A dynamic prescriptive maintenance model considering system aging and degradation

This paper develops a dynamic maintenance strategy for a system subject to aging and degradation. The influence of degradation level and aging on system failure rate is modeled in an additive way. Based on the observed degradation level at the inspection, repair or replacement is carried out upon the system. Previous researches assume that repair will always lead to an improvement in the health condition of the system. However, in our study, repair reduces the system age but on the other hand, increases the degradation level. Considering the two-fold influence of maintenance actions, we perform reliability analysis on system reliability as a first step. The evolution of system reliability serves as a foundation for establishing the maintenance model. The optimal maintenance strategy is achieved by minimizing the long-run cost rate in terms of the repair cycle. At each inspection, the parameters of the degradation processes are updated with maximum a posteriori estimation when a new observation arrives. The effectiveness of the proposed model is illustrated through a case study of locomotive wheel-sets. The maintenance model considers the influence of degradation and aging on system failure and dynamically determines the optimal inspection time, which is more flexible than traditional stationary maintenance strategies and can provide better performance in the field

Maintenance optimization in industry 4.0

This work reviews maintenance optimization from different and complementary points of view. Specifically, we systematically analyze the knowledge, information and data that can be exploited for maintenance optimization within the Industry 4.0 paradigm. Then, the possible objectives of the optimization are critically discussed, together with the maintenance features to be optimized, such as maintenance periods and degradation thresholds. The main challenges and trends of maintenance optimization are, then, highlighted and the need is identified for methods that do not require a-priori selection of a predefined maintenance strategy, are able to deal with large amounts of heterogeneous data collected from different sources, can properly treat all the uncertainties affecting the behavior of the systems and the environment, and can jointly consider multiple optimization objectives, including the emerging ones related to sustainability and resilience

Aging concrete structures: a review of mechanics and concepts

The safe and cost-efficient management of our built infrastructure is a challenging task considering the expected service life of at least 50 years. In spite of time-dependent changes in material properties, deterioration processes and changing demand by society, the structures need to satisfy many technical requirements related to serviceability, durability, sustainability and bearing capacity. This review paper summarizes the challenges associated with the safe design and maintenance of aging concrete structures and gives an overview of some concepts and approaches that are being developed to address these challenges

Flexible operation and maintenance optimization of aging cyber-physical energy systems by deep reinforcement learning

Cyber-Physical Energy Systems (CPESs) integrate cyber and hardware components to ensure a reliable and safe physical power production and supply. Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) add uncertainty to energy demand that can be dealt with flexible operation (e.g., load-following) of CPES; at the same time, scenarios that could result in severe consequences due to both component stochastic failures and aging of the cyber system of CPES (commonly overlooked) must be accounted for Operation & Maintenance (O&M) planning. In this paper, we make use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to search for the optimal O&M strategy that, not only considers the actual system hardware components health conditions and their Remaining Useful Life (RUL), but also the possible accident scenarios caused by the failures and the aging of the hardware and the cyber components, respectively. The novelty of the work lies in embedding the cyber aging model into the CPES model of production planning and failure process; this model is used to help the RL agent, trained with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Imitation Learning (IL), finding the proper rejuvenation timing for the cyber system accounting for the uncertainty of the cyber system aging process. An application is provided, with regards to the Advanced Lead-cooled Fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED)

Implementation of maintenance strategies in the life cycle costing of product-service systems

Estimating the costs of products during development to design a cost efficent product is a well established process. But in the case of Product-Service Systems estimating the costs of the individual product is not sufficent. Instead it is necessary to calculate the cost incured over the entire life cycle of the product. Because with Product-Service Systems the majority of costs is not incurred during manufacturing of the product but instead during the operation. One of the major cost components accruing during the operation of the product are the maintennace costs. Therefore, current life cycle costing models show the impoact of component design on the maintennace cost of the Product-Service System. But they do not show how different maintennace strategies that can have an impact on the overall life cycle costs of the Product-Service System. Thus, this paper shows a method for the implementation of different maintennace strategies into life cycle costing and applies it in an industrial use case

Smart Data Selection and Reduction for Electric Vehicle Service Analytics

Battery electric vehicles (BEV) are increasingly used in mobility services such as car-sharing. A severe problem with BEV is battery degradation, leading to a reduction of the already very limited range of a BEV. Analytic models are required to determine the impact of service usage to provide guidance on how to drive and charge and also to support service tasks such as predictive maintenance. However, while the increasing number of sensor data in automotive applications allows for more fine-grained model parameterization and better predictive outcomes, in practical settings the amount of storage and transmission bandwidth is limited by technical and economical considerations. By means of a simulation-based analysis, dynamic user behavior is simulated based on real-world driving profiles parameterized by different driver characteristics and ambient conditions. We find that by using a shrinked subset of variables the required storage can be reduced considerably at low costs in terms of only slightly decreased predictive accuracy.

Coupling of solar reflective cool roofing solutions with sub-surface phase change materials (PCM) to avoid condensation and biological growth

Cool roofs are effective solutions to counter the overheating of building roofs, inhabited spaces below and urban areas in which buildings are located thanks to their capability of reflecting solar radiation. Nonetheless, the relatively low surface temperatures that they induce can cause condensation of humidity and leave the surface wetted for large part of the day, thus promoting the growth of bacteria, algae and other biological fouling; this can cause a quick decay of the solar reflective performance. Biological growth is countered by surface treatments, which however may be toxic and forbidden in many countries and may also vanish quickly. It can also be countered by lowering the thermal emittance and thus decreasing heat transfer by infrared radiation to the sky and the consequent night undercooling, but this can decrease the performance of cool roofs. An alternative approach, which is analyzed in this work, is to embed in the first layer below the cool roof surface a phase change material (PCM) that absorbs heat during the daytime and then releases it in the nighttime. This can increase the minimum surface temperatures, thus reducing the occurrence humidity condensation and, with this, the biological growth. In this work, preliminary results on the coupling of a cool roof surface with a PCM sublayer are presented, being obtained by theoretical investigation on commercial materials and taking into account the time evolution pattern of the environmental conditions

Optimal Decision Making in Electrical Systems Using an Asset Risk Management Framework

In this paper, a methodology for optimal decision making for electrical systems is addressed. This methodology seeks to identify and to prioritize the replacement and maintenance of a power asset fleet optimizing the return of investment. It fulfills this objective by considering the risk index, the replacement and maintenance costs, and the company revenue. The risk index is estimated and predicted for each asset using both its condition records and by evaluating the consequence of its failure. The condition is quantified as the probability of failure of the asset, and the consequence is determined by the impact of the asset failure on the whole system. Failure probability is estimated using the health index as scoring of asset condition. The consequence is evaluated considering a failure impact on the objectives of reliability (energy not supplied -ENS), environment, legality, and finance using Monte Carlo simulations for an assumed period of planning. Finally, the methodology was implemented in an open-source library called PywerAPM for assessing optimal decisions, where the proposed mathematical optimization problem is solved. As a benchmark, the power transformer fleet of the New England IEEE 39 Bus System was used. Condition records were provided by a local utility to compute the health index of each transformer. Subsequently, a Monte Carlo contingency simulation was performed to estimate the energy not supplied for a period of analysis of 10 years. As a result, the fleet is ranked according to risk index, and the optimal replacement and maintenance are estimated for the entire fleet