Structured, sparse regression with application to HIV drug resistance

We introduce a new version of forward stepwise regression. Our modification finds solutions to regression problems where the selected predictors appear in a structured pattern, with respect to a predefined distance measure over the candidate predictors. Our method is motivated by the problem of predicting HIV-1 drug resistance from protein sequences. We find that our method improves the interpretability of drug resistance while producing comparable predictive accuracy to standard methods. We also demonstrate our method in a simulation study and present some theoretical results and connections.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS428 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Why do Tornados and Hail Storms Rest on Weekends?

When anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern USA during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hail storm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in storm activity is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud-drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller, delaying precipitation-forming processes and their evaporation, and hence affecting cloud dynamics

Environmental and climatic proxies for the Cañadón Asfalto and Neuquén basins (Patagonia, Argentina): review of middle to upper jurassic continental and near coastal sequences

In this review, we include several proxies (sedimentology, palynology, invertebrates) from the Cañadón Asfalto and Neuquén basins, to infer the environments and regional climatic context during the Middle to Late Jurassic of Patagonia. In central Patagonia, early in the Middle Jurassic, and associated with a magmatic arc, began the sedimentary fi lling of Jurassic continental sub-basins in the Cañadón Asfalto Basin. Lacustrine and fl uvio-deltaic sediments, bearing a continental Middle Jurassic palynobiota, correspond to the Las Chacritas Member, while the sediments and palynobiota from the Late Jurassic Puesto Almada Member (both in the Cañadón Asfalto Formation) indicate a palustrine wetland subenvironment immersed within an arid macroenvironment. Paleoinvertebrates (conchostracans and sponges) of this formation suggest wet-dry cycles in the water bodies they inhabited. The sedimentological information together with the continental and coastal palynomorph assemblages of the back arc Neuquén Basin, allowed distinguishing a complete regressive-transgressive sequence for the Middle Jurassic Lajas Formation. For the Upper Jurassic in this basin, the thick gypsum and anhydrite deposits of the evaporitic coastal Auquilco Formation correlate with extended deposits of eolian sandstones corresponding to the Botucatú paleodesert, and a saltmarsh environment is inferred from the palynofl ora. The palynologic associations from both basins indicate a regional warm climate with seasonal aridity. Climatic conditions would have been drier in the continental interior (Cañadón Asfalto Basin), with strongly seasonally distributed temperatures, and moister in the western coast of the continent (Neuquén Basin), during the marine transgressions.Na presente revisão foram incluídos vários proxies (sedimentologia, palinologia, invertebrados), das bacias de Cañadón Asfalto e Neuquén, para inferir o contexto climático regional e ambiental durante o Jurássico Médio e Superior da Patagônia. Na região central da Patagônia, no início do Jurássico Médio, e associado a um arco magmático, começou o preenchimento sedimentar de sub-bacias continentais jurássicas na bacia Cañadón Asfalto. Os sedimentos flúvio-deitaico e lacustres, tendo uma palinobiota continental do Jurássico Médio correspondente ao Membro Las Chacritas, enquanto os sedimentos e a palinobiota do Jurássico Superior do Membro Puesto Almada (ambos na Formação Cañadón Asfalto) indicam um subambiente palustre úmido imerso em um macroambiente árido. Os paleoinvertebrados (conchostráceos e esponjas) desta formação sugerem ciclos úmidos-secos nos corpos de água por eles habitados. A informação sedimentológica juntamente com as assembleias de palinomorfos continentais e costeiros do “back arc” da bacia Neuquén permitiu distinguir uma sequência completa regressiva-transgressiva para o Jurássico Médio da Formação Lajas. Para o Jurássico Superior, os depósitos de anidrita e gesso espessos da Formação Auquilco costeira evaporítica correlacionam-se com depósitos extensos de arenitos eólicos correspondentes ao paleodeserto Botucatu. Um ambiente “saltmarsh” é inferido a partir da palinoflora. As associações palinológicas de ambas as bacias indicam um clima regional quente com aridez sazonal. As condições climáticas teriam sido mais secas no interior continental (bacia Cañadón Asfalto), com temperaturas fortemente distribuídas de forma sazonal, e úmidas na costa ocidental do continente (bacia de Neuquén), durante as transgressões marinhas.Fil: Volkheimer, Wolfang. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Quattrocchio, Mirta Elena. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Geología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Cabaleri, Nora Graciela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Geocronología y Geología Isotopica. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Geocronología y Geología Isotópica; ArgentinaFil: Narvaez, Paula Liliana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Rosenfeld, U.. Westfälische Wilhelms-universität Münster; AlemaniaFil: Scafati, Laura Haydee. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales ; ArgentinaFil: Melendi, Daniel Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales ; Argentin

Self-testing with finite statistics enabling the certification of a quantum network link

Self-testing is a method to certify devices from the result of a Bell test. Although examples of noise tolerant self-testing are known, it is not clear how to deal efficiently with a finite number of experimental trials to certify the average quality of a device without assuming that it behaves identically at each run. As a result, existing self-testing results with finite statistics have been limited to guarantee the proper working of a device in just one of all experimental trials, thereby limiting their practical applicability. We here derive a method to certify through self-testing that a device produces states on average close to a Bell state without assumption on the actual state at each run. Thus the method is free of the I.I.D. (independent and identically distributed) assumption. Applying this new analysis on the data from a recent loophole-free Bell experiment, we demonstrate the successful distribution of Bell states over 398 meters with an average fidelity of $\geq$55.50% at a confidence level of 99%. Being based on a Bell test free of detection and locality loopholes, our certification is evidently device-independent, that is, it does not rely on trust in the devices or knowledge of how the devices work. This guarantees that our link can be integrated in a quantum network for performing long-distance quantum communications with security guarantees that are independent of the details of the actual implementation.Comment: 7+10 pages, 2+3 figures, 1 tabl

Strong Precipitation Suppression by Aerosols in Marine Low Clouds

The adjustment of cloud amount to aerosol effects occurs to a large extent in response to the aerosol effect on precipitation. Here the marine boundary layer clouds were studied by analyzing the dependence of rain intensity measured by Global Precipitation Measurement on cloud properties. We showed that detectable rain initiates when the drop effective radius at the cloud top (re) exceeds 14 μm, and precipitation is strongly suppressed with increasing cloud drop concentration (Nd), which contributes to the strong dependence of cloud amount on aerosols. The rain rate increases sharply with cloud thickness (CGT) and re when re > 14 μm. The dependence of rain rate on re and CGT presents a simple framework for precipitation susceptibility to aerosols, which explains other previously observed relationships. We showed that sorting data by CGT and using alternative cloud condensation nuclei proxy rather than aerosol optical depth are critical for studying aerosol‐cloud‐precipitation interactions.Plain Language SummaryAerosol‐cloud interaction remains the greatest uncertainty in future climate projection. Precipitation is a key process that mediates how the cloud amount responds to aerosol perturbations. Here we combined precipitation measured by the radar onboard the satellite of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and cloud properties retrieved from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard Aqua satellite for studying the dependence of rain intensity on cloud properties for marine boundary layer water clouds over the Southern Hemisphere Ocean. Our results showed that rain is sharply intensified when droplets at the cloud top grow larger than 14 μm, and precipitation decreases with increasing cloud drop number concentration (Nd). A simple framework to explain the relationship between precipitation and aerosols is proposed here by showing the dependence of precipitation on Nd and cloud geometric thickness. We also discussed why using aerosol optical depth (AOD) as CCN proxy in previous studies could lead to great uncertainties and why sorting cloud geometrical thickness is necessary.Key PointsPrecipitation is strongly suppressed with increasing cloud drop concentrationSorting data by cloud thickness and using alternative CCN proxy rather than AOD are critical for studying aerosol‐cloud interactionsDetectable rain initiates when the drop effective radius at the cloud top exceeds 14 μmPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154630/1/grl60407.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154630/2/grl60407_am.pd