Accept & Reject Statement-Based Uncertainty Models

We develop a framework for modelling and reasoning with uncertainty based on accept and reject statements about gambles. It generalises the frameworks found in the literature based on statements of acceptability, desirability, or favourability and clarifies their relative position. Next to the statement-based formulation, we also provide a translation in terms of preference relations, discuss---as a bridge to existing frameworks---a number of simplified variants, and show the relationship with prevision-based uncertainty models. We furthermore provide an application to modelling symmetry judgements.Comment: 35 pages, 17 figure

Reasoning with imprecise probabilities

This special issue of the International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (IJAR) grew out of the 4th International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications (ISIPTA’05), held in Pittsburgh, USA, in July 2005 (http://www.sipta.org/isipta05). The symposium was organized by Teddy Seidenfeld, Robert Nau, and Fabio G. Cozman, and brought together researchers from various branches interested in imprecision in probabilities. Research in artificial intelligence, economics, engineering, psychology, philosophy, statistics, and other fields was presented at the meeting, in a lively atmosphere that fostered communication and debate. Invited talks by Isaac Levi and Arthur Dempster enlightened the attendants, while tutorials by Gert de Cooman, Paolo Vicig, and Kurt Weichselberger introduced basic (and advanced) concepts; finally, the symposium ended with a workshop on financial risk assessment, organized by Teddy Seidenfeld

Constructing imprecise probabilities using arguments as evidence

This paper addresses the problem of constructing subjective imprecise probabilities using qualitative and conflicting pieces of information (arguments) as evidence.We propose formulae for the calculus of imprecise probabilities and show that the probabilities obtained reflect the indeterminacy of the subject, faithfully quantify the support offered by the arguments and constitute previsions that are mathematically coherent in the sense of [Walley, 1991]

Exchangeability and sets of desirable gambles

Sets of desirable gambles constitute a quite general type of uncertainty model with an interesting geometrical interpretation. We give a general discussion of such models and their rationality criteria. We study exchangeability assessments for them, and prove counterparts of de Finetti's finite and infinite representation theorems. We show that the finite representation in terms of count vectors has a very nice geometrical interpretation, and that the representation in terms of frequency vectors is tied up with multivariate Bernstein (basis) polynomials. We also lay bare the relationships between the representations of updated exchangeable models, and discuss conservative inference (natural extension) under exchangeability and the extension of exchangeable sequences.Comment: 40 page

ISIPTA'07: Proceedings of the Fifth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications

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Argumentation as a practical foundation for decision theory

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