The influence of flow discharge variations on the morphodynamics of a diffluence-confluence unit on a large river: Impacts of discharge variation on a diffluence-confluence unit

© 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Bifurcations are key geomorphological nodes in anabranching and braided fluvial channels, controlling local bed morphology, the routing of sediment and water, and ultimately defining the stability of their associated diffluence–confluence unit. Recently, numerical modelling of bifurcations has focused on the relationship between flow conditions and the partitioning of sediment between the bifurcate channels. Herein, we report on field observations spanning September 2013 to July 2014 of the three-dimensional flow structure, bed morphological change and partitioning of both flow discharge and suspended sediment through a large diffluence–confluence unit on the Mekong River, Cambodia, across a range of flow stages (from 13 500 to 27 000 m 3 s −1 ). Analysis of discharge and sediment load throughout the diffluence–confluence unit reveals that during the highest flows (Q = 27 000 m 3 s −1 ), the downstream island complex is a net sink of sediment (losing 2600 ± 2000 kg s −1 between the diffluence and confluence), whereas during the rising limb (Q = 19 500 m 3 s −1 ) and falling limb flows (Q = 13 500 m 3 s −1 ) the sediment balance is in quasi-equilibrium. We show that the discharge asymmetry of the bifurcation varies with discharge and highlight that the influence of upstream curvature-induced water surface slope and bed morphological change may be first-order controls on bifurcation configuration. Comparison of our field data to existing bifurcation stability diagrams reveals that during lower (rising and falling limb) flow the bifurcation may be classified as unstable, yet transitions to a stable condition at high flows. However, over the long term (1959–2013) aerial imagery reveals the diffluence–confluence unit to be fairly stable. We propose, therefore, that the long-term stability of the bifurcation, as well as the larger channel planform and morphology of the diffluence–confluence unit, may be controlled by the dominant sediment transport regime of the system. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Extreme flood-driven fluvial bank erosion and sediment loads: direct process measurements using integrated Mobile Laser Scanning (MLS) and hydro-acoustic techniques: Direct measurement of flood-driven erosion using MLS and MBES

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This methods paper details the first attempt at monitoring bank erosion, flow and suspended sediment at a site during flooding on the Mekong River induced by the passage of tropical cyclones. We deployed integrated mobile laser scanning (MLS) and multibeam echo sounding (MBES), alongside acoustic Doppler current profiling (aDcp), to directly measure changes in river bank and bed at high (~0.05 m) spatial resolution, in conjunction with measurements of flow and suspended sediment dynamics. We outline the methodological steps used to collect and process this complex point cloud data, and detail the procedures used to process and calibrate the aDcp flow and sediment flux data. A comparison with conventional remote sensing methods of estimating bank erosion, using aerial images and Landsat imagery, reveals that traditional techniques are error prone at the high temporal resolutions required to quantify the patterns and volumes of bank erosion induced by the passage of individual flood events. Our analysis reveals the importance of cyclone-driven flood events in causing high rates of erosion and suspended sediment transport, with a c. twofold increase in bank erosion volumes and a fourfold increase in suspended sediment volumes in the cyclone-affected wet season. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Geological controls of discharge variability in the Thames Basin, UK from cross-spectral analyses: observations versus modelling

Geological factors controlling daily- to multi-year discharge variability in 48 sub-catchments spanning 10–1000 km2 in the Thames Basin were investigated using cross-spectral analysis. The analyses represent a ‘transfer function approach’ applied to daily observed streamflow (output) versus catchment-wide precipitation (input) for data spanning 1990–2014. Catchments dominated by high-permeability bedrock have significant attenuation of high-frequency precipitation variability and large delays at all frequencies with streamflow dominated by baseflow (high lag1 autocorrelation and high Base Flow Index, BFI). Catchments dominated by low-permeability rocks have little high-frequency attenuation and small delays and consequently ‘flashy’ behaviour. For all sub-catchments >300 km2 in the Thames Basin, attenuation of the highest frequency precipitation variability caused by mixing of flow from upstream plus groundwater flow (representing ‘older’ variability) with direct surface flow (‘younger’ variability) constitutes real-world moving averaging as indicated by a roll-off in power at the highest frequencies. The success of the JULES land surface model in simulating discharge (i.e. surface and sub-surface runoff routed between grid boxes) is also linked to the underlying geology. Larger catchments (>300 km2) are modelled well because routing between numerous grid boxes leads to moving averaging that is a good analogue for the observations. Modelling was least successful (e.g. lowest Kling-Gupta Efficiency) for small catchments (<300 km2) dominated by high-permeability bedrock - with far too little attenuation of high-frequency precipitation variability and insufficient delays at all frequencies. Experimentally switching the soil saturated hydraulic conductivity to that of the underlying bedrock for grid boxes dominated by aquifers significantly improves modelled discharge variability in small sub-catchments - confirming the importance of bedrock permeability in modelling. For small catchments in data-sparse regions, knowledge of the relative proportions of different hydrogeological units (aquifers, aquitards) potentially could be used to predict and model discharge variability as characterised by BFI and lag1 autocorrelation

Placebo response rate in clinical trials of fistulizing crohn's disease: systematic review and meta-analysis

Background & Aims: It is important to determine the magnitude and identify modifiers of the rate of response to placebo in clinical trials of fistulizing Crohn’s disease (CD), to understand disease progression, and to calculate sample size. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of rates of response to placebo in trials of patients with fistulizing CD. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, EMBASE CLASSIC, and the Cochrane central register of controlled trials for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing pharmacologic agents with placebo in adults with fistulizing CD. We identified studies that reported complete fistula closure, partial closure, or response. Data were extracted as intention-to-treat analyses and pooled by using a random-effects model. Proportions of patients who received placebo and had complete or partial fistula(e) closure were calculated, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The effects of trial characteristics on the magnitude of response to placebo were examined. Results: Thirteen RCTs were eligible for our analysis; these included 579 patients assigned to placebo groups. The pooled rate of response to placebo, among all RCTs, for complete fistula closure was 15.6% (95% CI, 10.9%–20.9%), with significant heterogeneity (I2 = 62.5%, P = .001). The pooled rate of response to placebo for partial fistula closure or response in 9 trials, comprising 423 patients, was 18.3% (95% CI, 14.8%–22.1%). Rates of response to placebo were significantly lower in trials with shorter durations of therapy and shorter intervals to assessment of fistula closure. Neither exposure to the pharmacologic agent during the induction phase of the same (or related) RCT nor concomitant medications had any effect. Conclusions: In a meta-analysis of rate of response to placebo in patients with fistulizing CD, we found that fistulae closed in almost 1/6 patients given placebo in RCTs of pharmacologic agents. Future research should identify characteristics of patients that predict response to placebo

The role of role theory in International Political Economy

This article demonstrates the benefits of using a role theory approach in the field of International Political Economy (IPE) by demonstrating the benefits of role theory relative to variants of the social constructivist paradigm, especially vis-à-vis identity based accounts of IPE. This article also documents why and how role theory has always had a home in IPE even before the constructivist revolution in the 1990s. The social interactionist dimension in the work of Herbert Mead and his notion of a general other are linked to the relational ideas of friendship and impartial spectator present in the works of the founding father of classical political economy, Adam Smith. These similar ideas about the self and their surrounding social environment is a useful starting point to locate role theory in IPE and demonstrate its analytical advantages within social constructivism. After showing the “forgotten” place role theory has always had in IPE, the article illustrates the potential of using a role theory approach within the field of IPE through an illustrative analysis of the Greek economic crisis

Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes by lifestyle intervention in an Australian primary health care setting: Greater Green Triangle (GGT) Diabetes Prevention Project

BackgroundRandomised controlled trials demonstrate a 60% reduction in type 2 diabetes incidence through lifestyle modification programmes. The aim of this study is to determine whether such programmes are feasible in primary health care.MethodsAn intervention study including 237 individuals 40&ndash;75 years of age with moderate or high risk of developing type 2 diabetes. A structured group programme with six 90 minute sessions delivered during an eight month period by trained nurses in Australian primary health care in 2004&ndash;2006. Main outcome measures taken at baseline, three, and 12 months included weight, height, waist circumference, fasting plasma glucose and lipids, plasma glucose two hours after oral glucose challenge, blood pressure, measures of psychological distress and general health outcomes. To test differences between baseline and follow-up, paired t-tests and Wilcoxon rank sum tests were performed.ResultsAt twelve months participants\u27 mean weight reduced by 2.52 kg (95% confidence interval 1.85 to 3.19) and waist circumference by 4.17 cm (3.48 to 4.87). Mean fasting glucose reduced by 0.14 mmol/l (0.07 to 0.20), plasma glucose two hours after oral glucose challenge by 0.58 mmol/l (0.36 to 0.79), total cholesterol by 0.29 mmol/l (0.18 to 0.40), low density lipoprotein cholesterol by 0.25 mmol/l (0.16 to 0.34), triglycerides by 0.15 mmol/l (0.05 to 0.24) and diastolic blood pressure by 2.14 mmHg (0.94 to 3.33). Significant improvements were also found in most psychological measures.ConclusionThis study provides evidence that a type 2 diabetes prevention programme using lifestyle intervention is feasible in primary health care settings, with reductions in risk factors approaching those observed in clinical trials.Trial NumberCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN38031372<br /

Carbon budget for 1.5 and 2oC targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks

Methane emissions from natural wetlands and carbon release from permafrost thaw have a positive feedback on climate, yet are not represented in most state-of-the-art climate models. Furthermore, a fraction of the thawed permafrost carbon is released as methane, enhancing the combined feedback strength. We present simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model which follow prescribed global warming pathways to stabilisation at 1.5°C or 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels by the year 2100, and that incorporates a state-of-the-art global land surface model with updated descriptions of wetland and permafrost carbon release. We demonstrate that the climate feedbacks from those two processes are substantial. Specifically, permissible anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 emission budgets are reduced by 17-23% (47-56 GtC) for stabilisation at 1.5°C, and 9-13% (52-57 GtC) for 2.0°C stabilisation. In our simulations these feedback processes respond faster at temperatures below 1.5°C, and the differences between the 1.5°C and 2°C targets are disproportionately small. This key finding is due to our interest in transient emission pathways to the year 2100 and does not consider the longer term implications of these feedback processes. We conclude that natural feedback processes from wetlands and permafrost must be considered in assessments of transient emission pathways to limit global warming

Fluvial sediment supply to a mega-delta reduced by shifting tropical-cyclone activity

© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. The world's rivers deliver 19 billion tonnes of sediment to the coastal zone annually, with a considerable fraction being sequestered in large deltas, home to over 500 million people. Most (more than 70 per cent) large deltas are under threat from a combination of rising sea levels, ground surface subsidence and anthropogenic sediment trapping, and a sustainable supply of fluvial sediment is therefore critical to prevent deltas being 'drowned' by rising relative sea levels. Here we combine suspended sediment load data from the Mekong River with hydrological model simulations to isolate the role of tropical cyclones in transmitting suspended sediment to one of the world's great deltas. We demonstrate that spatial variations in the Mekong's suspended sediment load are correlated (r = 0.765, P < 0.1) with observed variations in tropical-cyclone climatology, and that a substantial portion (32 per cent) of the suspended sediment load reaching the delta is delivered by runoff generated by rainfall associated with tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we estimate that the suspended load to the delta has declined by 52.6 ± 10.2 megatonnes over recent years (1981-2005), of which 33.0 ± 7.1 megatonnes is due to a shift in tropical-cyclone climatology. Consequently, tropical cyclones have a key role in controlling the magnitude of, and variability in, transmission of suspended sediment to the coast. It is likely that anthropogenic sediment trapping in upstream reservoirs is a dominant factor in explaining past, and anticipating future, declines in suspended sediment loads reaching the world's major deltas. However, our study shows that changes in tropical-cyclone climatology affect trends in fluvial suspended sediment loads and thus are also key to fully assessing the risk posed to vulnerable coastal systems

Sex Differences in Poststroke Cognitive Impairment: A Multicenter Study in 2343 Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND: Poststroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) occurs in about half of stroke survivors. Cumulative evidence indicates that functional outcomes of stroke are worse in women than men. Yet it is unknown whether the occurrence and characteristics of PSCI differ between men and women. METHODS: Individual patient data from 9 cohorts of patients with ischemic stroke were harmonized and pooled through the Meta-VCI-Map consortium (n=2343, 38% women). We included patients with visible symptomatic infarcts on computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging and cognitive assessment within 15 months after stroke. PSCI was defined as impairment in ≥1 cognitive domains on neuropsychological assessment. Logistic regression analyses were performed to compare men to women, adjusted for study cohort, to obtain odds ratios for PSCI and individual cognitive domains. We also explored sensitivity and specificity of cognitive screening tools for detecting PSCI, according to sex (Mini-Mental State Examination, 4 cohorts, n=1814; Montreal Cognitive Assessment, 3 cohorts, n=278). RESULTS: PSCI was found in 51% of both women and men. Men had a lower risk of impairment of attention and executive functioning (men: odds ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.61-0.96]), and language (men: odds ratio, 0.67 [95% CI, 0.45-0.85]), but a higher risk of verbal memory impairment (men: odds ratio, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.17-1.75]). The sensitivity of Mini-Mental State Examination (<25) for PSCI was higher for women (0.53) than for men (0.27; P=0.02), with a lower specificity for women (0.80) than men (0.96; P=0.01). Sensitivity and specificity of Montreal Cognitive Assessment (<26.) for PSCI was comparable between women and men (0.91 versus 0.86; P=0.62 and 0.29 versus 0.28; P=0.86, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Sex was not associated with PSCI occurrence but affected domains differed between men and women. The latter may explain why sensitivity of the Mini-Mental State Examination for detecting PSCI was higher in women with a lower specificity compared with men. These sex differences need to be considered when screening for and diagnosing PSCI in clinical practice