A Comparative Study on the Use of Classification Algorithms in Financial Forecasting

Financial forecasting is a vital area in computational finance, where several studies have taken place over the years. One way of viewing financial forecasting is as a classification problem, where the goal is to find a model that represents the predictive relationships between predictor attribute values and class attribute values. In this paper we present a comparative study between two bio-inspired classification algorithms, a genetic programming algorithm especially designed for financial forecasting, and an ant colony optimization one, which is designed for classification problems. In addition, we compare the above algorithms with two other state-of-the-art classification algorithms, namely C4.5 and RIPPER. Results show that the ant colony optimization classification algorithm is very successful, significantly outperforming all other algorithms in the given classification problems, which provides insights for improving the design of specific financial forecasting algorithms

Local search: A guide for the information retrieval practitioner

There are a number of combinatorial optimisation problems in information retrieval in which the use of local search methods are worthwhile. The purpose of this paper is to show how local search can be used to solve some well known tasks in information retrieval (IR), how previous research in the field is piecemeal, bereft of a structure and methodologically flawed, and to suggest more rigorous ways of applying local search methods to solve IR problems. We provide a query based taxonomy for analysing the use of local search in IR tasks and an overview of issues such as fitness functions, statistical significance and test collections when conducting experiments on combinatorial optimisation problems. The paper gives a guide on the pitfalls and problems for IR practitioners who wish to use local search to solve their research issues, and gives practical advice on the use of such methods. The query based taxonomy is a novel structure which can be used by the IR practitioner in order to examine the use of local search in IR

Semantic variation operators for multidimensional genetic programming

Multidimensional genetic programming represents candidate solutions as sets of programs, and thereby provides an interesting framework for exploiting building block identification. Towards this goal, we investigate the use of machine learning as a way to bias which components of programs are promoted, and propose two semantic operators to choose where useful building blocks are placed during crossover. A forward stagewise crossover operator we propose leads to significant improvements on a set of regression problems, and produces state-of-the-art results in a large benchmark study. We discuss this architecture and others in terms of their propensity for allowing heuristic search to utilize information during the evolutionary process. Finally, we look at the collinearity and complexity of the data representations that result from these architectures, with a view towards disentangling factors of variation in application.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures, GECCO 201

A generic optimising feature extraction method using multiobjective genetic programming

In this paper, we present a generic, optimising feature extraction method using multiobjective genetic programming. We re-examine the feature extraction problem and show that effective feature extraction can significantly enhance the performance of pattern recognition systems with simple classifiers. A framework is presented to evolve optimised feature extractors that transform an input pattern space into a decision space in which maximal class separability is obtained. We have applied this method to real world datasets from the UCI Machine Learning and StatLog databases to verify our approach and compare our proposed method with other reported results. We conclude that our algorithm is able to produce classifiers of superior (or equivalent) performance to the conventional classifiers examined, suggesting removal of the need to exhaustively evaluate a large family of conventional classifiers on any new problem. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved