The spatial-temporal patterns of Asian summer monsoon precipitation in response to Holocene insolation change: a model-data synthesis

Highlights: • Slice and transient simulations of Holocene climate change were performed. • Spatial–temporal patterns of Holocene Asian summer precipitation are investigated. • A tripole pattern of summer precipitation can be seen over monsoonal Asia. • Insolation change is a key factor for Holocene Asian summer monsoon change. • Internal feedbacks are important to Holocene Asian summer precipitation changes. Abstract: Paleoclimate proxy records of precipitation/effective moisture show spatial–temporal inhomogeneous over Asian monsoon and monsoon marginal regions during the Holocene. To investigate the spatial differences and diverging temporal evolution over monsoonal Asia and monsoon marginal regions, we conduct a series of numerical experiments with an atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled climate model, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), for the period of Holocene from 9.5 ka BP to present (0 ka BP). The simulations include two time-slice equilibrium experiments for early Holocene (9.5 ka BP) and present-day (0 ka BP), respectively and one transient simulation (HT) using a scheme for model acceleration regarding to the Earth's orbitally driven insolation forcing for the whole period of Holocene (from 9.5 to 0 ka BP). The simulated summer precipitation in the equilibrium experiments shows a tripole pattern over monsoonal Asia as depicted by the first modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of H0K and H9K. The transient simulation HT exhibits a wave train pattern in the summer precipitation across the Asian monsoon region associated with a gradually decreased trend in the strength of Asian summer monsoon, as a result of the response of Asian summer monsoon system to the Holocene orbitally-forced insolation change. Both the synthesis of multi-proxy records and model experiments confirm the regional dissimilarity of the Holocene optimum precipitation/effective moisture over the East Asian summer monsoon region, monsoon marginal region, and the westerly-dominated areas, suggesting the complex response of the regional climate systems to Holocene insolation change in association with the internal feedbacks within climate system, such as the air-sea interactions associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the evolution of Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US

Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America : a multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 8052–8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25°W–107.75°W, 30°N–35.25°N—NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.NOAA. Grant Number: NA11OAR4310166, NSF. Grant Number: AGS-12432042016-02-1

Statistical downscaling of summer precipitation in Colombia

Ponencia presentada en: IX Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Almería entre el 28 y el 30 de octubre de 2014.[ES]In this study an statistical downscaling (SD) model using principal component regression (PCR) for simulating summer precipitation in Colombia during the period 1950-2005, has been build, and the climate projections during the 2071-2100 period by applying the obtained SD model have been obtained. For these ends the PCs of the SLP reanalysis data from NCEP were used as predictor variables and the observed gridded summer precipitation as predictand variables. The period 1950-1993 was utilized for calibration and 1994-2010 for validation. The Bootstrap with replacement was applied to provide estimations of the statistical errors. All models perform reasonably well at the regional scales, and the spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between predicted and observed gridded precipitation values show high values (between 0.5 and 0.93) along Andes range, north and north Pacific of Colombia.[EN]En este trabajo se ha construido un modelo de downscaling estadístico (DS) usando el método de regresión de componentes principales (PCR) para simular la precipitación de verano en Colombia durante el periodo 1950-2005, y se han obtenido sus proyecciones durante el periodo 2071-2100 aplicando el modelo obtenido. Para ello, se han usado las PCs de los datos de SLP de reanálisis del NCEP como variables predictoras y las series de precipitación observada en cada punto de rejilla como predictando. El periodo 1950-1993 ha sido utilizado para calibración y el 1994-2010 para validación. Para proporcionar estimaciones del error estadístico, se ha aplicado el método de Bootstrap con reemplazo. Todos los modelos representan razonablemente bien la precipitación a escala regional, y la distribución espacial de los coeficientes de correlación entre las series de valores predichos y observados en rejilla, muestra altos valores (entre 0.5 y 0.93) a lo largo de la cadena de los Andes, norte y Pacífico norte de Colombia.The Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, with additional support from the European Community Funds (FEDER), project CGL2010-21188/CLI and the Regional Government of Andalusia, project P11-RNM-7941, which had financed this study

Is evapotranspiration more supplied by summer precipitation or winter precipitation: understanding precipitation sources of terrestrial water use and their variations across wetter and drier years and distinct eco-climatological regions

Abstract 1:The impacts of changing precipitation regimes on the contributions of different seasons’ precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET) versus runoff is not well known because empirical insights are scarce. However, such insights are important for improving model predictions of future water-resource availability and ecosystem responses to summer and winter droughts. Here we use using long-term measurements of fluxes and isotope ratios (δ18O) in runoff and precipitation to calculate the partitioning of seasonal precipitation between ET and runoff, using an end-member mixing and splitting framework and focusing on effects of wetter versus drier summers and winters. We hypothesized that drier summers would involve carryover of winter precipitation to mitigate shortages, but related findings were partially indeterminate. However, we did find increases in winter precipitation across a 500-mm range involved the fraction of ET from summer precipitation decreasing from 100% (within error) and the fraction of winter precipitation contributing to ET increasing from 0% (within error) to 21%. Although there were substantial uncertainties in the trends we identified, we expect that the novel approach used here could be a useful framework for understanding the sensitivity of ET partitioning to climatic change, especially where precipitation δ18O varies substantially between seasons.Abstract 2: To understand how changing patterns of seasonal precipitation inputs may affect ecosystems and water resources, we need to know how precipitation from different seasons travels through landscapes and contributes to runoff versus evapotranspiration (ET). In this study, we use stable isotope data measured in the National Ecology Observation Network (NEON) aquatic sites to quantify the partitioning of winter and summer precipitation into runoff and ET. Across the 23 watersheds, ranging in size from 1.1 to 47,000 km2, we found the fraction of summer precipitation routed to ET ranged from 0.13 to 1.00, which coincided with the fraction of ET composed of summer precipitation ranging from 0.04 to 0.76 (readers should note these ranges do not include implausible values generated for 4 sites where the available data were insufficient to constrain uncertainties). To identify factors that influence seasonal precipitation partitioning, a stepwise regression was used with a set of potential predictor variables related to topography, climate, and vegetation. Although many individual variables proved to be significant correlates, 83 % of the variation in the fraction of summer precipitation routed to ET was estimated by a 4-term model using chlorophyll carotenoid index (CCI) variability, mean annual precipitation, and enhanced vegetation indices (EVI) metrics. The fraction of ET sourced from summer precipitation was estimated by the ratio of summer precipitation to annual precipitation and minimum EVI. This is the first cross-site study on seasonal precipitation partitioning, and thus the findings here advance our fundamental understanding of how precipitation is routed to ET versus runoff in differing landscapes

El Niño-related summer precipitation anomalies in Southeast Asia modulated by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

AbstractHow the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) affects El Niño-related signals in Southeast Asia is investigated in this study on a subseasonal scale. Based on observational and reanalysis data, as well as numerical model simulations, El Niño-related precipitation anomalies are analyzed for AMO positive and negative phases, which reveals a time-dependent modulation of the AMO: (i) In May?June, the AMO influences the precipitation in Southern China (SC) and the Indochina peninsula (ICP) by modulating the El Niño-related air-sea interaction over the western North Pacific (WNP). During negative AMO phases, cold sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the WNP favor the maintaining of the WNP anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC). The associated southerly (westerly) anomalies on the northwest (southwest) flank of the WNPAC enhance (reduce) the climatological moisture transport to SC (the ICP) and result in wetter (drier) than normal conditions. In contrast, during positive AMO phases, weak SSTAs over the WNP lead to limited influence of El Niño on precipitation in Southeast Asia. (ii) In July?August, the teleconnection impact from the North Atlantic is more manifest than that in May?June. During positive AMO phases, the warmer than normal North Atlantic favors anomalous wave trains, which propagate along the ?great circle route? and result in positive pressure anomalies over SC, consequently suppressing precipitation in SC and the ICP. During negative AMO phases, the anomalous wave trains tend to propagate eastward from Europe to Northeast Asia along the summer Asian jet, exerting limited influence on Southeast Asia

Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals

Citation: Ahlers, A. A., Cotner, L. A., Wolff, P. J., Mitchell, M. A., Heske, E. J., & Schooley, R. L. (2015). Summer Precipitation Predicts Spatial Distributions of Semiaquatic Mammals. Plos One, 10(8), 14. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0135036Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of droughts and intensity of seasonal precipitation in many regions. Semiaquatic mammals should be vulnerable to this increased variability in precipitation, especially in human-modified landscapes where dispersal to suitable habitat or temporary refugia may be limited. Using six years of presence-absence data (2007-2012) spanning years of record-breaking drought and flood conditions, we evaluated regional occupancy dynamics of American mink (Neovison vison) and muskrats (Ondatra zibethicus) in a highly altered agroecosystem in Illinois, USA. We used noninvasive sign surveys and a multiseason occupancy modeling approach to estimate annual occupancy rates for both species and related these rates to summer precipitation. We also tracked radiomarked individuals to assess mortality risk for both species when moving in terrestrial areas. Annual model-averaged estimates of occupancy for mink and muskrat were correlated positively to summer precipitation. Mink and muskrats were widespread during a year (2008) with above-average precipitation. However, estimates of site occupancy declined substantially for mink (0.56) and especially muskrats (0.09) during the severe drought of 2012. Mink are generalist predators that probably use terrestrial habitat during droughts. However, mink had substantially greater risk of mortality away from streams. In comparison, muskrats are more restricted to aquatic habitats and likely suffered high mortality during the drought. Our patterns are striking, but a more mechanistic understanding is needed of how semiaquatic species in human-modified ecosystems will respond ecologically in situ to extreme weather events predicted by climate-change models

Changes in plant species richness distribution in Tibetan alpine grasslands under different precipitation scenarios

Species richness is the core of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) research. Nevertheless, it is difficult to accurately predict changes in plant species richness under different climate scenarios, especially in alpine biomes. In this study, we surveyed plant species richness from 2009 to 2017 in 75 alpine meadows (AM), 199 alpine steppes (AS), and 71 desert steppes (DS) in the Tibetan Autonomous Region, China. Along with 20 environmental factors relevant to species settlement, development, and survival, we first simulated the spatial pattern of plant species richness under current climate conditions using random forest modelling. Our results showed that simulated species richness matched well with observed values in the field, showing an evident decrease from meadows to steppes and then to deserts. Summer precipitation, which ranked first among the 20 environmental factors, was further confirmed to be the most critical driver of species richness distribution. Next, we simulated and compared species richness patterns under four different precipitation scenarios, increasing and decreasing summer precipitation by 20% and 10%, relative to the current species richness pattern. Our findings showed that species richness in response to altered precipitation was grassland-type specific, with meadows being sensitive to decreasing precipitation, steppes being sensitive to increasing precipitation, and deserts remaining resistant. In addition, species richness at low elevations was more sensitive to decreasing precipitation than to increasing precipitation, implying that droughts might have stronger influences than wetting on species composition. In contrast, species richness at high elevations (also in deserts) changed slightly under different precipitation scenarios, likely due to harsh physical conditions and small species pools for plant recruitment and survival. Finally, we suggest that policymakers and herdsmen pay more attention to alpine grasslands in central Tibet and at low elevations where species richness is sensitive to precipitation changes

Permafrost hydrology in changing climatic conditions: seasonal variability of stable isotope composition in rivers in discontinuous permafrost

Role of changing climatic conditions on permafrost degradation and hydrology was investigated in the transition zone between the tundra and forest ecotones at the boundary of continuous and discontinuous permafrost of the lower Yenisei River. Three watersheds of various sizes were chosen to represent the characteristics of the regional landscape conditions. Samples of river flow, precipitation, snow cover, and permafrost ground ice were collected over the watersheds to determine isotopic composition of potential sources of water in a river flow over a two year period. Increases in air temperature over the last forty years have resulted in permafrost degradation and a decrease in the seasonal frost which is evident from soil temperature measurements, permafrost and active-layer monitoring, and analysis of satellite imagery. The lowering of the permafrost table has led to an increased storage capacity of permafrost affected soils and a higher contribution of ground water to river discharge during winter months. A progressive decrease in the thickness of the layer of seasonal freezing allows more water storage and pathways for water during the winter low period making winter discharge dependent on the timing and amount of late summer precipitation. There is a substantial seasonal variability of stable isotopic composition of river flow. Spring flooding corresponds to the isotopic composition of snow cover prior to the snowmelt. Isotopic composition of river flow during the summer period follows the variability of precipitation in smaller creeks, while the water flow of larger watersheds is influenced by the secondary evaporation of water temporarily stored in thermokarst lakes and bogs. Late summer precipitation determines the isotopic composition of texture ice within the active layer in tundra landscapes and the seasonal freezing layer in forested landscapes as well as the composition of the water flow during winter months

Suppression of south Asian summer monsoon precipitation in the 21st century

We used a high-resolution nested climate modeling system to investigate the response of South Asian summer monsoon dynamics to anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. The simulated dynamical features of the summer monsoon compared well with reanalysis data and observations. Further, we found that enhanced greenhouse forcing resulted in overall suppression of summer precipitation, a delay in monsoon onset, and an increase in the occurrence of monsoon break periods. Weakening of the large-scale monsoon flow and suppression of the dominant intraseasonal oscillatory modes were instrumental in the overall weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon. Such changes in monsoon dynamics could have substantial impacts by decreasing summer precipitation in key areas of South Asia