Impact of exchange rate changes on domestic inflation: a study of a small Pacific Island economy

This paper investigates the effect of changes in exchange rate on consumer price level, in Fiji, known as exchange rate pass-through during a thirty year period (1982-2009). Specifically, three time periods are focused on: the pre-coup years (1982-1986); post coup years (1987-2009); and full time period (1982-2009). Monthly data on consumer price index, nominal exchange rate, monetary aggregate and interest rate are utilized. The study results show that the degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic price was relatively low during the entire sample period at 0.183. It was 0.453 and 0.373 for the pre and post coups periods. Regardless of the sample periods under study, the monetary aggregate, as a variable plays a pivotal in stabilizing the price level.Exchange rate pass-through, price, monetary measure, cointegration, Granger causality

PYŁAT, Joanna, 2012. Friends of Poland 1982–2009

PYŁAT, Joanna, 2012. Friends of Poland 1982–2009. London: Polish Society of Arts and Sciences Abroad, ss. 133

Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries

This paper investigates empirically the effect of personal income tax progressivity on output volatility in a sample of OECD countries over the period 1982-2009. Our measure of tax progressivity is based on the difference between the marginal and the average income tax rate for the average production worker. We find supportive empirical evidence for the hypothesis that higher personal income tax progressivity leads to lower output volatility. All other factors constant, countries with more progressive personal income tax systems seem to benefit from stronger automatic stabilisers. JEL Classification: E63, E32, H10automatic stabilisers, output volatility, personal income taxes, Progressivity

Financial Integration, Globalization, and Real Activity

Using data for a large number of advanced and emerging market economies during 1982-2009, this paper examines the distinct impact of financial integration and globalization on several dimensions of real activity. We find that: (a) financial integration has progressed significantly worldwide, particularly in emerging markets, as well as within regions; (b) advances in financial integration predict better growth prospects; (c) both advances in financial integration and globalization are associated with higher growth, lower growth volatility, and lower probabilities of severe declines in real activity. Advances in financial integration and globalization indeed foster countries’ growth, and there appears to be no trade-off between these advances and macroeconomic stability.financial integration, globalization, real activity

DINAMIKA SOSIAL BUDAYA SENIMAN DONGKREK KECAMATAN MEJAYAN KABUPATEN MADIUN TAHUN 1982 - 2009

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui (1) Bagaimana pasang surut kesenian Dongkrek pada tahun 1982-2009. (2) Bagaimana kehidupan sosial budaya seniman Dongkrek dalam masyarakat Kecamatan Mejayan. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian historis, sehingga langkah-langkah yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini meliputi heuristik, kritik sumber, interpretasi, dan historiografi. Teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah studi dokumen, studi pustaka, vasi dan wawancara dengan beberapa informan sebagai sumber sekunder. ta yang terkumpul kemudian diseleksi, dianalisa, dan diinterpretasikan gan menggunakan pendekatan sosial, pendekatan budaya, pendekatan ekonomi, dan pendekatan kesenian. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa dapat mengetahui pasang surut k pada tahun 1982-2009, penelitian ini juga mendiskripsikan kesenian Dongkrek dan fungsi serta peran kesenian Dongkrek bagi masyarakat yang pertama untuk mengusir pageblukatau penolak bala, tetapi mulai perkembangan zaman kesenian Dongkrek mengalami pergeseran fungsi sehingga kesenian ini mengandung unsur tontonan dan tuntunan. Untuk membahas k tidak lupa juga mengetahui kehidupan sosial budaya seniman Dongkrek dalam masyarakat Kecamatan Mejayan yang berperan penting dalam perkembangan kesenian ini. Kesimpulan dalam penelitian ini adalah kesenian Dongkrek merupakan warisan leluhur dari Kecamatan Mejayan Kabupaten Madiun yang patut dilestarikan dan di jaga. Karena kesenian Dongkrek memiliki alur cerita dan asal usul yang jelas serta memberikan tujuan baik untuk masyarakat. Tahun 1982-2009 merupakan pasung surutnya kesenian Dongkrek dari awal kesenian berbentuk arak-arakan menjadi seni pertunjukan dan mengalami banyak proses perubahan di dalamnya. Dari perkembangan serta naik turunnya kesenian Dongkrek tidak lepas dari terlibatnya para seniman yang memberikan hidup serta semangat dalam perkembangan kesenian Dongkrek untuk lebih baik dan dikenal di masyarakat umum

PERANAN KH. MOH. MA’SHUM YUSUF DALAM MENGEMBANGKAN PONDOK MODERN ARRISALAH PONOROGO TAHUN 1982-2009

Skripsi ini mengkaji tentang peranan KH. Moh. Ma’shum Yusuf dalam mengembangkan Pondok Modern Arrisalah tahun 1982-2009. Pondok ini mulai dirintis pada tahun 1982 oleh KH. Moh. Mashum Yusuf dan diresmikan pada tanggal 26 Febuari 1985 dengan nama Madinatu At-Thulab. Gagasan utama pendirian Pondok Modern Arrisalah disebabkan rasa keprihatinan KH. Moh. Ma’shum Yusuf terhadap pendidikan anak-anak di sekitar tempat tinggalnya.Adapun permasalah yang dibahas pada penelitian ini, meliputi: (1) Bagaimana latar belakang berdirinya Pondok Modern Arrisalah Ponorogo; (2) Bagaimana perkembangan Pondok Modern Arrisalah Ponorogo tahun 1982-2009; (3) Bagaimana peranan KH. Moh. Ma’shum Yusuf dalam mengembangkan Pondok Modern Arrisalah Ponorogo tahun 1982-2009. Dalam menjawab permasalahan tersebut, penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan historis yang meliputi heuristik, kritik, interprestasi dan historiografi. Sumber-sumber yang digunakan berupa sumber primer yaitu wawancara langsung dengan pimpinan Pondok Modern Arrisalah Ponorogo yaitu KH. Moh. Ma’shum Yusuf. Selain itu, penulis juga menggunakan beberapa sumber primer berupa arsip dan piagam pendirian Pondok Modern Arrisalah Ponorogo.Berdasarkan penelitian yang dilakukan dapat disimpulkan bahwa, perkembangan Pondok Modern Arrisalah Ponorogo dibagi menjadi tiga periode yaitu, periode pra-pesantren dimulai sejak pertama kali pondok ini dirintis tahun 1982, periode pondok modern bertaraf nasional dimulai sejak peresmian pondok yaitu pada tanggal 26 Pebruari 1985 dan periode pondok modern bertaraf internasional dimulai sejak berubahnya sistem pendidikan di Pondok Modern Arrisalah yaitu tahun 1995 hingga peresmian Yayasan Pondok Modern Arrisalah di tahun 2009. Peranan KH. Moh. Ma’shum Yusuf dalam mengembangkan Pondok Modern Arrisalah Ponorogo yaitu melakukan kerja sama dengan Pondok Modern Gontor Ponorogo, meningkatkan kualitas pendidik dengan jalur pengkaderan dan mengembangkan kegiatan perekonomian guna memenuhi kebutuhan pondok serta pembangunan sarana prasarana pondok. Kata Kunci: Peranan, KH. Moh. Ma’shum Yusuf, Pondok Modern Arrisalah

COLLECTION 0118: Wayfarers Ministry Newsletters of Betty Ann Wagner, 1982-2009

Wayfarers Ministry was founded in 1979 by Betty Ann Wagner. This is a collection of her newsletters, called Wayfarers Ministy newsletter, or Monthly Report Letters, 1982-2009. The collection documents Wayfarer’s Ministries founded by Betty Wagner. Wagner worked with Bob Pierce when he started Samaritan\u27s Purse. After Pierce’s death, she started Wayfarer\u27s Ministries. Wayfarer’s was created to help with small needs overlooked by the big organizations. Many Fuller Theological Seminary students, especially international students who needed assistance with rent or groceries, were helped by the organization. Her long monthly newsletter contains lots of quotes from thanks filled letters after students had returned to the ministry outside North America

La estructura social ecuatoriana: 1982-2009

Artículo preparado para el Tomo 16 de la Nueva Historia Ecuatoriana, por publicarse.La exposición parte de una breve introducción sobre el cambio en las estrategias de desarrollo implementadas y sus efectos económicos, para concentrarse luego en las transformaciones sociales más importantes, con énfasis en empleo, desigualdad social, pobreza, y necesidades humanas como educación, nutrición, salud y vivienda. Se analizan también fenómenos específicos como la crisis de fin de siglo, la dolarización y la masiva migración internacional. A partir de esta visión, se integra un análisis sobre las transformaciones más importantes en los sectores dominantes y subalternos en el último cuarto de siglo, para concluir con una reflexión sobre la crisis actual del paradigma neoliberal y la transición hacia un nuevo escenario, iniciada en 2006 con la elección del presidente Correa y la nueva constitución de 2008, hechos que en caso de consolidarse, podrían marcar el fin del período neoliberal en el país

Comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling methods for seasonal-scale winter precipitation predictions over north India

The main aim of the present study is to analyse the capabilities of two downscaling approaches (statistical and dynamical) in predicting wintertime seasonal precipitation over north India. For this purpose, a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) based statistical downscaling approach and dynamical downscaling approach (at 30 km) with an optimized configuration of the regional climate model (RegCM) nested in coarse resolution global spectral model have been used for a period of 28 years (1982–2009). For CCA, nine predictors (precipitation, zonal and meridional winds at 850 and 200 hPa, temperature at 200 hPa and sea surface temperatures) over three different domains were selected. The predictors were chosen based on the statistically significant teleconnection maps and physically based relationships between precipitation over the study region and meteorological variables. The validation revealed that both the downscaling approaches provided improved precipitation forecasts compared to the global model. Reasons for improved prediction by downscaling techniques have been examined. The improvement mainly comes due to better representation of orography, westerly moisture transport and vertical pressure velocity in the regional climate model. Furthermore, two bias correction methods namely quantile mapping (QM) and mean bias-remove (MBR) have been applied on downscaled RegCM, statistically downscaled CCA as well as the global model products. It was found that when the QM-based bias correction is applied on dynamically downscaled RegCM products, it has better skill in predicting wintertime precipitation over the study region compared to the CCA-based statistical downscaling. Overall, the results indicate that the QM-based bias-corrected downscaled RegCM model is a useful tool for wintertime seasonal-scale precipitation prediction over north India.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Cross-border acquisitions and financial leverage of UK acquirers

Based on a sample of 782 acquisitions by UK firms during 1982-2009, this paper examines the impact of cross-border acquisitions on financial leverage. The paper shows that cross-border acquisitions have a negative impact on the financial leverage of acquiring firms. However, the negative impact of cross-border acquisitions disappears when acquirers choose targets from developed countries, and also when the acquisitions are undertaken by multinational firms. Collectively, the findings imply that exposure to foreign markets reduces the borrowing ability of acquiring firms especially when they choose targets from developing countries, and when they have no previous experience in foreign markets