Data sources for rescuing the rich heritage of Mediterranean historical surface climate data

10.1002/gdj3.4Availability of long-term and high-quality instrumental climate records is still insufficient and the rich heritage of meteorological surface observations is largely underexploited in many parts of the world. This is particularly striking over the Greater Mediterranean region (GMR), where meteorological observations have been taken since the 18th century at some locations. The lack of high quality and long series here is despite this region being regarded as a climate change hot spot. This article mainly assesses relevant sources containing Mediterranean historical climate data and metadata either from online repositories worldwide or physical archives, with the emphasis here on the rich holdings kept at French archives. A particular case study is the data rescue (DARE) program undertaken by the Algerian National Meteorological Service, as well as some of the past and ongoing projects and initiatives aimed at enhancing climate data availability and accessibility over the GMR. Our findings point to the high potential for undertaking DARE activities over the GMR and the need for bringing longer and higher quality climate time series to support a diverse number of scientific and technical assessments and policies

Multidecadal Signal of Solar Variability in the Upper Troposphere During the 20th Century

Studies based on data from the past 25-45 years show that irradiance changes related to the 11-yr solar cycle affect the circulation of the upper troposphere in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The signal has been interpreted as a northward displacement of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell with increasing solar irradiance. In model studies on the 11-yr solar signal this could be related to a weakening and at the same time broadening of the Hadley circulation initiated by stratospheric ozone anomalies. Other studies, focusing on the direct thermal effect at the Earth's surface on multidecadal scales, suggest a strengthening of the Hadley circulation induced by an increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In this paper we analyse the solar signal in the upper troposphere since 1922, using statistical reconstructions based on historical upper-air data. This allows us to address the multidecadal variability of solar irradiance, which was supposedly large in the first part of the 20th century. Using a simple regression model we find a consistent signal on the 11-yr time scale which fits well with studies based on later data. We also find a significant multidecadal signal that is similar to the 11-yr signal, but somewhat stronger. We interpret this signal as a poleward shift of the subtropical jet and the Ferrel cell. Comparing the magnitude of the two signals could provide important information on the feedback mechanisms involved in the solar climate relationship with respect to the Hadley and Ferrel circulations. However, in view of the uncertainty in the solar irradiance reconstructions, such interpretations are not currently possibl

Successful Booster Antibody Response up to 54 Months after Single Primary Vaccination with Virosome-Formulated, Aluminum-Free Hepatitis A Vaccine

This study demonstrates that a booster dose of the virosome-formulated, aluminum-free hepatitis A vaccine Epaxal (Berna Biotech) is highly immunogenic in subjects who received a single primary dose of this vaccine 18-54 months earlier. There were no significant differences in geometric mean antibody titers (GMTs) among subjects who received the booster dose 18-29 months (GMT, 2330 mIU/mL), 30-41 months (GMT, 2395 mIU/mL), or 42-54 months (GMT, 2432 mIU/mL) after primary vaccination, indicating that delays in the administration of booster vaccination do not lead to a loss of immunogenicit

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS <i>Planet</i> on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS <i>Schwabenland</i> on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions

Strong-disorder renormalization for interacting non-Abelian anyon systems in two dimensions

We consider the effect of quenched spatial disorder on systems of interacting, pinned non-Abelian anyons as might arise in disordered Hall samples at filling fractions \nu=5/2 or \nu=12/5. In one spatial dimension, such disordered anyon models have previously been shown to exhibit a hierarchy of infinite randomness phases. Here, we address systems in two spatial dimensions and report on the behavior of Ising and Fibonacci anyons under the numerical strong-disorder renormalization group (SDRG). In order to manage the topology-dependent interactions generated during the flow, we introduce a planar approximation to the SDRG treatment. We characterize this planar approximation by studying the flow of disordered hard-core bosons and the transverse field Ising model, where it successfully reproduces the known infinite randomness critical point with exponent \psi ~ 0.43. Our main conclusion for disordered anyon models in two spatial dimensions is that systems of Ising anyons as well as systems of Fibonacci anyons do not realize infinite randomness phases, but flow back to weaker disorder under the numerical SDRG treatment.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures, 1 tabl

Effect of different warm-up strategies on simulated laparoscopy performance: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this trial was to assess which type of warm-up has the highest effect on virtual reality (VR) laparoscopy performance. The following warm-up strategies were applied: a hands-on exercise (group 1), a cognitive exercise (group 2), and no warm-up (control, group 3). DESIGN: This is a 3-arm randomized controlled trial. SETTING: The trial was conducted at the department of surgery of the University Hospital Basel in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 94 participants, all laypersons without any surgical or VR experience, completed the study. RESULTS: A total of 96 participants were randomized, 31 to group 1, 31 to group 2, and 32 to group 3. There were 2 postrandomization exclusions. In the multivariate analysis, we found no evidence that the intervention had an effect on VR performance as represented by 6 calculated subscores of accuracy, time, and path length for (1) camera manipulation and (2) hand-eye coordination combined with 2-handed maneuvers (p = 0.795). Neither the comparison of the average of the intervention groups (groups 1 and 2) vs control (group 3) nor the pairwise comparisons revealed any significant differences in VR performance, neither multivariate nor univariate. VR performance improved with increasing performance score in the cognitive exercise warm-up (iPad 3D puzzle) for accuracy, time, and path length in the camera navigation task. CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to show an effect of the 2 tested warm-up strategies on VR performance in laypersons. We are currently designing a follow-up study including surgeons rather than laypersons with a longer warm-up exercise, which is more closely related to the final task

ModE-Sim – a medium-sized atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) ensemble to study climate variability during the modern era (1420 to 2009)

We introduce ModE-Sim (Modern Era SIMulations), a medium-sized ensemble of simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 in its LR (low-resolution) version (T63; approx. 1.8∘ horizontal grid width with 47 vertical levels). At the lower boundary we use prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice that reflect observed values while accounting for uncertainties in these. Furthermore we use radiative forcings that also reflect observed values while accounting for uncertainties in the timing and strength of volcanic eruptions. The simulations cover the period from 1420 to 2009. With 60 ensemble members between 1420 and 1850 and 36 ensemble members from 1850 to 2009, ModE-Sim consists of 31 620 simulated years in total. ModE-Sim is suitable for many applications as its various subsets can be used as initial-condition and boundary-condition ensembles to study climate variability. The main intention of this paper is to give a comprehensive description of the experimental setup of ModE-Sim and to provide an evaluation, mainly focusing on the two key variables, 2 m temperature and precipitation. We demonstrate ModE-Sim's ability to represent their mean state, to produce a reasonable response to external forcings, and to sample internal variability. Through the example of heat waves, we show that the ensemble is even capable of capturing certain types of extreme events.</p

Causes of climate change over the historical record

This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions covering the recent few centuries to the 20th century, and instrumental data shows how greenhouse gases began to cause warming since the beginning of industrialization, causing trends that are attributable to greenhouse gases by 1900 in proxy-based temperature reconstructions. Their influence increased over time, dominating recent trends. However, other forcings have caused substantial deviations from this emerging greenhouse warming trend: volcanic eruptions have caused strong cooling following a period of unusually heavy activity, such as in the early 19th century; or warming during periods of low activity, such as in the early-to-mid 20th century. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing most likely masked some global greenhouse warming over the 20th century, especially since the accelerated increase in sulphate aerosol emissions starting around 1950. Based on modelling and attribution studies, aerosol forcing has also influenced regional temperatures, caused long-term changes in monsoons and imprinted on Atlantic variability. Multi-decadal variations in atmospheric modes can also cause long-term climate variability, as apparent for the example of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and have influenced Atlantic ocean variability. Long-term precipitation changes are more difficult to attribute to external forcing due to spatial sparseness of data and noisiness of precipitation changes, but the observed pattern of precipitation response to warming from station data supports climate model simulated changes and with it, predictions. The long-term warming has also led to significant differences in daily variability as, for example, visible in long European station data. Extreme events over the historical record provide valuable samples of possible extreme events and their mechanisms