predicting the expected redshift error and redshift offset (or bias) of all of the remaining target galaxies. We find that the predicted values of bias and error are accurate to better than 10-30% of the true values, even with only limited training sample sizes. We construct a hypothetical follow-up survey and find that some of the ML targeting algorithms are able to obtain the same redshift predictive power with 2-3 times less observing time, as compared to that of the SDSS, or random, target selection algorithms. The reduction in the required follow up resources could allow for a change to the follow-up strategy, for example by obtaining deeper spectroscopy, which could improve ML redshift estimates for deeper test data.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, updated to match MNRAS accepted version. Minor text changes, results unchange

Boosting Bayesian Parameter Inference of Nonlinear Stochastic Differential Equation Models by Hamiltonian Scale Separation

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In many situations, the dominant sources of uncertainty must be included into the model, for making reliable predictions. This naturally leads to stochastic models. Stochastic models render parameter inference much harder, as the aim then is to find a distribution of likely parameter values. In Bayesian statistics, which is a consistent framework for data-driven learning, this so-called posterior distribution can be used to make probabilistic predictions. We propose a novel, exact and very efficient approach for generating posterior parameter distributions, for stochastic differential equation models calibrated to measured time-series. The algorithm is inspired by re-interpreting the posterior distribution as a statistical mechanics partition function of an object akin to a polymer, where the measurements are mapped on heavier beads compared to those of the simulated data. To arrive at distribution samples, we employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo approach combined with a multiple time-scale integration. A separation of time scales naturally arises if either the number of measurement points or the number of simulation points becomes large. Furthermore, at least for 1D problems, we can decouple the harmonic modes between measurement points and solve the fastest part of their dynamics analytically. Our approach is applicable to a wide range of inference problems and is highly parallelizable.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figure

Rapid Online Analysis of Local Feature Detectors and Their Complementarity

A vision system that can assess its own performance and take appropriate actions online to maximize its effectiveness would be a step towards achieving the long-cherished goal of imitating humans. This paper proposes a method for performing an online performance analysis of local feature detectors, the primary stage of many practical vision systems. It advocates the spatial distribution of local image features as a good performance indicator and presents a metric that can be calculated rapidly, concurs with human visual assessments and is complementary to existing offline measures such as repeatability. The metric is shown to provide a measure of complementarity for combinations of detectors, correctly reflecting the underlying principles of individual detectors. Qualitative results on well-established datasets for several state-of-the-art detectors are presented based on the proposed measure. Using a hypothesis testing approach and a newly-acquired, larger image database, statistically-significant performance differences are identified. Different detector pairs and triplets are examined quantitatively and the results provide a useful guideline for combining detectors in applications that require a reasonable spatial distribution of image features. A principled framework for combining feature detectors in these applications is also presented. Timing results reveal the potential of the metric for online applications. © 2013 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Detecting compact galactic binaries using a hybrid swarm-based algorithm

Compact binaries in our galaxy are expected to be one of the main sources of gravitational waves for the future eLISA mission. During the mission lifetime, many thousands of galactic binaries should be individually resolved. However, the identification of the sources, and the extraction of the signal parameters in a noisy environment are real challenges for data analysis. So far, stochastic searches have proven to be the most successful for this problem. In this work we present the first application of a swarm-based algorithm combining Particle Swarm Optimization and Differential Evolution. These algorithms have been shown to converge faster to global solutions on complicated likelihood surfaces than other stochastic methods. We first demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm for the case of a single binary in a 1 mHz search bandwidth. This interesting problem gave the algorithm plenty of opportunity to fail, as it can be easier to find a strong noise peak rather than the signal itself. After a successful detection of a fictitious low-frequency source, as well as the verification binary RXJ0806.3+1527, we then applied the algorithm to the detection of multiple binaries, over different search bandwidths, in the cases of low and mild source confusion. In all cases, we show that we can successfully identify the sources, and recover the true parameters within a 99\% credible interval.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure

Multivariate calibration of a water and energy balance model in the spectral domain

The objective of this paper is to explore the possibility of using multiple variables in the calibration of hydrologic models in the spectral domain. A simple water and energy balance model was used, combined with observations of the energy balance and the soil moisture profile. The correlation functions of the model outputs and the observations for the different variables have been calculated after the removal of the diurnal cycle of the energy balance variables. These were transformed to the frequency domain to obtain spectral density functions, which were combined in the calibration algorithm. It has been found that it is best to use the square root of the spectral densities in the parameter estimation. Under these conditions, spectral calibration performs almost equally as well as time domain calibration using least squares differences between observed and simulated time series. Incorporation of the spectral coefficients of the cross-correlation functions did not improve the results of the calibration. Calibration on the correlation functions in the time domain led to worse model performance. When the meteorological forcing and model calibration data are not overlapping in time, spectral calibration has been shown to lead to an acceptable model performance. Overall, the results in this paper suggest that, in case of data scarcity, multivariate spectral calibration can be an attractive tool to estimate model parameters