Consequences of Spatial Structure in Soil–Geomorphic Data on the Results of Machine Learning Models

In this paper, we examined the degree to which inherent spatial structure in soil properties influences the outcomes of machine learning (ML) approaches to predicting soil spatial variability. We compared the performances of four ML algorithms (support vector machine, artificial neural network, random forest, and random forest for spatial data) against two non-ML algorithms (ordinary least squares regression and spatial filtering regression). None of the ML algorithms produced residuals that had lower mean values or were less autocorrelated over space compared with the non-ML approaches. We recommend the use of random forest when a soil variable of interest is weakly autocorrelated (Moran\u27s I \u3c 0.1) and spatial filtering regression when it is relatively strongly autocorrelated (Moran\u27s I \u3e 0.4). Overall, this work opens the door to a more consistent selection of model algorithms through the establishment of threshold criteria for spatial autocorrelation of input variables

Sheltered or suppressed? Tree regeneration in unmanaged European forests

1. Tree regeneration is a key demographic process influencing long-term forest dynamics. It is driven by climate, disturbances, biotic factors and their interactions. Thus, predictions of tree regeneration are challenging due to complex feedbacks along the wide climatic gradients covered by most tree species. The stress gradient hypothesis (SGH) provides a framework for assessing such feedbacks across species ranges, suggesting that competition between trees is more frequent under favourable conditions, whereas reduced competition (i.e. positive interactions) is more likely under climatic stress. Moreover, tree life-history strategies (LHS) may shed light on how and whether the SGH explains regeneration of different tree species. 2. To address these topics, we developed statistical models based on >50,000 recruitment events observed for 24 tree species in an extensive permanent plot network (6540 plots from 299 unmanaged European temperate, boreal and subalpine forests) covering a wide climatic gradient. 3. We found that the effects of Leaf Area Index (as a proxy for competition) on tree recruitment changed along climatic gradients but in a species-specific manner. Competition predominates, with its intensity decreasing under stressful conditions for most species, as predicted by the SGH. However, positive interactions were only evident for a few species. Additionally, the ability of the SGH to explain patterns of competition and positive interactions across the gradients differed among species, with some differences and exceptions that may be related to varying LHS. 4. Synthesis. Our study shows that competition between trees toward climatic stress decreases systematically but depends on species stress tolerance to climate and shade. These findings explain within- and between-species differences in tree recruitment patterns in European temperate forests. Moreover, our findings imply that projections of forest dynamics along wide climatic gradients and under climate change must accommodate both competition and positive interactions, as they strongly affect rates of community turnover.ISSN:0022-047

Arbuscular mycorrhizal trees influence the latitudinal beta-diversity gradient of tree communities in forests worldwide.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associations are critical for host-tree performance. However, how mycorrhizal associations correlate with the latitudinal tree beta-diversity remains untested. Using a global dataset of 45 forest plots representing 2,804,270 trees across 3840 species, we test how AM and EcM trees contribute to total beta-diversity and its components (turnover and nestedness) of all trees. We find AM rather than EcM trees predominantly contribute to decreasing total beta-diversity and turnover and increasing nestedness with increasing latitude, probably because wide distributions of EcM trees do not generate strong compositional differences among localities. Environmental variables, especially temperature and precipitation, are strongly correlated with beta-diversity patterns for both AM trees and all trees rather than EcM trees. Results support our hypotheses that latitudinal beta-diversity patterns and environmental effects on these patterns are highly dependent on mycorrhizal types. Our findings highlight the importance of AM-dominated forests for conserving global forest biodiversity

Arbuscular mycorrhizal trees influence the latitudinal beta-diversity gradient of tree communities in forests worldwide.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associations are critical for host-tree performance. However, how mycorrhizal associations correlate with the latitudinal tree beta-diversity remains untested. Using a global dataset of 45 forest plots representing 2,804,270 trees across 3840 species, we test how AM and EcM trees contribute to total beta-diversity and its components (turnover and nestedness) of all trees. We find AM rather than EcM trees predominantly contribute to decreasing total beta-diversity and turnover and increasing nestedness with increasing latitude, probably because wide distributions of EcM trees do not generate strong compositional differences among localities. Environmental variables, especially temperature and precipitation, are strongly correlated with beta-diversity patterns for both AM trees and all trees rather than EcM trees. Results support our hypotheses that latitudinal beta-diversity patterns and environmental effects on these patterns are highly dependent on mycorrhizal types. Our findings highlight the importance of AM-dominated forests for conserving global forest biodiversity

Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands

Masting is uncommon in trees that depend on mutualist dispersers in the context of global climate and fertility gradients

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands