The Influence of Weather on Mortality in Rural Tanzania: A Time-Series Analysis 1999�-2010

Weather and climate changes are associated with a number of immediate and long-term impacts on human health that occur directly or indirectly, through mediating variables. Few studies to date have established the empirical relationship between monthly weather and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. The objectives of this study were to assess the association between monthly weather (temperature and rainfall) on all-cause mortality by age in Rufiji, Tanzania, and to determine the differential susceptibility by age groups. We used mortality data from Rufiji Health and Demographic Surveillance System (RHDSS) for\ud the period 1999 to 2010. Time-series Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between monthly weather and mortality adjusted for long-term trends. We used a distributed lag model to estimate the delayed association of monthly weather on mortality. We stratified the analyses per age group to assess susceptibility. In general, rainfall was found to have a stronger association in the age group 0_4 years (RR_1.001, 95% CI_0.961_1.041) in both short and long lag times, with an overall increase of 1.4% in mortality risk for a 10 mm rise in rainfall. On the other hand, monthly average temperature had a stronger association with death in all ages while mortality increased with falling monthly temperature. The association per age group was estimated as: age group 0_4 (RR_0.934, 95% CI_0.894_0.974), age group 5_59 (RR_0.956, 95% CI_ 0.928_0.985) and age group over 60 (RR_0.946, 95% CI_0.912_0.979). The age group 5_59 experienced more delayed lag associations. This suggests that children and older adults are most sensitive to weather related mortality. These results suggest that an early alert system based on monthly weather information may be useful for disease control management, to reduce and prevent fatal effects related to weather and monthly weather.\u

Az antioxidánsok és a poli(ADP-ribóz) polimeráz szerepe a gabonafélék abiotikus stresszek által indukált öregedésében = Role of antioxidants and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase in senescence of cereals induced by abiotic stresses

Az OTKA pályázat keretében azt vizsgáltuk, hogy a különböző antioxidánsok és a poli(ADP-ribóz) polimeráz (PARP) milyen szerepet töltenek be az abiotikus stresszek által előidézett öregedési folyamatokban. Egy hidegtűrő és egy hidegérzékeny kukoricagenotípust különböző abiotikus stresszhatásoknak (extrém hőmérsékletek, ozmotikus stressz) kitéve jelentős különbségeket találtunk a glutation és prekurzorai összmennyiségében és redox állapotában, valamint a thioredoxin h szintjében. Ha e két kukoricagenotípusban a sötétben történő neveléssel idéztük elő az öregedést, a glutation koncentrációjában és oxidáltságánk fokában, valamint a PARP gén expressziójában és a fehérje mennyiségében nagy eltéréseket figyeltünk meg a normál megvilágításban nevelt növényekhez képest. Búza kromoszóma szubsztitúciós vonalakat felhasználva megállapítottuk, hogy azok a gének, melyek a glutation szintézisét és redox állapotát az ozmotikus és a hőstressz során befolyásolják, az 5A kromoszómán találhatók. Transzkriptom-analízissel ki tudtuk mutatni, hogy ez a kromoszóma az antioxidánsok közül a glutation S-transzferáz génjének hideg-indukálta expressziós változásaira is hatással van. Az antioxidánsok és a PARP stresszválaszban és a stressz által előidézett öregedésben betöltött szerepére további bizonyítékokat szereztünk, amikor e vegyületeket olyan növényekben tanulmányoztuk, melyeket különböző gátlószerekkel és növekedésszabályozókkal kezeltünk. | The role of the different antioxidants and poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) in the senescence induced by different abiotic stresses was investigated. Subjecting a chilling-tolerant and a chilling-sensitive maize genotype to various abiotic stresses (extreme temperatures, osmotic stress), a great difference was found in the total amount and redox state of glutathione and its precursors and in the concentration of thioredoxin h. If the senescence of these two maize genotypes was induced by cultivation in the continuous dark, a great difference was found in the concentration and redox state of glutathione, in the expression of PARP gene and in the amount of PARP protein compared to the plants grown under normal illumination. Using wheat chromosome substitution lines it was found, that the genes affecting the glutathione synthesis and its redox state during the osmotic and heat stresses are localised on the chromosome 5A. It was shown by transcript profiling that this chromosome also influences from the antioxidants? genes the cold-induced expression changes of the glutathione S-transferase gene. Further evidence for the role of antioxidants and PARP in the stress response and stress-induced senescence was obtained by investigation of these compounds in plants treated with different inhibitors and growth regulators

Soil carbon monitoring using surveys and modelling. General description and application in the United Republic of Tanzania

This publication describes the application of survey- and modelling-based methods for monitoring soil organic carbon stock and its changes on a national scale. The report presents i) a design of the first inventory of soil organic carbon, including discussion on factors that affect the reliability of carbon stock estimates; and ii) a design of a modelling-based approach, including links to national forest inventory data and discussion on alternative soil organic carbon models. Both approaches can provide necessary information on soil carbon changes for a national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory. Forest soils constitute a large pool of carbon and releases of carbon from this pool, caused by anthropogenic activities such as deforestation and forest degradation, may significantly increase the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere. Therefore, estimating and reducing emissions from these activities have become timely issues. Currently, reliable estimates of soil organic carbon stock and stock changes are needed for REDO (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) and GHG reporting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).The document is available in print formMinistry for foreign affairs of Finlan

The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania and uses socioeconomic data to control for the impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. The results show a significant relationship between temperature and the incidence of cholera. For a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase the initial relative risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates on financing and planning adaptation

Selection of provenances to adapt tropical pine forestry to climate change on the basis of climate analogs

Pinus patula and Pinus tecunumanii play an important role in the forestry sector in the tropics and subtropics and, in recent decades, members of the International Tree Breeding and Conservation Program (Camcore) at North Carolina State University have established large, multi-site provenance trials for these pine species. The data collected in these trials provide valuable information about species and provenance choice for plantation establishment in many regions with different climates. Since climate is changing rapidly, it may become increasingly difficult to choose the right species and provenance to plant. In this study, growth performance of plantings in Colombia, Brazil and South Africa was correlated to the degree of climatic dissimilarity between planting sites. Results are used to assess the suitability of seed material under a changing climate for four P. patula provenances and six P. tecunumanii provenances. For each provenance, climate dissimilarities based on standardized Euclidean distances were calculated and statistically related to growth performances. We evaluated the two methods of quantifying climate dissimilarity with extensive field data based on the goodness of fit and statistical significance of the climate distance relation to differences in height growth. The best method was then used as a predictor of a provenance change in height growth. The provenance-specific models were used to predict provenance performance under different climate change scenarios. The developed provenance-specific models were able to significantly relate climate similarity to different growth performances for five out of six P. tecunumanii provenances. For P. patula provenances, we did not find any correlation. Results point towards the importance of the identification of sites with stable climates where high yields are achievable. In such sites, fast-growing P. tecunumanii provenances with a high but narrow growth optimum can be planted. At sites with climate change of uncertain direction and magnitude, the choice of P. patula provenances, with greater tolerance towards different temperature and precipitation regimes, is recommended. Our results indicate that the analysis of provenance trial data with climate similarity models helps us to (1) maintain plantation productivity in a rapidly changing environment; and (2) improve our understanding of tree species’ adaptation to a changing climate

Human energy requirements in Jatropha oil production for rural electrification in Tanzania

AbstractMini-grids connecting households to a generator can be a solution for providing rural communities in developing countries with electricity. Substituting diesel with locally produced Jatropha oil can improve economic and environmental sustainability of rural electrification. Jatropha is known as a labor intensive crop, but little is known about how inclusion of human energy input will affect the energy balance of production of Jatropha oil. In this study we investigate human labor requirements in rural electrification with Jatropha oil. Jatropha in this study in Tanzania was grown as living fences and provided multiple benefits. An energy flow chart of generation of electricity from Jatropha oil is presented, and it is shown that human energy expenditure in production of Jatropha oil is small relative to the overall energy in the system. Time consumption however is extensive, and 7.5hour work is required to harvest and de-hull Jatropha fruit equivalent to 1kg Jatropha oil. 1kg Jatropha oil can in turn provide the community with 2.5kWh electricity through a Multi Functional Platform connected to a local grid. Potential income from harvesting Jatropha is considered so low in the study area that farmers are reluctant to venture into it. Poorer people and children in the community are allowed by the farmers to harvest for free. Collection of seeds for Jatropha oil depends on the availability of labor willing to work for an income of approximately 0.9USD/day. Social and economic sustainability of rural electrification based on Jatropha oil can be enhanced through generous subsidy

Infective mitral valve myxoma with coronary artery embolization: Surgical intervention followed by prolonged survival

Mauyaetal.CarbonBalanceandManagement (2015) 10:10 DOI 10.1186/s13021-015-0021-x © 2015 Mauya et al.; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.Background: Airborne laser scanning (ALS) has recently emerged as a promising tool to acquire auxiliary information for improving aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in sample-based forest inventories. Under design-based and model-assisted inferential frameworks, the estimation relies on a model that relates the auxiliary ALS metrics to AGB estimated on ground plots. The size of the field plots has been identified as one source of model uncertainty because of the so-called boundary effects which increases with decreasing plot size. Recent re- search in tropical forests has aimed to quantify the boundary effects on model prediction accuracy, but evidence of the consequences for the final AGB estimates is lacking. In this study we analyzed the effect of field plot size on model prediction accuracy and its implication when used in a model-assisted inferential framework. Results: The results showed that the prediction accuracy of the model improved as the plot size increased. The adjusted R 2 increased from 0.35 to 0.74 while the relative root mean square error decreased from 63.6 to 29.2%. Indicators of boundary effects were identified and confirmed to have significant effects on the model residuals. Variance estimates of model-assisted mean AGB relative to corresponding variance estimates of pure field-based AGB, decreased with increasing plot size in the range from 200 to 3000 m 2 . The variance ratio of field-based esti- mates relative to model-assisted variance ranged from 1.7 to 7.7. Conclusions: This study showed that the relative improvement in precision of AGB estimation when increasing field-plot size, was greater for an ALS-assisted inventory compared to that of a pure field-based inventory

Can REDD+ reconcile local priorities and needs with global mitigation benefits? lessons from Angai Forest, Tanzania

The scope of the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) mechanism has broadened REDD+ to accommodate different country interests such as natural forests, protected areas, as well as forests under community-based management. In Tanzania the REDD+ mechanism is still under development and pilot projects are at an early stage. In this paper, we seek to understand how local priorities and needs could be met in REDD+ implementation and how these expectations match with global mitigation benefits. We examine the local priorities and needs in the use of land and forest resources in the Angai Villages Land Forest Reserve (AVLFR) in the Liwale District of Lindi Region in Tanzania. Primary data was collected in two villages, Mihumo and Lilombe, using semistructured key informant interviews and participatory rural appraisal methods. In addition, the key informant interviews were conducted with other village, district, and national level actors, as well as international donors. Findings show that in the two communities REDD+ is seen as something new and is generating new expectations among communities. However, the Angai villagers highlight three key priorities that have yet to be integrated into the design of REDD+: water scarcity, rural development, and food security. At the local level improved forest governance and sustainable management of forest resources have been identified as one way to achieve livelihood diversification. Although the national goals of REDD+ include poverty reduction, these goals are not necessarily conducive to the goals of these communities. There exist both structural and cultural limits to the ability of the Angai villages to implement these goals and to improve forestry governance. Given the vulnerability to current and future climate variability and change it will be important to consider how the AVLFR will be managed and for whose benefit

The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

Increased temperatures and changes in patterns of rainfall as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail serious consequences for human health, including the risk of diarrheal diseases. Indeed, there is strong evidence that temperature and rainfall patterns affect the disease pattern. This paper presents the first study that links the incidence of cholera to environmental and socioeconomic factors and uses that relationship to predict how climate change will affect the incidence of cholera. Specifically, the paper integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania, and uses socioeconomic data to control for impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. Based on these results we estimate the number and costs of additional cholera cases and deaths that can be attributed to climate change by year 2030 in Tanzania. The analyses are based on primary data collected from the Ministry of Health, Tanzania, and the Tanzania Meteorological Agency. The result shows a significant relationship between cholera cases and temperature and predicts an increase in the initial risk ratio for cholera in Tanzania in the range of 23 to 51 percent for a 1 degree Celsius increase in annual mean temperature. The cost of reactive adaptation to cholera attributed to climate change impacts by year 2030 in Tanzania is projected to be in the range of 0.02 to 0.09 percent of GDP for the lower and upper bounds respectively. Total costs, including loss of lives are estimated in the range of 1.4 to 7.8 percent of GDP by year 2030. Lastly, costs of additional cholera cases and deaths attributed to climate change impacts in Tanzania by the year 2030 largely exceed the costs of preventive measures such as household chlorination.Available at http://www.bc3research.or

Climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives for agriculture in East Africa

National governments across East Africa are in the process of formulating and implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies to assist farmers cope with climate change. These include formulating actions, frameworks and programs to address climate change and embedding these within the long-term national development plans. This working paper provides understanding of the current state of national climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda for agriculture and provides baseline information for subsequent assessments of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In each country, specific government departments such as Environmental Protection Authority (Ethiopia), Ministry of Environment, Water and Mineral Resources (Kenya), Vice President‘s Office (Tanzania) and Ministry of Water and Environment (Uganda) are mandated to coordinate climate change initiatives. In all countries, the Ministry of Agriculture is the focal point for all climate change initiatives related to agriculture. Agricultural Sector Development Plans that provide strategies to boost agricultural productivity and spur economic growth have been prepared either as standalone plans or as part of National Development Plans (NDP). Irrigation, capacity building, enhancing private-public partnership for market development, and creating legal and regulatory environment that can attract investments are some of the priority areas identified for attention in agriculture to enhance climate resilience