Detecting Changes in a Distillation Column by Using a Sequential Probability Ratio Test

AbstractIn chemical plants, a reliable detection of anomalies is important for a safe operation. To this end, a fault detection (FD) method of abnormal operations applicable to a chemical process is presented in this paper. This method couples an Artificial Neural Network-Multi-Layer Perceptron (ANN-MLP) with a statistical module based on the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) of Wald, for the analysis of the process residuals. To detect a change, this combination uses the mean and the standard deviation of the residual noise obtained from applying a NARX (Nonlinear Auto-Regressive with eXogenous input) model. The FD effectiveness is tested under real abnormal circumstances on a real plant as a distillation column. The experimental results obtained show the relevance of this method for the fast detection and the monitoring of this chemical process

Towards Universality in Automatic Freeway Incident Detection: A Calibration-Free Algorithm

Freeway automatic incident detection (AID) algorithms have been extensively investigated over the last forty years. A myriad of algorithms, covering a broad range of types in terms of complexity, data requirements, and efficiency have been published in the literature. However, a 2007 nationwide survey concluded that the implementation of AID algorithms in traffic management centers is still very limited. There are a few reasons for this discrepancy between the state-of-the-art and the state-of the-practice. First, current AID algorithms yield unacceptably high rates of false alarm when implemented in real-world. Second, the complexities involved in algorithm calibration require levels of efforts and diligence that may overburden Traffic Management Center (TMC) personnel. The main objective of this research was to develop a self-learning, transferable algorithm that requires no calibration. The dynamic thresholds of the proposed algorithm are based on historical data of traffic, thus accounting for variations of traffic throughout the day. Therefore, the novel approach is able to recognize recurrent congestion, thus greatly reducing the incidence of false alarms. In addition, the proposed method requires no human-intervention, which certainly encourages its implementation. The presented model was evaluated in a newly developed incident database, which contained forty incidents. The model performed better than the California, Minnesota, and Standard Normal Deviation algorithms

An Investigation into the Performance Evaluation of Connected Vehicle Applications: From Real-World Experiment to Parallel Simulation Paradigm

A novel system was developed that provides drivers lane merge advisories, using vehicle trajectories obtained through Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC). It was successfully tested on a freeway using three vehicles, then targeted for further testing, via simulation. The failure of contemporary simulators to effectively model large, complex urban transportation networks then motivated further research into distributed and parallel traffic simulation. An architecture for a closed-loop, parallel simulator was devised, using a new algorithm that accounts for boundary nodes, traffic signals, intersections, road lengths, traffic density, and counts of lanes; it partitions a sample, Tennessee road network more efficiently than tools like METIS, which increase interprocess communications (IPC) overhead by partitioning more transportation corridors. The simulator uses logarithmic accumulation to synchronize parallel simulations, further reducing IPC. Analyses suggest this eliminates up to one-third of IPC overhead incurred by a linear accumulation model

Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics

There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework. The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers’ decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers’ choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space–time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamic

Developing Sampling Strategies and Predicting Freeway Travel Time Using Bluetooth Data

Accurate, reliable, and timely travel time is critical to monitor transportation system performance and assist motorists with trip-making decisions. Travel time is estimated using the data from various sources like cellular technology, automatic vehicle identification (AVI) systems. Irrespective of sources, data have characteristics in terms of accuracy and reliability shaped by the sampling rate along with other factors. As a probe based AVI technology, Bluetooth data is not immune to the sampling issue that directly affects the accuracy and reliability of the information it provides. The sampling rate can be affected by the stochastic nature of traffic state varying by time of day. A single outlier may sharply affect the travel time. This study brings attention to several crucial issues - intervals with no sample, minimum sample size and stochastic property of travel time, that play pivotal role on the accuracy and reliability of information along with its time coverage. It also demonstrates noble approaches and thus, represents a guideline for researchers and practitioner to select an appropriate interval for sample accumulation flexibly by set up the threshold guided by the nature of individual researches’ problems and preferences. After selection of an appropriate interval for sample accumulation, the next step is to estimate travel time. Travel time can be estimated either based on arrival time or based on departure time of corresponding vehicle. Considering the estimation procedure, these two are defined as arrival time based travel time (ATT) and departure time based travel time (DTT) respectively. A simple data processing algorithm, which processed more than a hundred million records reliably and efficiently, was introduced to ensure accurate estimation of travel time. Since outlier filtering plays a pivotal role in estimation accuracy, a simplified technique has proposed to filter outliers after examining several well-established outlier-filtering algorithms. In general, time of arrival is utilized to estimate overall travel time; however, travel time based on departure time (DTT) is more accurate and thus, DTT should be treated as true travel time. Accurate prediction is an integral component of calculating DTT, as real-time DTT is not available. The performances of Kalman filter (KF) were compared to corresponding modeling techniques; both link and corridor based, and concluded that the KF method offers superior prediction accuracy in link-based model. This research also examined the effect of different noise assumptions and found that the steady noise computed from full-dataset leads to the most accurate prediction. Travel time prediction had a 4.53% mean absolute percentage of error due to the effective application of KF

Exploring the Potentials of Using Crowdsourced Waze Data in Traffic Management: Characteristics and Reliability

Real-time traffic information is essential to a variety of practical applications. To obtain traffic data, various traffic monitoring devices, such as loop detectors, infrastructure-mounted sensors, and cameras, have been installed on road networks. However, transportation agencies have sought alternative data sources to monitor traffic, due to the high installation and maintenance cost of conventional data collecting methods. Recently, crowdsourced traffic data has become available and is widely considered to have great potential in intelligent transportation systems. Waze is a crowdsourcing traffic application that enables users to share real-time traffic information. Waze data, including passively collected speed data and actively reported user reports, is valuable for traffic management but has not been explored or evaluated extensively. This dissertation evaluated and explored the potential of Waze data in traffic management from different perspectives. First, this dissertation evaluated and explored Waze traffic speed to understand the characteristics and reliability of Waze traffic speed data. Second, a calibration-free incident detection algorithm with traffic speed data on freeways was proposed, and the results were compared with other commonly used algorithms. Third, a spatial and temporal quality analysis of Waze accident reports to better understand their quality and accuracy was performed. Last, the dissertation proposed a network-based clustering algorithm to identify secondary crashes with Waze user reports, and a case study was performed to demonstrate the applicability of our method and the potential of crowdsourced Waze user reports