Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

Evidence for Reduced Specific Star Formation Rates in the Centers of Massive Galaxies at z = 4

We perform the first spatially-resolved stellar population study of galaxies in the early universe (z = 3.5 - 6.5), utilizing the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS) imaging dataset over the GOODS-S field. We select a sample of 418 bright and extended galaxies at z = 3.5 - 6.5 from a parent sample of ~ 8000 photometric-redshift selected galaxies from Finkelstein et al. (2015). We first examine galaxies at 3.5< z < 4.0 using additional deep K-band survey data from the HAWK-I UDS and GOODS Survey (HUGS) which covers the 4000A break at these redshifts. We measure the stellar mass, star formation rate, and dust extinction for galaxy inner and outer regions via spatially-resolved spectral energy distribution fitting based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. By comparing specific star formation rates (sSFRs) between inner and outer parts of the galaxies we find that the majority of galaxies with the high central mass densities show evidence for a preferentially lower sSFR in their centers than in their outer regions, indicative of reduced sSFRs in their central regions. We also study galaxies at z ~ 5 and 6 (here limited to high spatial resolution in the rest-frame ultraviolet only), finding that they show sSFRs which are generally independent of radial distance from the center of the galaxies. This indicates that stars are formed uniformly at all radii in massive galaxies at z ~ 5 - 6, contrary to massive galaxies at z < 4.Comment: Accepted to ApJ, 20 pages, 15 figure

Ionophore‐Based Biphasic Chemical Sensing in Droplet Microfluidics

Droplet microfluidics is an enabling platform for high‐throughput screens, single‐cell studies, low‐volume chemical diagnostics, and microscale material syntheses. Analytical methods for real‐time and in situ detection of chemicals in the droplets will benefit these applications, but they remain limited. Reported herein is a novel heterogeneous chemical sensing strategy based on functionalization of the oil phase with rationally combined sensing reagents. Sub‐nanoliter oil segments containing pH‐sensitive fluorophores, ionophores, and ion‐exchangers enable highly selective and rapid fluorescence detection of physiologically important electrolytes (K+, Na+, and Cl−) and polyions (protamine) in sub‐nanoliter aqueous droplets. Electrolyte analysis in whole blood is demonstrated without suffering from optical interference from the sample matrix. Moreover, an oil phase doped with an aza‐BODIPY dye allows indication of H2O2 in the aqueous droplets, exemplifying sensing of targets beyond ionic species.Phase in: The oil phase in droplet microfluidics is functionalized with rationally combined sensing reagents. Thus, the sub‐nanoliter oil segments become chemical sensors toward specific targets in their adjacent sub‐nanoliter aqueous droplets. This biphasic sensing platform enables detection of a wide spectrum of targets including ionic, polyionic, and non‐ionic species, in a real‐time and reagent‐conservative fashion.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149501/1/anie201902960_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149501/2/anie201902960-sup-0001-misc_information.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149501/3/anie201902960.pd

CLEAR I: Ages and Metallicities of Quiescent Galaxies at 1.0<z<1.8\mathbf{1.0 < z < 1.8} Derived from Deep Hubble Space Telescope Grism Data

We use deep \textit{Hubble Space Telescope} spectroscopy to constrain the metallicities and (\editone{light-weighted}) ages of massive ($\log M_\ast/M_\odot\gtrsim10$) galaxies selected to have quiescent stellar populations at $1.0<z<1.8$. The data include 12--orbit depth coverage with the WFC3/G102 grism covering $\sim$ $8,000<\lambda<11,500$~\AA\, at a spectral resolution of $R\sim 210$ taken as part of the CANDELS Lyman-$\alpha$ Emission at Reionization (CLEAR) survey. At $1.0<z<1.8$, the spectra cover important stellar population features in the rest-frame optical. We simulate a suite of stellar population models at the grism resolution, fit these to the data for each galaxy, and derive posterior likelihood distributions for metallicity and age. We stack the posteriors for subgroups of galaxies in different redshift ranges that include different combinations of stellar absorption features. Our results give \editone{light-weighted ages of $t_{z \sim 1.1}= 3.2\pm 0.7$~Gyr, $t_{z \sim 1.2}= 2.2\pm 0.6$~Gyr, $t_{z\sim1.3}= 3.1\pm 0.6$~Gyr, and $t_{z\sim1.6}= 2.0 \pm 0.6$~Gyr, \editone{for galaxies at $z\sim 1.1$, 1.2, 1.3, and 1.6. This} implies that most of the massive quiescent galaxies at $168$\% of their stellar mass by a redshift of $z>2$}. The posteriors give metallicities of \editone{$Z_{z\sim1.1}=1.16 \pm 0.29$~$Z_\odot$, $Z_{z\sim1.2}=1.05 \pm 0.34$~$Z_\odot$, $Z_{z\sim1.3}=1.00 \pm 0.31$~$Z_\odot$, and $Z_{z\sim1.6}=0.95 \pm 0.39$~$Z_\odot$}. This is evidence that massive galaxies had enriched rapidly to approximately Solar metallicities as early as $z\sim3$.Comment: 32 pages, 23 figures, Resubmited to ApJ after revisions in response to referee repor

CANDELS: The Contribution of the Observed Galaxy Population to Cosmic Reionization

We present measurements of the specific ultraviolet luminosity density from a sample of 483 galaxies at 6<z<8. These galaxies were selected from new deep near-infrared HST imaging from the CANDELS, HUDF09 and ERS programs. In contrast to the majority of previous analyses, which assume that the distribution of galaxy ultraviolet (UV) luminosities follows a Schechter distribution, and that the distribution continues to luminosities far below our observable limit, we investigate the contribution to reionization from galaxies which we can observe, free from these assumptions. We find that the observable population of galaxies can sustain a fully reionized IGM at z=6, if the average ionizing photon escape fraction (f_esc) is ~30%. A number of previous studies have measured UV luminosity densities at these redshifts that vary by 5X, with many concluding that galaxies could not complete reionization by z=6 unless a large population of galaxies fainter than the detection limit were invoked, or extremely high values of f_esc were present. The observed UV luminosity density from our observed galaxy samples at z=7-8 is not sufficient to maintain a fully reionized IGM unless f_esc>50%. Combining our observations with constraints on the emission rate of ionizing photons from Ly-alpha forest observations at z=6, we can constrain f_esc<34% (2-sigma) if the observed galaxies are the only contributors to reionization, or <13% (2-sigma) if the luminosity function extends to M_UV = -13. These escape fractions are sufficient to complete reionization by z=6. These constraints imply that the volume ionized fraction of the IGM becomes less than unity at z>7, consistent with a number of complementary reionization probes. If faint galaxies dominate reionization, future JWST observations will probe deep enough to see them, providing an indirect constraint on the ionizing photon escape fraction [abridged].Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, Submitted to the Astrophysical Journa

Constraining The Assembly Of Normal And Compact Passively Evolving Galaxies From Redshift z=3 To The Present With CANDELS

We study the evolution of the number density, as a function of the size, of passive early-type galaxies with a wide range of stellar masses 10^10<M*/Msun<10^11.5) from z~3 to z~1, exploiting the unique dataset available in the GOODS-South field, including the recently obtained WFC3 images as a part of the Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS). In particular, we select a sample of 107 massive (M*>10^10 M_sun), passive (SSFR<10^-2 Gyr^-1) and morphologically spheroidal galaxies at 1.2<z<3, taking advantage of the panchromatic dataset available for GOODS, including VLT, CFHT, Spitzer, Chandra and HST ACS+WFC3 data. We find that at 1<z<3 the passively evolving early-type galaxies are the reddest and most massive objects in the Universe, and we prove that a correlation between mass, morphology, color and star-formation activity is already in place at that epoch. We measure a significant evolution in the mass-size relation of passive early-type galaxies (ETGs) from z~3 to z~1, with galaxies growing on average by a factor of 2 in size in a 3 Gyr timescale only. We witness also an increase in the number density of passive ETGs of 50 times over the same time interval. We find that the first ETGs to form at z>2 are all compact or ultra-compact, while normal sized ETGs (meaning ETGs with sizes comparable to those of local counterparts of the same mass) are the most common ETGs only at z<1. The increase of the average size of ETGs at 0<z<1 is primarily driven by the appearance of new large ETGs rather than by the size increase of individual galaxies.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Ap

Outlying HII Regions in HI-Selected Galaxies

We present results from the first systematic search for outlying HII regions, as part of a sample of 96 emission-line point sources (referred to as ELdots - emission-line dots) derived from the NOAO Survey for Ionization in Neutral Gas Galaxies (SINGG). Our automated ELdot-finder searches SINGG narrow-band and continuum images for high equivalent width point sources outside the optical radius of the target galaxy (> 2 X r25 in the R-band). Follow-up longslit spectroscopy and deep GALEX images (exposure time > 1000 s) distinguish outlying HII regions from background galaxies whose strong emission lines ([OIII], Hbeta or [OII]) have been redshifted into the SINGG bandpass. We find that these deep GALEX images can serve as a substitute for spectroscopic follow-up because outlying HII regions separate cleanly from background galaxies in color-color space. We identify seven SINGG systems with outlying massive star formation that span a large range in Halpha luminosities corresponding to a few O stars in the most nearby cases, and unresolved dwarf satellite companion galaxies in the most distant cases. Six of these seven systems feature galaxies with nearby companions or interacting galaxies. Furthermore, our results indicate that some outlying HII regions are linked to the extended-UV disks discovered by GALEX, representing emission from the most massive O stars among a more abundant population of lower mass (or older) star clusters. The overall frequency of outlying HII regions in this sample of gas-rich galaxies is 8 - 11% when we correct for background emission-line galaxy contamination (~75% of ELdots).Comment: 20 pages, 14 Figures, Accepted by A

Intergalactic HII Regions Discovered in SINGG

A number of very small isolated HII regions have been discovered at projected distances up to 30 kpc from their nearest galaxy. These HII regions appear as tiny emission line objects in narrow band images obtained by the NOAO Survey for Ionization in Neutral Gas Galaxies (SINGG). We present spectroscopic confirmation of four isolated HII regions in two systems, both systems have tidal HI features. The results are consistent with stars forming in interactive debris due to cloud-cloud collisions. The H-alpha luminosities of the isolated HII regions are equivalent to the ionizing flux of only a few O stars each. They are most likely ionized by stars formed in situ, and represent atypical star formation in the low density environment of the outer parts of galaxies. A small but finite intergalactic star formation rate will enrich and ionize the surrounding medium. In one system, NGC 1533, we calculate a star formation rate of 1.5e-3 msun/yr, resulting in a metal enrichment of ~1e-3 solar for the continuous formation of stars. Such systems may have been more common in the past and a similar enrichment level is measured for the `metallicity floor' in damped Lyman-alpha absorption systems.Comment: accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal, 19 pages, including 5 figures, some low resolution. Paper with high resolution images can be downloaded from http://astro.ph.unimelb.edu.au/~eryan/publications/eldots.ps.g

On the Nature of Star Formation at Large Galactic Radii

We have compared far-ultraviolet (FUV), near-ultraviolet (NUV), and Halpha measurements for star forming regions in 21 galaxies, in order to characterise the properties of their discs at radii beyond the main optical radius (R25). In our representative sample of extended and non-extended UV discs we find that half of the extended UV discs also exhibit extended Halpha emission. We find that extended UV discs fall into two categories, those with a sharp truncation in the Halpha disc close to the optical edge (R25), and those with extended emission in Halpha as well as in the ultraviolet. Although most galaxies with strong Halpha truncations near R25 show a significant corresponding falloff in UV emission (factor 10--100), the transition tends to be much smoother than in Halpha, and significant UV emission often extends well beyond this radius, confirming earlier results by Thilker et al. (2007) and others. After correcting for dust attenuation the median fraction of total FUV emission from regions outside of R25 is 1.7%, but it can be as high as 35% in the most extreme cases. The corresponding fractions of Halpha emission are approximately half as large on average. This difference reflects both a slightly lower ratio of Halpha to UV emission in the HII regions in the outer discs, as well as a lower fraction of star clusters showing HII regions. Most HII regions in the extended disc have fluxes consistent with small numbers of ionising O-type stars, and this poor sampling of the upper initial mass function in small clusters can probably account for the differences in the emission properties, consistent with earlier conclusions by Zaritsky & Christlein (2007), without needing to invoke a significant change in the stellar IMF itself. Consistent Ha/FUV ratios and brightest HII region to total Halpha fluxes in the inner and extended discs across our whole galaxy sample demonstrate no evidence for a change in the cluster luminosity function or the IMF in the low gas density outer disc.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 21 Pages, 13 Figures, 2 Table

New Hubble Space Telescope Discoveries of Type Ia Supernovae at z > 1: Narrowing Constraints on the Early Behavior of Dark Energy

We have discovered 21 new Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and have used them to trace the history of cosmic expansion over the last 10 billion years. These objects, which include 13 spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia at z > 1, were discovered during 14 epochs of reimaging of the GOODS fields North and South over two years with the Advanced Camera for Surveys on HST. Together with a recalibration of our previous HST-discovered SNe Ia, the full sample of 23 SNe Ia at z > 1 provides the highest-redshift sample known. Combined with previous SN Ia datasets, we measured H(z) at discrete, uncorrelated epochs, reducing the uncertainty of H(z>1) from 50% to under 20%, strengthening the evidence for a cosmic jerk--the transition from deceleration in the past to acceleration in the present. The unique leverage of the HST high-redshift SNe Ia provides the first meaningful constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at z >1. The result remains consistent with a cosmological constant (w(z)=-1), and rules out rapidly evolving dark energy (dw/dz >>1). The defining property of dark energy, its negative pressure, appears to be present at z>1, in the epoch preceding acceleration, with ~98% confidence in our primary fit. Moreover, the z>1 sample-averaged spectral energy distribution is consistent with that of the typical SN Ia over the last 10 Gyr, indicating that any spectral evolution of the properties of SNe Ia with redshift is still below our detection threshold.Comment: typos, references corrected, minor additions to exposition 82 pages, 17 figures, 6 tables. Data also available at: http://braeburn.pha.jhu.edu/~ariess/R06. Accepted, Astrophysical Journal vol. 656 for March 10, 200