Evolutionary algorithm-based analysis of gravitational microlensing lightcurves

A new algorithm developed to perform autonomous fitting of gravitational microlensing lightcurves is presented. The new algorithm is conceptually simple, versatile and robust, and parallelises trivially; it combines features of extant evolutionary algorithms with some novel ones, and fares well on the problem of fitting binary-lens microlensing lightcurves, as well as on a number of other difficult optimisation problems. Success rates in excess of 90% are achieved when fitting synthetic though noisy binary-lens lightcurves, allowing no more than 20 minutes per fit on a desktop computer; this success rate is shown to compare very favourably with that of both a conventional (iterated simplex) algorithm, and a more state-of-the-art, artificial neural network-based approach. As such, this work provides proof of concept for the use of an evolutionary algorithm as the basis for real-time, autonomous modelling of microlensing events. Further work is required to investigate how the algorithm will fare when faced with more complex and realistic microlensing modelling problems; it is, however, argued here that the use of parallel computing platforms, such as inexpensive graphics processing units, should allow fitting times to be constrained to under an hour, even when dealing with complicated microlensing models. In any event, it is hoped that this work might stimulate some interest in evolutionary algorithms, and that the algorithm described here might prove useful for solving microlensing and/or more general model-fitting problems.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures; accepted for publication in MNRA

Ensemble Learning for Free with Evolutionary Algorithms ?

Evolutionary Learning proceeds by evolving a population of classifiers, from which it generally returns (with some notable exceptions) the single best-of-run classifier as final result. In the meanwhile, Ensemble Learning, one of the most efficient approaches in supervised Machine Learning for the last decade, proceeds by building a population of diverse classifiers. Ensemble Learning with Evolutionary Computation thus receives increasing attention. The Evolutionary Ensemble Learning (EEL) approach presented in this paper features two contributions. First, a new fitness function, inspired by co-evolution and enforcing the classifier diversity, is presented. Further, a new selection criterion based on the classification margin is proposed. This criterion is used to extract the classifier ensemble from the final population only (Off-line) or incrementally along evolution (On-line). Experiments on a set of benchmark problems show that Off-line outperforms single-hypothesis evolutionary learning and state-of-art Boosting and generates smaller classifier ensembles

A hybrid swarm-based algorithm for single-objective optimization problems involving high-cost analyses

In many technical fields, single-objective optimization procedures in continuous domains involve expensive numerical simulations. In this context, an improvement of the Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm, called the Artificial super-Bee enhanced Colony (AsBeC), is presented. AsBeC is designed to provide fast convergence speed, high solution accuracy and robust performance over a wide range of problems. It implements enhancements of the ABC structure and hybridizations with interpolation strategies. The latter are inspired by the quadratic trust region approach for local investigation and by an efficient global optimizer for separable problems. Each modification and their combined effects are studied with appropriate metrics on a numerical benchmark, which is also used for comparing AsBeC with some effective ABC variants and other derivative-free algorithms. In addition, the presented algorithm is validated on two recent benchmarks adopted for competitions in international conferences. Results show remarkable competitiveness and robustness for AsBeC.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures, Springer Swarm Intelligenc

Algorithm Portfolios for Noisy Optimization

Noisy optimization is the optimization of objective functions corrupted by noise. A portfolio of solvers is a set of solvers equipped with an algorithm selection tool for distributing the computational power among them. Portfolios are widely and successfully used in combinatorial optimization. In this work, we study portfolios of noisy optimization solvers. We obtain mathematically proved performance (in the sense that the portfolio performs nearly as well as the best of its solvers) by an ad hoc portfolio algorithm dedicated to noisy optimization. A somehow surprising result is that it is better to compare solvers with some lag, i.e., propose the current recommendation of best solver based on their performance earlier in the run. An additional finding is a principled method for distributing the computational power among solvers in the portfolio.Comment: in Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence, Springer Verlag, 201

Planning as Optimization: Dynamically Discovering Optimal Configurations for Runtime Situations

The large number of possible configurations of modern software-based systems, combined with the large number of possible environmental situations of such systems, prohibits enumerating all adaptation options at design time and necessitates planning at run time to dynamically identify an appropriate configuration for a situation. While numerous planning techniques exist, they typically assume a detailed state-based model of the system and that the situations that warrant adaptations are known. Both of these assumptions can be violated in complex, real-world systems. As a result, adaptation planning must rely on simple models that capture what can be changed (input parameters) and observed in the system and environment (output and context parameters). We therefore propose planning as optimization: the use of optimization strategies to discover optimal system configurations at runtime for each distinct situation that is also dynamically identified at runtime. We apply our approach to CrowdNav, an open-source traffic routing system with the characteristics of a real-world system. We identify situations via clustering and conduct an empirical study that compares Bayesian optimization and two types of evolutionary optimization (NSGA-II and novelty search) in CrowdNav

Modeling cumulative biological phenomena with Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks

Several diseases related to cell proliferation are characterized by the accumulation of somatic DNA changes, with respect to wildtype conditions. Cancer and HIV are two common examples of such diseases, where the mutational load in the cancerous/viral population increases over time. In these cases, selective pressures are often observed along with competition, cooperation and parasitism among distinct cellular clones. Recently, we presented a mathematical framework to model these phenomena, based on a combination of Bayesian inference and Suppes' theory of probabilistic causation, depicted in graphical structures dubbed Suppes-Bayes Causal Networks (SBCNs). SBCNs are generative probabilistic graphical models that recapitulate the potential ordering of accumulation of such DNA changes during the progression of the disease. Such models can be inferred from data by exploiting likelihood-based model-selection strategies with regularization. In this paper we discuss the theoretical foundations of our approach and we investigate in depth the influence on the model-selection task of: (i) the poset based on Suppes' theory and (ii) different regularization strategies. Furthermore, we provide an example of application of our framework to HIV genetic data highlighting the valuable insights provided by the inferred