A comparative study of tree-based models for churn prediction : a case study in the telecommunication sector

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Marketing Research e CRMIn the recent years the topic of customer churn gains an increasing importance, which is the phenomena of the customers abandoning the company to another in the future. Customer churn plays an important role especially in the more saturated industries like telecommunication industry. Since the existing customers are very valuable and the acquisition cost of new customers is very high nowadays. The companies want to know which of their customers and when are they going to churn to another provider, so that measures can be taken to retain the customers who are at risk of churning. Such measures could be in the form of incentives to the churners, but the downside is the wrong classification of a churners will cost the company a lot, especially when incentives are given to some non-churner customers. The common challenge to predict customer churn will be how to pre-process the data and which algorithm to choose, especially when the dataset is heterogeneous which is very common for telecommunication companies’ datasets. The presented thesis aims at predicting customer churn for telecommunication sector using different decision tree algorithms and its ensemble models

Classification hardness for supervised learners on 20 years of intrusion detection data

This article consolidates analysis of established (NSL-KDD) and new intrusion detection datasets (ISCXIDS2012, CICIDS2017, CICIDS2018) through the use of supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms. The uniformity in analysis procedure opens up the option to compare the obtained results. It also provides a stronger foundation for the conclusions about the efficacy of supervised learners on the main classification task in network security. This research is motivated in part to address the lack of adoption of these modern datasets. Starting with a broad scope that includes classification by algorithms from different families on both established and new datasets has been done to expand the existing foundation and reveal the most opportune avenues for further inquiry. After obtaining baseline results, the classification task was increased in difficulty, by reducing the available data to learn from, both horizontally and vertically. The data reduction has been included as a stress-test to verify if the very high baseline results hold up under increasingly harsh constraints. Ultimately, this work contains the most comprehensive set of results on the topic of intrusion detection through supervised machine learning. Researchers working on algorithmic improvements can compare their results to this collection, knowing that all results reported here were gathered through a uniform framework. This work's main contributions are the outstanding classification results on the current state of the art datasets for intrusion detection and the conclusion that these methods show remarkable resilience in classification performance even when aggressively reducing the amount of data to learn from

Intrusion detection by machine learning = Behatolás detektálás gépi tanulás által

Since the early days of information technology, there have been many stakeholders who used the technological capabilities for their own benefit, be it legal operations, or illegal access to computational assets and sensitive information. Every year, businesses invest large amounts of effort into upgrading their IT infrastructure, yet, even today, they are unprepared to protect their most valuable assets: data and knowledge. This lack of protection was the main reason for the creation of this dissertation. During this study, intrusion detection, a field of information security, is evaluated through the use of several machine learning models performing signature and hybrid detection. This is a challenging field, mainly due to the high velocity and imbalanced nature of network traffic. To construct machine learning models capable of intrusion detection, the applied methodologies were the CRISP-DM process model designed to help data scientists with the planning, creation and integration of machine learning models into a business information infrastructure, and design science research interested in answering research questions with information technology artefacts. The two methodologies have a lot in common, which is further elaborated in the study. The goals of this dissertation were two-fold: first, to create an intrusion detector that could provide a high level of intrusion detection performance measured using accuracy and recall and second, to identify potential techniques that can increase intrusion detection performance. Out of the designed models, a hybrid autoencoder + stacking neural network model managed to achieve detection performance comparable to the best models that appeared in the related literature, with good detections on minority classes. To achieve this result, the techniques identified were synthetic sampling, advanced hyperparameter optimization, model ensembles and autoencoder networks. In addition, the dissertation set up a soft hierarchy among the different detection techniques in terms of performance and provides a brief outlook on potential future practical applications of network intrusion detection models as well

Ensemble Feature Learning-Based Event Classification for Cyber-Physical Security of the Smart Grid

The power grids are transforming into the cyber-physical smart grid with increasing two-way communications and abundant data flows. Despite the efficiency and reliability promised by this transformation, the growing threats and incidences of cyber attacks targeting the physical power systems have exposed severe vulnerabilities. To tackle such vulnerabilities, intrusion detection systems (IDS) are proposed to monitor threats for the cyber-physical security of electrical power and energy systems in the smart grid with increasing machine-to-machine communication. However, the multi-sourced, correlated, and often noise-contained data, which record various concurring cyber and physical events, are posing significant challenges to the accurate distinction by IDS among events of inadvertent and malignant natures. Hence, in this research, an ensemble learning-based feature learning and classification for cyber-physical smart grid are designed and implemented. The contribution of this research are (i) the design, implementation and evaluation of an ensemble learning-based attack classifier using extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to effectively detect and identify attack threats from the heterogeneous cyber-physical information in the smart grid; (ii) the design, implementation and evaluation of stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) to extract highlyrepresentative feature space that allow reconstruction of a noise-free input from noise-corrupted perturbations; (iii) the design, implementation and evaluation of a novel ensemble learning-based feature extractors that combine multiple autoencoder (AE) feature extractors and random forest base classifiers, so as to enable accurate reconstruction of each feature and reliable classification against malicious events. The simulation results validate the usefulness of ensemble learning approach in detecting malicious events in the cyber-physical smart grid

Machine learning for network based intrusion detection: an investigation into discrepancies in findings with the KDD cup '99 data set and multi-objective evolution of neural network classifier ensembles from imbalanced data.

For the last decade it has become commonplace to evaluate machine learning techniques for network based intrusion detection on the KDD Cup '99 data set. This data set has served well to demonstrate that machine learning can be useful in intrusion detection. However, it has undergone some criticism in the literature, and it is out of date. Therefore, some researchers question the validity of the findings reported based on this data set. Furthermore, as identified in this thesis, there are also discrepancies in the findings reported in the literature. In some cases the results are contradictory. Consequently, it is difficult to analyse the current body of research to determine the value in the findings. This thesis reports on an empirical investigation to determine the underlying causes of the discrepancies. Several methodological factors, such as choice of data subset, validation method and data preprocessing, are identified and are found to affect the results significantly. These findings have also enabled a better interpretation of the current body of research. Furthermore, the criticisms in the literature are addressed and future use of the data set is discussed, which is important since researchers continue to use it due to a lack of better publicly available alternatives. Due to the nature of the intrusion detection domain, there is an extreme imbalance among the classes in the KDD Cup '99 data set, which poses a significant challenge to machine learning. In other domains, researchers have demonstrated that well known techniques such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Decision Trees (DTs) often fail to learn the minor class(es) due to class imbalance. However, this has not been recognized as an issue in intrusion detection previously. This thesis reports on an empirical investigation that demonstrates that it is the class imbalance that causes the poor detection of some classes of intrusion reported in the literature. An alternative approach to training ANNs is proposed in this thesis, using Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to evolve the weights of the ANNs, referred to as an Evolutionary Neural Network (ENN). When employing evaluation functions that calculate the fitness proportionally to the instances of each class, thereby avoiding a bias towards the major class(es) in the data set, significantly improved true positive rates are obtained whilst maintaining a low false positive rate. These findings demonstrate that the issues of learning from imbalanced data are not due to limitations of the ANNs; rather the training algorithm. Moreover, the ENN is capable of detecting a class of intrusion that has been reported in the literature to be undetectable by ANNs. One limitation of the ENN is a lack of control of the classification trade-off the ANNs obtain. This is identified as a general issue with current approaches to creating classifiers. Striving to create a single best classifier that obtains the highest accuracy may give an unfruitful classification trade-off, which is demonstrated clearly in this thesis. Therefore, an extension of the ENN is proposed, using a Multi-Objective GA (MOGA), which treats the classification rate on each class as a separate objective. This approach produces a Pareto front of non-dominated solutions that exhibit different classification trade-offs, from which the user can select one with the desired properties. The multi-objective approach is also utilised to evolve classifier ensembles, which yields an improved Pareto front of solutions. Furthermore, the selection of classifier members for the ensembles is investigated, demonstrating how this affects the performance of the resultant ensembles. This is a key to explaining why some classifier combinations fail to give fruitful solutions