A multi-risk methodology for the assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones

Climate change threatens coastal areas, posing significant risks to natural and human systems, including coastal erosion and inundation. This paper presents a multi-risk approach integrating multiple climate-related hazards and exposure and vulnerability factors across different spatial units and temporal scales. The multi-hazard assessment employs an influence matrix to analyze the relationships among hazards (sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and storm surge) and their disjoint probability. The multi-vulnerability considers the susceptibility of the exposed receptors (wetlands, beaches, and urban areas) to different hazards based on multiple indicators (dunes, shoreline evolution, and urbanization rate). The methodology was applied in the North Adriatic coast, producing a ranking of multi-hazard risks by means of GIS maps and statistics. The results highlight that the higher multi-hazard score (meaning presence of all investigated hazards) is near the coastline while multi-vulnerability is relatively high in the whole case study, especially for beaches, wetlands, protected areas, and river mouths. The overall multi-risk score presents a trend similar to multi-hazard and shows that beaches is the receptor most affected by multiple risks (60% of surface in the higher multi-risk classes). Risk statistics were developed for coastal municipalities and local stakeholders to support the setting of adaptation priorities and coastal zone management plans

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards – Part 1: Physical–environmental assessment

Abstract. In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazards has increased, and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade, causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing in frequency as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in flood-prone area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the undeniable effect of climate change is projected to strongly modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events at the local, regional and global scale. Within this context, the need for developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow one to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threatens different relevant receptors becomes urgent. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). This paper is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to appraise the risk posed by floods from a physical–environmental perspective. The methodology, developed within the recently completed FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention – KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. plain rivers, mountain torrents, urban and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from catchment to the urban scale). The FD compliant KR-RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamic models with site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover, population density, economic activities etc.) to develop tailored risk indexes and GIS-based maps for each of the selected receptors (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritage) in the considered region. It further compares the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned and eventually implemented. As demonstrated in the companion paper (Part 2, Ronco et al., 2014), risk maps, along with related statistics, allow one to identify and classify, on a relative scale, areas at risk which are more likely to be affected by floods and support the development of strategic adaptation and prevention measures to minimizing flood impacts. In addition, the outcomes of the RRA can be eventually used for a further socio-economic assessment, considering the tangible and intangible costs as well as the human dimension of vulnerability

Controlling the risks of nano-enabled products through the life cycle: The case of nano copper oxide paint for wood protection and nano-pigments used in the automotive industry

The widespread use of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in consumer products and the overwhelming uncertainties in their ecological and human health risks have raised concerns regarding their safety among industries and regulators. There has been an ongoing debate over the past few decades on ways to overcome the challenges in assessing and mitigating nano-related risks, which has reached a phase of general consensus that nanotechnology innovation should be accompanied by the application of the precautionary principle and best practice risk management, even if the risk assessment uncertainties are large. We propose a quantitative methodology for selecting the optimal risk control strategy based on information about human health and ecological risks, efficacy of risk mitigation measures, cost and other contextual factors. The risk control (RC) methodology was developed in the European FP7 research project SUN and successfully demonstrated in two case studies involving real industrial nano-enabled products (NEPs): nano-scale copper oxide (CuO) and basic copper carbonate (Cu₂(OH)₂CO₃) used as antimicrobial and antifungal coatings and impregnations for the preservation of treated wood, and two nanoscale pigments used for colouring plastic automotive parts (i.e. red organic pigment and carbon black). The application of RC for human health risks showed that although nano-related risks could easily be controlled in automotive plastics case study with modifications in production technology or specific type of engineering controls, nano-related risks due to sanding and sawing copper oxide painted wood were non-acceptable in the use lifecycle stage and would need the identification of a more effective risk control strategy

Occupational risk of nano-biomaterials: Assessment of nano-enabled magnetite contrast agent using the BIORIMA Decision Support System

The assessment of the safety of nano-biomedical products for patients is an essential prerequisite for their market authorization. However, it is also required to ensure the safety of the workers who may be unintentionally exposed to the nano-biomaterials (NBMs) in these medical applications during their synthesis, formulation into products and end-of-life processing and also of the medical professionals (e.g., nurses, doctors, dentists) using the products for treating patients. There is only a handful of workplace risk assessments focussing on NBMs used in medical applications. Our goal is to contribute to increasing the knowledge in this area by assessing the occupational risks of magnetite (Fe3O4) nanoparticles coated with PLGA-b-PEG-COOH used as contrast agent in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) by applying the software-based Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed in the EU H2020 project BIORIMA. The occupational risk assessment was performed according to regulatory requirements and using state-of-the-art models for hazard and exposure assessment, which are part of the DSS. Exposure scenarios for each life cycle stage were developed using data from literature, inputs from partnering industries and results of a questionnaire distributed to healthcare professionals, i.e., physicians, nurses, technicians working with contrast agents for MRI. Exposure concentrations were obtained either from predictive exposure models or monitoring campaigns designed specifically for this study. Derived No-Effect Levels (DNELs) were calculated by means of the APROBA tool starting from in vivo hazard data from literature. The exposure estimates/measurements and the DNELs were used to perform probabilistic risk characterisation for the formulated exposure scenarios, including uncertainty analysis. The obtained results revealed negligible risks for workers along the life cycle of magnetite NBMs used as contrast agent for the diagnosis of tumour cells in all exposure scenarios except in one when risk is considered acceptable after the adoption of specific risk management measures. The study also demonstrated the added value of using the BIORIMA DSS for quantification and communication of occupational risks of nano-biomedical applications and the associated uncertainties

Observation of confined current ribbon in JET plasmas

we report the identification of a localised current structure inside the JET plasma. It is a field aligned closed helical ribbon, carrying current in the same direction as the background current profile (co-current), rotating toroidally with the ion velocity (co-rotating). It appears to be located at a flat spot in the plasma pressure profile, at the top of the pedestal. The structure appears spontaneously in low density, high rotation plasmas, and can last up to 1.4 s, a time comparable to a local resistive time. It considerably delays the appearance of the first ELM.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

First Plasma Operation of the Enhanced JET Vertical Stabilisation System First Plasma Operation of the Enhanced JET Vertical Stabilisation System

AbstrAct A project dedicated to the enhancement of the JET Vertical Stabilization system was launched in 2006, including an upgrade of the Power Supply of the Radial Field Amplifier, of hardware and software of the VS control system. The main aim was to double the JET capability in stabilising high current plasmas when subject to perturbations, in particular large Edge Localised Modes. We present here the results of first plasma operation with the new Enhanced Radial Field Amplifier and its data acquisition and control system, focussing on the benefits of an approach based on phased commissioning, modelling and offline algorithm validation

Multi-machine analysis of termination scenarios, providing the specifications for controlled shutdown of ITER discharges

The task is to show that the specific ITER design features allow a stable well-controlled termination. This is a joint effort in control, exception handling development and physics modelling. Relevant for ITER is to maintain vertical, radial position, and shape control during the termination, especially at the time of the relatively fast H-L transition. The analysis of a database, built using a selected set of experimental termination cases, is performed

Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET

A phase relationship is identified between sequential edge localized modes (ELMs) occurrence times in a set of H-mode tokamak plasmas to the voltage measured in full flux azimuthal loops in the divertor region. We focus on plasmas in the Joint European Torus where a steady H-mode is sustained over several seconds, during which ELMs are observed in the Be II emission at the divertor. The ELMs analysed arise from intrinsic ELMing, in that there is no deliberate intent to control the ELMing process by external means. We use ELM timings derived from the Be II signal to perform direct time domain analysis of the full flux loop VLD2 and VLD3 signals, which provide a high cadence global measurement proportional to the voltage induced by changes in poloidal magnetic flux. Specifically, we examine how the time interval between pairs of successive ELMs is linked to the time-evolving phase of the full flux loop signals. Each ELM produces a clear early pulse in the full flux loop signals, whose peak time is used to condition our analysis. The arrival time of the following ELM, relative to this pulse, is found to fall into one of two categories: (i) prompt ELMs, which are directly paced by the initial response seen in the flux loop signals; and (ii) all other ELMs, which occur after the initial response of the full flux loop signals has decayed in amplitude. The times at which ELMs in category (ii) occur, relative to the first ELM of the pair, are clustered at times when the instantaneous phase of the full flux loop signal is close to its value at the time of the first ELM