Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.Energy Access, Power System Planning, Sub-Saharan Africa

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Approaches to Energy Demand-Side Response: A Systematic Review

Recent years have seen an increasing interest in Demand Response (DR) as a means to provide flexibility, and hence improve the reliability of energy systems in a cost-effective way. Yet, the high complexity of the tasks associated with DR, combined with their use of large-scale data and the frequent need for near real-time de-cisions, means that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) — a branch of AI — have recently emerged as key technologies for enabling demand-side response. AI methods can be used to tackle various challenges, ranging from selecting the optimal set of consumers to respond, learning their attributes and pref-erences, dynamic pricing, scheduling and control of devices, learning how to incentivise participants in the DR schemes and how to reward them in a fair and economically efficient way. This work provides an overview of AI methods utilised for DR applications, based on a systematic review of over 160 papers, 40 companies and commercial initiatives, and 21 large-scale projects. The papers are classified with regards to both the AI/ML algorithm(s) used and the application area in energy DR. Next, commercial initiatives are presented (including both start-ups and established companies) and large-scale innovation projects, where AI methods have been used for energy DR. The paper concludes with a discussion of advantages and potential limitations of reviewed AI techniques for different DR tasks, and outlines directions for future research in this fast-growing area

Electrical load forecasting models: a critical systematic review

Electricity forecasting is an essential component of smart grid, which has attracted increasing academic interest. Forecasting enables informed and efficient responses for electricity demand. However, various forecasting models exist making it difficult for inexperienced researchers to make an informed model selection. This paper presents a systematic review of forecasting models with the main purpose of identifying which model is best suited for a particular case or scenario. Over 113 different case studies reported across 41 academic papers have been used for the comparison. The timeframe, inputs, outputs, scale, data sample size, error type and value have been taken into account as criteria for the comparison. The review reveals that despite the relative simplicity of all reviewed models, the regression and/or multiple regression are still widely used and efficient for long and very long-term prediction. For short and very short-term prediction, machine-learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and time series analysis (including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)) are favoured. The most widely employed independent variables are the building and occupancy characteristics and environmental data, especially in the machine learning models. In many cases, time series analysis and regressions rely on electricity historical data only, without the introduction of exogenous variables. Overall, if the singularity of the different cases made the comparison difficult, some trends are clearly identifiable. Considering the large amount of use cases studied, the meta-analysis of the references led to the identification of best practices within the expert community in relation to forecasting use for electricity consumption and power load prediction. Therefore, from the findings of the meta-analysis, a taxonomy has been defined in order to help researchers make an informed decision and choose the right model for their problem (long or short term, low or high resolution, building to country level)

Recent techniques used in home energy management systems: a review

Power systems are going through a transition period. Consumers want more active participation in electric system management, namely assuming the role of producers–consumers, prosumers in short. The prosumers’ energy production is heavily based on renewable energy sources, which, besides recognized environmental benefits, entails energy management challenges. For instance, energy consumption of appliances in a home can lead to misleading patterns. Another challenge is related to energy costs since inefficient systems or unbalanced energy control may represent economic loss to the prosumer. The so-called home energy management systems (HEMS) emerge as a solution. When well-designed HEMS allow prosumers to reach higher levels of energy management, this ensures optimal management of assets and appliances. This paper aims to present a comprehensive systematic review of the literature on optimization techniques recently used in the development of HEMS, also taking into account the key factors that can influence the development of HEMS at a technical and computational level. The systematic review covers the period 2018–2021. As a result of the review, the major developments in the field of HEMS in recent years are presented in an integrated manner. In addition, the techniques are divided into four broad categories: traditional techniques, model predictive control, heuristics and metaheuristics, and other techniques.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Interval Load Forecasting for Individual Households in the Presence of Electric Vehicle Charging

The transition to Electric Vehicles (EV) in place of traditional internal combustion engines is increasing societal demand for electricity. The ability to integrate the additional demand from EV charging into forecasting electricity demand is critical for maintaining the reliability of electricity generation and distribution. Load forecasting studies typically exclude households with home EV charging, focusing on offices, schools, and public charging stations. Moreover, they provide point forecasts which do not offer information about prediction uncertainty. Consequently, this paper proposes the Long Short-Term Memory Bayesian Neural Networks (LSTM-BNNs) for household load forecasting in presence of EV charging. The approach takes advantage of the LSTM model to capture the time dependencies and uses the dropout layer with Bayesian inference to generate prediction intervals. Results show that the proposed LSTM-BNNs achieve accuracy similar to point forecasts with the advantage of prediction intervals. Moreover, the impact of lockdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic on the load forecasting model is examined, and the analysis shows that there is no major change in the model performance as, for the considered households, the randomness of the EV charging outweighs the change due to pandemic

Optimal Home Energy Management System for Committed Power Exchange Considering Renewable Generations

This thesis addresses the complexity of SH operation and local renewable resources optimum sizing. The effect of different criteria and components of SH on the size of renewable resources and cost of electricity is investigated. Operation of SH with the optimum size of renewable resources is evaluated to study SH annual cost. The effectiveness of SH with committed exchange power functionality is studied for minimizing cost while responding to DR programs

Hierarchical and Distributed Architecture for Large-Scale Residential Demand Response Management

The implementation of smart grid brings several challenges to the power system. The ‘prosumer’ concept, proposed by the smart grid, allows small-scale ‘nano-grids’ to buy or sell electric power at their own discretion. One major problem in integrating prosumers is that they tend to follow the same pattern of generation and consumption, which is un-optimal for grid operations. One tool to optimize grid operations is demand response (DR). DR attempts to optimize by altering the power consumption patterns. DR is an integrated tool of the smart grid. FERC Order No. 2222 caters for distributed energy resources, including demand response resources, in participating in energy markets. However, DR contribution of an average residential energy consumer is insignificant. Most residential energy consumers pay a flat price for their energy usage and the established market for residential DR is quite small. In this dissertation, a survey is carried out on the current state-of-the-art in DR research and generalizations of the mathematical models are made. Additionally, a service provider model is developed along with an incentive program and user interfaces (UI). These UIs and incentive program are designed to be attractive and easily comprehended by a large customer base. Furthermore, customer behavior models are developed that characterize the potential customer base, allowing a demand response aggregator to understand and quantify the quality of the customer. Optimization methods for DR management with various characteristics are also explored in this dissertation. Moreover, A scalable demand response management framework that can incorporate millions of participants in the program is introduced. The framework is based on a hierarchical architecture. To improve DR management, hierarchical load forecasting method is studied. Specifically, optimal combination method for hierarchical forecast reconciliation is applied to the DR program. It is shown that the optimal combination for reconciliation of hierarchical predictions could reduce the stress levels of the consumer close to the ideal values for all scenarios

Multi-objective energy storage power dispatching using plug-in vehicles in a smart-microgrid

This paper describes a multi-objective power dispatching problem that uses Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) as storage units. We formulate the energy storage planning as a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) problem, respecting PEV requirements, minimizing three different objectives and analyzing three different criteria. Two novel cost-to-variability indicators, based on Sharpe Ratio, are introduced for analyzing the volatility of the energy storage schedules. By adding these additional criteria, energy storage planning is optimized seeking to minimize the following: total Microgrid (MG) costs; PEVs batteries usage; maximum peak load; difference between extreme scenarios and two Sharpe Ratio indices. Different scenarios are considered, which are generated with the use of probabilistic forecasting, since prediction involves inherent uncertainty. Energy storage planning scenarios are scheduled according to information provided by lower and upper bounds extracted from probabilistic forecasts. A MicroGrid (MG) scenario composed of two renewable energy resources, a wind energy turbine and photovoltaic cells, a residential MG user and different PEVs is analyzed. Candidate non-dominated solutions are searched from the pool of feasible solutions obtained during different Branch and Bound optimizations. Pareto fronts are discussed and analyzed for different energy storage scenarios. Perhaps the most important conclusion from this study is that schedules that minimize the total system cost may increase maximum peak load and its volatility over different possible scenarios, therefore may be less robust

Context-Aware Clustering and the Optimized Whale Optimization Algorithm: An Effective Predictive Model for the Smart Grid

For customers to participate in key peak pricing, period-of-use fees, and individualized responsiveness to demand programmes taken from multi-dimensional data flows, energy use projection and analysis must be done well. However, it is a difficult study topic to ascertain the knowledge of use of electricity as recorded in the electricity records' Multi-Dimensional Data Streams (MDDS). Context-Aware Clustering (CAC) and the Optimized Whale Optimization Algorithm were suggested by researchers as a fresh power usage knowledge finding model from the multi-dimensional data streams (MDDS) to resolve issue (OWOA). The proposed CAC-OWOA framework first performs the data cleaning to handle the noisy and null elements. The predictive features are extracted from the novel context-aware group formation algorithm using the statistical context parameters from the pre-processed MDDS electricity logs. To perform the energy consumption prediction, researchers have proposed the novel Artificial Neural Network (ANN) predictive algorithm using the bio-inspired optimization algorithm called OWOA. The OWOA is the modified algorithm of the existing WOA to overcome the problems of slow convergence speed and easily falling into the local optimal solutions. The ANN training method is used in conjunction with the suggested bio-inspired OWOA algorithm to lower error rates and boost overall prediction accuracy. The efficiency of the CAC-OWOA framework is evaluated using the publicly available smart grid electricity consumption logs. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the CAC-OWOA framework in terms of forecasting accuracy, precision, recall, and duration when compared to underlying approaches