Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.The accepted author manuscript version of this article is in ORE at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/18829Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications. The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear from the existing evidence that some techniques have a higher risk of failure or unexpected outcomes than others and managers will need to make careful choices about which to implement. We have assessed the strength of evidence of these approaches in order to demonstrate to conservation professionals the risks involved.A.J.S. was funded by a NERC grant, ref: NE/L00268X/1

Climatic Disequilibrium Threatens Conservation Priority Forests

AcceptedArticle in PressThis is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley Open Access via the DOI in this record.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.We test the hypothesis that climatic changes since 1800 have resulted in unrealized potential vegetation changes that represent a "climatic debt" for many ecosystems. Caledonian pinewoods, an EU priority forest type, are used as a model system to explore potential impacts of two centuries of climatic change upon sites of conservation importance and surrounding landscapes. Using methods that estimate topographic microclimate, current and preindustrial climates were estimated for 50 m grid cells and simulations made using a dynamic vegetation model. Core Caledonian pinewood areas are now less suitable for growth of pine and more favorable for oak than in 1800, whereas landscapes as a whole are on average more favorable for both. The most favorable areas for pine are now mainly outside areas designated to conserve historical pinewoods. A paradigm shift is needed in formulating conservation strategies to avoid catastrophic losses of this habitat, and of many others globally with trees or other long-lived perennials as keystone species.Natural Environment Research Council. Grant Number: NE/I011234/

Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change

© 2015 British Ecological Society. Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management. Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable. Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research. Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications. The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear from the existing evidence that some techniques have a higher risk of failure or unexpected outcomes than others and managers will need to make careful choices about which to implement. We have assessed the strength of evidence of these approaches in order to demonstrate to conservation professionals the risks involved

Testing the effectiveness of the forest integrity assessment: A field‐based tool for estimating the condition of tropical forest

1. Global targets to halt biodiversity losses and mitigate climate change will require protecting rainforest beyond current protected area networks, necessitating responsible forest stewardship from a diverse range of companies, communities and private individuals. Robust assessments of forest condition are critical for successful forest management, but many existing techniques are highly technical, time-consuming, expensive or require specialist knowledge. 2. To make assessment of tropical forests accessible to a wide range of actors, many of whom may be limited by resources or expertise, the High Conservation Value Resource Network (HCVRN), with the SE Asia Rainforest Research Partnership (SEARRP), developed a South East Asian version of the Forest Integrity Assessment (FIA) tool as a rapid (< 1 hour) method of assessing forest condition in the field, where non-experts respond to 50 questions about characteristics of the local environment while walking a site transect. Here, we examined the effectiveness of this survey tool by conducting ∼ 1000 assessments of forest condition at 16 tropical rainforest sites with varying levels of disturbance in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. 3. We found good agreement (R-squared range: 0.50–0.78) between FIA survey scores and independent measures of forest condition, including biodiversity, vegetation structure, aboveground carbon and other key metrics of ecosystem function, indicating that the tool performed well. Although there was variation among assessor responses when surveying the same forest sites, assessors were consistent in their ranking of those sites, and prior forest knowledge had a minimal effect on the FIA scores. Revisions or further training for questions where assessors disagree, for example, on the presence of fauna at a site, could improve consistency. 4. We conclude that the FIA survey tool is a robust method of assessing forest condition, providing a rapid and accessible means of forest conservation assessment. The FIA tool could be incorporated into management practices in a wide range of forest conservation schemes, from sustainability standards, to community forestry and restoration initiatives. The tool will enable more organizations and individuals to understand the conservation value of the forests they manage and to identify areas for targeted improvements

Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

Thermal Adaptation and Diversity in Tropical Ecosystems: Evidence from Cicadas (Hemiptera, Cicadidae)

The latitudinal gradient in species diversity is a central problem in ecology. Expeditions covering approximately 16°54′ of longitude and 21°4′ of latitude and eight Argentine phytogeographic regions provided thermal adaptation data for 64 species of cicadas. We test whether species diversity relates to the diversity of thermal environments within a habitat. There are general patterns of the thermal response values decreasing in cooler floristic provinces and decreasing maximum potential temperature within a habitat except in tropical forest ecosystems. Vertical stratification of the plant communities leads to stratification in species using specific layers of the habitat. There is a decrease in thermal tolerances in species from the understory communities in comparison to middle level or canopy fauna. The understory Herrera umbraphila Sanborn & Heath is the first diurnally active cicada identified as a thermoconforming species. The body temperature for activity in H. umbraphila is less than and significantly different from active body temperatures of all other studied species regardless of habitat affiliation. These data suggest that variability in thermal niches within the heterogeneous plant community of the tropical forest environments permits species diversification as species adapt their physiology to function more efficiently at temperatures different from their potential competitors

Changes in habitat associations during range expansion: disentangling the effects of climate and residence time

The distributions of many species are not at equilibrium with their environment. This includes spreading non-native species and species undergoing range shifts in response to climate change. The habitat associations of these species may change during range expansion as less favourable climatic conditions at expanding range margins may constrain species to use only the most favourable habitats, violating the species distribution model assumption of stationarity. Alternatively, changes in habitat associations could result from density-dependent habitat selection; at range margins, population densities are initially low so species can exhibit density-independent selection of the most favourable habitats, while in the range core, where population densities are higher, species spread into less favourable habitat. We investigate if the habitat preferences of the non-native common waxbill Estrilda astrild changed as they spread in three directions (north, east and south-east) in the Iberian Peninsula. There are different degrees of climatic suitability and colonization speed across range expansion axes, allowing us to separate the effects of climate from residence time. In contrast to previous studies we find a stronger effect of residence time than climate in influencing the prevalence of common waxbills. As well as a strong additive effect of residence time, there were some changes in habitat associations, which were consistent with density-dependent habitat selection. The combination of broader habitat associations and higher prevalence in areas that have been colonised for longer means that species distribution models constructed early in the invasion process are likely to underestimate species’ potential distribution

Changes in the geographical distribution of plant species and climatic variables on the West Cornwall peninsula (South West UK)

Recent climate change has had a major impact on biodiversity and has altered the geographical distribution of vascular plant species. This trend is visible globally; however, more local and regional scale research is needed to improve understanding of the patterns of change and to develop appropriate conservation strategies that can minimise cultural, health, and economic losses at finer scales. Here we describe a method to manually geo-reference botanical records from a historical herbarium to track changes in the geographical distributions of plant species in West Cornwall (South West England) using both historical (pre-1900) and contemporary (post-1900) distribution records. We also assess the use of Ellenberg and climate indicator values as markers of responses to climate and environmental change. Using these techniques we detect a loss in 19 plant species, with 6 species losing more than 50% of their previous range. Statistical analysis showed that Ellenberg (light, moisture, nitrogen) and climate indicator values (mean January temperature, mean July temperature and mean precipitation) could be used as environmental change indicators. Significantly higher percentages of area lost were detected in species with lower January temperatures, July temperatures, light, and nitrogen values, as well as higher annual precipitation and moisture values. This study highlights the importance of historical records in examining the changes in plant species’ geographical distributions. We present a method for manual geo-referencing of such records, and demonstrate how using Ellenberg and climate indicator values as environmental and climate change indicators can contribute towards directing appropriate conservation strategies

Meningococcal carriage in periods of high and low invasive meningococcal disease incidence in the UK: comparison of UKMenCar1-4 cross-sectional survey results.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of invasive meningococcal disease in the UK decreased by approximately four times from 1999 to 2014, with reductions in serogroup C and serogroup B disease. Lower serogroup C invasive meningococcal disease incidence was attributable to implementation of the meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine in 1999, through direct and indirect protection, but no vaccine was implemented against serogroup B disease. UK Meningococcal Carriage surveys 1-3 (UKMenCar1-3), conducted in 1999, 2000, and 2001, were essential for understanding the impact of vaccination. To investigate the decline in invasive meningococcal disease incidence, we did a large oropharyngeal carriage survey in 2014-15, immediately before the changes to meningococcal vaccines in the UK national immunisation schedule. METHODS: UKMenCar4 was a cross-sectional survey in adolescents aged 15-19 years who were enrolled from schools and colleges geographically local to one of 11 UK sampling centres between Sept 1, 2014, and March 30, 2015. Participants provided an oropharyngeal swab sample and completed a questionnaire on risk factors for carriage, including social behaviours. Samples were cultured for putative Neisseria spp, which were characterised with serogrouping and whole-genome sequencing. Data from this study were compared with the results from the UKMenCar1-3 surveys (1999-2001). FINDINGS: From the 19 641 participants (11 332 female, 8242 male, 67 not stated) in UKMenCar4 with culturable swabs and completed risk-factor questionnaires, 1420 meningococci were isolated, with a carriage prevalence of 7·23% (95% CI 6·88-7·60). Carriage prevalence was substantially lower in UKMenCar4 than in the previous surveys: carriage prevalence was 16·6% (95% CI 15·89-17·22; 2306/13 901) in UKMenCar1 (1999), 17·6% (17·05-18·22; 2873/16 295) in UKMenCar2 (2000), and 18·7% (18·12-19·27; 3283/17 569) in UKMenCar3 (2001). Carriage prevalence was lower for all serogroups in UKMenCar4 than in UKMenCar1-3, except for serogroup Y, which was unchanged. The prevalence of carriage-promoting social behaviours decreased from 1999 to 2014-15, with individuals reporting regular cigarette smoking decreasing from 2932 (21·5%) of 13 650 to 2202 (11·2%) of 19 641, kissing in the past week from 6127 (44·8%) of 13 679 to 7320 (37·3%) of 19 641, and attendance at pubs and nightclubs in the past week from 8436 (62·1%) of 13 594 to 7662 (39·0%) of 19 641 (all p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: We show that meningococcal carriage prevalence in adolescents sampled nationally during a low incidence period (2014-15) was less than half of that in an equivalent population during a high incidence period (1999-2001). Disease and carriage caused by serogroup C was well controlled by ongoing vaccination. The prevalence of behaviours associated with carriage declined, suggesting that public health policies aimed at influencing behaviour might have further reduced disease. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Department of Health, and National Institute for Health Research