Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo's orang-utans

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang-utan, we identify environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models incorporating only land-cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm – a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate that in 2010 up to 260 000 km2 of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang-utan range; an 18–24% reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15–30% by the 2080s. Although habitat extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in northeastern and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but 74% when also considering land-cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000–42 000 km2 depending on thresholds used, with 900–17 000 km2 outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could mediate some orang-utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental changes expected this century

Quantitative analysis of macroevolutionary patterning in technological evolution: Bicycle design from 1800 to 2000

Book description: This volume offers an integrative approach to the application of evolutionary theory in studies of cultural transmission and social evolution and reveals the enormous range of ways in which Darwinian ideas can lead to productive empirical research, the touchstone of any worthwhile theoretical perspective. While many recent works on cultural evolution adopt a specific theoretical framework, such as dual inheritance theory or human behavioral ecology, Pattern and Process in Cultural Evolution emphasizes empirical analysis and includes authors who employ a range of backgrounds and methods to address aspects of culture from an evolutionary perspective. Editor Stephen Shennan has assembled archaeologists, evolutionary theorists, and ethnographers, whose essays cover a broad range of time periods, localities, cultural groups, and artifacts

Phylogenetic relationships of African Caecilians (Amphibia: Gymnophiona): insights from mitochondrial rRNA gene sequences

Africa (excluding the Seychelles) has a diverse caecilian fauna, including the endemic family Scolecomorphidae and six endemic genera of the more cosmopolitan Caeciliidae. Previous molecular phylogenetic studies have not included any caecilians from the African mainland. Partial 12S and 16S mitochondrial gene sequences were obtained for two species of the endemic African Scolecomorphidae and five species and four genera of African Caeciliids, aligned against previously reported sequences for 16 caecilian species, and analysed using parsimony, maximum likelihood, Bayesian and distance methods. Results are in agreement with traditional taxonomy in providing support for the monophyly of the African Caeciliid genera Boulengerula and Schistometopum and for the Scolecomorphidae. They disagree in indicating that the Caeciliidae is paraphyletic with respect to the Scolecomorphidae. Although more data from morphology and/or molecules will be required to resolve details of the interrelationships of the African caecilian genera, the data provide strong support for at least two origins of caecilians in which the eye is reduced and covered with bone, and do not support the hypotheses that the caecilian assemblages of Africa, and of East and of West Africa are monophyletic

Biologically informed ecological niche models for an example pelagic, highly mobile species

Background: Although pelagic seabirds are broadly recognised as indicators of the health of marine systems, numerous gaps exist in knowledge of their at-sea distributions at the species level. These gaps have profound negative impacts on the robustness of marine conservation policies. Correlative modelling techniques have provided some information, but few studies have explored model development for non-breeding pelagic seabirds. Here, I present a first phase in developing robust niche models for highly mobile species as a baseline for further development.Methodology: Using observational data from a 12-year time period, 217 unique model parameterisations across three correlative modelling algorithms (boosted regression trees, Maxent and minimum volume ellipsoids) were tested in a time-averaged approach for their ability to recreate the at-sea distribution of non-breeding Wandering Albatrosses (Diomedea exulans) to provide a baseline for further development.Principle Findings/Results: Overall, minimum volume ellipsoids outperformed both boosted regression trees and Maxent. However, whilst the latter two algorithms generally overfit the data, minimum volume ellipsoids tended to underfit the data. Conclusions: The results of this exercise suggest a necessary evolution in how correlative modelling for highly mobile species such as pelagic seabirds should be approached. These insights are crucial for understanding seabird–environment interactions at macroscales, which can facilitate the ability to address population declines and inform effective marine conservation policy in the wake of rapid global change

Late Miocene to early Pliocene biofacies of Wanganui and Taranaki Basins, New Zealand: Applications to paleoenvironmental and sequence stratigraphic analysis

The Matemateaonga Formation is late Miocene to early Pliocene (upper Tongaporutuan to lower Opoitian New Zealand Stages) in age. The formation comprises chiefly shellbeds, siliciclastic sandstone, and siltstone units and to a lesser extent non-marine and shallow marine conglomerate and rare paralic facies. The Matemateaonga Formation accumulated chiefly in shelf paleoenvironments during basement onlap and progradation of a late Miocene to early Pliocene continental margin wedge in the Wanganui and Taranaki Basins. The formation is strongly cyclothemic, being characterised by recurrent vertically stacked facies successions, bounded by sequence boundaries. These facies accumulated in a range of shoreface to mid-outer shelf paleoenvironments during conditions of successively oscillating sea level. This sequential repetition of facies and the biofacies they enclose are the result of sixth-order glacio-eustatic cyclicity. Macrofaunal associations have been identified from statistical analysis of macrofossil occurrences collected from multiple sequences. Each association is restricted to particular lithofacies and stratal positions and shows a consistent order and/or position within the sequences. This pattern of temporal paleoecologic change appears to be the result of lateral, facies-related shifting of broad biofacies belts, or habitat-tracking, in response to fluctuations of relative sea level, sediment flux, and other associated paleoenvironmental variables. The associations also show strong similarity in terms of their generic composition to biofacies identified in younger sedimentary strata and the modern marine benthic environment in New Zealand

Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climate

Responses of biota to climate change take a number of forms including distributional shifts, behavioural changes and life history changes. This study examined an extensive set of biological records to investigate changes in the timing of life history transitions (specifically emergence) in British Odonata between 1960 and 2004. The results show that there has been a significant, consistent advance in phenology in the taxon as a whole over the period of warming that is mediated by life history traits. British odonates significantly advanced the leading edge (first quartile date) of the flight period by a mean of 1.51 ±0.060 (SEM, n=17) days per decade or 3.08±1.16 (SEM, n=17) days per degree rise in temperature when phylogeny is controlled for. This study represents the first review of changes in odonate phenology in relation to climate change. The results suggest that the damped temperature oscillations experienced by aquatic organisms compared with terrestrial organisms are sufficient to evoke phenological responses similar to those of purely terrestrial taxa

Does hybridization between divergent progenitors drive whole-genome duplication?

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: BUGGS, R. J. A., SOLTIS, P. S. and SOLTIS, D. E. (2009), Does hybridization between divergent progenitors drive whole-genome duplication?. Molecular Ecology, 18: 3334–3339, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2009.04285.x This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving