Constraints on the Geometry and Frictional Properties of the Main Himalayan Thrust Using Coseismic, Postseismic, and Interseismic Deformation in Nepal

The geometry and frictional properties of a fault system are key parameters required to understand its seismic behavior. The Main Himalayan Thrust in Nepal is the type example of a continental megathrust and forms part of a fault system which accommodates a significant fraction of India‐Eurasia convergence. Despite extensive study of this zone of shortening, the geometry of the fault system remains controversial. Here, we use interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic geodetic data in Nepal to investigate the proposed downdip geometries. We use interseismic and coseismic data from previous studies, acquired before and during the 2015 urn:x-wiley:jgrb:media:jgrb53987:jgrb53987-math-0001 7.8 Gorkha earthquake. We then supplement these by processing our own postseismic deformation data, acquired following the Gorkha earthquake. We find that kinematic modeling of geodetic data alone cannot easily distinguish between the previously proposed geometries. We therefore develop a mechanical joint coseismic‐postseismic slip inversion which simultaneously solves for the distribution of coseismic slip and rate‐strengthening friction parameters. We run this inversion using the proposed geometries and find that they are all capable of explaining the majority of geodetic data. We find values for the rate parameter, urn:x-wiley:jgrb:media:jgrb53987:jgrb53987-math-0002, from the rate‐and‐state friction law that are between 0.8 and urn:x-wiley:jgrb:media:jgrb53987:jgrb53987-math-0003, depending on the geometry used. These values are in agreement with results from laboratory studies and those inferred from other earthquakes. We suggest that the limitations of earthquake cycle geodesy partly explain the continued controversy over the geometry and role of various faults in the Nepal Himalaya

Fault mechanics and post-seismic deformation at Bam, SE Iran

The extent to which aseismic deformation relaxes co-seismic stress changes on a fault zone is fundamental to assessing the future seismic hazard following any earthquake, and in understanding the mechanical behaviour of faults. Here we use models of stress-driven afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation, in conjunction with post-seismic InSAR measurements, to show that there has been minimal release of co-seismic stress changes through post-seismic deformation following the 2003 $M_\text{w}$ 6.6 Bam earthquake. Our analysis indicates the faults at Bam remain predominantly locked, suggesting that the co- plus interseismically accumulated elastic strain stored downdip of the 2003 rupture patch may be released in a future $M_\text{w}$ 6 earthquake. Our observations and models also provide an opportunity to probe the growth of topography at Bam. We find that, for our modelled afterslip distribution to be consistent with forming the sharp step in the local topography over repeated earthquake cycles, and also to be consistent with the geodetic observations, requires either (1) far-field tectonic loading equivalent to a 2–10 MPa deviatoric stress acting across the fault system, which suggests it supports stresses 60–100 times less than classical views of static fault strength, or (2) that the fault surface has some form of mechanical anisotropy, potentially related to corrugations on the fault plane, that controls the sense of slip.This work forms part of the NERC- and ESRC-funded project ‘Earthquakes without Frontiers’, and was partly supported by the NERC large grant ‘Looking into the Continents from Space’. SW was partly supported by the BGS

IRAS 20050+2720: Anatomy of a young stellar cluster

IRAS 20050+2720 is young star forming region at a distance of 700 pc without apparent high mass stars. We present results of our multiwavelength study of IRAS 20050+2720 which includes observations by Chandra and Spitzer, and 2MASS and UBVRI photometry. In total, about 300 YSOs in different evolutionary stages are found. We characterize the distribution of young stellar objects (YSOs) in this region using a minimum spanning tree (MST) analysis. We newly identify a second cluster core, which consists mostly of class II objects, about 10 arcmin from the center of the cloud. YSOs of earlier evolutionary stages are more clustered than more evolved objects. The X-ray luminosity function (XLF) of IRAS 20050+2720 is roughly lognormal, but steeper than the XLF of the more massive Orion nebula complex. IRAS 20050+2720 shows a lower N_H/A_K ratio compared with the diffuse ISM.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, accepted by A

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Towards a global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network

There is overwhelming evidence that the climate system has warmed since the instigation of instrumental meteorological observations. The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that the evidence for warming was unequivocal. However, owing to imperfect measurements and ubiquitous changes in measurement networks and techniques, there remain uncertainties in many of the details of these historical changes. These uncertainties do not call into question the trend or overall magnitude of the changes in the global climate system. Rather, they act to make the picture less clear than it could be, particularly at the local scale where many decisions regarding adaptation choices will be required, both now and in the future. A set of high-quality long-term fiducial reference measurements of essential climate variables will enable future generations to make rigorous assessments of future climate change and variability, providing society with the best possible information to support future decisions. Here we propose that by implementing and maintaining a suitably stable and metrologically well-characterized global land surface climate fiducial reference measurements network, the present-day scientific community can bequeath to future generations a better set of observations. This will aid future adaptation decisions and help us to monitor and quantify the effectiveness of internationally agreed mitigation steps. This article provides the background, rationale, metrological principles, and practical considerations regarding what would be involved in such a network, and outlines the benefits which may accrue. The challenge, of course, is how to convert such a vision to a long-term sustainable capability providing the necessary well-characterized measurement series to the benefit of global science and future generations

WPA guidance on mental health and mental health care in migrants

The WPA is committed to promote equity in the access to mental health services for persons of different age, gender, race/ethnicity, religion and socioeconomic status. As part of this commitment, the Association decided to devote one of the guidances to be developed within its Action Plan 2008-2011 (1,2) to mental health and mental health care in migrants. A Task Force was appointed for this purpose, which produced the present document. Mental health practitioners work in an increasingly multicultural world, shaped by the migrations of people of many different cultural, racial and ethnic backgrounds. People migrate for many reasons: political, socioeconomic and educational. The diversity of cultures, ethnicity, races and reasons for migration can make understanding experiences of illness challenging in migrants whose background differs significantly from the clinician. Culture has an important role in the presentation of distress and illness, and cultural differences impact upon the diagnosis and treatment of migrant populations in part due to linguistic, religious and social variation from the clinician providing care. Additionally, it appears that the incidence and prevalence of mental disorders varies among people of different cultural backgrounds, due to an interplay of biological, psychological and social factors. The provision of health care is necessarily influenced by the demands of people of many different cultures, and it is important that cultural differences be appreciated and understood to arrive at a correct diagnostic impression and treatment plan

Impact of ocean resolution on coupled air-sea fluxes and large-scale climate

Air-sea fluxes are a crucial component in the energetics of the global climate system. The largest air-sea fluxes occur in regions of high sea surface temperature variability, such as ocean boundary, frontal currents and eddies. In this paper we explore the importance of ocean model resolution to resolve air-sea flux relationships in these areas. We examine the sea surface temperature-wind stress relationship in high-pass filtered observations and two versions of the Met Office climate model with eddy-permitting and eddy-resolving ocean resolutions. Eddy-resolving resolution shows marginal improvement in the relationship over eddy-permitting resolution. However, by focussing on the North Atlantic we show that the eddy-resolving model has significant enhancement of latent heat loss over the North Atlantic Current region, a long-standing model bias. While eddy-resolving resolution does not change the air-sea flux relationship at small scale, the impact on the mean state has important implications for the reliability of future climate projections