The vulnerability of Pyrenean ski resorts to climate-induced changes in the snowpack

Winter tourism is the main source of income and the driving force of local development in many mountain areas. However, in recent years, the industry has been identified as being extremely vulnerable to future climate change. Although the Pyrenees has the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps, there are few detailed climate change vulnerability assessments on the ski resorts based in this region. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of the Pyrenean ski resorts to projected changes in the snowpack under various future climate scenarios. In addition, the study analyzes the sustainability of the snowmaking systems to offset the climate variability of natural snow cover. On average, the study predicts a shorter ski-season length, especially in low-altitude ski resorts in a moderate climate change scenario and for all ski resorts in a more intensive climate change scenario. However, a significant regional variability has been identified for the projected impacts at very short geographical distances within the studied area. Moreover, this paper shows that snowmaking cannot completely solve the problem for all ski resorts in the Pyrenees, as the measure can only act as a robust adaptation strategy in the region provided climate change is limited to +2 °C snowmaking.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

Climate services for tourism: An applied methodology for user engagement and co-creation in European destinations

Abstract This article presents an exploratory methodology to co-create climate services for the tourism sector together with local stakeholders, emphasizing focus groups as an essential step for obtaining relevant data throughout the process. The article describes the user engagement for defining the optimal conditions for tourism in four different types of destinations in terms of tourist specialisation in Spain (Jacetania Council in the Aragon Pyrenees, the city of Calvia on the island of Majorca; the city of Barcelona and the Barcelona Coast) and Italy (Sila National Park) This methodology involves a sequence of steps to extract and validate such information through engagement, with destination stakeholders along the value chain (from accommodation managers to destination planners as well as final users). The process facilitates the design of numerical indices based on the information collected (from qualitative to quantitative data). Our methodology is suitable for application in other contexts and tourism activities where the subjective perception of weather and climate plays a role, as well as in other sectors

A Spatial Agent-based Model for Volcanic Evacuation of Mt. Merapi

Natural disasters, especially volcanic eruptions, are hazardous events that frequently happen in Indonesia. As a country within the “Ring of Fire”, Indonesia has hundreds of volcanoes and Mount Merapi is the most active. Historical studies of this volcano have revealed that there is potential for a major eruption in the future. Therefore, long-term disaster management is needed. To support the disaster management, physical and socially-based research has been carried out, but there is still a gap in the development of evacuation models. This modelling is necessary to evaluate the possibility of unexpected problems in the evacuation process since the hazard occurrences and the population behaviour are uncertain. The aim of this research was to develop an agent-based model (ABM) of volcanic evacuation to improve the effectiveness of evacuation management in Merapi. Besides the potential use of the results locally in Merapi, the development process of this evacuation model contributes by advancing the knowledge of ABM development for large-scale evacuation simulation in other contexts. Its novelty lies in (1) integrating a hazard model derived from historical records of the spatial impact of eruptions, (2) formulating and validating an individual evacuation decision model in ABM based on various interrelated factors revealed from literature reviews and surveys that enable the modelling of reluctant people, (3) formulating the integration of multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) in ABM to model a spatio-temporal dynamic model of risk (STDMR) that enables representation of the changing of risk as a consequence of changing hazard level, hazard extent and movement of people, and (4) formulating an evacuation staging method based on MCE using geographic and demographic criteria. The volcanic evacuation model represents the relationships between physical and human agents, consisting of the volcano, stakeholders, the population at risk and the environment. The experimentation of several evacuation scenarios in Merapi using the developed ABM of evacuation shows that simultaneous strategy is superior in reducing the risk, but the staged scenario is the most effective in minimising the potential of road traffic problems during evacuation events in Merapi. Staged evacuation can be a good option when there is enough time to evacuate. However, if the evacuation time is limited, the simultaneous strategy is better to be implemented. Appropriate traffic management should be prepared to avoid traffic problems when the second option is chosen

A slippery slope : Gen Z’s motivation for ski tourism

Winter tourism, or tourism to destinations with cold weather and snow, has been popular amongst tourists for generations. There are several destinations in the world that possess these criteria, however, past research shows that due to climate change and demographic change this number is declining. Specifically, destinations with lower altitude, and thus higher probability of being affected by warmer weather, are noticing a decline in number of visitors per year. Under the category winter tourism is ski tourism, including both cross-country skiing and downhill or alpine skiing. This dissertation focuses mainly on ski tourism and uncovering the motivations behind ski tourists, as well as exploring the possibility of lower motivations for ski tourism in generation Z. The results showed that the opposite is true, generation Z has a higher ski tourism travel motivation than generations Y and X. This discovery can give operators in the ski industry a prediction of future demand, as this challenges the previously assumed decrease due to demographic change. As for climate change, this study reveals a low consideration of climate change impact in consumers when travelling. This indicates a higher responsibility for the tourism industry to promote and ensure sustainable travel, as well as a need for better education when it comes to the environmental impact of travel.O turismo de Inverno, ou turismo para destinos com tempo frio e neve, é um tipo de turismo popular há várias gerações. Existem vários destinos no mundo que possuem estas características, no entanto os estudos anteriores mostram que, devido às alterações climáticas e demográficas o número de turistas tem vindo a diminuir. Especificamente, em destinos com menor altitude e, por conseguinte, com maior probabilidade de serem afetados por um clima mais quente, registam um declínio anual no número de visitantes. Na categoria de turismo de Inverno encontra-se o turismo de esqui, que inclui o esqui de fundo e o esqui alpino ou de descida. A presente dissertação centra-se principalmente no turismo de esqui bem como em averiguar as motivações para a este tipo de turismo, e investigar a motivação subjacente para o turismo de esqui pela geração Z. Os resultados indicam que, a geração Z está mais motivada para viajar para destinos de turismo de neve e esqui do que as gerações Y e X. Esta descoberta pode dar aos operadores do sector do esqui uma previsão da procura futura, uma vez que desafia a diminuição anteriormente assumida devido às alterações demográficas. Quanto às alterações climáticas, este estudo mostra que os turistas não consideram relevantes as alterações climáticas quando viajam. Isto indica uma maior responsabilidade da indústria do turismo na promoção e garantia de viagens sustentáveis, bem como a necessidade de uma melhor educação no que diz respeito ao impacto ambiental das viagens

A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations among various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution amongst ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agentbased model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attenda nce in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.Peer Reviewe

L'esquí a Catalunya davant del canvi climàtic, de la incertesa a l'oportunitat

El sector turístic de neu dels Pirineus es caracteritza per ser un dels motors econòmics d'aquest territori. Alguns estudis analitzats indican que els Pirineus patiran un augment de la temperatura que influirà decisivament en la viabilitat de les estacions d'esquí, en pujar la cota de neu i disminuir la duració de la temporada. En el context de la resposta al canvi climàtic les estacions d'esquí i el sector turístic de neu poden considerar diferents mesures d'adaptació, atenent al seu grau de vulnerabilitat i les seves característiques geogràfiques pròpies. Amb sistemes de neu artificial hom preveu que bona part de les estacions podrien respondre fins el 2050, però només les estacions més altes seran viables a partir d'aquesta dècada i fins a final de segle, si be existiran grans diferencies depenent de la ubicació geogràfica. La variabilitat climàtica modificarà les destinacions triades pels turistes, amb conseqüències tant positives com negatives en la dinàmica dels fluxos turístics als Pirineus. Aquestes modificacions podrien ser una oportunitat per orientar els futurs canvis del model productiu de neu actual cap a un model productiu més estable i sostenible, amb un impacte ambiental menys intens però amb un caràcter molt més extensiu. La incertesa que genera l'impacte del canvi climàtic en les regions de muntanya podria donar pas a noves estratègies i oportunitats.El sector turístico de nieve de los Pirineos se caracteriza por ser uno de los motores económicos de este territorio. Algunos estudios analizados indican que los Pirineos sufrirán un aumento de la temperatura que influirá decisivamente en la viabilidad de las estaciones de esquí, al elevarse la cota de nieve y disminuir la duración de la temporada. En el contexto de la respuesta al cambio climático las estaciones de esquí y el sector turístico de nieve pueden considerar diferentes medidas de adaptación, atendiendo a su grado de vulnerabilidad y a sus características geográficas propias. Con sistemas de nieve artificial la mayor parte de las estaciones podrían responder hasta 2050, pero sólo las estaciones más altas serán viables a partir de esta década y hasta final de siglo, si bien existirán grandes diferencias dependiendo de la ubicación geográfica. La variabilidad climática modificará los destinos elegidos por los turistas, con consecuencias tanto positivas como negativas en la dinámica de los flujos turísticos en los Pirineos. Estas modificaciones podrían ser una oportunidad para orientar los futuros cambios del modelo productivo de nieve actual hacia un modelo productivo más estable y sostenible, con un impacto ambiental menos intenso pero con un carácter mucho más extensivo. La incertidumbre que genera el impacto del cambio climático en las regiones de montaña podría dar paso a nuevas estrategias y oportunidades.The snow tourism sector in the Pyrenees is characterized by being one of the economic engines of this territory. Some studies analyzed indicate that the Pyrenees will suffer a rise in temperature increasing temperatures in the medium and long term will have a decisive influence on the viability of ski resorts, by raising the snow level and decreasing the duration of the season. In the context of the response to climate change, ski resorts and the snow tourism sector may consider different adaptation measures, depending on their degree of vulnerability and their own geographical characteristics. With artificial snow systems, most resorts will be able to respond, but only the highest resorts will be viable from this decade until the end of the century, although there will be large differences depending on geographic location. Climate variability will change the destinations chosen by tourists, causing both positive and negative repercussions on the dynamics of tourist flows in the Pyrenees. These modifications could be an opportunity to guide future changes in the current snow production model towards a more stable and sustainable production model with a less intense environmental impact but with a much more extensive character. The uncertainty change on mountain regions could lead to new strategies and opportunities

Climate change impacts on winter tourism in the Pyrenees and adaptation strategies

Climate Change has become no longer a conjecture but an objective reality. The increase of the global average temperature, the seas level rise or the increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are some examples observed during the past century that have turned the global warming into a sharply contrasted evidence. In this context of climate change, mountain regions have been defined as especially vulnerable areas. The rapid retreat of glaciers and permafrost surfaces, the decrease of snow precipitations, the increase of natural risks such as landslides or the alteration in the amount and distribution of some species prove the high sensitivity of mountain ecosystems. Moreover, in many mountain economies, reliable snowpack plays a key role as an important resource for the winter tourism industry, one of the main income source and driving force of local development in such regions. For this reason, research on the effects of Climate Change on the snowpack depth and duration is particularly necessary in order to assess the potential socioeconomic impacts in mountain regions. If we focus on Andorra and the Pyrenees, there is a research gap due to a clearly lack of academic studies in this field. For this reason, it is not accurately known how Climate Change will affect the ski industry and which are the most suitable adaptation strategies for this specific region. The main goal of this research is to analyze how climate change could affect the snow cover and the snowpack in the Pyrenean ski resorts and to assess the resulting vulnerability of the ski industry of this region. Moreover, the adaptive behavior of skiers to climate change has been included in the analysis in order to analyze the potential redistribution of visitors among the ski resorts due to heterogeneous climate change vulnerability. Based on the results, this study analyzes the suitability and sustainability of the adaptation techniques and strategies to offset the climate variability, first in a case study of Andorra in order to develop a preliminary model and finally extending the analysis to the whole Pyrenees in order to assess the potential concurrence among ski resorts with differentiated climate vulnerability and tourism attractiveness and the resulting redistribution of skiers based on their behavioral adaptation to climate effects. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions and two more including the effect of snowmaking. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.En els darrers anys, el canvi climàtic ha passat de ser una conjectura a una realitat objectiva. L'increment de la temperatura en superfície, l'increment del nivell del mar o l'increment de la freqüència i la magnitud d'alguns fenòmens meteorològics extrems són alguns exemples de canvis observats durant el segle passat que han fet el canvi climàtic una evidència contrastada. En aquest context, les regions de muntanya han estat identificades com a zones especialment vulnerables. El retrocès de les glaceres, els canvis en els patrons de precipitacions en forma de neu o les alteracions en la quantitat i la distribució d'algunes espècies animals i vegetals són algunes proves de l'alta sensitivitat dels ecosistemes de muntanya. A més a més, en moltes economies de muntanya, la disponibilitat de neu juga un paper clau com a recurs fonamental del turisme d'hivern, una de les principals activitats econòmiques i important motor de desenvolupament local en aquestes regions. Per aquest motiu, entendre els efectes del canvi climàtic sobre la cobertura de neu, i especialment en les zones d'esquí, és especialment necessària per tal d'avaluar alguns dels possibles impactes socioeconòmics en les regions de muntanya. Si ens centrem en el cas d'Andorra i el Pirineu en general, existeix una manca d'estudis acadèmics que analitzin amb detall com el canvi climàtic pot afectar el turisme d'hivern i quines serien les estratègies d'adaptació més adequades. El principal objectiu d'aquesta tesi és analitzar com el canvi climàtic projectat pot afectar la cobertura de neu a les estacions d'esquí alpí del Pirineu i avaluar la vulnerabilitat del sector de l'esquí en aquesta regió. Degut a que la vulnerabilitat de les estacions no és homogenia a tota la regió Pirenaica, la tesi també analitza la capacitat adaptativa dels esquiadors per tal d'avaluar la potencial redistribució entre estacions menys vulnerables i més resilients. A partir d'aquests resultats, s'analitza la ideneïtat i sostenibilitat de les opcions d'adaptació en funció del grau de vulnerabilitat. Primer de tot, s'ha realitzat un primer cas d'estudi centrat en Andorra, per tal de desenvolupar la metodologia i un model preliminar. Finalment s'ha estés l'estudi a la resta del Pirineu afegint-ne l'efecte de l'adaptació dels esquiadors i la possible redistribució resultant entre les estacions amb una atractivitat turística i vulnerabilitat climàtica diferenciada. S'han considerat 4 escenaris diferents. Dos assumint un increment de la temperatura mitjana de +2°C i +4°C respectivament i tenint en compte només condicions de neu natural i dos més incorporant-ne l'efecte de la producció de neu de cultiu pels mateixos increments de temperatura. Els resultats mostren diferents graus de vulnerabilitat de les estacions, permetent-ne la seva classificació en tres grups: (1) estacions altament vulnerables amb fortes reduccions de la cobertura de neu i de la freqüentació per a tots els escenaris, caracteritzades per unes condicions geogràfiques i d'atractivitat turístiques menys favorables; (2) estacions de baixa vulnerabilitat, amb una reducció moderada de la temporada d'esquí en un escenari de major increment de temperatura pero amb poca o nula afectació en un escenari moderat, caracteritzades per una atractivitat mitja i millors condicions per assegurar una major temporada que les estacions més vulnerables; i (3) estacions resilients amb condicions geogràfiques privilegiades i una alta atractivitat turística, amb capacitat d'oferir temporades més llargues i amb millors condicions de neu i per tant amb el potencial d'atraure esquiadors d'aquelles estacions més vulnerables. Tot i que estudis similars projecten una reducció significativa del turisme d'hivern en diverses regions del planeta degut al canvi climàtic, els resultats d'aquesta tesi s'inclinen cap a una futura redefinició del sector com a conseqüència de la redistribució d'esquiadors de les estacions més vulnerables cap a les més resilients

Development of emergency response systems by intelligent and integrated approaches for marine oil spill accidents

Oil products play a pervasive role in modern society as one of the dominant energy fuel sources. Marine activities related to oil extraction and transportation play a vital role in resource supply. However, marine oil spills occur due to such human activities or harsh environmental factors. The emergency accidents of spills cause negative impacts on the marine environment, human health, and economic loss. The responses to marine oil spills, especially large-scale spills, are relatively challenging and inefficient due to changing environmental conditions, limited response resources, various unknown or uncertain factors and complex resource allocation processes. The development of previous research mainly focused on single process simulation, prediction, or optimization (e.g., oil trajectory, weathering, or cleanup optimization). There is still a lack of research on comprehensive and integrated emergency responses considering multiple types of simulations, types of resource allocations, stages of accident occurrence to response, and criteria for system optimizations. Optimization algorithms are an important part of system optimization and decision-making. Their performance directly affacts the quality of emergency response systems and operations. Thus, how to improve efficiency of emergency response systems becomes urgent and essential for marine oil spill management. The power and potential of integrating intelligent-based modeling of dynamic processes and system optimization have been recognized to better support oil spill responders with more efficient response decisions and planning tools. Meanwhile, response decision-making combined with human factor analysis can help quantitatively evaluate the impacts of multiple causal factors on the overall processes and operational performance after an accident. To address the challenges and gaps, this dissertation research focused on the development and improvement of new emergency response systems and their applications for marine oil spill response in the following aspects: 1) Realization of coupling dynamic simulation and system optimization for marine oil spill responses - The developed Simulation-Based Multi-Agent Particle Swarm Optimization (SA-PSO) modeling investigated the capacity of agent-based modeling on dynamic simulation of spill fate and response, particle swarm optimization on response allocation with minimal time and multi-agent system on information sharing. 2) Investigation of multi-type resource allocation under a complex simulation condition and improvement of optimization performance - The improved emergency response system was achieved by dynamic resource transportation, oil weathering and response simulations and resource allocation optimization. The enhanced particle swarm optimization (ME-PSO) algorithm performed outstanding convergence performance and low computation cost characteristics integrating multi-agent theory (MA) and evolutionary population dynamics (EPD). 3) Analysis and evaluation of influencing factors of multiple stages of spill accidents based on human factors/errors and multi-criteria decision making - The developed human factors analysis and classification system for marine oil spill accidents (HFACS-OS) framework qualitatively evaluated the influence of various factors and errors associated with the multiple operational stages considered for oil spill preparedness and response (e.g., oil spill occurrence, spill monitoring, decision making/contingency planning, and spill response). The framework was further coupled with quantitative data analysis by Fuzzy-based Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Idea Solution (Fuzzy-TOPSIS) to enhance decision-making during response operations under multiple criteria. 4) Development of a multi-criteria emergency response system with the enhanced optimization algorithm, multi-mode resource transportation and allocation and a more complex and realistic simulation modelling - The developed multi-criteria emergency response system (MC-ERS) system integrated dynamic process simulations and weighted multi-criteria system optimization. Total response time, response cost and environmental impacts were regarded as multiple optimization goals. An improved weighted sum optimization function was developed to unify the scaling and proportion of different goals. A comparative PSO was also developed with various algorithm-improving methods and the best-performing inertia weight function. The proposed emergency response approaches in studies were examined by oil spill case studies related to the North Atlantic Ocean and Canada circumstances to analyze the modelling performance and evaluate their practicality and applicability. The developed optimization algorithms were tested by benchmarked functions, other optimization algorithms, and an oil spill case. The developed emergency response systems and the contained simulation and optimization algorithms showed the strong capability for decision-making and emergency responses by recommending optimal resource management or evaluations of essential factors. This research was expected to provide time-efficient, and cost-saving emergency response management approaches for handling and managing marine oil spills. The research also improved our knowledge of the significance of human factors/errors to oil spill accidents and response operations and provided improved support tools for decision making. The dissertation research helped fill some important gaps in emergency response research and management practice, especially in marine oil spill response, through an innovative integration of dynamic simulation, resource optimization, human factor analysis, and artificial intelligence methods. The research outcomes can also provide methodological support and valuable references for other fields that require timely and effective decisions, system optimizations, process controls, planning and designs under complicated conditions, uncertainties, and interactions